kevinkin

Fear will cause hesitation. That is what Putin wants - hesitation, and time to hold his regime together so he does not get hauled in front of a war crimes tribunal. That could be one of Putin's primary motivators at this point in the war. The West might just allow a severely wounded Putin to remain if they start to hear about threatened WMD transfers. Unlikely scenario, but I hope a few people with influence are losing a bit of sleep over it. However, in the meantime Ukraine will recapture lost ground sort of following what the ISW piece described over the weekend. Maybe the pace needs to be quicker. 

Would Russia ever consider passing WMD technology to a non-state actor as their world collapses? Although the ISW analysis yesterday (posted a bunch of pages back) suggests Putin might escape by the skin of his teeth.
"The Kremlin would use any suspension of hostilities to consolidate its gains and freeze the frontline in the best configuration Putin can get to prepare for future coercion and aggression against Ukraine. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to freeze the lines of combat short of Ukraine’s international borders in ways that set conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms."
I don't see how the West would drop the ball at this point. And whatever the border, it will be the most watched of all time. Any new attacks would be futile regardless of the exact starting positions. 
"If Ukraine is to emerge from this war able to defend itself against a future Russian attack and with a viable economy that does not rely on long-term international financial support, it must liberate almost all its territory."

Would Russia ever consider passing WMD technology to a non-state actor as their world collapses? Although the ISW analysis yesterday (posted a bunch of pages back) suggests Putin might escape by the skin of his teeth.
"The Kremlin would use any suspension of hostilities to consolidate its gains and freeze the frontline in the best configuration Putin can get to prepare for future coercion and aggression against Ukraine. Those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to freeze the lines of combat short of Ukraine’s international borders in ways that set conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms."
I don't see how the West would drop the ball at this point. And whatever the border, it will be the most watched of all time. Any new attacks would be futile regardless of the exact starting positions. 
"If Ukraine is to emerge from this war able to defend itself against a future Russian attack and with a viable economy that does not rely on long-term international financial support, it must liberate almost all its territory."

NATO is already in the war via the tremendous amount of support its members have given to Ukraine's defense. There can be little doubt NATO's efforts have killed Russians on the battlefield. NATO sees that Russia is on the run and wants to manage the endgame and get them out of Ukraine. I hope that's as quick as possible at a minimum cost to Ukraine. Should NATO add direct air and ground support to get that done? Probably not. Other than WMD, instigating that type of NATO escalation is out of Putin's hands. And I don't think he wants to be on the receiving end. But irrational leaders do irrational things. Including trying to save their butts in whatever way necessary.

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-terrified-putin-bunker-mentality-080334874.html

https://news.yahoo.com/russians-terrified-putin-bunker-mentality-080334874.html

And we were told that these were only suitable as battle taxis, certain death in a modern battlefield during combat.

It appears that, if the enemy's anti-tank capability is seriously degraded, the venerable M113 can still fight
That's so wrong on so many levels.  Let's take a high-level look.  Until recently, the US was (for the first time in a long time) energy self-sufficient and had the option to improve energy flows from its friendly, democratic neighbour - Canada.

Now, the US faces shortages that have driven up energy costs, disproportionally impacting the poor; is going to reduce sanctions on a brutal autocracy and strategic competitor - Venezuela - to reduce the cost of energy; has been gravely depleting strategic reserves to reduce the pump cost; is considering blocking off-shore drilling; and so is once again at the mercy of OPEC.
Sounds kind of like - not an exact parallel - Germany, and we all know where that has led.  

Love fossil fuels, hate them, either way they are necessary in the mid term, and no solution that includes confiscation of corporations and/or their assets - that's what nationalization means - to put them in the hands of disinterested government controllers is going to improve things.  If anyone think nationalization works, the most recent blindingly obvious counter-example is ... Venezuela, which is now a living hell.
 
And yet, President Biden just mooted exactly that: https://nationalpost.com/news/biden-nuclear-armageddon-risk-highest-since-62-crisis

I don't know if it's strategic messaging or just a gaffe.
 

Perhaps a "how to" promotional video for the program. Odd a lone AFV appears around a corner into a perfect ambush. But I would not be surprised if it's an actual surrender which would be great.

Same here. Not sure how I found the web site back then. How did they get the word out? 

OK, I see what you mean. Should the figure below be used moving forward? Hard to tell exactly.
"As told representative of General Staff average rate of KiA usually not exceed 30-50 for a day."

B52s ... saw them at a club when they just started. 
Saw these guys at their peak several times. 
 

And those barrels should just pile up on Putin's porch. The free world will adapt just fine without his source of income. If the free world is so addicted to Putin's drug, then shame on us looking the other way and banning technology like fracking. There is plenty of energy in the ground and where money can be made innovation follows.    

