Richi

So, a question for those in the know. There doesn't appear to be a lot of tank on tank violence occurring so to me the DU ammo is great for when that happens, but how are the stocks of HE for the NATO tanks? Is this going to be another ammunition bottleneck where the UA is going to want a heck of a lot more than what is available, or are there massive stocks of it? I'm sure there is plenty of HEAT ammo out there, but it would seem that more blast and fragmentation would be desirable since the tanks are used for pummeling positions. Thoughts?

Another day, another posadka for 3rd Assault Brigade:
 

Rereading this outstanding history of Normandy again. The thing that stands out is the enormous effect of absolute air supremacy. The Germans were bombed, bombed again, and then bombed with real intent. For all of the amazing effects of PGMs and drones it is not clear to me that they bring the same weight to bear, at least i the quantities available to the Ukrainians. The Luftwaffe of course was essentially a non factor in France. The anonymous sources whinging about Ukrainian tactics are asking them to do something we didn't attempt even in 1944.
Yes on occasion we bombed our on side, but we bombed the Germans a GREAT deal more.
Fair warning: The entire document amounts to a long full length book.

Last couple of days it kinda looks like Ukrainians have an easier time advancing. Which given they just bumped into the Surovikin Line is kinda counter intuitive.
That leaves me with the impression that the Russians degraded their manpower and defensive capacity in front of their main line to a degree that their main line of defence is now largely ineffective. Are we once again very lucky they are so f-ing stupid? Or am I seeing things that aren't there?

I agree it isn't bocage level awful, it is the mines that have slowed Ukraine to a crawl. If Normandy had been mined the way Southern Ukraine is mined the Allies would have taken much longer to break out, if ever. And drones cut both ways for offense and defense. But Ukrainian tree lines just don't have the same absolute impassibility.
Edit: The question is has Ukraine made it through the worst of the mines
 

This night Russia conducted retaliation combined strike with Shakheds and cruise missiles.
Loud night was in Kyiv too. Over the city and around were intercepted 20 aerial targets. Alas, in Kyiv parts of downed missile killes two citizens, also in Kyiv and oblast several citizens were injured by fragments of broken windows. 
Odesa was under attack two, reportedly 8 missiles were intercepted over the sea.
Total Russians have launched 28 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles (all were intercepted) and 16 Shakeds (15 were intercepted)

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/29/7417578/
Russian "authorities" in Tokmak prepare to leave city – Melitopol's mayor. 

Ukraine retains the moral high ground.
Ukraine should continue to hit military targets and avoid civilian targets. I see no point in hitting an office tower for example.
 

Give Ukraine the ability to deliver 500 JDAMs a day to a depth of three hundred kilometers, AND clear every Russian aircraft bigger than a small quadcopter out of Ukraine's skies, and the counteroffensive will move right along. In the absence of that Ukraine is prosecuting this the old hard way about as well as it possibly can. Parts of the Pentagon just can't wrap their heads around this.
Heck we can't even pull our heads out of our rear ends and manage to send some our new laser toys over for a test against drones in real world conditions. Because if they work we need thousands of them, and if they don't we need a new plan soonest.

Of course they did. I would expect nothing less of the extremely professional and transparent Russian “investigations.”

Many thanks to you, @The_MonkeyKing and others here for providing reports on the on-the-ground military situation and tactical dynamics.
I don't do Xwitter ever since Musk made it nonnavigable for nonsubscribers, so threadreaders or copypastes of key points and graphics are greatly appreciated!

I do have all the pre-2014 documents, both originals and digital backup scans in the cloud.
But it doesn't matter, because I have reasons to believe I may not reach your side of the border. Not particularly fond of the idea of figuring if I am wrong or not. I am 95% sure it's not gonna end well. So I stay put for now.
Uhm. I was born in Crimea ('89), so as my mother and grandparents. My father is originally from Russia, but came here also during Soviet era and was registered here with Ukrainian documents before 2014. I do have all the old documents, but I never left Crimea to renew them after 2014. It costs money, and there's always something more important, like dental, or clothes, or broken boiler. I was going to when I felt comfortable to properly resettle. But who cares? I've never collaborated nor commited any crimes. Those who did know it and take their own risks by staying.
I do get your point about documents disappearing when things blow up and burn, and it's a good one, but it's not like someone intends to repeat Soviet style deportations in the middle of the night with freight trains. Not the country commited to join the EU, at least. Ministry of reintegration and other state services have a lot of experience with this sort of thing by this point, I'm sure. 
 
