Livdoc44

Fair point, like I said it was one major pressure but also not the only major pressure. I do wonder if the USSR could not have reinvented itself much in the same way communist China did?  It was a flawed system however clearly when allowed to evolve somewhat can, and does work in a sense.  Of course the heart of the thing is current hemorrhaging all over Ukraine so the odds of enlightened evolution look to be slim in hindsight.
I do think the other military contribution to the USSRs defeat was containment.  Like Nazi Germany the USSR only theoretically “worked” if it was able to continually expand, pulling in more and more resources to feed the corrupt bloated monster.  Expansion was key to its survival and that was blunted and compressed a lot by western military affairs in concert with other elements of power.   
Looking forward, after this war, we are going to have a very sore Russia with less to lose - assuming it survives the landing.  China continues to rise while running out of soft/smart/sharp power runway to fuel its expansion, while it also deals with internal frictions and sore spots.  There will likely be an acceleration of the Outsiders club in pulling away from the West and pulling in more members.  This will not be a repeat of the Cold War but instead be something far more insidious and vicious I suspect.  Hard choices are in front of us, this war in Ukraine was the first real one and I am heartened to see we appear to have passed the test, at least so far.

I have to say...and this is coming from the center left...that a lot of the antifa folks in DC were completely obnoxious. The BLM folks were what we would call around here 'good protesters'. They did their thing, acted coherently and didn't randomly attack whatever for the thrill of it...the burning of the lobby of the AFL-CIO being a particularly egregious example of the tendency to burn for the fun of it tendency of some of the Antifa folks. A lot of them looked like teenagers burning off covid isolation.
But...neither one had anything like the sheer nastiness of the radical right wingers. Patches like RWDS (that stands for "Right Wing Death Squad") and Confederate flags were routine and far more common than outright Nazi regalia. People telling my neighbors with a pride flag at their house that they "will come back for you later". Or the 100 or so Proud Boys that charged a police line my kid and I were behind because they were trying to get at BLM folks on the plaza on 16th Street behind us. Oh...and did I mention the guys with the long guns that got arrested at one of my places of business?
We got to see the monster with it's mask off...because they were sure that they were going to get a pardon sooner or later as they would tell DC MPD who had to deal with them...and I would strongly suggest you all take it seriously. Out of patriotism if nothing else. Nobody benefits more from it than Vladimir Putin.

Thanks super useful in trying to get my head around somethings happening in America and even here in the UK 

Putin: how 3-day SMO is going?
Shoigu: Russians are advancing!
Putin: Where?
Shoigu: to Belgorod

And what is the quality of those new systems?  Given shortages in tech supply within Russia these systems will likely have issues with guidance systems and flight controls.  They will be then plugged into a 3rd rate ISR architecture that is being eroded as well.  Which is plugged into a Command and Control system that was a mess to start with.
This is what it looks like when organized crime tries to fight a conventional war.  
We have been watching the one-way erosion of the RA for over a year now.  The symptoms of systemic failure are written on the walls, underlined and bolded.  I am getting a growing sense that the upcoming collapse may be spectacular.
All war is communication, and Russia has been sending out signals of failure since this thing began.  All war is violent, but it has to be effective violence.  Simply doing disconnected or ineffective violence only reinforces an opponents resolve because they get angry, not despondent. You never create a curve they feel they are falling behind.  Russia has been a testament to ineffective violence in this war - it has not been focused or connected, a flailing windmill of murder and rage that looks scary for the first few seconds and then everyone realizes it is in fact a seizure.
Russia has already lost this war, they likely already know it.  We have already won it, but some refuse to see it.  All that remains is how do we end it?

The difference between these two images fills me with hope for the future of Ukraine after this war.

The implications of Patriots being able to handle a complex, dense attack of pretty much everything Russia has contains strategic implications that go far beyond the war in Ukraine. Chinese calculations about Taiwan were just revised negatively yet again. 

