dan/california

They have fought like Spartans but smarter. Just saw a credible report that the French Foreign Ministry thinks the Russians are not negotiating seriously. I wonder if Putin's on generals know that, I wonder if the colonels do. Because the upper midlevel command on the ground must have pretty good idea how badly they NEED to be negotiating. The four dead generals and twenty odd other senior officers being exhibit A. the Ukrainians need to start putting it out there that the first couple of senior officers to surrender their whole units get an apartment in Brazil, a Ukrainian passport, and some cash.

Can you imagine the pressure Zelensky is under. He is 96% percent sure he is winning, but he can't be sure how many days/weeks it will take to actually win. Everyone of those days probably cost a thousand civilian lives with 100 of them children, every day is at least another 100,000 refugees, and, and...  And he soldiers on acting like a sane person. If He has made bad call since the Russian tanks rolled I don't know what it was. Just incredible!

okay so this whole thing about us only seeing one side of the battle.. who's fault is that?  Folks here are avidly combing ANYTHING they can get.  There was a post a while back where the Russians were showing off a couple items they'd captured.  There has been some analysis of the UKR retreat from around Kherson.  The problem is there is a huge dearth of decent info/video from the Russian side.  We get our best info on Russian successes from Haiduk and radio intercepts of freaking out Russians. Oh wait yeah that doesn't reflect successes.  Nor does the 4 count em 4 dead Major Generals.
Want to guess why that might be the case?  It is 20 days now since the Russian Blitzkrieg launched an attack from the Belarus border towards Kiev which is 60 freakin miles away and they still aren't there.  Putin just keeps saying they are still on plan.  Which f'n plan is that?  last I'd heard the plan was to be in Kiev in 3 days.
Brovary is only 13 miles away so if the Russian plan is just to build up an arty park, they are already in range.
Let's stop pretending like the fog of war is hiding the possible truth that the war is going Russia's way even if slowly.  I am not sure Ukraine has enough tractors to haul away the whole Russian army, but they are making a pretty heroic effort.

Unreal, but given what we’ve learned about the over centralized nature of the Russian military, lack of secure communications, GPS, NVG and other equipment the West takes for granted, the Russians may be bunching up to maintain command and control…they have no choice and can’t adapt quickly.

This has to be sign of near complete failure of the Russian force structure doesn't it? Over, and over we keep asking how they can be that incompetent? Gloriously happy this guy is alive and free, can't imagine bigger propaganda win for the Ukrainians, and that is saying something.

Brings home the sad reality, all strength to those Ukrainians who continue...

oh for fk's sake.  What is he going to invade with?  That's like the neighbor's 5 year old threatening to punch me.  They'll never even get to Ukraine's western border. This is just bluster for them to feel powerful.  They aren't.  The emperor isn't wearing any clothes.  Hell there was a guy from Norway here posting about whether his unit might actually have held the line if Russia had invaded as the Russian army is so inept.
 
here is a realistic Russian threat.
Putin Retaliates by Blocking Biden Family Vacations to Moscow (msn.com)

It doesn't matter what capabilities of Russia is. Like at all.
Even with their godawful army of inbreds they still dropped a bomb on a civilian shelter with a thousand civilians.
So who cares if next time their army turns into sunflowers before Kherson, not after?
This is Russia. There always will be the next time unless they know they are going against not one, but ten strongest armies and it will be an end of Russia scenario.

Not nearly enough Congress.
Russian tanks getting wrecked in Mariupol:
 

OFFICIAL ANSWER OF UKRAINE ON FT INFORMATION
This is a draft of Russian side wishes. No more. We have own position. 
 
Looks like Russian information pressure. 
 
 

Ok, I'll repeat it once again - Russia doesn't care if we get in NATO or EU.
Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014 when it was predominantly AGAINST NATO (65%) and bordering on 50% for EU and having neutral status in Constitution.
Russia wants to fully occupy Ukraine. There's nothing else that will ever "play well" with Russia.

Unsuppressed S-300 forces all tactical aviation down into MANPADS envelope.

The Ukrainians are not going to let the Russians reorganize at leisure.

