Livdoc44

Even weirder?
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66023631
 
I took some time to look better at the available footage of the "mutiny" to check if I really saw what I thought I saw.
Compared to every other uprising, coup, mutiny and/or civil unrest I read about, saw pictures or camera-footage of, or heard witnesses/participants talk about, the Wagner-advance seemed to show a remarkable lack of stress, chaos and apprehension.
To me this whole thing looked more like an ADHDfilled teenager-schooltrip, than an "everyone's future and lives are very much at stake" high-stress occurence.
Prigozjin is looking remarkable relaxed throughout, which is quite a change from his earlier recent appearances. He is laying his life on the line, not only because of the "failure means death"-probabilty, but if there would be any resistance against this mutiny, he would be the prime target. But he, and his entourage, are all the time behaving like it is a walk in the park.
And look at the way most of the troops behave. Do they act like they expect enemy fire? Are they using every bit of cover while advancing? Are they nervously looking out for snipers or armor? Does it look like they expect any resistance at all? No, they go for coffee and food, sit very relaxed on parkbenches and cafe-terraces, stroll as if they know there will be no resistance. Very strange, especially when you realise that a lot of those soldiers recently were in combat at heavily contested frontlines, which tends to make anyone pretty anxious and alert in an urban situation where enemy fire can be expected any minute.
 
Every other coup or mutiny (etc) had camera-footage and reports that show chaos, excitement and confusion. People being very nervous/agitated. Adjutants, security-guys, messengers and officers, all running around and looking around and gesticulating and a lot of yelling and shouting going on. A continuous reporting and updating of enemy positions, resistance-levels, progression of advancing friendly units, news from the rest of the country, and so on.
I did not see that on a level that I would expect in a "mutiny" that was so sudden, so big and so powerful as this one. Not at all. While the possible, or likely, enemy force could be enormous.
Even when things were unfolding it almost looked to me as if, at least a big part of, the mutineers knew, or at least suspected, that there would be no real resistance.
Maybe they had perfect intel? Maybe it was Wagner self-confidence? Trusting in being lucky? Or, very possible, is my comparison with other mutinies and uprisings wrong?
I don't know what happend, but the fact that even 'Steve" and "TheCAPT" were uniquely shocked, proofs to me that this was one of the weirdest mutinies, and mutiny-endings, EVER.
 

That is a helluva theory.  “A force capable of dislodging him from Rostov”.  That is an urban area of 1.1 million.  If he decided to dig in even with a few thousand he could have Fallujah-ed it likely for weeks.  He had enough troops to insurgency things for months while controlling the freakin RA logistical backfield.  Wagner not only had the means, they had the position…they were dominating the RAs interior lines largely unopposed. 
I do not think it was threat of military force that backed him down, he already crossed that threshold when they started shooting down RUAF assets.  The guy had the southern theatre HQ and likely the critical node in the RA C4ISR backbone - even threatening to blow that all to hell would get people thinking twice.
Whelp, I guess in ten years we can have a Hot Thread reunion and all go “remember that weekend in Jun 23?”

Somebody should dub this.
 

I realize many of the players are drunk on power, but if I was anyone of consequence in the middle of this and they wanted me to resign, I'd say, "Sure, absolutely. No problem. You won't hear from me again. I'll be playing chess in the park."  
Bail out while you can.
Dave

Stopped checking my phone to go out and now the coup is over? I'm so confused. 
So Russia, is a riddle wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma after all... Maybe though inside a madman's mind. 

So if Putin ran to St Petersburg, anyone think it is weird he is running toward NATO borders?  Aren’t we supposed to be the root of all evils?

Putin: "I don't need ammo, I need a ride"

Obviously the most important question is how will the DLC for CM:BS in a few years handle Wagner as a Red vs Blue and a Red vs Red force?
Privately bought personal equipment mixed with Russian Army vehicles and captured Westenr stuff.
 
 

Thanks for your sterling service in keeping is udated on the craziness!

Special Mutiny Operation

Well, that escalated quickly. 
How hot is Russia gonna get?

My people!

 

Yes, but we don't know which soldiers are Russian...and which Russians, if you know what I mean. It is already dawn there by now; note probably Wagner get inside the city or at least its outskirts. 
Ok, going several hours sleep. Probably this topic will have 10 additional pages in the late morning. Keep it Real, Prig.;)

Pretty damned significant.  He could basically cut off Crimea’s back door for starters.  Which would mean all logistics would be reliant on the strategic land bridge or sea.   If he could spread the pain for enough he could severely cut off DPR/LNR - there are some corridors from the North they could try to push down.  
RA units would be in dire straights as they basically have very angry Ukrainians to the front of a very long front line, while Wagner plays merry f#ckery on what looks like about 80% of their LOCs.  Wagner would basically have them by the sustainment testicles.  
RA could not let this stand as it would severely risk collapse of their front line positions in about a week of full choke is applied.  Airstrikes are really problematic as a solution, not only because Wagner likely has AD but trying to figure out who is who on the ground gets really tricky.  
And then there is the SOF factor.  Wagner is not only “elite”, they are set up to fight like SOF which means highly distributed.  So we could see a boiling insurgency in front of the more conventional troops.  If Prig is smart he could turn this into a real play by simply threatening the entire RA in Ukraine.
Any chance him and Putin will make nice-nice and blame it on someone they can throw out a window?

Somewhat ironic that a group called Wagner is trying to pull a operation Valkyrie

This is what you get when you privatize part of your armed forces.   Ukraine might want to launch some kind of major attack somewhere.

