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Lethaface

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  1. Like
    Lethaface reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ugh! I guess that can happen when you use 40 years old technology and ride to war with it. There was a reason why the turret was upgraded to 2A5 and Stridsvagn 122 standards in the mid 90s.
  2. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    in Bakhmut area HIMARS has struck on one of vehicles of EW complex "Borisoglebsk-2" - for supression of satellite communications and radionavigation systems (near miss, but probably damaged) and artillery radar Zoopark-1 (destroyed - one missile, not shown on video hit nearny aside, the second likely was more accurate)
     
  3. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Saving private Fox
     
  4. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's typically for Russian style - to fight with enemy's offensive not by tough defense, but by fierce and continuos counter-attacks. Probably in such way Russian art of war understand the term "active defense". During WWII classical example tank battle near Brody in 1941.
    We had seen this around Svatove and Kreminna and Russians indeed managed to "extinguish" attacking striving of UKR forces. Though, we hadn't ebough strike fists on this direction and likely afetr Balakliya operation we hadn't any resourses to continue the offensive
    In the light of preparing of 36th MRB and 40th Naval infantry brigade of eastern falnk to counter attack on UKR troops, looks interesting today's official MoD statemmet that Ukrainian troops advanced on 1 km on Vuhledar direction (again, whitout naming the place) 
  5. Like
    Lethaface got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    He did have some close encounters with the Soviet apparatchik and their influence in '39 in Spain though.
  6. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Completely disagree with these three takes. 
    First two can be true if we say about 2014-2015. Further we have the same program of NATO training, a separate program of sergeant corps training. Of course, all depends from brigades command attitude and soldiers motivation to learn. Ukrainian training centers had very formal and not enough effective training program, more effective were different alternative programs, implementing with support of high command and NATO training.
    But for almost five years we already had enough good sergeant corps and enough trained experienced personnel. Though, as told UKR volunteer Roman Donik, who organized alterrnative training programs for riflemen and squad leaders, combat experience without knowledges how "military machine" should work during combat, leaves this experienced serviceman not as experienced soldier, but anyway as civilian with combat experience and this is two big differences. 
    "Prewar UKR military doesn't exist anymore" - we have obviously heavy losses (for Ukrianian scale) in dead and wounded among soldiers, who were in real service in 2022 and among "OR-1 first category" (retired contractors, who participated in ATO/OOS and were mobilized in first months). On 24th Feb 2022 we had only 178 000 of OR-1. How much personnel we really had on 24th Feb I can't say (according to the law about Armed Forces maximum number of pesonnel, including civilian servicemen was 246 000). I can suppose real picture was about 60 % of personnel in Ground Forces units. Taking to account that conscripts were adopting experience from servicemen and mobilized veterans, and taking to account overall number of veterans in about 250 000 at least, we can't say that now we have completely rooky army without "old blood". Again, all depends from brigades and command of brigades and batatlions, more exactly from their wish to be effective unit, or to be Soviet-style formalists, for which paper work and more valuable then effectiveness, or to be Russian-style butchers with moods "if unit has low level of losses, this means the unit fights bad" (alas, during Kherson offensive theer were reports about several battalion commanders, which boasted each before other how much of their personnel was lost during direct assaults as a sign of their "hard fight")
  7. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I know the full version of the press conference was already posted, but here is the part of it that a lot of people seemed to have noticed on Twitter. 😁
     
  8. Like
    Lethaface reacted to kohlenklau in First PBEM someone?   
    I throw down my leather glove!
    I would love to play that White Manor battle! Never did.
     
  9. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Starting to sound like Russian prime time TV in here...
  10. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Kraft in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    on the topic of Battlefront, and some undisclosed game, any hints about future expansions? I hope we'll see some balance tweaks, like vehicle/mine survivability etc etc
    I know Steve has a list!😄
  11. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Liveload in Small map pack   
    To be exact, war is a dark day for all mankind;
    some people inexorably find themselves pulled to it
    some ironically like a moth to the flame
    some like energy and matter to a collapsed star, no light escapes.
    To look in another beings eyes, see the suffering, the resentment, the hate...the despair...
    to then turn around, sit down and play a game with it...well that takes some suspension or disregard of...something that's within us all...but I have nothing better to do...
     
