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Maciej Zwolinski

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  1. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The reason is crystal clear.  44 year olds do not have many children, usually. The Ukraine has dire demographic situation and does not want to be in the position, that it survives the war but has nobody to replace the population gap. To put it crudely, it protects the breeders.
  2. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They are not emaciated, and they should not be.  Poland was willing to transfer a very significant part of our military equipment, accept a huge number of refugees, pay for Starlink terminals, act as one of the most active diplomatic supporters of the Ukraine, etc. We even took an Ukrainian SAM which killed 2 Poles and desperately tried to pretend it was Russian missile until we could not pretend anymore. But why gut a significant part of agricultural industry? That is unnecessary and a step too far.
    Especially since - as far as we know - in the Ukraine the grain export is a business of equally not emaciated and well nutritioned oligarchs and multinationals, who would like to make a better margin through cutting transportation costs and dumping the goods immediately after crossing the border. That is not a very appealing cause.
  3. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://tvn24.pl/biznes/z-kraju/polska-moze-wprowadzic-embargo-na-import-z-rosji-i-bialorusi-premier-donald-tusk-wyjasnia-st7797293
    They are analizing such situations and likely will put embargo on these imports. There are also goods imported from Belarus that were never under any sanctions, but I am unceratin if rapeseed is among them (sorry, I am in train now and can't check).
    I don't get where are you again pointing at by comparing situation of a guy living country at war and the one that is not. So local farmer going broke should actually be indeed happy, cause somebody in Africa is hungry and is in worse situation? Now that is optimistic attitude.
    Zaleban, don't start another quarrel over nothingburger please. And note I am not their spokesmen too.
    And here we go again. Should we spend another several pages to prove you that entire world didn't start, out of a sudden, to conspire against Ukraine? Which is it, 3rd or 4th? Last time you projected that Ukraine will surely fall till December, at the start of the year at the most. Now you found yourself a reason for some Dolchstoss theory?
    This is not small number of people, there is 1,3 mln households in entire country that has something to do with farming. And not, not every protest was anti-Ukrainian, not even majority; but to know this, you would need entire picture of situation, not the one oligarchic media coctail serves you now. In Augustów for example protesters on one of largest meetings put UA banners on display, in many others they underlined constantly they are not political but have no choice due to prices murdering their small business (unlike UA, farming here is not concentrated in giant holdings but chiefly small or middle business; average farmer cannot simply walk into PM office like mr. Kosjuk or mr. Verevsky). There were places where Russian stooges were kicked off, in others they were not. Public opinion is very divided over this issue (note: Russia loves this, not only external but also internal divisions); form of protests is usually condemned but not the essence- this problem of unfair prices on food products needs to be resolved sooner or later anyway. Fo new government, who has much more important things on its head (they try to fix rule of law issues left by predecessors) it is hot potato, but one you cannot simply throw back. Also no vital military or humanitarian help was blocked and decision to turn main border crossings legally under critical infastructure was actually rather bold one on Tusk' side.
    You probably don't realise, but in most places farmers are prostesting chiefly against Green Deal like everywhere in Union, with entire Ukrainian issue in the background. It all depends where you look at; note they also block not only Polish export at the borders, but also internal ways of communcation, occassionally city centers and such, which has nothing to do with Ukraine. Border is only part of the much larger problem.
    So no, heavens out of a sudden didn't fall on Ukraine's heads.  It's normal neigbour issue taking place in very bad time for you; we had dozens of such in last decade only (to put "train wars" over some tariffs that just broke before the war as example; it was still linging in first months), and society is firmly anti-Russian and mostly pro-Ukrainian still. But that doesn't mean they like to get treated like economical loosers by- always extremely pragmatic when comes to economy- Kyiv's ruling circles, and that seems to be indeed prevalent perception now. Artificial hysterias are not helpful in building solutions.
  4. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They are not emaciated, and they should not be.  Poland was willing to transfer a very significant part of our military equipment, accept a huge number of refugees, pay for Starlink terminals, act as one of the most active diplomatic supporters of the Ukraine, etc. We even took an Ukrainian SAM which killed 2 Poles and desperately tried to pretend it was Russian missile until we could not pretend anymore. But why gut a significant part of agricultural industry? That is unnecessary and a step too far.
    Especially since - as far as we know - in the Ukraine the grain export is a business of equally not emaciated and well nutritioned oligarchs and multinationals, who would like to make a better margin through cutting transportation costs and dumping the goods immediately after crossing the border. That is not a very appealing cause.
  5. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They are not emaciated, and they should not be.  Poland was willing to transfer a very significant part of our military equipment, accept a huge number of refugees, pay for Starlink terminals, act as one of the most active diplomatic supporters of the Ukraine, etc. We even took an Ukrainian SAM which killed 2 Poles and desperately tried to pretend it was Russian missile until we could not pretend anymore. But why gut a significant part of agricultural industry? That is unnecessary and a step too far.
    Especially since - as far as we know - in the Ukraine the grain export is a business of equally not emaciated and well nutritioned oligarchs and multinationals, who would like to make a better margin through cutting transportation costs and dumping the goods immediately after crossing the border. That is not a very appealing cause.
  6. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rusi report talks about a 10-day plan for invasion
    https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022
  7. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mr Murz, he dead
  8. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps
    First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2).
    Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to  "yebat", to have sex (rude).
    Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process".
    On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and  the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism".
     