Remember when everyone was all a twitter about Russian escalation dominance?  Interestingly, and something I never considered, denial is a form of escalation.  In hindsight it is obvious, denial compresses an opponent options spaces - very effectively as it turns out.  It also neutralizes an opponents ability to escalate.
Russia earned this one with all of its terror missile attacks, however in the end the West held the escalation high ground…and still does.  A whole lot of this war has been us relearning that we are indeed powerful, very powerful as it turns out.  We kept seeing the nightmares in Russia but I think we are slowly realizing that we are the nightmares.  (Nod to Chuck Norris I believe).

This made me smile, but is also perhaps a little cautionary.
 
Comments are worth a read as well
 

Read back over the many many posts here. They quote Russian politicians, Western politicians, Ukrainian politicians, Belarussian politicians, the New York Times, the Guardian, Russian TV, Pentagon officials, Kremlin officials, think tank papers, generals in the field on both sides, foot soldiers in the field on both sides, manufacturers, activists, historians, economists, satellite imagery and close combat footage, history books involving similar conflicts, they cover the granular detail of individual combat as well as geopolitical fallout. If this is viewing the war 'through a keyhole' its a mighty mighty big keyhole. Basically the only source not cited here is... uh... Brietbart, (if Brietbart still exists).

So not to pile on and beat up.  I get the position, video after video of Russian saps getting blown up may seem excessive and masturbatory, and for some it is. However, every video gives off information. Some is just noise, or repetitive.  While others are gold and constitute key indicators which when confirmed by other observations can point to trends.  Trends lead to broader deductions and assessments - this is not a single “keyhole” it is thousands of them.  In most keyholes the milk maid is bathing, but then you start to notice the copy of Karl Marx next to the tub.
ISW and other OS intelligence analysts are doing exactly what professional military are doing.  Looking at all the “war porn” and pulling out trends and indicators that tell a larger story.  Oryx is not counting blow up vehicles because people get their jollies seeing blown up Russian tanks.  They are doing it because individual losses sum up to larger attrition trend which chart the course of a conflict.
This is micro-analysis and has pretty much set this group apart - or did, other groups have caught up.  Example: back in the early days of the war the majority of open source assessment (and frankly military as well) were expecting this war to take a predictable course.  A rapid overwhelming Russian invasion, shock and collapse of the UA, and a drawn out insurgency against a puppet Ukrainian political regime.  It was places like this forum where micro-observation first challenged a lot of macro assumptions.  We saw war porn, but it added up to something going very wrong for the RA.  In fact it pointed to something even more fundamental shifting in warfare itself.
This was not a one-shot deal.  Micro-analysis backed up be expertise has kept us well ahead of the pack in all phases of this war.  Phase II did not become a protracted set of urban sieges - the RA logistical losses and Ukrainian resistance demonstrated that.  Phase III did not see an RA “cauldron” despite their use of WW1 levels of massed fires.  Phase IV the UA counter offensive did shock us at its scope but one could see that this was indeed a collapse of the RA operationally on two fronts (one slow, one fast).  Phase V - Op Russian Leg Humping: was going nowhere - one need only follow the famous “battle of the T” to see why.  And we will use it for Phase VI to try and understand how the UA offensive is unfolding.
So while some may only see Russian sods getting blown up.   I see: poor basic field craft in poorly constructed trench lines which suggest basic training shortfalls.  No effective C-UAS counter measures on the RA side.    The evolution of drone warfare throughout.  The big fact that Russia has still not been able to create information denial (let alone control) in the battle space. HVT losses within the Russian operational system - C2 nodes, A2AD platforms, engineering and logistics.  Failures in RA C4ISR…the list goes on.  I do not see this through a single war porn keyhole, I see them through thousands of them.
Are these view’s skewed?  Definitely.  But the fact that we do not see thousand of videos of Russian UAS blowing off UA heads is telling in itself (does anyone think the Russian info sphere would show any restraint in this?).  Open source is “open”.  In the end it is about filtering noise and trying to hear signal - and again, this is exactly what ISW or any other public analysis platform is doing, along with professional military.  We are just doing it in house - this is how the sausage is made.  What bakes my noodle is that in my lifetime a large virtual collective is able to conduct this sort of work, and demonstrate accurate assessments (more than just a lucky once or twice) is game changing.  
In twenty years we will all be old, senile or dead. However an another group of young(ish) folks will do this for another war but they will likely have AI support (we have already seen it here in its infancy).  They will have access to even more raw information but will have a better ability to use it - they may very well be directly involved in the prosecution of the war and not just sitting in chairs on the sideline.  We are at the beginning of an age of Open Source Warfare - all those keyholes are “pixels” in reality.