    These are mostly meant for H2H, but there's simple AI plans in there for QB's as well, just nothing fancy.
    Just something I threw together in spare time, Hope you all enjoy. (as always, feedback on the maps is appreciated)
  12. Like
    Lethaface reacted to hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I may be wrong but I think the word "undermined" should have read "underestimated". Noone here is defending Russia, but this forum does tend towards Russia sux lol sometimes. We can find buckets of videos of zek lemmings getting barbequed but Russia has a big army and there are pockets of competence (see the RUSI report). We should be mindful of that. 
  13. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't think they seem very effective either, just wondering if the Russians themselves ever justified them as a countermeasure to Javelins or if it was Western commentators who assumed that.
    Maybe they are reasonably effective against drone dropped cluster munitions or custom hollow-charge bombs - that doesn't mean they are protected against all the other threats of course.
    Could be a bit like the German Zimmerite anti-magnetic covering. Maybe it saved a couple of tanks from magnetic mines, but not exactly a miracle defence.
  14. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Are we sure we observe the same genocidal, simple war of conquest? If you are so afraid of "undermining" Russia, here is you adress of complains and source of all of the fuss : http://www.en.kremlin.ru/contacts
    You are not rightfully criticizning, you get whacked by arguments and are now doing another virtue signalling, while clearly parroting Putin propaganda matrix you saw on some Russian forum. And you don't even get that- that's btw. how propaganda of this type works. Its victims are always people who think of themselves as freethinkers, outside constraints of mainstream media, but who are in fact mentally not equipped to properly build their own worldview that would be anchored in both political realism and some basic ethics. Ukrainians and "American overlords" guilty of Larissa rail accident, USA building bases to "force" others to watch Micky Mouse, poor bombed Nazis in WWII etc. These are the same, unmistakeable symptoms of reducing everything toward symetristic bull*hit.
    I am more and more inclined to believe that if world in 1939 would have internet and contrarian keyboard warriors, whole Europe would be foocked royally, divided between Brown and Red totalitarian empires up to this day, doing whatever they want.
    Ok, I have enough of this, so where was this mute button...
  15. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I agree with almost everything you say. But I realize that I view this thread here (or, I guess, I'd just like it to be) much like you describe it: A place where people with various degrees of professional insight and experience rationally analyse what's going on.
    That is in parts a misconception, though, I think. It is also a place much like the fan forum of some sports team where people come to cheer on their team. There, no matter how good the other team might be, it's absolute heresy to point that out to other fans. There is nothing wrong with such a place and it's part of the fun.
    Things get difficult when both worlds mix, which is in a way what is going on here. People try to analyse but at the same time it is "their team" (Ukraine, NATO, etc) against the other team and some, I guess involuntarily, see it as their duty to defend their team and therefore to interpret observations in a way that makes their team look better. (Edit: Not meant to be judgemental, this is not some dry topic to study but something highly emotional - not "only" because it's war and people die but in addition because this is a wargaming forum where forumites are even more invested.) That leads to situations where people are told e.g. that they are just spreading Russian disinformation when just for voicing doubts. It leads to "group-think" of the sort: "if you don't agree you are obviously fan of the other team".
    You are right, there is never 100% proof for anything. Scientifically speaking that's because you can never prove a theory, you can only falsify it. Which is why it is never wrong to challenge a theory. On the contrary it is absolutely necessary.
    Ok, enough of that from a wannabe epistemologist like me. As Steve pointed out, there is something major going on in the meantime.
  16. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Let's talk about Maryinka and that video from 79th Brigade
    I prepared a draft transcript of the first ten minutes, which covered one battle. But, in order for you to understand what is going on, I created a map and a brief summary. Obviously, despite my best efforts, I could easily misunderstand something.

