riptides

NS pipelines were sabotaged by Russia. They took a card out of the deck. Maintenance issues are the cover.
In reality it was a miscommunication at the latest coke party. Someone said "blow?", another said "a line?", then another said "two?".
The local naval commander then took action.
There were reports of US Naval anti-sub activity (sonar drops) in the area, like they were tracking or looking for  something. But, that's just RUMIT. I am sure by now if there was hard evidence, it would be out.
 
 

NS pipelines were sabotaged by Russia. They took a card out of the deck. Maintenance issues are the cover.
In reality it was a miscommunication at the latest coke party. Someone said "blow?", another said "a line?", then another said "two?".
The local naval commander then took action.
There were reports of US Naval anti-sub activity (sonar drops) in the area, like they were tracking or looking for  something. But, that's just RUMIT. I am sure by now if there was hard evidence, it would be out.
 
 

NS pipelines were sabotaged by Russia. They took a card out of the deck. Maintenance issues are the cover.
In reality it was a miscommunication at the latest coke party. Someone said "blow?", another said "a line?", then another said "two?".
The local naval commander then took action.
There were reports of US Naval anti-sub activity (sonar drops) in the area, like they were tracking or looking for  something. But, that's just RUMIT. I am sure by now if there was hard evidence, it would be out.
 
 

NS pipelines were sabotaged by Russia. They took a card out of the deck. Maintenance issues are the cover.
In reality it was a miscommunication at the latest coke party. Someone said "blow?", another said "a line?", then another said "two?".
The local naval commander then took action.
There were reports of US Naval anti-sub activity (sonar drops) in the area, like they were tracking or looking for  something. But, that's just RUMIT. I am sure by now if there was hard evidence, it would be out.
 
 

I find it incredible that people are so hard on Germany on the war thing. "Common, sell more Leopards Fritz, can't you see the opportunity !" It's like those people haven't studied WW2 all their lives and the scariest wound that war left to this country. A country that was painstakingly rebuilt brick by brick by the people left behind. And chose instead of planning to avenge the former rival to build a new relation that seemed like the logical bond. 

It explains the rankings of the Tour de France. A Russian on a bicycle would be hard to beat. 