  9. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps
    First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2).
    Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to  "yebat", to have sex (rude).
    Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process".
    On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and  the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism".
     
  10. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps
    First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2).
    Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to  "yebat", to have sex (rude).
    Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process".
    On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and  the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism".
     
  11. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps
    First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2).
    Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to  "yebat", to have sex (rude).
    Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process".
    On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and  the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism".
     
  12. Thanks
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from fireship4 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps
    First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2).
    Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to  "yebat", to have sex (rude).
    Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process".
    On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and  the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism".
     
  13. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Translating dolboyebism is a complex task. You need to include several steps
    First, Dolboyebism - the suffix "-ism" suggests that this is a word denoting things related to another word, in this context it would probably mean "something that a dolbayeb would do" (a hypothesis confirmed by meaningful conclusion of step 2).
    Second, "dolbayeb" is a compound word, where two parts may be distinguished: "do lba" (to the head) and "yeb". Given that we are dealing with a swear word, it may be safely assumed that "yeb" pertains to  "yebat", to have sex (rude).
    Thus we arrive at "dolbayeb" - man, with whose head someone had sex (presumably damaging it in the process) - and "dolbayebism" - "a thing so stupid, that it could be done by a man, with whose head someone had sex, damaging it in the process".
    On the Internet I found someone's translation of "dolbayeb" as "****head", which I like as it is both correct as to the meaning and  the closest ethymologically. Dolboyebism thus could be translated as "****headery" or "****headism".
     
