Richi

Regarding grain export agreement: I strongly doubt that NATO or another international organization will do something like an escort mission. Two reasons:
1) the Bosporus strait is closed by Turkey to any warships not stationed in the Black Sea, which would prevent any Western escort or mine clearing ships from entering anyway.
Legally, allies are not an exception, even though if NATO was a properly functional alliance and we lived in a just world, Western nations would arrange it with Turkey anyway, await the Russian protest for this breach of international law at the UN and then pat each others' shoulders, laughing and pointing at the Russian representative.
2) this is probably much too hot for most Western states. As in the sky, with Russia harrassing American and British aircraft, putting ships into the Black Sea enormously increases the risk of an accident or incident which might lead to an exchange of fire or loss of a ship - which would force Western politicians to react - maybe even say how concerned and worried they are about it on TV. Something they definitely want to avoid. 
If they play it smart, which they won't, the West would send an unescorted civilian freight ship to load grain, and watch if Russia pulls the trigger.
If they don't, a bit more of Russia's small shrunken balls will be revealed to the world and export can continue.
If they do, this would reduce Russia's standing in the world more and might actually cause a reaction at the UN general assembly.
Most likely, I suspect, is that something trilaterial between Ukraine, Turkey and Russia will be negotiated and grain export will continue after a few more weeks of nightly bombardments.
 

Anyone rushing out to see Oppenheimer this weekend? I am not a big movie goer. But this has been getting good previews especially in IMAX. So it looks like next week for me. I heard the thing really goes boom - no feedstock nor livestock harmed during the filming. It would make for an interesting observational project to see who goes into the Oppenheimer theater and who goes to see Barb*e. 

100 percent.
a) the Ukrainian government wants those ****ers to leave. GTFO and stay out.
b) the Ukrainian government does not want to go near the "both sides are just as bad BS" they need to stay on the high road even if their anger is justified.
The moment I have to explain to friends and family that some Russian civilians dying is not as bad as the number of Ukrainian civilians dying I'm going to be really worried about international support. So, far it has never come up.

What if the Ukrainians basically have baited the Russians into counterattacking in the north by attacking the south, and have forces built up and waiting to launch a spoiling attack to destroy them when they push? They of all people know the Russians love to attack and don't like to sit and defend.
That would be epic (although probably pretty unlikely but one can hope)!

See, this is what worries me.
Russian commanders and troops refusing bad orders is bad for Ukraine.
The incompetence of the MoD is a big factor of why the war has been going like it has been going.
Dead Russians is the current measuring stick for deoccupation efforts. 
When Russian soldiers refuse meat assaults, but instead stay on the defense, this makes the Ukrainian job harder, not easier. 
When Russian soldiers abbandon soviet-style "obey the written letter" military planning, this makes the Ukrainian job harder, not easier.
This is not a 1917 situation, with disillusioned, hungry Russian soldiers wanting to get home.
It is disillusioned, hungry Russian soldiers beginning to refuse orders so that they can stay in Ukraine longer and kill Ukrainians better. 
Of course, disruptions of official chain of command is not a net positive for an army. But in this particular case of today's Russian Army, it might not be a net negative either.
The most dangerous formations on the Russian side are volunteers who modernise, teach, fundraise, build drones and act with initiative. With the authority of the MoD eroding, these volunteers will gain influence, not lose it. 
This is the difference between that one Russian throwing a jammed gun away while defending a trench and having a gun that works. And some guys with FPV drones that fly into the Ukrainian attack squad. Yes, most of the Russian platoon is still useless and cowers in the dugout. But it is nonetheless a possibility for accumulated small improvements.
To clarify, because that seems to have been the impression from my "paranoid post", I am not saying this will suddenly turn the Russian Army into a vastly improved fighting force and makes them suddenly win the war and parade through Kyiv in 2024.
I think this will draw the war out. It moves the needle more towards standstill. It costs more Ukrainian lives - even if the overall outcome down the line is not significantly changed.

It would make defence more complex for the Russians- for example:

ATACMs flies on a ballistic trajectory while Storm Shadow is a cruise missile, so one of each fired at the same target presents two different air defence problems at the same time (fast but telegraphed ATACMs vs slower but stealthier Storm Shadow). Mix in decoys, Storm Shadows changing direction etc and things can get real confusing real fast.

This might prompt the Russians to concentrate more air defence on more important targets, leaving other (still important) targets less well defended.

There's also the EW game- the Russians are inevitably going to get their hands on some kind of salvageable internals from whatever weapons are used, at which point they can dig into the systems and figure out how they can jam or spoof them. They've already apparently gotten hold of a Storm Shadow, so from here on out there's a possibility that Storm Shadow strikes can be degraded by EW effects.

