asurob

Big difference between Nazi Germany and Finland/Romania/Italy, and Russia and the LPR and DPR, this is more akin to Turkey and Northern Cyprus, or Armenia and Artsakh. Or the Soviet Union and the Finnish communists in the Winter War. 
A scenario where Russia is forced out, what keeps Russia out from reentering the LPR and DPR? You would need ZSU forces to reman the border, except, under what scenario can ZSU forces enter the DPR and LPR and set up the proper defense against Russia while letting separatist forces exist? Crimea, they had a autonomous republic, but I'm very doubtful Ukraine will allow any such legitimacy to the puppet republics. Maybe...before 2022 (but im sure others who know more can chime in) but now? Heavy doubt, I don't think Ukraine wishes to give any legitimacy whatsoever to potential separatist entities.  

Winter in a shack outside of Rostov on Don is less than they deserve but should still be quite unpleasant...

Since I can't give you a "Like" directly, I'll give you one from here 👍.

Blinken is doing exactly what the US should...showing the world that our side of this war will entertain reasonable talks. That does not in anyway push Ukraine into anything and Ukraine too is doing what they should...showing the world the strength of their resolve. 
Also, there's plenty of discussion of how to end this war behind the scenes and part of that discussion is about whether or not Ukraine really wants or needs the LDR/DNR territories back. The rebuilding program when this is all over is going to be massive and those places will require a lot of it. While the population is going to transfer in part back to Russia if this all collapses, not all will and many will be quite hostile to the Ukrainian government. 
What you are seeing from Ukraine and Blinken is careful positioning. That's all.

Hey, stop this, this thread belong fully to Tolkien nerds!😉
 
Ok, so can we try to assess scale of Ukrainian success now on 11 PM here in Europe, with some buckets of cold water. We have massive happy hours and probably a lot of rumours/ Ukrainian PsyOps, so let's try to stay sober (for a moment)
1.Frontline will probably stabilize on Oskil...or not? Russians are trying to form something resembling defence in the east of the river but have giant problems. Ukrainians are probably very tired and we have only speculations on second wave joining.
2. I read some magical numbers regarding captured POW's and vehicles...like 450+ tanks,7000 POW's and similar. Very unreliable. We don't know how many Russians managed to escape or if kessel is formed (probably not, because of fluid nature of frontlines). Certainly gains at Izyum are truly massive, but we don't know numbers just yet so scale may be little lower than expected (my guess, happy to be proven otherwise).
3. Capture of Yampil is not confirmed, state of Lyman is disputable. Vovchansk and Vielyky Burluk under shelling but probably still not captured; since they are close to Russia they may be reinforced in time (let's hope not).
4. Donbas lines are roughly stable as well, with Russians traditionally pushing towards Bakmut like drunk rhinocero.
5. Oil rafinery areas near Lysychansk is probably contested; something is happening in this axis but still we don't know what.
6. As of now, Donetsk airport, Severdonetsk, big breach in Kherson etc. seem like rumours.
7. Putin is well, Moscow just have celebrations. Nothing suggesting change of power for now.
8. Situation is very dynamic....5 days in and Russians barely try to counterattack. Their "maneuver to regroup in republics" may even be true from RUGenStaff point view...but it somehow mifired.😉 Reality knocks the door.
9. Russian nationalists have butthurt of the century, one can feel their pain and tears throuht the screen.
10. Ukrainain morale sky high, at least in the north. If not death of queen Elizabeth headlines would be full of info about Ukraine for 24/h. Apparently international attention span is not short when for hours describing such vital issues as names of Royal corgies or tapestry of new King's seat while barely mentioning that Ukrainians just gave us most brilliant example of massive manouvre world have seen from WWII (ok, Desert Strom not counts).
 
Now, throw knived at me but I would call to curb our enthusiasm now. It is glorious day indeed, but there are so many rumours and fake stories that we easily can fall into high expectations trap.
 

It looks like a captured Lieutenant General, If I was Ukraine I would demand all of The Azov guys back for him. Anything less and he can rot in prison for any or all of his several thousand crimes.

My guess it that it is a combo of things:
- Lack of effective CAS system in the RA
- Dispersed UA makes hard to find and hit concentrations
- Nasty UA ISR superiority plus wicked next-Gen MANPADS makes getting in and out very dangerous.
Add these up and…
Oh and getting airfields HIMARed or whatever that was, might also mean the Russian Air Force is also in the process of pulling back.

https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1567935286813786112?s=20&t=OzWdpbMQq-K5BilQSQ7nbQ

Radio tower at 49.42623° N, 37.44724° E, ESE of Buhaivka:
 

It is funny how they blame UKR channels but I read mostly RU channels (80%). Almost everything you see here is from them.
Panic started from RU channels due to unexpected UKR attack that resulted in capture of Arsenal - means Balakley is almost encircled. At some point RU channels got directive to shut up and panic changed to statement: there is not panic UKR did not penetrated deep enough, we stopped them.
They are claiming everything is fine

The problem is:
At least UKR recon reached Arsenal UKR reached Yakovlivke at the Volokiy Yar-Balakleya road - RU main supply road RU Nats with links to local troops reports Balaklya is operationally encircled So, the current situation most likely looks like this: UKR controls the majority of Verbovka and contest north of Balaklya including Arsenal, RU control Balarklya itself (south of Arsenal) but they are present only in some parts of Balaklya. Ru still have road to East to escape but the issue is there are rumors UKR reached Savyntsy (actually a few more settlements nearby as well). If true, then RU indeed encircled. 
  

