Eddy

Yes I believe the cathedral whose spire is 123 metres tall (404 feet) is a firm favourite amongst Muscovites

Yes I believe the cathedral whose spire is 123 metres tall (404 feet) is a firm favourite amongst Muscovites

Oh, this requires many writing, but this is impolite to ignore a question, so... 
On my opinion, rashism is a new form of agressive expansionistic and revanсhist ideology, offered by ruling elites to wide mass of Russians as state ideocratia.  This ideology based on of Euro-Asian philosophy of Dugin, "Russian World", "Moscow is Third Rome", USSR 2.0 conceptions. Motivation - whishes of revanchism and domination of Russain elites, which want a redistribution of economical and political influence spheres in the world, contesting the West in hybrid way in the form of restoration of lost Russain Empire (even not USSR) influence sphere and its expanding on other countries. 
Derashization will be VERY long process, which will take maybe two next generations and like said Poesel it will be almost useless for most of curerntly living population, because people over 35-40 years with big difficalty can change own mind settings. 
Because rashism is a product of symbiothic system of power and people's aspirations it has two forming components - outer and inner. Thus, to derashize a nation we have to strike on two components simultainously. Germans in most, I think, were affected only by outer component of nazism. German nation was more civilized and educated, than nations of USSR in 30th. So, German way: punish nazi + force demonstration to Germans consequenses of nazism + "don't ask don't tell" will be insufficient, because in Russian case big role plays inner factors of Russian mentality. So, I think, more proper example should be Japan, where local militaristic ideology also leaned on local mentality and traditions.    
So, outer factors:
- Neo-imperial phylosophy.  New authorities must recognize and condemn publicly Euroasian/ Russian World/ USSR 2.0 conceptions as neo-imperialistic and colonial. Their place should be near Mein Kampf for learning by hystorians.
- Ideocracy. Rashism now is a obligue state ideology like communism of USSR time. All state media provide only ideocratic messges. Alternmative thoughts and critic allowed only for minor aspects. If oppopse thougts appear on state TV as opponents of state mainstream, it's usually give like marginals and freaks. Remedy -  ideocracy must be destroyed. Returning real pluralism in media, like this was in early Yeltsin's times. Media have to show widely crimes of former Russian elites - both against other nations and against Russian people. Though, I must point that several investigations of independent Russian journalists about Putin's palaces and luxury life of oligarchs, which posessed almost all Russian actives and have been turning  income in own huge palaces and yachts, instead to develop Russia, almost didn't have responce from society. Most of Russians consider this is natural order of things for Russia. Though, anyway,  the big role in quick falling of USSR ideology played a role of Gorbachov's "glasnost", when millions for relatively short time learned about communist crimes and that West is not "rotten", but much more successfull, that Soviet paradise.
- "Ruling and ordering" party. Like Communist Party in USSR, modern "Unite Russia" plays the same role, providing ideocracy to regions. All other parties just a puppets, imitating democracy, even they criticize main party, lile Communists or LDPR. Remedy - establishing in future of real diffrent democracy political platforms. But on the time of "crossing period" Russian have to be ruled by "steel hand in velvet glove", leaning on some political force.
- Educational system. Ideocracy complete occupied all education system - from kindergardens to univercities. The vertical region government - educational department - director - teachers maintains state ideology line. Kids from small years have been learning "Russian supremacy" ideology, based on lessons of hystory, when Russia always held just wars for the sake of defending of oppresed, carry enlightmnent and freedom and always won, glorifying Russian weapon. All this backed up with endless cult of war with dressing in WWII uniform, kids "military parades" and as final stage membership in state paramilitary organizations like "Junior Army" or cossacks, studing in numerous classes in many usual scholls with reinforcement military and phisical training. All this also to the statemant "kids are not guilt". Of course, their choice can be caused by parents or teachers, but membership in "Junior Army" usually their deliberate choice. On other hand teachers are obedient performers of election falsifications, because voting points mostly located in schools and teachers usually are most of committee members. So the remedy - demilitarisation of schools, new course of history, releasing of teachers from the brutal pressure of officials, demanding to execute.
- Orthodox church. Despite in Russian Constitution claimed separating of church from the state, but indeed like in Tsar times, Church became a lean of state ideocracy and a tool of state power sacralization. The Church is a main conductor of "Russian world" and "Moscow is a Third Rome" conception as well as huge amount of weird anti-semith conspiracy. Church blesses Russian agreesision, Church is a provider of intolerance to other Christainic confessions and intolerance to other thinking. Church supports the cult of war - all can recall real devilish Main Military Cathedral, which looks like a God of War temple. The Church interferring more and more in everyday life of Russians. Church more and more sneak to education system, but not for some sort ethic or religion knowledges, really need for youngsters, but for implementing of "Russian world" ideology and typical Russian life principles, which form inner factors of rashism. Remedy - changing of Church leaders on more moderate, real expelling idecracy influence of Church from educational system.