  14. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mr Murz, he dead
  15. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Bannon in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Come on, he posted an interesting quote which happened to be said by George Patton and not celebration of George Patton. 
    Is Patton now cancelled to the effect that all his quotes are thoughtcrime? I did not get the latest memo from the Ministry of Truth, apologies.
  16. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Tissues are bourgeois inventions, comrade. Since the last 5-year plan all tissue and toilet paper factories have been retooled to make sandpaper. And better make a good stock of it while it lasts, comrade. Next year they are all switching to coarser grain.
    PS. True story from actual experience of living under "real socialism". Two things they could never produce in sufficient numbers was toilet paper and rope for baling hay. 
  17. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Come on, he posted an interesting quote which happened to be said by George Patton and not celebration of George Patton. 
    Is Patton now cancelled to the effect that all his quotes are thoughtcrime? I did not get the latest memo from the Ministry of Truth, apologies.
  18. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Come on, he posted an interesting quote which happened to be said by George Patton and not celebration of George Patton. 
    Is Patton now cancelled to the effect that all his quotes are thoughtcrime? I did not get the latest memo from the Ministry of Truth, apologies.
  19. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Sojourner in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Come on, he posted an interesting quote which happened to be said by George Patton and not celebration of George Patton. 
    Is Patton now cancelled to the effect that all his quotes are thoughtcrime? I did not get the latest memo from the Ministry of Truth, apologies.
  20. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You spelt Constantinople wrong:) I do not think that there has yet been the opportunity for Istanbul to fall, the name is in official use for less than 100 yrs.
  21. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Tissues are bourgeois inventions, comrade. Since the last 5-year plan all tissue and toilet paper factories have been retooled to make sandpaper. And better make a good stock of it while it lasts, comrade. Next year they are all switching to coarser grain.
    PS. True story from actual experience of living under "real socialism". Two things they could never produce in sufficient numbers was toilet paper and rope for baling hay. 
  22. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is a very good comparison, in that it shows that there may be different wargoals for different participants. To crudely simplify that very complex topic: UK and France wargoals included lengthy mobilisation and then defeating III Reich via a combination of blockade, strategic bombardment and positional warfare. They assumed that Poland can well be defeated in the meantime, and intended to fulfill the alliance by reinstating Poland after the final Anglo-French victory. Poles were not officially told that, though. Some Polish officers and politicians understood that just from their own analysis of the situation. But most people waited for the French to start their relief offensive after the first week of the war, and the actual expectation was that we will hold the Germans at worst at the Vistula before the French destroy the Wehrmacht from behind .
    Official position of the Ukraine being full return to legitimate borders, my hunch is that their minimum win condition is to reinstate the pre-2022 border in the south while retaining freedom to join Nato and EU. An armistice line in Donetsk and Lugansk changed in Russian's favour could probably be accepted after much wringing of hands. Now it is a moonscape anyway.
    On the other hand, some nations supporting Ukraine can have entirely different perspective on what constitutes a win. No nuclear exchange and Ukraine avoiding total subjugation, possibly.
  23. Upvote
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am hoping for that as well, but I am not sure how this could happen.
    Russian glide bombs are tossed from the distance of 50 km to front line on the Russian side. AFAIK Su 34 (and as of late also Su 24 unfortunately) approach high and fast from a direction roughly perpendicular to the frontline and at the furthest possible distance, they make the toss - pull up and release the bomb. Then they immediately reverse direction and head for home. Apart from the height and distance being higher, the technique is roughly similar to Russian helicopters tossing unguided rockets. 
    This means, that in order to counter those attacks Ukrainian aircraft would have to be able to reliably shoot down Su 34 and Su 24 on their approach flight to the bomb release point (say 70 km behind the front on the Russian side?). Assuming the Ukrainian aircraft are F-16 with AIM 120 C they theoretically could do it, the missiles having a 100 km. range. However, F-16 would be fighting from big positional disadvantage. In order to hide from RUS SAMs and air-to-air patrols, the F-16s would probably be approaching very low. Therefore, once they release the missiles they would be firing from low up, at targets first fast approaching and then fast egressing, close to the far end of AMRAAM maximum range, from the frontal aspect of the target and then in a stern chase.  Would this scenario still yield a significant enough probability of kill? I do not know, but there are a lot of factors decreasing it compared to the theoretical optimum.
    While doing this, Russian air to air patrols are a non-trivial risk factor, even now from time to time they account for Ukrainian aircraft with the R 37s. Also, while trying to hit Russians 70 km on the other side of the front, the Ukrainian F16 would have to pop up in Russian SAM envelope. In light of those risks, I do not think Ukrainians would be willing to risk their few precious F-16 if the probability of killing the glide bomb carriers is low. So I am afraid that your scenario might not happen in real life. But maybe I am wrong somewhere in this reasoning, or the Ukrainians surprise me with something. Hopefully they will. 
  24. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Tissues are bourgeois inventions, comrade. Since the last 5-year plan all tissue and toilet paper factories have been retooled to make sandpaper. And better make a good stock of it while it lasts, comrade. Next year they are all switching to coarser grain.
    PS. True story from actual experience of living under "real socialism". Two things they could never produce in sufficient numbers was toilet paper and rope for baling hay. 
  25. Like
    Maciej Zwolinski got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Come on, he posted an interesting quote which happened to be said by George Patton and not celebration of George Patton. 
    Is Patton now cancelled to the effect that all his quotes are thoughtcrime? I did not get the latest memo from the Ministry of Truth, apologies.
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