dan/california

My guess is that Russia gambles on a freeze in '25 and tries to grab as much territory for a better position in the bargain. The losses from the war don't bother Putin politically (and in every other aspect) so every additional square meter is a win for him.
Militarily, the Kharkiv thing doesn't make sense, but politically it does. If they could, they would create more similar areas. Unfortunately, Ukraine cannot respond in kind.

Ok.  I guess my first question is “what does this really give us?”  I like the idea of mixed potent light tanks but these are still 1) highly visible, 2) will have long logistics tails and 3) very expensive - you specifically are porting tech from F-35s (eg transparent hulls).  So for all that money we get:
- a 105 direct fire gun
- a 40mm gun
- ATGMs 
- and a drone control platform
The problem immediately is that I can get all that effects-wise with distributed light infantry, PGMs and drone swarms at much less cost and far harder to see and hit.  We just had a video of the drone control platform being four guys in a basement.  The direct fires support is already being replaced by PGM artillery and FPVs…and ATGMs are..well already man-portable.  Why stick them on a heavy vehicle when I can simply put them on fast dismounts all over the place?  I can put them on a quad bike for mobility. Or better yet a UGV.
To my mind this is a novel re-think of the system that assumes we still need the overall system to deliver effects when it is becoming clear we really don’t.  I do not see how this new tank platoon is going to fare much better in say 10 years. Drones will be fully autonomous by then with new forms of stand-off attack. ISR will be even more ubiquitous. PGMs will be everywhere. These are lighter than current MBTs but still are 30t hot steel that rely on ground movement and direct fire. This kind of looks like trying to invent a better horse in 1918.

Don't you think that armor will just have a new incarnation? One in which top and side armor is designed to combat the threats of these small inexpensive drones.  May take 5-7 years...  Who knows. With CAD Systems the development time may be slashed.

Some thoughts on how to do tanks here:
I believe that the tank needs to change a lot, but with my concept they can become relevant again. They are smaller, more lethal and bring their own drone swarm... 
Edit - haha Probus, I think I just answered your question the moment you asked it!
Edit 2 - hit me with your criticism everyone - I am interested if you can pick holes in my design. 

How many encirclements has Russia succeeded at so far in the war?  They've struggled mightily to fail at encircling even a few km^2 of villages that have a single road intersection.  As pointed out by Steve and @The_Capt, Kharkiv is a huge area of very hostile environment to even attempt.  And that they failed miserably at when they had at least the pretense of surprise and fresh troops and their best equipment.
 
Russia might have an artillery tube advantage, but Ukraine likely has sufficient "action at a distance" and untouchable ISR to limit that.  Russia can't just park a few battalions of tubes and send shells for days - they'll be spotted on their way to park and drones will get them within a few rounds if they don't move.  So they can probably launch a long steady harassing fire on Kharkiv, but attempting to level it at this point would require tactical nukes, and if Putin hasn't gone there yet, I don't think he's going to go there just to level Kharkiv. If he were considering doing that, why bother with a ground attack?

Yeah, I would expect that by this point, any "Russians wouldn't do X because it's too inhuman" has been thoroughly debunked for all possible X.
Just like the claims "they did the initial invasion in a way to limit the damage" are just Russian apologia. They specifically targeted hospital and kindergartens and did the whole Bucha thing in the initial invasion.

These comments do not make any sense:

First off the RA would need to push an encirclement nearly 200kms long.  That is being attacked from without while trying to take a city of 1.4 million and 350 sq kms of urban terrain.  For reference, Mariupol was 166 sq kms and the Russian were controlling it for hundreds of kms both land and water side...and it still took them over 3 months and an ungodly number of losses to take.  In fact there are some theories that Mariupol tied down so many RA forces that their summer '22 failed and it set the conditions for the losses in Fall '22.  Kharkiv is 3-4 times the problem, and the UA was nowhere near as well armed and experienced back in '22. "Encircling Kharkiv" is so militarily stupid that the Russian's might even try it but it may cost them so much as to create conditions for operational collapse elsewhere.
As to LOCs, one need only look at the map to see all of the interior lines that are still open. There is both MSRs and rail.  As to terrain, a quick look shows that the terrain to the west of the city is the same rolling tank country we have come to suspect...with no tank play likely.  To the east there is a major water obstacle that will tie in a right flank tightly.
I mean unless the UA collapses completely this is a major operation to pull off...think a couple hundred thousand troops and air superiority.
Finally, this is the double standard.  The UA establish a bridgehead south of Kherson and it is "a minor raid".  The RA make some minor bridgehead gains on the border and "they are encircling Kharkiv!" In reality this is a secondary front that the RA is trying to open up, likely in the hopes it can take some pressure off the south.  But like everything else, RA offensive-wise, these will likely be nips and bites.  Unless the UA collapses completely, at which point this is all pretty academic in the entirety of Eastern Ukraine.  Of course we have no indications of impending UA collapse, but hey why let that stand in the way?