- Cult of war and Great Victory. All Russian life pierced with mentions about wars and victories, public interactive demonstrations of weapon, parades, rallies like "Immortal regiment" etc. As I told cult of war tied with education and church. And Great Victory Cult now became the secob religion in Russia.  All this should be completely removed especailly on cross period. History of wars and role of Russian in its have to be studied based on science, not on ideocracy. 
Inner factors. There is very tough to fix moods and patterns, composed during centuries.
- Church role. Russian version of Orthodox faith provide several dangerous mind settings - do not rise against powers (sacralized power!) and be obedient to powers, abasement of person with a word "slave of the God", suffering and humility is a right way (so Russian belives that their dads and fathers sufferes and built great country, so they have to suffer for the some great goals), "pray, all the Will of God" (brings up life passivity and expectation some high-ranked official or some happen will help in their question), do not keen to achieve mundane goods and modern knowledges (for example several years ago Church representative stated the learning of English and other languages is really do not need for true Orthodox and number of school lessons of foreign languages in schools should be shortened). And in the same time Church leader lives in luxury mansions, use luxury cars and spent own time on yachts. This is Russia. 
- povetry breed to the craving to ostentatious wealth and envy to prosprity nations. Despite Church influence, all people want to live in prosperity. Though children of generations, who lived in communal flats with one toilet and kitchen on dozens persons and stood in long queus for Yugoslavian high boots inherited this wish to show own success, posession of expensive things and as a consequence own higer place in social hierarchy - from poor Buriatian village inhabitant, which son brought looted washing machine to middle class, to Russian businessmen and oligarchs, buying up expensive real estate around the world in order each can see his success. So, povetry traumas born an envy to prosperity nations and whishes to stockpile of wealth. Putin, for example, because of his tough childhood has this mind trauma.
- swaggering and feeling of own supremacy. This feature of national menthality was discribed many times by Russian classic writers. Because of "Special mission of Russian nation - nation of God-Bearers" ideas of Russian World concept, most of Russians believed they are special "spiritual" people, all around owes them ("because we won in WWII"). Even if he is "poor Buriatian", which took bank loan to spent own vacation in Egypt or Turkey he will behave himself as a middle-east sultan. He will be humilitate personnel or demonstratively disrespect the culture of other country or nation. Even Russian middle class, which fled to Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan is rescenting that there no road things in Russian, no Russian-speaking service (you must know Russian! Are you russophobs?), no employment if you doesn't know local langauge, no cinema in Russian, no school in Russian and too much "non-Russian" around at all, but well, we will change here everything soon!  So, this fearture of mentality is good soil for growing of chavinism.
- cruelty and inner agression. Despite "humanistic Russian culture", the value of life in Russia didn't cost even broken penny. Tough life, hard work, povetry, small salary, especially in deep province have been generating inner agression, developing into carving to alcohol and drugs, showdowns, crimes, harrasments in families, bullings in scholls. In many regions of Russia in last years developed "A.U.E." mass jail cruel sub-culture, involving teenagers. Such spite of so embitterd people enough easyly to support by agressive rhethoric on TV, steering in right direction, blaming in their misery "anglo-saxes", "US and FRS", "Eurogays", "NATO", "jude-massons conspiracy against Holy Russia ", "khokhols, traitors of Russian World" etc.
This list can be continued, but I stop here. There is need to re-educate at least two generations to fix some mentality bugs and instill humanistic values in order to turn the country of Orwel's 1984 into normal peaceful and potentially prospering state. Else the cycle depicted on the cartoon below will be endless

 

Sorry for interrupting a lovely conversation about a deeply relevant topic but we have an interesting UKR rumor

If somebody wasn't convinced that common EU defense policy is a complete dumpster fire, this Politico article explains it very nicely. Very well worth reading:
https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-olaf-scholz-defense-europe-strategic-autonomy-ukraine-war/

Yeah, I'm getting married tomorrow (it's 11 PM now in Poland, we are saying the vows at 2PM). Just as we speak the missus is getting annoyed that I nerd about the war on the internet  But it is 100% worth it!

