TheVulture

I think he's saying that both countries are extremely unlikely to have shared their plans with anyone else (i.e each other) based on those traits.

I think he's saying that both countries are extremely unlikely to have shared their plans with anyone else (i.e each other) based on those traits.

I think he's saying that both countries are extremely unlikely to have shared their plans with anyone else (i.e each other) based on those traits.

I think he's saying that both countries are extremely unlikely to have shared their plans with anyone else (i.e each other) based on those traits.

Particularly Avdiivka is not "strategic offensive", but it shouldn't be considered as something separate and local. 
First. Political reasons. Of course everybody know Putin will win presidental elections in 2024, but Russian authorities critically need any significant success on frontline to boost it in media as confirmation of right startegy of war, which will lead to future victory.
But Russian authorities play dangerous game. There are rumors about conflict between Gerasimov and some generals, who keep Putin in warm bath (or Putin, who want to be in warm bath - no matter). Gerasimov demands immediate mobilization of 300 000 people in order to prepare them for several month, else as if he claims, exists a real risk of catastrophe if UKR troops early of later break through southern front. Because will no reserves to stop them by weakened units. As alternative he offered to withdraw troops to Tokmak to save their capabilities, but this was rejected. So, Russian authotities in front of coming elections can't do both unpopular things - neither to make "a gesture of free will", nor announcing mobilization, because this can rise social unstability and entail additional significant expences. 
So, was choosen the variant of alsmot simultainous offensive operations in four locatins, which if all four are successfull, this can be sold as "4 Putin's strikes" (by analogy with 10 Stalin's strikes) or as "Strategical offensive", "radical fracture of the war" etc.  But if only one of them is successful this also can be sold by TV-propaganda. According to probability theory if you try more, you have more chances to get the desired result.
So these operations are:
- Kupiansk (we retook large railroad node! We revenged Balakliya! )
- Lyman (we liberated heroical town! We threw UKR in Oskol river! We revenged Balakliya!). According to Mashovets Lyman operation can be most complicated in four stages and now we can see the first stage in Makiivka area.
- Avdiivka (we encircled and destroyed southands of banderites in heavy fortified )
- Novomykhailivka (we secure our new railroad which we built from Rostov through Mariupol and Volnovakha) 
And looks like Russian political and military leaders main bet put on Avdiivka. Here should be classical Soviet-style blitzkrieg with artyllery wall of fire, massive airstrikes and bulk attacks of the armor. Avdiivka has open terrain, not so forestry and riverine like Kupiansk and Lyman and more fiercely defended by UKR, then "unpopular" Novomykhailivka, so TV will get nice picture.
Here opinions of around-mulitary TG "Colonel Shuvalov" - Avdiivka was a main bet. 

According to other Russian TG Avdiivla operation had to be finished with full success up to 4th of November - new Russian holiday, actively boostng by state propaganda - "The Day of national unity" (timed to "expelling of Polish intervents from Moscow in 1612). 
Here is Russian forces involved in this operation (by Mashovets). I notice, that Avdiivka operation is not only near the town itself - this is zone from Pisky/Pervomaiske on NW to Krasnohorivka/Novokalynove and N-20 road on the north 
Main forces - 1st Army Corps of DPR of 8th CAA of Southern military district
Additional forces: elements of 150th and 20th MRDs of 8th CAA, 21st motor-rifle brigade of 2nd CAA, Central military district, couple of Territorial Troops regiments 
Total:
Separate motor-rifle brigades - 8
Motor-rifle and tank regiments - 15
Separate rifle regimenys - 11
Separate tank battalion - 1
Separate motor-rifle battalion - 1
Separate rifle battalions - 22
BARS and Shtorm Z units of about battalion size - 3
Reserves:
Separate motor-rifle brigade - 1 (21st motor-rifle, already entered to the battlle north from Krasnohorivka)
motor-rifle regiments - 3
rifle reserve batatlions - 7
BARS - 1
But all this armada has uneven level of personnel and vehicles staffing
 
 

This is really irking me right now.  First we  see the nonsense that Ukraine war & terrorist attacks by Hamas are somehow part of some scheme, which is of course true because .....they are contemporary in time?????
I see idiotic, imbecilic new narrative being built where somehow aid to Israel precludes aid to Ukraine.  Israel already has 10,000X the military power of Hamas.  Maybe they'll need to be back stopped on shells, but not at anything close to the level that UKR goes through.  Could people just use their damn brains and not just swallow these obviously absurd narratives without question?  Jesus, this is infuriating.  It's like watching the pied piper hypnotize children.

Ugh, can we not.  Unless we can see some hard evidence that links these two events, then we are basically in “bio-lab” territory.
A tactical counter offensive in Ukraine somehow linked to the largest terror attack in Israel’s history (might largest since 9/11) is just too much of a stretch with what we do know.  It opens up the door to all sorts of pro-Russian, or pro-Ukrainian conspiracy theories that have no grounding in facts.  

So the US, UK, Germany and Norway have all announced this week military aid with substantial air defence and anti-drone components.  Guess we know what was top priority on Ukraine's wish list at the moment.