So just so we are clear here. A drone attack that hurt no one but Putin's ego during a time of war that may or may not have even been launched by Ukraine, is a horrible terrorist attack . However, Russia killing 20+ Ukrainian civilians near Kherson today is just business as usual according to Russia.
This is why I'm for sending Ukraine F-16s and ATACMS.

You really can if one is trying to negotiate towards a workable victory.  I think what a lot of pundits are missing is that the West (US in particular) need Russia to lose - just enough.  This drives an incremental approach of slow eroding pressure as opposed to a coherent campaign plan that sees Russia tossed back over the border completely by X date.
As of today and the pending Ukrainian offensive the risk from a western perspective is not Ukraine doing enough, it is doing too much or going too far.  I disagree with the idea that Russia can sustain a 5 year war.  It ignores the main principle of corrosive warfare which is eroding an opponents operational system faster and better than they can repair it.  Russian forces would need a serious inject of external support to shore up its failing system.  So unless China steps in and gets really serious about reestablishing a level of symmetry, Russian is on the wrong end of a devolution curve.  
In the 21st century one cannot simply stuff ill-trained and I’ll-supported troops in holes and hold ground.  Not if your LOCs remain in clear view and actionable ranges.  Your armor is blunted, your AirPower denied and your guns are wearing out.  We are about to see how well a conventional defence hold up under these conditions and my bet is “not well”.
The risk of Ukraine over-reach is not small.  It could create shock and panic at political levels in Russia, and those conditions are when major mistakes start being made. This entire thing has hallmarks of threading a pretty tricky strategic needle.  It may feel good to see ATACMS hammering everything in depth but it could lead to an uncontrollable Russian collapse, which we have discussed at length, and clearly regardless of our opinions this is a serious concern to those in political leadership in the West.
To summarize - slow motion collapse with off-ramps = good.  Uncontrolled collapse in a suicidal game of chicken = bad.  The strategy we are seeing is aligned with the first one.
The_Capt’s second axiom - “strategy must not only encompass a theory of one’s own victory, it must also encompass a theory of an opponents defeat.”

You know the more I think about this the angrier I get.  This is an egregious double standard against Ukraine coming from the “experts”.
The course of this war for Russia - 
I will invade and crush you…fail
Ok, now I will create 20 sieges and crush you…fail.
Ok, getting serious now.  I will WW1 blast you in the South - we really only wanted that anyway, create cauldrons and crush you…fail.
Ok, ok, you asked for this, I will create multiple Stalingrads on defence and you will die trying to take your country back…fail.
Alright you have really ticked me off now, prepare for human waves and a winter offensive…fail.
That is it!  I am all out of patience and now you are in for it.  Prepare to die on the Putin Line!  (And western pundits are buying into it)
Meanwhile “Ukraine is barely hanging on and maybe we should rethink about support because they have not driven the RA into the sea yet.”  I mean c’mon, with friends like these…