Well...another of my old saws is that autocracies look unshakeable right up until the moment they fall apart. Clearly Prigozhin sees an opportunity or simply has no choice. What I'm waiting to see is if/when any regular army units publicly defect to his side. If that happens, pretty much anything is possible.

Speaking of shocking. FFS that's some scary ****. 

I tell my students exactly this - what has really changed and what is an anomaly?  That is the key question of this war.
I definitely have seen the power of diverse collective analysis on this forum.  In many ways the analysis here has been ahead of the professional military one, even though we have access to less information (but probably not as “less” as people think).

He's a senator which is 1/100 individuals in this country. It's pretty alarming that he would say something so stupid. If there were really that many vehicles destroyed then Russia would be posting it allll over telegram. 
7000 KIA in a week. What is this, Operation Barbarossa? Somebody call and tell this fool to read a book.  

Saved their lives.  Like,  Yknow,  what an IFV is SUPPOSED to do.
It's why killing a Bradley in CMBS is always a 2-Stage nightmare - (1) kill the Bradley, yay. Now,  Mr. Smarty Pants, (2)  kill the dispersed,  javelin armed and very much alive infantry that are angrily pouring out of it.
Go on.  
I'll wait. 

This is the problem of where we were as western militaries; we never thought this sort of war would happen again.  We have been fighting dust wars against VEOs and insurgents for nearly 20 years, before that were interventions against opponents that had all the capability and operational art of a tethered goat with learning disabilities.  So here we are neck deep into a peer-on-peer proxy war of extremely high intensity sustained combat....who would have thunk it?
So defence industry and militaries have a complex relationship.  Those on the left would have us believe it is all the corporations "being corporationy", and there is some truth to this but in reality defence industry takes signals from defence itself and invests and develops in these highlighted areas.   We highlighted "demining" and AP threats and promptly forgot all about major combat breaching operations because ISIL does not build mine belts km long.  So now we are pushing what we have into Ukraine but a lot of it is last gen and sub-optimized because we are sub-optimized for this sort of war.  The big question after this war will be where to completely re-tool and where to be more conservative.  If history is any indication, we will talk ourselves into "well it is an eastern European anomaly", "Russia Sux" and "We would do it right", so we really do not need to do major overhauls.  The European powers did the exact same thing after observing the US Civil War (except it was "America Sux") which led to that little whoopsie we call WWI.
Here is hoping we go in other directions. 

Let's talk about Maryinka and that video from 79th Brigade
I prepared a draft transcript of the first ten minutes, which covered one battle. But, in order for you to understand what is going on, I created a map and a brief summary. Obviously, despite my best efforts, I could easily misunderstand something.

UKR appears to have discovered an enemy force moving from Donetsk via road using a drone equipped with infrared imaging. There were four vehicles: one or two tanks and two or three BMPs. It's unknown where the infantry force came from; they might have dismounted from the BMPs. It appears to be an Assault group, which is usually approximately squad size, but this varies. It may begin with a strengthened squad of up to 15 soldiers, but by the time it reaches the target, there may only be 5-6 men left.
The defending UKR troops waited among the ruins. According to radio traffic, there were two to three fire teams stretched out in front. The UKR HQ directed fire teams at RU AFVs. The fire teams used RPGs to disable at least two AFVs; the remainder fled; however one fire team was hit (at least one killed, one injured). Meanwhile, an RU assault group assaulted the corner. One fire team used small arms in an attempt to pin them down, while a second fire team guided by HQ moved to assist the first and showered RU soldiers with GP-25s. After that, the UKR arty finished the job, and the lone RU survivor fled.
There are mostly three guys at HQ -  skinny bearded guy [at 00:57]. I suspect he is CO. Bulkier bearded guy [at 02:11] I suspect he is XO. He is guiding fire teams. And cleanly shaved guy [06:42] I suspect he is FIST guy.
Some observations:
Unlike the RU army, the UKR HQ does not appear to command and control fire squads. It's more like they guide and advise fire teams, although there is some degree of micromanagement - at one point, XO explicitly tells one fire team to grab AK and made aim shots like we do in CM with target order at something a unit hasn't seen yet. Both sides do not function in the traditional military configuration of platoon-company (I believe this is company headquarters). There are distributed attack teams/groups with radio links to HQ, and that's all there is to it. There is no reserve or another echelon nearby to continue the fight. This, I suppose, is due to the enormous threat of drone-adjusted arty. So, all help is a few kilometers away, and no one can come fast to help except a nearby team. Now the transcript. Please keep in mind the footage is not strictly chronological:
 

Yeah it is still early but I think I am distinctly hearing creaking noises from that shoddily built Russian house. 
freakin months of Russian gains measured in inches per body and in a week we are starting a list of liberated settlements.  My bet is Russian high command is studiously avoiding being near windows. 

Some our "armchair generals" already plan such things - to attack on the section Dniprorudne - Vasylivka, when the water will go further and the bottom will dry. 
But historically this wasn't flat place. This was a so-called "Great Meadow" - homeland of Zaporozhian Cossaks. The region of southands small rivers, creecks, tiny lakes - it in more modern times called "Dnipro plavni" - the meadows, which flooded after snow melting. 
Locals already are finding old artefacts on the bottom of reservoir. After the war it will be holiday for "dark archeologists" 
Old pistole or sawn-off rifle

Likely WWII German graves washed out by water
Wrecked vessel

The place of old bridge, I can't understand where it can be... There wasn't bridge between Nikopol and Kamyanka, only a ferry. Germans tried to build, but hadn't a time, only several concrete pierces were seen from water. 

And here is a fragment of German map for 1942 how looked this place, when water reservoir doesn't exist