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/19/ukraine-has-shot-down-55-russian-warplanes-00057569?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d
"There’s a similar trepidation within the White House, which is declining to send longer-range missiles for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, for fear Ukraine would begin hitting targets inside Russia. Current missiles can travel about 50 miles, as opposed to the 180 mile range of the missiles Ukraine has been clamoring for."
Same **** different day. 
""Those self-imposed curbs on aid have frustrated Kyiv and others who want to more quickly and fully equip Ukraine to hit Russian forces harder. For now at least, “Ukraine has what they need to survive and fight and try to protect their sovereign country without turning this into World War III,” Hecker said.""
The word protect sucks from the Air Forces in Europe and Africa commander Gen. James Hecker. Actions speak louder than words so let's see. Retake would be a lot better. 
"The general did acknowledge that the U.S. is providing Ukraine “time sensitive” intelligence to Ukraine, but insisted that the Americans are not picking targets for them." 
I would like to review that menu.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/19/ukraine-has-shot-down-55-russian-warplanes-00057569?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d
"There’s a similar trepidation within the White House, which is declining to send longer-range missiles for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, for fear Ukraine would begin hitting targets inside Russia. Current missiles can travel about 50 miles, as opposed to the 180 mile range of the missiles Ukraine has been clamoring for."
Same **** different day. 
""Those self-imposed curbs on aid have frustrated Kyiv and others who want to more quickly and fully equip Ukraine to hit Russian forces harder. For now at least, “Ukraine has what they need to survive and fight and try to protect their sovereign country without turning this into World War III,” Hecker said.""
The word protect sucks from the Air Forces in Europe and Africa commander Gen. James Hecker. Actions speak louder than words so let's see. Retake would be a lot better. 
"The general did acknowledge that the U.S. is providing Ukraine “time sensitive” intelligence to Ukraine, but insisted that the Americans are not picking targets for them." 
I would like to review that menu.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-biden-warns-putin-on-nuke-use
Some items to start the week off with in this one. Notably:
"Politico: Ukraine continues quiet negotiations to receive high-end US weapons.
Kyiv and Washington are discussing possibilities of sending – Patriot air defense systems, F-16 fighter jets, and Gray Eagle drones – as long-term financing deals, Politico reported citing sources."

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/09/white-house-military-weigh-escalation-risk-ukraine-asks-longer-range-missiles/377286/
Nothing really new because we have known the policy is one of titration all year. But the endpoint is near and a little more reagent will turn the indicator blue. 
"The former official pointed out that the United States has changed its mind on what weapons to give numerous times since the conflict began and always under some threat from the Kremlin. 
“Things we couldn't give in January because it was escalatory were given in February. And things we couldn't give in February we can in April. That has been the distinct pattern, starting with, crying out loud, Stingers,” he said, referring to shoulder-launched FIM-92 Stinger missiles.
The former official criticized the U.S. approach as overly incremental and slow. 
“Even when we say yes, when new weapons systems go out, we send two or three as opposed to what they really need. It’s all part of that same caution which leads to more Ukrainian deaths and lengthens this war.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-biden-warns-putin-on-nuke-use
Some items to start the week off with in this one. Notably:
"Politico: Ukraine continues quiet negotiations to receive high-end US weapons.
Kyiv and Washington are discussing possibilities of sending – Patriot air defense systems, F-16 fighter jets, and Gray Eagle drones – as long-term financing deals, Politico reported citing sources."

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2022/09/white-house-military-weigh-escalation-risk-ukraine-asks-longer-range-missiles/377286/
Nothing really new because we have known the policy is one of titration all year. But the endpoint is near and a little more reagent will turn the indicator blue. 
"The former official pointed out that the United States has changed its mind on what weapons to give numerous times since the conflict began and always under some threat from the Kremlin. 
“Things we couldn't give in January because it was escalatory were given in February. And things we couldn't give in February we can in April. That has been the distinct pattern, starting with, crying out loud, Stingers,” he said, referring to shoulder-launched FIM-92 Stinger missiles.
The former official criticized the U.S. approach as overly incremental and slow. 
“Even when we say yes, when new weapons systems go out, we send two or three as opposed to what they really need. It’s all part of that same caution which leads to more Ukrainian deaths and lengthens this war.”

Looks like Putin and X are attending a funeral. I trust it's a metaphor for the future. 

Thanks ... a real gem.

Not in any way a large contingent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Army_Balloon_Corps#Establishing_the_Corps
but in case some may not know about their trials in the US Civil War, here is a link Knowledge of where the enemy is and with what is a never ending problem. 
 

Not in any way a large contingent:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Army_Balloon_Corps#Establishing_the_Corps
but in case some may not know about their trials in the US Civil War, here is a link Knowledge of where the enemy is and with what is a never ending problem. 
 

"U.S. expects months of intense fighting in Ukraine-Russia war"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/15/us-ukraine-russia-war/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d
No mention of an imminent Putin departure or collapse of Russian society. The deep state in the West is planning for and betting on a longer war than many would like:
"Those expectations undergird a U.S. strategy of attempting to hold together international support and gradually expanding American military aid without the immediate injection of heavier weaponry that might trigger a wider war."
Also:
""forces will encounter a period of intense fighting in the lead-up to winter as part of what they expect to be a “nonlinear” trajectory for the war.""
When you have no clue or just want to obfuscate, call something non-linear. At least you sound smart. 

For me, and likely others who are not 'tuned in', what is an RU Nat?
Google gives me this guy - nAts - VALORANT Esports Wiki (fandom.com) - who, while he may well have been press-ganged into being a drone operator, is not single-handedly holding back the UA at Lyman.
I thought the "RU Nat"s were a movement, political philosophy, loosely-affiliated birds-of-a-feather, but apparently they are much more than that.
Are they:
their own thing, self-sufficient armed forces with it's own chain of command?  If so, who pays and arms them? What is their citizenship? How do they derive legitimacy and/or not get unwanted attention from the Russian security forces? a chunk of the Russian armed forces with command elements staffed - infiltrated? - by people sympathetic to RU Nats (whoever they are) goals?  Again, how do they avoid disappearances and balcony falls? a political party with its own armed forces?  That would be odd, and they don't show in this. If the answer is lengthy and there is some internet reference, happy to have that and I'll read up.
 
They mean this Kiev:

Russian mobilization viewed by reconnaissance satellite in action:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-1aVVEKep0