There is a point on the circle where the far-left and far-right meet and this is pretty close to it.  The mechanics are the same, connect a whole bunch of phenomena, many of them that are in isolation of each other - e.g. homelessness and MKUltra.  Then tie them together with logic strings to create a unifying construct - in this case Western Satan.
The problem is that 1) many of these phenomena are in fact disconnected as there are no star chambers just people being mean to other people - the red scare violations of human rights is not in the same bin as lynchings.  2) the fact that anyone has access to these historical examples and can openly cite them is proof against a massive oppressive western regime that spans generations, and 3) completely misses all the good and right these western systems have done, worse dismisses it as social background radiation when in fact it was the main effort.
This method is a sort of reverse social contrasting because all one is seeing are the lynchings, CIA plots, cop shootings and homeless.  If one stares at that long enough it is easy to believe that is the core and not indeed the background radiation of macro-social evolution in the western world.  There are societies where these sorts of activities were far more central to maintaining order and control as has been noted.  They do not complain about police brutality and cite internet stories to back them up in North Korea because they are living in a truly brutal dictatorship.
I have worked defence and security my entire adult life - there is not massive conspiracy led by the far [insert villain] trying to control you through a weird Goldberg-esque complicated scheme. There is a government trying to keep 300+ million primates wired for fear response from killing each other.  While at the same time trying to keep the other 7.7 billion scared primates from either killing you, or each other too fast.  The good news is that this “sinister and highly corrupt system” has essentially worked.  We are better off now than we have ever been in history.  Do not believe me?  Google stuff like child mortality or literacy, or healthcare.  You wanna talk “big unfair prisons” do some research on the 19th century legal system.  
People are not “seeing the matrix” in spite of nasty government control, they are seeing it because of government protections - as imperfect as they may be.

One of the 'interesting' findings is that (some of) the worst of these units where 'ordinary men' (yes I have that book) mostly consisting of small boring village policemen with, probably, some power fantasies which turned into killing machines. 

My take after 6 months peacekeeping in Bosnia in '93 -  Savagery is baked into human beings.  Sorry, there is no 'better angels of our nature'  My time in Bosnia dispelled that myth real quick.  The 'better angels of our nature' happens because we employ the frontal cortex to govern ourselves.  But warfare is very primal and hits the primitive emotional centers of our brains first.   Once that happens, the excesses of violence humans are capable of know no bounds.  Which is why in the 22nd century in the future, historians and people will be examining the genocides of the 21st century and asking the same questions.

Ukraine 2014. Very serious list.

I think history has shown you are destined for disappointment.

To me, someone who enjoys playing quick battles H2H or creating scenarios with unique forces, the vehicle pack has been great fun. If you find and download some of the community made content or modify some of the existing scenarios, you will have hours of fun and enjoyment. 
As for value, how much do you play CMBN? If you look at the price of the pack on a cost per hour of entertainment basis, the pack will cost you less than a movie ticket with a drink and popcorn. The movie is over in a couple of hours and you are probably going to be looking for another bite to eat. Whereas the vehicle pack will still be there ready to entertain hour after hour, week after week, month after month, year after year.

"just wanted to inform some of his friends about what’s going on"
 I've seen this a couple times and it seems to be put forward as almost an excuse. What a crock.
It's been 2 years, but I'd say this is not just on him. There is something in the overall classified info handling of the organization that is not working, and lax. Where I was there were so many controls:
a. The entire floor I worked on was a classified repository. No phones, no cameras, no recording devices, no smartwatches, no iPods - nothing with ANY memory of any kind allowed past the combo lock door. There were small lockers outside in the elevator lobby. Everyone had their own assigned to lock up their stuff and there were a bunch for visitors - drop your stuff, take the key. 
b. Inside that Closed Area (that's what it's called), classified computers are in a separate room you have to have access to.
    1.  It's physically impossible to write anything to CD/DVD or USB.
    2. There is a printer, and you can print out things, and you have to log into the printer and it logs the files that are printed, which is routinely audited.
    3. The computer system is routinely (like weekly) audited and if you had tried to access something that you don't have access to, questions will be asked. Most of the time it's innocent. You actually did need to look up something but don't have access to something that you really did need. So you have to put in a request. Your department manager has sign off on it certifying you have a need to know.
    4. If you for some reason DO need something written to CD/DVD there is a group of about 5 people in the company who will do that and provide it, again, requested and management approval. No one else can even physically do it, let alone by rules.
All of the above is for up to Confidential-Restricted Data (Restricted Data is nuclear information, whether propulsion or weapons).
For Secret and Top Secret, there is a separate Closed Area INSIDE the Closed Area. There is a two man rule. Again, NOTHING with any memory allowed inside. Nothing can leave. If you take something out of a file, it either has to be returned and logged back in, or destroyed. You cannot take anything inside to make notes with. There is marked papers inside to make notes and it stays inside.
For disposal, there are burn bags for media, and bins for shredding. The shredding is by an outside contractor, but the locked bins (Like curbside trash bins) are brought to the back door and security watches as they are loaded into the truck sized shredder.
At the door/gate, you can bring in a lunchbox and on the way home it will be checked (randomly). 
I'll stop here, but as you can see, there has to be a significant breakdown in the implementation of procedures for someone to create a security breach like this.  I thought a little context on how it's SUPPOSED to be done might be useful.  Everyone where I worked took security very seriously.  
I'd wager there is more to come after a thorough review of the organization's security procedures. We may or may not hear much about that, unless it's discovered he had active accomplices.
One caveat - this is all where I worked or visited (national labs). The problems at the White House are different. It's obvious from what has happened these last several years that security procedures are "different" there. Rules for thee and not for me.