    UKR appears to have discovered an enemy force moving from Donetsk via road using a drone equipped with infrared imaging. There were four vehicles: one or two tanks and two or three BMPs. It's unknown where the infantry force came from; they might have dismounted from the BMPs. It appears to be an Assault group, which is usually approximately squad size, but this varies. It may begin with a strengthened squad of up to 15 soldiers, but by the time it reaches the target, there may only be 5-6 men left.
    The defending UKR troops waited among the ruins. According to radio traffic, there were two to three fire teams stretched out in front. The UKR HQ directed fire teams at RU AFVs. The fire teams used RPGs to disable at least two AFVs; the remainder fled; however one fire team was hit (at least one killed, one injured). Meanwhile, an RU assault group assaulted the corner. One fire team used small arms in an attempt to pin them down, while a second fire team guided by HQ moved to assist the first and showered RU soldiers with GP-25s. After that, the UKR arty finished the job, and the lone RU survivor fled.
    There are mostly three guys at HQ -  skinny bearded guy [at 00:57]. I suspect he is CO. Bulkier bearded guy [at 02:11] I suspect he is XO. He is guiding fire teams. And cleanly shaved guy [06:42] I suspect he is FIST guy.
    Some observations:
    Unlike the RU army, the UKR HQ does not appear to command and control fire squads. It's more like they guide and advise fire teams, although there is some degree of micromanagement - at one point, XO explicitly tells one fire team to grab AK and made aim shots like we do in CM with target order at something a unit hasn't seen yet. Both sides do not function in the traditional military configuration of platoon-company (I believe this is company headquarters). There are distributed attack teams/groups with radio links to HQ, and that's all there is to it. There is no reserve or another echelon nearby to continue the fight. This, I suppose, is due to the enormous threat of drone-adjusted arty. So, all help is a few kilometers away, and no one can come fast to help except a nearby team. Now the transcript. Please keep in mind the footage is not strictly chronological:
     
  17. Like
    Lethaface reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You can look through both.  
    And they actually both do the same thing - they take something that fills a small angle of your unaided view and make it fill a large angle.
  18. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Recovered Leo2 being towed for repairing
     
  19. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Battlefront.com @The_Capt @pintere
    So, at last, I have a time to translate opinion of Kostiantyn Mashovets (it has written about week ago), about what could happen on 7-8th of June and some earlier and why UKR troops involved on some directions modern Western equipment instead to use it after breaching Russian lines. Mashovets as usually writes too much, so I will post only some important takes. 
    In own sarcastic manner he called Russian reaction on these developments as "premature ejaculation" )
    Since 4th of June [as we remember on this day UKR troops leberated Novodarivka] Russian command frantically tried to figure out "is this IT or not IT yet?" Situation became questinable for Russian HQs as far as two weeks ago before 4th of June, when UKR troops became to conduct probes with platoon-company size forces on different sections of southern front. During these actions, for example, UKR troops managed to push off Russians from grey zone east from Velyka Novosilka on approaches to Novodonetske and Novomayorske villages. But decisisve became dates 4-6th of June, when to everybody was recommended "shut up". Because already at the moring of 7th of June Russian command encountered with a fact thatUKR troops very close to breach Russian defense line [he meant "skirmish line"] on directions Novodonetske - Kremenchyk, Novomayorske - Kremenchyk. Obviuosly, this caused real threat and Russian HQ decided - HERE IT! And Russains have reacted:
    - mass of masked "for time X" artillery positions opened fire and were quicly revealed.
    - most of reserves set in motion (8 brigades/regiments of 10, concentrated in this operational zone)
    - aviation component was actively used
    But in this moment happened UKR activation on western part of Zaporizhzhia front on direction Orikhiv - Tokmak and other. Russian HQs decided that everything, what is developing in V.Novosilka salient is just "distracting trick" and main strike obviously now is developing in western part of front.
    [My remark 1 - and 47th brigade on Bradleys and Leo2 was enogh good to ensure them in this. Remark 2 - likely UKR command could intentionallt to choose for this demoinstrative atatck more tough armor, being confident it can save much more lifes of soldiers, than it could do Soviet equipment. And this really worked - despite on enough big losses in armor, 47th brigade had only 5 KIA in this day]     
     But situation in zone of responsibility of Troops Grouping "East" (western part of Zaporizhzhia front) became more hard than they expected. Point is that, Russian comamnd deployed own troops in two echelones,and to skirmish line was detached relatively not so large number of troops. Main forces were deployed on the range 20-30 and sometieme 40 km (the same 10 brigades and regoments). So, when UKR troops attacked along different sections, commanders on "skirmish line" strating from company level and higher became to demand reserves in very hysterical manner, saying about "critical situation". Due to some objective and technical reasons Russian HQs were unable to verify this information and were forced to take on trust [Putin's appeal to militaries on eve with words about "personal responsibility" also coul play evil joke - nobody didn't want to risk with own head if UKR trops really would breach from direction, where company X begged reserves] 
    All that caused this "premature ejaculation" - masked positions of artillery were involved on 100 %, reserves continuosly moved along main line and toward skirnish line and of course, all these movement were tracked by UKR intelligence and recon units. For theese first days UKR had been striking 30 of Russian revealed artillery units level battary and battlion, using guided ammunition and HIMARS. 48 artillery pieces and MLRS were taken out in these strikes. Were destroyed also up to 50 of combat vehciles and 25-30 of suply trucks. Also on skirmish line were destroyed 12 T-54/62, using as fixed armored fire positions. 
    But more inetersting, despite all this mess HQ of TG "East" likely to this time couldn't decide for themselves - "is this IT or not IT yet?"
     