If the Ukrainians are just close enough to make this a credible head fake it a big deal. If it is true I think the Russians have all but lost the war. Even if it is just trolling it is phd level and will induce huge anxiety in the Russians.
Yes I m being a little over enthusiastic, but there has been 24 hours of unrelenting good news. 🤣
 

I think it was reddit where I read Putin was looking to start some negotiations (so the reliability of the source can certainly be questioned) but given what we think the state of his army it wouldn't surprise me.  I could see the Russians wanting to freeze the war right where it is...and rebuild their army for the next round.  Honestly, Its his best move at this point in a sea of absolute terrible decisions if true.  I think the next couple weeks is going to really be telling...but I'd love to see the invaders driven to the border...which includes all their ill gotten territory grabs from 2014.

Is there some Putler negotiation request going on?  I have not heard about this.  'course, threatening to invade or nuke every country in europe doesn't make it easy to get one a sympathetic ear from those that would need to stop helping Urkaine.  And Biden sure aint backing down, nor it seems is US congress.  I suppose he is just desperately trying to flip over the chess table now that he's down to two pawns and a king. 
I am starting to feel optimistic though, as Aragorn has rightfully noted quite often, our optimism is typically quite premature.  But the whole eastern section of Putler's Pocket is looking very very vulnerable right now.  If the DavidyBrid salient gets wide/deep enough for artillery it'll be a turkey shoot on the supplies for the eastern section.
And on an earlier post, I am rather surprised that an 'expert' thinks fuel pipes will save the day.  Just follow the ants (fuel trucks) to & from the nest where the fuel is collected into storage/trucks.  Since we know it's on the bank somewhere there's only so may places that have to be scouted w satellite/drones.  Those sites will make some nice explosions for our viewing pleasure I am sure.  And that's only for fuel.  They need a lot more than just fuel and their artillery response already seems to be severely degraded.

I'm late to the party due to a business trip, but to comment on the Prague protests.
The political parties organizing it were 1) SPD ("common man" far right party, claiming to be direct democracy party - basically nazis) 2) Tricolor ("intellectual" far right party, basically nazis in suits) and 3) Communists (actual Stalinists who renamed themselves after the revolution, sadly never got banned). None of these parties had any success in last elections, by the way, and all are basically known to be getting Kremlin money.
They were protesting for 1) leaving the EU 2) leaving the NATO 3) leaving the WHO (... wtf) 4) "not diluting Czech nation with Ukrainian refugees" 5) removing sanctions and buying Russian gas 6) some other nonsense like people being give 3 MWh of electricity every year or something.
So yeah - nazis, antivaxxers, commies, traitors and idiots.
Some of us have already made arrangements to run a counter-protest in case they do this again - it is true that we got bit blindsided by there being so many of these scum.

They are about to lose the ACTUAL war, too. They even know it, hence the coordinated eratz peace demonstrations and attempts to restart negotiations. Ukraine needs to tell them that negotiations will be conducted by 155 and HIMARS until the last Russian soldier leaves Ukrainian soil. It is damned shame they can't march to Moscow and read out terms in Red Square.

As opposed to some of the predictions that have been made on this topic that aged like a fine wine.
But yeah, sometimes I also go back to reading some of these comments made by totally not biased pro-Russian "experts" from the beginning of this war for a good laugh. 😀

I would nonetheless challenge your 'combat proven' claim. The US don't want it, don't need it, don't even plan to replace it - the F35 will be picking up its role; go in fast, deliver precision ordinance on the right target, get back out again in one piece.
Ukraine already has slow moving armoured weapons platforms, and they're not using them to attack artillery or tanks. Drones not helicopters. Drones not A-10. The world has moved on.

Mine is. Especially when it comes to joint military exercises with an aggressive country that just invaded another country and is bombing, killing, raping and torturing it's civilians.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-blamed-the-us-for-dragging-the-war-in-ukraine-out-even-though-he-could-call-russian-troops-home-at-any-moment/ar-AA10JH8z?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=1722cd07b5d44e419ff7f1e722967650
 
waaaahhhh!  Sounds like crying to me.  Somebody's folks are cannon fodder, but I don't think they are Ukrainian.