This is a good thread 
I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

This is a good thread 
I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

Really a good read. He describes the short and long term effects that the mobilizations has on the Russian people and culture. TL;DR: it's really bad.

This is a very sober and to the point analysis, thanks for linking it.

And a new pair of underpants hopefully!

This is a good thread 
I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

Have a listen to the podcast that the @The_MonkeyKing linked to above if you've got the time (about 45 mins long). It's Michael Kofman and Rob Lee talking about that very subject. Here's the link again Betting It All on Black: Putin’s Partial Mobilization | Geopolitics Decanted by Silverado (simplecast.com)
TLDR: They are of the opinion it won't change the dynamics.

More I think about it this might very well be a 100% all in from Russia. The 300k figure is to confuse the wests response. 300k is the lowest figure that can give smoke screen for total mobilization.
They want to apply maximum pressure so the casualties and time spend would be minimized. Also not that much time for wests counter response. Also the internal political response might be though similar for lets say 30% or 100% mobilization. 100% mobilization would also be shorter in their logic, quicker victory.
Mobilization is expensive and cannot be sustained indefinably. As with everything, do it well, or don't do it at all.

https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/betting-it-all-on-black-putins-partial-mobilization-and-escalation-strategy-in-ukraine
Good point from Michael Kofman and Rob Lee.
Do not believe the 300k number for mobilization for a second. This is not even written on anything (not that would make it any better), this is just what the guy who lies always said in a speech.
What interest Russia would have in telling even a ballpark accurate numbers here? The opposite, huge risk.
Think about it; What would Russia say if it was conducting absolute maximum mobilization?
I think way too many people take the number as some sort of guide. Mistake.

You can cut that right out. This isn't a US political thread. 

That would be very difficult to do. But if they did it'd probably look something like this, in this region:
 

3 to 5 weeks.
Ukraine war: UK programme to train 'citizen soldiers' is expanding | UK News | Sky News
Although I did read somewhere there was a much longer staff training programme going on but typically I can't find the link now!

There is new and unexpected development with Sahih al-Bukhari saga. Previous I discussed two outcomes:
Reversal of the decision means Putin while somewhat weakened is still in charge No changes to decisions means power struggle is happening, and Putin is severely weakened However, today Kadyrov announced over Telegram he needs - indefinite and long vacation from his post Head of Chechnya. Text of post:
For those who is unaware of RU power games - Kadyrov would never leave his post voluntarily. He is a notorious war criminal with many enemies inside and outside of RU. There is no a happy quiet life for him after retirement. And he is the only protection Chechens have against another attempt of genocide by RU army.
Let's look closely at the video of announcement:
Full transcript is below (Yes, he talks like this in RU and "don" is parasitic word in Chechen language)
 
If we pull the most useful phrases out of this mess and correct them, we get the following:
So:
Kadyrov got a message from somebody who is more experienced in seems to be political games than Kadyrov Kadyrov was told he might be kicked out unless he himself leaves He had to publicly announce it to prove he got the message Important point - Kadyrov seems to be sad, disappointed but not scared or under distress. That gives us additional food for thought
The other guy: himself is not a threat to Kadyrov and kadyrov can trust his word Kadyrov might not be just threatened but most likely was additionally bought (promised supposedly higher position but out of power)  Working theories:
Putin got pissed off with Kadyrov Somebody very close to Putin is making a soft coup Theory 1 Pro 
Most simple explanation Kadyrov trusts Putin Theory 1 Against 
I do not see anything Kadyrov did that could piss of Putin Does not fit Putin most likely course of action - Putin would make meeting with Kadyrov with cameras and directly offer Kadyrov what would look like better position. No fuss and everybody happy and quiet.  Putin needs Kadyrov now more than ever Adding the book to extremist material list does not fit the theory that Putin is in charge (why piss on all Sunni Muslims if you have issue with one) Theory 2 Pro
The book story fits here nicely Overall way it is done (secret meeting) and Kadyrov announcement of TG fits as well kadyrov most likely trusts Putin inner circle as well Putin strange public behavior (rubber butt) Overall hardening of RU position (for example decision to disconnect gas)  It is about time Theory 2 Against
It is a complicated explanation It is simply very difficalt to pull off unless Putin is, for example, mentally unhealthy My opinion - Theory 2
Let's think about the possibility that Putin is mentally unhealthy (for any number of reasons). For example, he is just talking head for TV now. That's why Kadyrov is not making a big fuss. He just did not see it (Putin mental problems and following soft coup) coming. That's why he says he (Kadyrov) is still so unexperienced - he was outmaneuvered and offered the way out.
Interestingly we saw reports Shoigu was sidelined (so he is out of hierarchy). And Shoigu was one of the heirs (according to Girkin). Now we see Kadyrov is on his way out of the game. Too many coincidences to believe in simple explanations.