Being cynical, a full strength formation has around 300 vehicles. How many a DNPR formation has at this point in the war might be a different matter. Although one would assume they'd be re-stocked to some extent when being thrown in to the main assault of the last few months, but them with Russia, all bets are off: as we've seen, they do things differently there.

Being cynical, a full strength formation has around 300 vehicles. How many a DNPR formation has at this point in the war might be a different matter. Although one would assume they'd be re-stocked to some extent when being thrown in to the main assault of the last few months, but them with Russia, all bets are off: as we've seen, they do things differently there.

So the US, UK, Germany and Norway have all announced this week military aid with substantial air defence and anti-drone components.  Guess we know what was top priority on Ukraine's wish list at the moment.

With the Russian attacks on Avdiivka, I can imagine two main scenarios:
* Russia feels comfortable with their defensive situation around Tokmak so they can afford the forces for the attack
* Russia's position around Tokmak is precarious and this is an attempt to relieve pressure by either faking the idea they have sufficient reserves,  or  Hitler-esque belief in the decisive nature of offensive action to solve problems.
What are the key bits of evidence to look for in the coming days that might indicate one way or the other?

So the US, UK, Germany and Norway have all announced this week military aid with substantial air defence and anti-drone components.  Guess we know what was top priority on Ukraine's wish list at the moment.

The ISW touched on this a few weeks ago ( https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2023 )
 

So the US, UK, Germany and Norway have all announced this week military aid with substantial air defence and anti-drone components.  Guess we know what was top priority on Ukraine's wish list at the moment.

So the US, UK, Germany and Norway have all announced this week military aid with substantial air defence and anti-drone components.  Guess we know what was top priority on Ukraine's wish list at the moment.

With the Russian attacks on Avdiivka, I can imagine two main scenarios:
* Russia feels comfortable with their defensive situation around Tokmak so they can afford the forces for the attack
* Russia's position around Tokmak is precarious and this is an attempt to relieve pressure by either faking the idea they have sufficient reserves,  or  Hitler-esque belief in the decisive nature of offensive action to solve problems.
What are the key bits of evidence to look for in the coming days that might indicate one way or the other?

I believe the expression “hindsight is 20/20” refers to prefect vision for a reason. Was this scenario of the ongoing offensive possible outcomes in the overall plan? Of course it was! Was it significant risk of the plan? Probably, but just speculation. Did the risk of tough Russian resistance and slow grinding progress make the Ukrainians reconsider? Well, no!
The option of not moving forward would not necessarily entice the Russians to attack. On the contrary it just enable them to dig deeper and wider defenses. Getting the ball rolling was partly about disrupting the ongoing defensive preparations of Russia. Imagine waiting until late spring knowing what they built in 4-5 months. We’d be looking at bunkers and not trenches as defensive fortifications.
Reality for our assessment is obviously prior expectations. We learn from experience, see the outcomes, expect similar if things are conducted in similar fashion. Just look at the beginning of the offensive, it didn’t work as planned (better for the long term) to roll up all that armor against prepared defenses. We keep saying, lack of air superiority, sure would help. But Iraq and Afghanistan didn’t have the air defenses and capabilities Russia has. Nor is the USAF involved in this conflict with overwhelming numbers and resources.
I am not so sure the F-16 will make the difference we are expecting them to yield. We again start from assumptions based on prior experience in other circumstances.
The more I look back at high intensity fighting not involving the US directly, the more I start to think this shouldn’t been unexpected. We were initially expecting boxing match between pro-boxer against amateur. Turns out that Ivan Drago underestimated his opponent, and suddenly we have ourselves street brawl where all bets are off. We can’t expect the fight to resemble anything we seen as few of us ever witnessed street fighting. Most of us will think it resembles the movies, when it in reality its short, brutal and unpredictable.

This is kind of the same logic that terrorists use when killing civilians in Europe and USA.
 

I believe this is a new aid package from Germany
 

In Ukraine, both sides have modern integrated air defence systems,  with MANPADS, short range air defences, and longer range systems all the way up to patriot / s-300 / s-400 systems with huge ranges over 100km. They have the operational depth to locate these systems 10s of kms from the front line to help protect and conceal them. They have integrated radar systems, an air force with interceptors, and (to an unknown degree) at least potential access to airborne and space based intelligence gathering systems.
In Israel, one of the sides has this (more or less), while hamas has no air defences beyond whatever manpads they've managed to smuggle in past the Israeli and Egyptian blockades, and a territory that is a few km wide at its widest point, and an opponent that started from a position of such military superiority for decades than any attempt to build a meaningful air defence system (in their tiny territory) would be detected and destroyed long before it was even marginally effective - assuming they could even find a route to get a significant system in theatre without it being intercepted. Hard to smuggle an s-300 through a small cross-border tunnel...

I believe this is a new aid package from Germany
 

I believe this is a new aid package from Germany
 

I believe this is a new aid package from Germany
 

I believe this is a new aid package from Germany