Dave

I thought it was
"LEEEroooooy JENKinnnnnns!"?

Now, now this gentleman has presented a very coherent strategy on how to decisively lose the next Cold War/strategic competition.  This will guarantee a US hard power contraction, which means soft power will be right behind it - I mean why invest in the US on many levels if they refuse to actually “get involved”? What value is US diplomacy if security means America only?  This is right up the alley of a certain political figure that it could be ripped from one of his speeches. 
And into these vacuums other powers are going to quickly pivot - they already have.  With their increased influence investment in the US will start to dry up - deals will be cut to ensure it, as will supply chains and consumption.  In a few years the US dollar will no longer be the global reserve currency.  This will pretty much set up the West for fracture as Europe will figure out pretty quick that it has been largely abandoned to its own devices.  A whole lotta nations in the Indo-Pac are going to also bail.
I mean the logical extension of Step 1 is China can invade Taiwan, North Korea into South Korea, India and Pakistan can totally blow up.  Screw Ukraine. Russia can pretty much do whatever it wants. US out of NATO - because that entire thing rides on allied intervention, so Europe is on its own. 5 EYES is gone.  Forget global cooperation on trans-regional crime and terrorism because unless it happens in the US - “not our problem”.
In fact this is so monumentally stupid that of course people who are looking for easy answers in a very complex and frightening world are gravitating towards it.  I mean the entire deal that keeps the US on top  is built in global stability backed not only by the US dollar but also carrier groups - so it is entirely logical that if you pull those groups back and let them float only 200 miles off the US coastline that US global influence will remain extant.  The US can probably drastically reduce defence spending and focus on building walls though.
Here is a crazy idea: if the US does not step up and in to keep some sort of order on this planet, someone else will. The US does not get to withdraw into fortress North America (while choking out immigration with a declining birth rate) and remain a global economic superpower.  Hard power backs soft- that US dollar as much as whatever the US is selling (or more importantly, buying).  At least 3 generations of Americans had that one figured out, but now for some reason people have totally forgotten.  
Regardless, thankfully these complete amateurs are not running the show, yet.
 

Maybe it's because I'm too idealistic, but all this all this "the US should not involve itself" is just a fancy way of saying "oooh, there's a horrible going on, let's just watch and not do anything".
How can someone look at Bucha and the Mariopol and kidnapping children and whatever else and say that?
No matter how you spin it, it is such a heartless position and always will be. How can someone say this and live with themselves?
I will never understand.

this is getting really old and is a complete derailment of the thread.  Unless you think Ukraine has no right to decide its own future what the heck are you going on about?
If you do feel that Ukraine has no right to make any decision on its future that Russia does not approve of then go somewhere else.
Enough already.  Calling the Ukrainian fight to defend its right to self-determination from a barbaric aggressor state "choosing to become a party to various and sundry conflicts" is insulting to all our Ukrainian members of this forum who are currently part of a fight to defend their country's right to exist.