I could see Western Europe throwing in the towel pretty easily, honestly, in the same of “oh the humanity” and cheap gas. In fact, I’d bet even if Trump was willing to sell weapons, the Germans would fold and push for “peace”. They’d be happy to get more non-African young population for sure.
That said, I’m not completely convinced Trump would abandon Ukraine, and I’m also not convinced Trump has that easy a path to winning, since probably 25% of his own party will not vote for him under any circumstance.

In theory we could do that, but I think that if the biggest and most powerful country in NATO pulled out, the minor countries would soon conclude that the war was lost. EU countries would start talking about the horrible humanitarian impacts of war, and how we must have peace now.
Ukraine might keep fighting for some time, but without continued external support, they would eventually be defeated, as they have said so themselves several times. I don't even think it would take that long, since it would be a major hit to morale. So even inside Ukraine, there would be increased political pressure for a negotiated settlement to keep at least part of Ukraine independent.
Zelensky would leave the stage one way or the other, and a new Ukrainian leader would emerge to sign the deal Trump would strike with Putin: Peace in return for Russia keeping Crimea and the eastern "republics". And Ukrainian NATO membership not officially cancelled but indefinitely postponed.

To avoid this mental trap it suffices to remember that the Russians will react, somehow. Their reaction will be better or worse, but they will not allow the line on the graph showing the number of remaining IFVs or artillery or ammunition to merrily continue on its current way and hit zero. They will do something to change the trajectory t e.g. by switching more to meat waves, or reducing tempo of operations, etc. The thing is, they will incur extra costs or lose opportunities by switching from their preferred action to the less preferred action.
So when thinking about what will happen next in a war one should not extrapolate the present into the future ad infinitum but try to anticipate the opponent's reaction and be prepared to explore the inefficiencies forced upon him- the sum of which is eventually going to lose him the war. At least that's the plan.
PS. This is basic stuff for any war or any opposed action, really. The mistakes like the Werhmacht General Staff thinking should not really happen. But they do happen, in particular to armies fighting the Russians. I think that Russian peacetime armies when they transition to war habitually look so incredibly and obstinately stupid, that their opponents start to believe they are permanently unable to adapt. But they do, just very slowly at the beginning. But after 2-3 years of war they hit their stride.

In the event of the Trump Russia anti woke alliance, I am rooting for Europe against them. If that makes me a dirty commie traitor so be it. 

My rational guess is also pre-programming.
But that is not I want it to be.
What I imagine is Ihor and Danylo from the UA SOF in a jeep with a 60mm mortar in the trunk, 1000s of km behind the frontline like in the good old stories of 2022. 
This is what the dreams of men are made of. 

They could use the Russian cellular network, for instance. Shouldn't be that hard to get a Russian SIM.
Or maybe they don't need to at all. Oil refineries are big and very stationary targets. With modern vision systems, this could be preprogrammed as well.

This is the kind of thing I would like to see more of:
 
 

Ignoring Trump for the moment as I personally don't think that he is the determining factor.  The war will not end regardless of the US.  This is Ukraine's decision and EU support will continue.  Not sure why you assume the EU will just follow the US on this.  What could happen is a drop in US support levels but there are many in the GOP who want to continue support for Ukraine to the point they helped force the vote in the house despite Trump.  It is worth watching the response to MGT's motion to vacate on C-Span.  She got booed from both sides of the aisle for what was essentially her reaction to Ukraine aid passing.
Russia has made clear what it wants from this war and those demands are not ones Ukraine can or will concede to.  If there is a push you can be sure that references to Munich "peace in our lifetime" will be blasted everywhere.

Not really for this forum but don't be so sure, so quickly..
Trump can't even get 100% votes of the core Republican base. Nikki Haley who stood down from the primary campaign has gotten close to 20% of the Republican base in vital swing states without campaigning!!!
There are a lot of Republicans that won't be fooled a second time around and will vote Biden instead.
You should look more carefully at what is actually happening than assume he will win. There are some strong headwinds, and not just his potential jail time for contempt of court.
Personally I would comfortably bet some donuts that he won't be reelected...
 

One point missed on the Trump thing:  he has borrowed money from RU oligarchs.  We know this because his son admitted it on video ~10 years ago or so.  He was mocking the US banks the wouldn't loan to the serial defaulter anymore and said (paraphrase) 'we just borrow from RU instead'.  Also RU oligarchs had bought some of his properties at oddly non-market prices, leading to some wondering about money laundering.  So when we talk about what Trump would do we need to recognize the very high probability that he is on some level a leveraged RU asset.  And his behavior toward Putin/RU has certainly been like that over the years.  
Plus Zelensky refused his extortion racket which led to Trump's first impeachment (he was completely guilty, by the way).
So pretending he'd be doing anything statesmanlike or diplomatic is absurd.  He would serve Putin and abandon Ukraine.  

54th Brigade (K-2 drone unit) stops a 3 wave mechanised attack of more than a dozen vehicles.
Video has good english CC translation and explanations
 

Robin Williams had a great gag about men having both a brain and a penis, but only enough blood to run one of them at a time.

I understand it was a simple case of”d#$k gets hard, brain gets soft!”

Three different stories in Defense One that indicate the army is learning from the Ukraine war.