Having more different types of weapons in the mix keeps things fresh (as it were), so there's always something up Ukraine's sleeve that the Russians haven't developed a counter to yet. At the same time, depending on the specifics, even if the Russians have worked out how to jam ATACMs and Storm Shadow, they might not be able to jam both at the same time because EW cna be finicky, or if they can, they might need more rare, expensive EW assets concentrated to do so.

Stuff like that.

The U.S. army was in WW2 expanded ~200,000 in 1938, to a couple of million in 1945. This is not a new problem, just a bleeping unpleasant one. You have to ruthlessly promote the good officers, and fire the bad ones. Again we just don't have enough information to judge the performance of Ukrainian units. Is the commander of the 47th lousy, or was he given an impossible job? Was he given that impossible job for reasons that make sense in the larger picture? 
The only thing we know for sure is that Ukraine doesn't have the air force to do this offensive the way the U.S. would. they doing a different and sadly more expensive one, that doesn't mean it won't work.
And not everyone gets to fight there wars with oceans for moats,  unfortunately. It could be argued that the U.S. has NEVER fought a war that had the stakes this one has for Ukraine.

Yeah, we are all witness to a big theatrical play we still don´t understand. Prig will be back on 05/08, Shoigu publically threatens to use cluster ammunition as retaliation that US is sending that to UAF and Gerassimov fires one of his Generals and sents him into the ditches to the front. The clownshow goes on.

I don´t think US logistics is that quick. I know they are quick, but that quick? Not so friendly fire?

I get the frustration, of course he wanted to get a more positive answer. Can't blame him either. But as someone commented on TV: Sadly, part of the frustration is self induced because Zelensky clearly overplayed his hand this time and expected and/or promised too much. As Stoltenberg said in his last answer at the press conference, there is no NATO membership while Ukraine is still at war. And since noone can tell how long the war is going to last there can be no realistic date for a membership. Even the Latvian prime minister said this was the only realistic answer.

Zelensky is not happy:
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4090499-zelensky-says-uncertainty-over-ukraines-nato-membership/
I don't blame him. But he has to know a) kinetic fighting needs to end b) then Ukraine enters NATO c) there will be an uneasy peace for a long time. This is the west's endgame. All the talk about reclaiming 100% of Ukraine is slipping through their fingers. The UA will not commit their western brigades until assurances from the west (e.g. airpower) are in place. Zelensky will not play his ace in the hole until certain battlefield conditions are met. Those conditions are not under his complete control. Without those conditions, the UA can't impose its will on the RA. Meanwhile sustained offensive pressure could cause some form of collapse. But that is more an indication of Russian weakness than western strength. Since negotiating with Putin is nearly impossible, NATO has to step up now. Anything Russian on Ukrainian soil should be considered hostile by NATO and then proceed per their doctrine. But, that's not the west's endgame - so around and around we go. Where the war stops nobody knows. 

What a beautiful day.

Some humor about Finnish Leo2 )

Today we have 500 days of full-scale war and a birthday - 50 years of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi

In theory, I agree with everything you say. In practice though, we're not seeing the front line move very much.
And if trenches are death traps, then why are Ukraininians also digging them?
I don't think I am the only one who was very surprised to see the re-emergence of trench warfare on this scale.

That man has balls
 
https://twitter.com/arnocast/status/1677564293229715457?s=20

It's now been one month since the counteroffensive began. Gains have been extremely limited so far. Hoping to see it speed up soon. For all we have heard of Russian incompetence, the proof in the pudding is that the frontline is not moving very much.
I've gone from "the counteroffensive won't win the war but it will be very succesful" to "there's now a real risk of this war ending in a stalemate".

Black Humour...
 
https://twitter.com/Sputnik_Not/status/1677479985857155072?s=20

WSJ this morning:
Ukraine Nears Nuclear Deal With Bulgaria in Fresh Blow for Russian Influence:
Bulgaria turns against Moscow in negotiating the sale of two Russian-designed reactors to Kyiv
Another screw tightening. 

Stoltenberg will remain Secretary General of NATO until October of next year due to current "unprecedented security challenges". 
I think he has done an amicable job so far, from the perspective of a civilian.

Nice 4th of July fireworks. Drone footage of the Donetsk/Makeevka explosion:
 
https://twitter.com/SmartUACat/status/1676500561057775618?s=20

Ukrainians, being grateful allies, decided to celebrate 4 July in a big way.

Jaw-dropping footage of yesterday's strike at RU ammo depot, a must watch!
 

A clip has been making the rounds of a Russian being very visibly hurled into the air after his tank blew up. Based on the video it looks like he was riding on the tank just in front of the turret on the right hand side. Then, after the tank hit a mine (??) he was flung into the air before landing about 100 metres away.
 

well well well, someone at the front is not getting resupplied for a while.....