The ethnic hatred, on the other hand, is something to watch out for, definitely. I've identified myself as ethnically Russian my whole life. I speak Russian in my head 75% of the time. 20% my thoughts are in English, and sometimes I think like 5% in Ukrainian (mostly Poderev'yansky memes ;D).
After 24th February 2022, it suddenly became clear that ethnicity and even culture does not define me. I felt it in my gut and still do. Our actions define who we are. But also laws. By international law, and by Ukrainian law, I am Ukrainian citizen. Even if Estonians did not recognize me as such. That's who I am.
I do see your concerns as valid and they are worth the discussion.

Now there is something I never thought to ask, what is the winter warfare capability of the UA right now?  

Because these things are always messy as hell.  Trying to find the “good ones” in these sorts of situations is always messy.  Totally hypothetical, what if he claims to have lived in Crimea before 2014 but can’t prove it?  Once stuff starts blowing up and burning you could have thousands in this position.  
And then there are Russians who try and fake their way into Crimea (especially if Russia is in such a bad state and they want to keep their homes), what proof will they have and how does one spot the fakes?  This is before trying to figure out who the 15% of the population prior to 2014 who were on the Russian agenda.  “All deals are legally void”, is exactly what some are going to see as repression “ie taking my house”, especially if how people are selected as “good” or “bad” is flawed, and it will be.  People always start to turn on each other when it gets like this. 
Post conflict is almost always one of the toughest stages to manage. Why?  Because we end up trying to fix human micro-social space with bureaucracy and policy. Re-integration has been done well but more likely it will be messy, “how messy?” remains the core question.  There will need to be an entire DDR effort along with massive reconstruction.  When do the Donbas and Crimea get to vote again?  You are not going to figure out good from bad “Crimeans” over a weekend.

I cannot begin to imagine what  you've gone through but hang in there! 

Post says they got behind RU lines and retreating troops then ran into them. Lots of confusion. If you read the thread I get the impression the retreating RU troops didn't realise they were running into a UKR unit that had got in behind them.
 

Actually it's interesting the number that were smiling or laughing about the hack ... not exactly the signs one would expect of a population which 90% supports the putinists!

Fingers crossed!
 

While I would love to see this, I just don't think anything will come of it.  For the most part these guys are mercenaries not "true believers" and unless someone steps up to arm and pay them, I doubt much will come of this.

So… what exactly do we think Putin’s rationale for killing Progozhin now was, again?
Surely this can’t be as simple as ‘he had it coming’:  If the above downsides to killing him were always acceptable Putin could have executed him immediately after the uprising as a far more effective way of emphasising his own power and ruthlessness.  If the downsides weren’t acceptable back then then what has changed to make the killing sensible now?  And if Prigozhin was protected by powerful puppet masters then killing him doesn’t achieve anything vis-a-vis said masters and you still get the downsides.
Something still doesn’t add up about this whole business.

Further, any group now going after Putin will know/believe there is no room for compromise, so they will not be turning back at the outskirts of Moscow.

Not so fast. Our TGs write UKR command of advancing brigades concerned with such rapid withdrawal of Russians - this can be a trap with flank strikes and artillery hammering of narrow front from all sides, so UKR troops should to expand own flanks enough in order to not to be cut off and encirlced. I notice, in Novoprokopivka in front of our troops already not Territorial troops mobiks and tired units of 42nd MRD, but fresh VDV units - 108th regimemt and two battalions of 56th regiment of 7th air-assault division. This is serious opponent. 
Western partners say to us "Go, go, go! Winter is coming". I wish to our generals big patience and don't command to our troops in own turn "go, go, go!" like in June...

Hmmm.... Next surprise at the end of Independense Day?
Just RUMINT - this VERY UNVERIFIED for now, but allegedly UKR troops already fight inside Novoprokopivka village and engaged Russians on northern ouskirt of Ilchenkove. Also as if Russian troops now pulling back behind "dragon teeth" line in Solodka Balka
The map of Poulet Volant likely for yesterday situation. Solodka Balka - to south from Ilchenkove. It's unseen on the map.

It's interesting how of us have mentioned the possibility of a second Wagner rebellion - we've all just assumed that minus Prigozhin & Utkin Wagner is impotent/directionless. Perhaps Putin made the same assumptions. 
But per @sburke it might not be. Perhaps Prigozhin's implanted ideology has a life of its own... 
Wouldn't that be a poison pill par excellence...
 

Sorry