The Ukrainians are not going to let the Russians reorganize at leisure.

It took the utter military, political and economic destruction of Germany to "wipe the slate". There was no possibility of a grievance, "lost cause" type come-back. The allies had to literally stomp on the Germans, in person, and stay there for years, for the reset to take hold.
That's not going to happen here, with Russia. No one is going to occupy Moscow, except maybe some coup forces.
Swapping out one 70 year old Bastard for a less bastardly stupid, middle aged Bastard is really all that can be hoped for.

The most puzzling thing for me as of yet is, that they all seem to abandon their tanks without any effort to make them combat inefficient for the enemy. In case of those VDV unit in the vid. I guess there are some HUGE disciplinarian problems we yet know nothing about. Also the fact that the belorus army is yet to be seen on ukrainian soil leads me to believe that the card house will collapse soon. Yes I agree, we might see surrender of the russian soldiers any day from now on. I would be surprised if they would slog on for further 10 days.

I really disagree with the last part of this. The west tried this approach with Russia after the Soviet Union collapsed and here we are. I think Russia should be left to itself. So it gets "closer" to China. Really it just gets more economically dependent on China. Really that should be a positive for the west as it drains China's resources for little to no gain and not ours. Haven't they been friends this whole time anyway, or at least friends when it suits them (against the west). I think that until Russia has a complete change of hearts/politics it will continue to be a thorn in the side of the western nations. That change has to come from within, by their own choice and no amount of foreign investment is going to do that. All that it will do is prop them up so they can be a bigger pain in the butt than they can achieve on their own.
What should be done is all that money pumped into the Ukraine and build them up like post war Germany and Japan. They hate Russia so they will be a staunch ally and a great counter to their efforts in that area. They have the resources, population and location to be a very successful nation and would be a great addition to the EU and NATO. If Sweeden, Finland and Ukraine are admitted into NATO Russia is effectively canceled in the west. 
Play those cards and Russia effectively becomes the old drunk guy in the corner of the international bar boasting about his glory days in high school that everyone eye rolls and ignores.
It's really too bad that China doesn't see this as an opportunity for expansion. They should be thinking "Wow, who knew they sucked so bad?" and decide to de-nazify eastern Russia. Take everything east of the Urals, gain the massive resources they seek and probably face very little back lash from the rest of the world. It would be funny if they used the same narrative that Putin has against him. I know it won't happen, but more because that scenario is guaranteed to go nuclear, not because they are "friends". 

That strikes me more as a propaganda move or to put pressure on the Ukrainians, it will be weeks at least before they show up on the front lines and there should be a ceasefire agreement by then.

Javelins are used, it's just that they weren't filmed in any cool cinematic way because they aren't as omnipresent as NLAW and aren't as safe to use as Stugna.
But there is a video that was released just yesterday where two of our guys at the front lines were talking about how on the first day they shot 5 javelin missiles from their position, taking out two tanks and two APCs before finally getting spotted by another tank and getting knocked out by a shock wave... and then escaping hospital after only a week to get back into the fight where they are now - and once again armed with Javelins.
So those are used alright.

As brave as the guy firing the NLAW  from 50 meters.
Edit she has been "detained"

I wouldn't want to argue with him about it, some very small percentage of people just like combat, just the way it has always been. He has a legally issued hunting license from the Ukrainian government, no limit stated, If the Russians don't like it they can go home.

As brave as the guy firing the NLAW  from 50 meters.
Edit she has been "detained"

Hopefully this is not a re-post
A very emotional video clip
Ukrainian Pianist Plays A Final Rendition Of Chopin In The Ruins Of Her House
 

Don't think it was abandoned.  I think it was ineffective.  It was fired and then fell to the ground without exploding and apparently short of wherever it was aimed?  It looks as if the motor has burned out.  Which just says one more thing about Russian effectiveness of everything so far.

Russians using strategic bombers is not escalation. They ran out of ground and naval launched Iskander/Kalibr missiles.
It's more like a full on panic mode "let's throw all the **** at Ukraine, my god, make them stop resisting SOMEHOW"