    As addition his other article - but very short. He claims Russian command made startegical mistake moving strategic reserves to reinforce distracting offensive actions on Kupiansk direction in order to force UKR command to move reserves to Kupiansk and in this way to weaken UKR offensive on Zaporizhzhia front. But UKR troops suddenly activated on Bakhmur direction. Russians expected UKR troops will be able here only to tactical actions, so they didn't pay attantion on "fights for tree-plants" around Bakhmut... Untill... Until each day per 100-200-500 m of UKR advance put Ruusian TG "South" in Bakhnut in very discomfort situation. Additionally, UKR command periodically was making short pauses in advance, so Russians had imagination of fading out of UKR activity. But during this pause UKR command slightly was increasing own forces and repeating attacks. So instead of "stabilizatiot" Russians got additonal headache and now must think how to distribute free reserves for three directions only inside Siversk - Bakhmut front.     
  20. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry, could not resist:

  21. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    AFU PzH2000 crew in action and enjoying some java.
  22. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    How about a CB mission forcing Russians to abort and displace? or RUS helicopters forcing the artillery to shut down to deconflict?
    I must say I am not convinced by the Russians just electing to conserve ammo/guns,  with such a juicy target, in their place I would keep shooting even I had only practice rounds left and/or the barrels actually burst
  23. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That I agree with. GMLRS relocating means some Ruzzians have just been promoted to the "good" category. Un marchand de mort subite.
  24. Like
    Lethaface reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Riiiight.  So the Russians do not have a history of lying about things in this war?  I mean why would they lie about this..hmmm, let’s see.  Well to hide their operational shortfalls and weaknesses would be the first big one.  The second would be to over inflate their success for domestic consumption.  A third would be self-interest, the RA commander definitely does not want to highlight any issue he may have had in this fight.  A fourth could be simply…it is the Russian narrative method - the same folks who brought us hundreds of destroyed Abrams and “those warcrimes were crisis actors”.
    Look, your point on us not becoming a pro-Ukraine propaganda echo chamber is taken. However, I am not ready to take the RA commanders record of events after it has been pushed through the Russian state media machine as a reliable data point.  Particularly when the visual evidence does not support it.  An interesting thing about the 10th man principle is that the strength of the devils advocate position is a key consideration - and so far it is fairly weak.
  25. Like
    Lethaface reacted to Pete Wenman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If the Russian narrative can be believed it seems the mines and arty were enough to stall the breach before ATGMS started to hit the UKA armour. As @The_Capt previously stated it does not seem that everybody piled on from the RUS side at that time however, and so the UKA forces were able to withdraw, even if on foot, rather than be destroyed. 

    Not sure either side will be really pleased with the outcome, as I suspect both will think they could have dealt with the situation better
    P
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