Yes. Comment is coming.

About a week ago, there was video of Excalibur rounds hitting soft skin vehicles and a dugout.  Those are clearly airburst rounds... the signature explosion is unmistakable.
Edit:  I was an artillery officer for 17 years and a forward observer for most of that time.  Airburst rounds go off at a optimal 7 meters for variable time (VT) fuzes.  Depending with distance and angle of view, that is low enough that an airburst can be mistaken for a normal point detonation fuze burst.  So chances are good that airburst fuzes are being more commonly used...but we are not clearly seeing it in videos...because the 7 metre height and seeing if from a drone video (mainly overhead angle) from hundreds of metres distance makes the airburst look like a ground graze burst.

Ok...STOP.
  I am not a moderator on this forum but I have @BFCElvis on speed dial.  This thread is about the war Ukraine and, yes we have discussed surrounding issues and possible 2nd and 3rd order effects this war could have on the region.  This thread is not about:
- Bafflingly narrow or simply out of date concepts such as solving human cultural overlaps with policy.
- Vilifying the entirely of all Russian peoples as somehow less than human.  No human society, culture or whatever has or ever will be entirely homogeneous, good or bad.  So sweeping ideas of how to solve a "Russian Problem" by a bunch of old guys with too much time on their hands, which they should spend learning more, are not 1) viable or 2) useful here.
- I get we are sore on Russia right now, they earned that one; however, at what point on this incredibly myopic line of thinking do we become worse than that we assign to them?  All in the name of "safety" - a whole lot of atrocity and historic marks of shame lay on the feet of "safety".  I have been to one genocide and trust me none of you know what you are talking about, so stop hijacking the thread.
- FFS, we did not even take the approaches some are proposing here during the Cold War, we went with "contain and attract/entice", and we won that one.  In fact we look back on the occasion of the McCarthy era - which is where this is going- as a dark chapter 
You wanna talk about mass deportations, forced migration, race/ethnic cleansing/purity or any other whack-job nonsense there is literally an entire internet out there, let's try and keep this one small "sane space".    

Here's a link to the latest IAEA statement on the nuclear power plant situation. Concern. Good that all the safeguards data is being received, but that's not really the major concern. 
For review, when they discuss safeguards, they aren't talking about the safety of the plant. What they are talking about is monitoring facilities to ensure that nuclear material (for example, spent fuel) is not diverted for "other" uses. All nuclear plants have them. Saying that, new fuel is a poor material for say, a dirty bomb, and impossible for a nuclear weapon. Spent fuel is so highly radioactive that while it might make material for a dirty bomb, handling it to do so would be incredibly difficult and dangerous, requiring a lot of special equipment and shielding. And while there is Pu in spent fuel, the processes to extract it are only owned by a few countries. 
The bigger danger by far is significant damage to the plant, which could cause a radiation leak. Breaching both the containment and the reactor vessel is not too probable. More likely disabling safety systems that control spent fuel pool cooling (a la Fukushima), leading to the breakdown of the fuel and radiation release.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-91-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

Dave

So I totally get the impulse to unpack this attack, especially from a forum of - let's just say - "detail orientated" wargamers.  Kudos to those that continue to Zapruder this thing, and I am sure in time the details of how the UA pulled this off will come out (my bet is missile strike, but I would not rule out one helluva SOF black bag job - could be both in reality; complex attack).
But for all the lurkers out there I would recommend we all keep an eye on the follow-on impacts of this strike on a strategic and political level.  We bounced around this a few pages back but here are some thoughts:
- All war is communication and that is a complex concept of 'the message', 'the means to send the message', and 'the method of transmission'.  Every piece of those components in themselves create information that is interpreted in multiple dimensions.  For example Ukraine said things thru this attack that create certainty and uncertainty - in case the second one is the most powerful:
Ukraine stated, with certainty, that they can hit a high value target with extreme precision at 225km (at least) behind Russian lines.  I say 'extreme precision' because it appears they did more damage with the secondaries than the initial strikes, and that takes a very high level of precision in time and space.  This was not lobbing a missile at a target, they hit exactly where they needed to in order to create a very high profile "boom".  That is communicating 'capability' that I am pretty sure the Russians were sure they understood, right up until yesterday afternoon - based on the scrambling narratives in the Russian info sphere. Ukraine has clearly communicated intent.  If they wanted to hurt Russian airpower, they would have cratered the runway and then FASCAM'd the thing...but this was not about airpower.  They were signaling that they are coming for Crimea, and the Russians were not safe...anywhere.  This will likely create a lot of uncertainty in Russian thinking, as the pretty much figured they had Ukraine pinned down in the Donbas in a grinding war.  We talked about it before but this is strategic manoeuvre thru strike.  The kind of thing the US does by hitting Afghanistan from the other side of the world back on 2001 (https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2016/December 2016/1216hours.pdf).  This was a high profile attack that both demonstrated and signaled intent and resolve in a very visible manner - that is certainty creating uncertainty in their enemy. I don't care how constipated the Russian political machine is, and it is already trying to spin this in crazy directions to blunt the message - they get that much.  No way to dodge it, this is very bad news for the Russians.  They have been relying on the narrative of "hopeless cause": Russian has 'escalation dominance', it can create a never-ending 'stalemate', it can and will fight forever...there is no way Ukraine can win: so stop spending your money in a pre-recession...look we even have Steven Segal!  This is clearly playing on the western psyche and our recent scars from places like Afghanistan. Ukraine just demonstrated that they can still hit a strategic target, with breathtaking precision, at the time and place of their choosing.  That directly attacks the Russian narrative.   Militarily, this type of attack creates enormous uncertainty.  The fact we have people on vacation on a beach watching this happen, and then blow it up all over social media, is a clear indication that Russia considered this area outside the warzone.  You can ignore or sidestep "industrial accidents" and the rash of weird fires we saw back in Mar-Feb, you can ignore HIMARs that hit your logistical system within 70-100kms.  You cannot ignore a strategic strike, that just happened in front of the entire world, at over twice that range.  The Russian military now needs to not only figure out how to secure itself at ranges it thought safe, it has to figure out how to defend Russian certainty, which just got seriously mauled. So what?  Well the first reaction will be "it was a lucky one off", and "this is war, these things happen".  However, information is funny with humans, we cannot un-think it.  As a minimum, Russian has to re-think the battlespace, significantly.  That is a lot of assumptions that just cracked in military planning - the fact that they did not see it coming in time to interdict is the biggest one.  Russians may try to ignore it, but I am betting western ISR is picking up a lot of scrambling going on in the Russian rear areas right now.  Again, this is more friction being imposed via uncertainty.  And that uncertainty will spread like a virus.  All those beach goers will scramble back home with it.  The Russian reaction will be key to determining just how badly this strike hurt them. 
Now the war is not over.  This was not positively decisive, at least not yet.  The UA will have to follow up with more of these, humans are also able to ignore reality - which is paradoxical I know.  More of these strikes will build up pressure until something gives.  But for the west, this is a clear demonstration that our proxy is not only still in this thing, it demonstrates they are getting better at it.  Better they are emulating warfare we recognize - high precision deep strikes on clear military targets with almost zero collateral civilian casualties.  Nice, clean and very western - worth investing more into.
I have heard at some pretty high levels the idea that "Russia has shifted this war into one that favors them"...well strikes like these send the message that Ukraine is shifting it back.  May have been a 'one-off' or a lucky day; however, it is going to cause the Russians a lot of hot and bother to figure that all out...and in a war, that is good communication.