So I totally get the impulse to unpack this attack, especially from a forum of - let's just say - "detail orientated" wargamers.  Kudos to those that continue to Zapruder this thing, and I am sure in time the details of how the UA pulled this off will come out (my bet is missile strike, but I would not rule out one helluva SOF black bag job - could be both in reality; complex attack).
But for all the lurkers out there I would recommend we all keep an eye on the follow-on impacts of this strike on a strategic and political level.  We bounced around this a few pages back but here are some thoughts:
- All war is communication and that is a complex concept of 'the message', 'the means to send the message', and 'the method of transmission'.  Every piece of those components in themselves create information that is interpreted in multiple dimensions.  For example Ukraine said things thru this attack that create certainty and uncertainty - in case the second one is the most powerful:
Ukraine stated, with certainty, that they can hit a high value target with extreme precision at 225km (at least) behind Russian lines.  I say 'extreme precision' because it appears they did more damage with the secondaries than the initial strikes, and that takes a very high level of precision in time and space.  This was not lobbing a missile at a target, they hit exactly where they needed to in order to create a very high profile "boom".  That is communicating 'capability' that I am pretty sure the Russians were sure they understood, right up until yesterday afternoon - based on the scrambling narratives in the Russian info sphere. Ukraine has clearly communicated intent.  If they wanted to hurt Russian airpower, they would have cratered the runway and then FASCAM'd the thing...but this was not about airpower.  They were signaling that they are coming for Crimea, and the Russians were not safe...anywhere.  This will likely create a lot of uncertainty in Russian thinking, as the pretty much figured they had Ukraine pinned down in the Donbas in a grinding war.  We talked about it before but this is strategic manoeuvre thru strike.  The kind of thing the US does by hitting Afghanistan from the other side of the world back on 2001 (https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2016/December 2016/1216hours.pdf).  This was a high profile attack that both demonstrated and signaled intent and resolve in a very visible manner - that is certainty creating uncertainty in their enemy. I don't care how constipated the Russian political machine is, and it is already trying to spin this in crazy directions to blunt the message - they get that much.  No way to dodge it, this is very bad news for the Russians.  They have been relying on the narrative of "hopeless cause": Russian has 'escalation dominance', it can create a never-ending 'stalemate', it can and will fight forever...there is no way Ukraine can win: so stop spending your money in a pre-recession...look we even have Steven Segal!  This is clearly playing on the western psyche and our recent scars from places like Afghanistan. Ukraine just demonstrated that they can still hit a strategic target, with breathtaking precision, at the time and place of their choosing.  That directly attacks the Russian narrative.   Militarily, this type of attack creates enormous uncertainty.  The fact we have people on vacation on a beach watching this happen, and then blow it up all over social media, is a clear indication that Russia considered this area outside the warzone.  You can ignore or sidestep "industrial accidents" and the rash of weird fires we saw back in Mar-Feb, you can ignore HIMARs that hit your logistical system within 70-100kms.  You cannot ignore a strategic strike, that just happened in front of the entire world, at over twice that range.  The Russian military now needs to not only figure out how to secure itself at ranges it thought safe, it has to figure out how to defend Russian certainty, which just got seriously mauled. So what?  Well the first reaction will be "it was a lucky one off", and "this is war, these things happen".  However, information is funny with humans, we cannot un-think it.  As a minimum, Russian has to re-think the battlespace, significantly.  That is a lot of assumptions that just cracked in military planning - the fact that they did not see it coming in time to interdict is the biggest one.  Russians may try to ignore it, but I am betting western ISR is picking up a lot of scrambling going on in the Russian rear areas right now.  Again, this is more friction being imposed via uncertainty.  And that uncertainty will spread like a virus.  All those beach goers will scramble back home with it.  The Russian reaction will be key to determining just how badly this strike hurt them. 
Now the war is not over.  This was not positively decisive, at least not yet.  The UA will have to follow up with more of these, humans are also able to ignore reality - which is paradoxical I know.  More of these strikes will build up pressure until something gives.  But for the west, this is a clear demonstration that our proxy is not only still in this thing, it demonstrates they are getting better at it.  Better they are emulating warfare we recognize - high precision deep strikes on clear military targets with almost zero collateral civilian casualties.  Nice, clean and very western - worth investing more into.
I have heard at some pretty high levels the idea that "Russia has shifted this war into one that favors them"...well strikes like these send the message that Ukraine is shifting it back.  May have been a 'one-off' or a lucky day; however, it is going to cause the Russians a lot of hot and bother to figure that all out...and in a war, that is good communication.

shrug.  I could care less what sort of humor the Russians take it in.  They are in the find out phase of this war.  If they want the war to end all they have to do is withdraw back to pre 2014 borders.  It's pretty simple.

shrug.  I could care less what sort of humor the Russians take it in.  They are in the find out phase of this war.  If they want the war to end all they have to do is withdraw back to pre 2014 borders.  It's pretty simple.

shrug.  I could care less what sort of humor the Russians take it in.  They are in the find out phase of this war.  If they want the war to end all they have to do is withdraw back to pre 2014 borders.  It's pretty simple.

shrug.  I could care less what sort of humor the Russians take it in.  They are in the find out phase of this war.  If they want the war to end all they have to do is withdraw back to pre 2014 borders.  It's pretty simple.

Strategically, I’d place the attack on the airbase in Crimea on the same level as the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo!