AlsatianFelix

My thoughts on how to crack it. The killers are the guns, the good L52s and good ammo paired with the good ISR. What the UA is lacking is sufficient guns with sufficient ammo to kill all the targets to then let the light forces take the ground. The ammo stocks have been eaten up so the guns they have are running on rations so there isn't much point in giving more guns now. Once the ammo production gets up then the guns can work and more guns can be given so they can attrite the defenders non stop. Pair that with the deep strike on the logistics in a relentless manner and that is how they will take back ground faster.
So in my opinion, the biggest bottleneck holding back the UA is ammo for the big guns. Then not enough guns to cover the front with sufficient ammo. While that is being solved for the drone air superiority war needs solved for. Then I think some forms of mobile warfare (maybe light and highly mobile) can take place. Maybe even get the heavies back in the game. 
Until the ammo crisis is solved we will see more of the same.

American history is a long seesaw between influx because it's good for the economy and anti-immigrant reaction when earlier waves of immigrants try to pull the ladder up behind them. Treatment of immigrants in earlier American history has at times been far worse than we are seeing now and there is already pretty much a consensus in the business world that we need the labor and consumers want the lower prices. In short, this too shall pass. 

..... Lol 
I guess this is living proof russian sewer level propaganda works?🤷 

There are five driving factors in U.S. politics right now. The first is that the balance is is close to even between the parties.  The second is the coalitions are extremely locked in, very few people actually switch sides from election to election. The winner is determined by marginal turnout differential, not anybody switching sides. Third, as The_Capt detailed exquisitely yesterday, being able to pick your own social media effectively becomes the ability to pick your own facts/reality which makes side switching even less likely. Fourth is that less locked in, less motivated voters who matter enormously at the margin just don't pay much attention to politics at all, which makes them unpredictable. Fifth and last is that the recent Supreme court decision to rip open an abortion debate most of the country thought was settled has confounded most of the first four things I just wrote. The many trillion dollar question is by how much?
Obviously i am trying to jam a book into a paragraph here, I hope it is somewhat useful.

It figures in there somewhere that Russia has not been well run for even five minutes of the last thousand years. ALL it has ever experienced is various forms bad. If you are a Russian without much knowledge or interest in the outside world it seems to be possible to shrug your shoulders and figure that yesterday was awful one way, today is terrible a different way, and and tomorrow will be worse in some new and horrible fashion. There is nothing for it but to keep on keeping on while ingesting as much vodka as possible. The people who saw it differently have emigrated or been dealt with unpleasantly. 
 

Speaking as a retired artillery officer....three other reasons to explain this:
1. They have insufficient radios and field phones to communicate with the battery command post.  
2.  The clearing in the trees is too small for proper dispersion of the guns.  Knowing that drones are sweeping treelines for targets, the russians may have chanced putting these guns into a small clearing in the middle of a forest with a trail going into the clearing for the tow vehicles.
3. They lack fire control calculators/computers to calculate fire patterns like converge, linear, etc.   The spacing looks about right for just doing a common bearing and range shoot to all guns and the spacing of the guns is about right for overlapping lethal burst patterns.

Or the Lieutenant was in the tank he shot at. Nothing like a good fragging.

The Ukrainian response to all of this "advice" should consist of one sentence. "The U.S. Air Force is welcome to show up any time." 

The reason the fighting in the south is so much harder than the fighting around Bakmuht is the mines. The Russians have laid a stupefying quantity of them, but not an infinite amount. Once the Ukrainians get past the primary mine belts this thing is going to move along. Also the 155 cluster munitions just got there. Now fI ully agree with the next thing you are going to say, they should have been there a year ago. But whether it is effectiveness, or just having enough ammo, the Russians are starting to SUFFER. Unlike the Ukrainians they have no idea why they are there, that will tell in the end.

At last russians take revenge on the ukrainian tractors 

One. Still not entirely discounting a Mincemeat scenario. (the Hope is strong with this one).
Two. Every member of that Dischord group is going to jail for abetting and conspiring during an ongoing months-long espionage crime, right? I mean, the second one of you jabbonies leaks a secret document I'm ratting you out.

Why you are flat wrong:
We have spent $30 billion on this war so far, much of which is actually recycled back into the American economy. That's equivalent to something like 4% of our defense budget to cripple the biggest threat to the global political order in half a century or more. This war is less than a year old  and Russia has already lost about half of the territory it gained.   It isn't our "foreign adventure" it is Russia's...which has repeatedly said Moldova and the Baltics are next. Which means NATO...and we certainly intend on defending it hell or high water and obviously should.

U.S. Politics. I said this in May on this forum, "U.S. politics will have an impact on Ukrainian strategy if the war is not settled by the 2024 election. The state of US politics is such that, whichever position one party takes, the other party stakes out the exact opposite. Regardless how Ukraine polls now with Americans, the two parties will corral their voters into the paddock they're supposed to be in."
 
American partisan politics has been nothing but Star Bellied Sneetches since 1988.

Now we're talking about something fun to speculate about.  What will UKR do?  Feint where & then hit where?  Or pretend the first punch is a feint when it's actually the real punch, ala Normandy?  Much more interesting than drone swarms which are gonna be a bit too late for this war.
Tokmak is a great target, cutting the east-west rail line.  Plus using the new 150km missiles to cut the two lines out of crimea.  I am sure RU has stockpiled a good amount of stuff but severely interdicting new supply matters and matters a lot in an artillery heavy war.
Steven mentioned above that RU managed in Kherson to get around the cutting of the bridges -- except that RU also had to flee Kherson due to the cutting the bridges as it was unsustainable. 

I also question the “huge losses” part.  Proportionately how huge were they really?  Do we have valid data? What were the attacker/defender loss ratios and how do they compare to historical examples?  I argue at Kherson in retaking a major urban centre - the overall operational objective - the losses were incredibly light compared to other urban battles.  Kherson costed, but it was no Verdun or Stalingrad.  
By that French report Ukraine has 600-700k volunteers in the pipe that need training support.  So we know they are not out of human capital.  The UA seems very capable of operations and is looking to create “3 new army corps” by this spring - this is not a battered military force.
I think part of the problem is that this is a war of the old ways.  It is attritional in nature, of which “corrosive” is a new spin but still attritional.  That means a grinding fight until one side collapses.  This entire war is a meta-attritional exercise built on corrosive operations. I think we in the west are shocked by this and somehow convinced ourselves that we had evolved away from this type of war.  I also think technology has shifted that evolution towards attrition by stressing and countering what made “fast and easy” possible before.  Corrosive warfare is essentially “faster precision attrition” in nature but it comes with a cost.  But those costs must remain manageable for one side over the other.  In this war, it is pretty clear that the equation is in Ukraine’s favour for now.
In the end Kherson is a clear example of a breaking RA system.  One that has been breaking and failing since end-March, largely because it was not designed for this war.  The UA is designed for this war, they are excelling at it.  “How long, where and when” are simply the adjectives of Russian defeat, a defeat that has already happened.  Russia is isolated and alienated, its deterrent power based on conventional military capability at a nadir. It has united NATO and the West in ways none of our leaders could - Finland and Sweden FFS.  And it political house is shaking.  Russia has failed to achieve any of its strategic objectives, and in many ways has made things worse for itself - the war could stop right now and none of that would change.
 

Pretty sure the sound editor of this Ukrainian artillery clip is a fan of CMBB, because that's where he got his sound files. I'd know the sound of my pixeltruppen getting minced anywhere, https://twitter.com/nevedimka123/status/1604863216768585729?s=20&t=zW_3xmI4sTwmHMeUwrMBtw

I'm noticing the broken span looks like a ramp going to the sea.
Is this the offramp Ukraine was supposed to give Putin? 🤣

With a Bill of Lading that says it's 2 tons of Russian explosives intended for Russian forces?  
(edit: It might even be an actual Russian shipment of 2 tons of explosives.)
And the remotely triggered part is too small to notice on the x-ray.

Eh, I was more of an Oingo Boingo kind of guy.

so +10, just for nostalgia 

Ah I finally get it now. It has nothing to do with "calls to kill" since there are none.
I'm bad and evil because instead of pretending russians don't rape little children and cut off body parts of living human beings - I keep saying they should be held responsible, all of them must feel at least some consequences - because they support it. Whereas what I should really do is shut up and think about how after the war ends I will be holding hands with rapists and murderers and singing kumbaya and all will be well in the world. Everybody will be friends again and everybody will watch cute cat videos instead of mass exhumations.
Maybe we will even drink tea with russians on top of a Ukrainianmass grave and laugh and make funny jokes ❤️❤️❤️

No discussion here, they will have to manage that at some point. We know very well what it took to break the spiral of hate between DE and it's neihgbors, and in case of RU we are very, very far from it. IMO at this point all we could expect is that UA hate towards Russians is managed to a degree that they won't reciprocate with committing atrocities - and they are managing that pretty well IMO. Expecting anything more of them would be unfair. 
The way I see it, UA and RU will be having a kind of a Korean situation in the foreseeable future, complete with barbed wire and minefields. It is up to RU to try to change that, not on UA, and I just can't imagine them doing what it takes to normalize, not in a decade or two.

I wonder how many of the people who fought in Donbass in 2014 on LDPR side are even alive anymore. The Russians were using them as cannon fodder since the beginning of the invasion.

Yes, yes - it is bridge near Novokari. There are two more bridges there at - Mylove and at Dutchane. And T-2207 seems to be the only normal road in the corridor between Charvine and Novokari. If Rasputiza starts in 2-3 weeks the whole eastern group of RU will be in the trap once bridges are blown. 

Yes. The original Planet of the Apes (1968) movie.