All war is negotiation and sacrifice - all war is negotiation with sacrifice.
So Putin dropped the 'mobilization' boogey man, kinda.  And of course threatened nuclear war without saying it...oh my.
Well I think Phase 2-3 of this war were positioning for endgame - Russia's point "Imma gonna take the Donbas, cause that was what I wanted all along...well that plus Kherson and everything I did not lose in Phase I".  And Ukraine's counter-point "No you are not."  This could have gone on for some time longer but clearly things are coming to a head in Moscow.
So I think this is endgame.  What does a soft-mobilization/slightly-louder-threat-of-nuclear-war-based-on-bizarro -annexation-internal-legalities-that-no-one-else-is-going-to-recognize-for-a-century, really tell us?
- Well first it tells us that Russia is desperate. Putin and the gang are opening themselves up to significant political exposure here.  You average Russian may, or may not, have actually supported this war but they all had the luxury of staying out of it - changing that is a major shift.  We are already hearing rumblings in opposition, who knows how far that will go; however, we do know that Putin would not have pulled on this lever if Russia was winning.  This is a pretty clear sign of losses and the impact it is having on his war machine.
- Next, this is not an escalation, it is desperation.  This is an attempt to preserve military capability in the field and re-assert a status quo, not raise enough forces to re-take Kyiv.  In short, whatever the UA is doing, it is working very well.
- Russia is clearly on the defensive, and likely will stay there until this is over.  Throwing 300,000 conscripts in any variation is not going to create offensive military capability - unable to create positive decision, so at best negative and null (i.e. denial).  This signals a shift into a strategy of exhaustion, annihilation for the Russians has left the building.  This puts Russia a couple rungs above an insurgency as far as military strategy goes.  They are going to try and dig in an hold on to what they have until the other side gets tired.
-  We could be heading towards a nuclear decision point.  The battlefield use of nuclear weapons has always been a grey area in warfare.  It is an escalation but the West and USSR went around and around on whether one could have a limited nuclear war.  I suspect that Putin might be thinking about testing the norms around this by declaring all the territory they have taken as "mother Russia" - we freakin knew that Russian doctrine and law were useless to refer to because autocrats just move the goalposts.  So I suspect the redline is the Crimea, and maybe somewhere in the LNR/DPR.  If the UA push that far, we might actually see Putin try to go that way - I say "try" because he 1) might already be removed from power by then, or 2) someone will put a bullet in his dome before they drag Russia into a doomsday scenario.  If one does go off well it won't be the end of days, tactical nuclear weapons can effect a couple grid squares and were designed for heavy armor concentrations at Fulda - this war is far to spread out.  We will likely lose our minds in the West and the response will be key to what happens next. I suspect conventional escalation or other options to send a strong signal to Russia that they will be the first country in history to lose a strategic nuclear war.  Regardless, if Russia employs a nuclear weapon, we are off the map, beyond the Cuban Missile crisis; however, I also still think this actually happening is a long shot.  For those in Europe and NA, I would not start getting too excited until strange looking Patriot systems start being deployed around major urban areas and/or in the Canadian north.
  So the biggest question on the table is - "what does endgame look like?"  This is in the weird political space as militarily Ukraine has demonstrated that given time they can likely retake everything back to the pre-2014 border - the question is do they want to?  Do they need to?  Putting emotions to one side - I suspect the West will be putting a lot of incentives for Ukraine to push to 2014 borders and then stop.  Why?  Well some possible reasons:
- DNR and LNR are burned out wrecks with large sections of the population that clearly do not want to be Ukrainian, so let em go.  Ukraine gains nothing but a couple Northern Ireland scenarios if they re-occupy, that and a massive reconstruction bill.  Walk away and wish them luck with their sugar daddy.
- Crimea.  Here we could see "neutral and open" tossed around a lot more.  Without Sevastopol Russia is pretty much cut out of the Black Sea, and if they are out of the Black Sea they are out of the Med.  If Russia is going to go nuclear, it will be over Crimea...and to this guy over in NA, it is not worth it.
- Ok, so that is the unthinkable "bad", what is the carrot?  Fast tracked entry in NATO - this entire bullsh#t goes away if Ukraine has Article 5 to lean on, because that is simply too big to fail for the West.  Hell Ukraine is already armed better than most NATO nations, with NATO STANAG equipment.  Their training is US/UK standard and I have no doubt we have already built most of their ISR infrastructure.  Ukraine in NATO next week is a clear win for the west. 
Next, entry into the EU.  Bureaucratic nightmare that it is, this would cement Ukraine into Europe economically and set them up for post-war success.
Last, a reconstruction plan to rival Marshal.  The West commits hundreds of billions to turn Ukraine into a shining example of what our money can do as a counter-point to China's game these last 15 years or so.
As to Russia?  Well it made its bed. Sanctions stay in place until 1) reparation deal is cut and in motion, 2) war crimes of all sorts are investigated and prosecuted and 3) Putin regime is gone enough that we can pretend whoever replaces it is clean...or clean enough. If Russia refuses any of the above, well enjoy being a Chinese satellite with a Cold War Soviet standard of living and we will see you again in 30 years - we will risk manage Russia, we are good at that in the West.
So What War?  Well UA will likely focus on taking bights out of Donbas just to ensure 300,000 Russian conscripts don't feel left out.  They will re-take Kherson and push south over the Dnipro up to the Crimean border.  And Melitopol, cut that stupid land bridge and box the Russians and their cronies back to where they were before this nonsense started.
Anyway, crazy days and keep your head up because it might get crazier.
 

Max Skinner: What is it, Major Lawrence, that attracts you, personally, to the desert?
... Its clean. I like it because its clean

Max Skinner: What is it, Major Lawrence, that attracts you, personally, to the desert?
... Its clean. I like it because its clean

Seems like their definition of treasure was washing machines and toilets.
That tells the world something if only some bright individuals could take advantage of that.
 

Another reason to welcome the Finns to NATO.
 

I predict that Russia will fall apart before the year ends. There I said it. Wishful thinking, but someone has to take the early spot.

My wife edited this

At the end, the military salute, the guy with his hand over his heart. Says it all.
 

6 people armed with anti-tank, anti-aircraft weapons, moving around on speedy vehicles with SatComs's and huge steel balls.
Followed by the force of a nation the likes have not been seen in close to 100 years.

There seems to be a recurring pattern of people who live safely thousands of kilometers away from Russia telling people who live right next to it how they should feel and what they should do about Russians. People who have no personal experience and aren't (and never will be threatened) in any way chastising people who had to live with Russian terror for generations.
Their "just give Russians another chance" is other people's "our children born this year will face next war Russia starts as teenagers and adults". Sacrificing yourself for your humanist values is fine, but asking other people to sacrifice themselves (and their safety, their lives, their children's lives) for your values, while cushily living far away is very much not fine. It is easy to be a saint in Paradise, but don't put the same standard on those living in Hell.
And moreover, where were all these defenders of human rights when Bucha happened? Where will they be once we see more crimes against humanity in liberated territories? Why is it they always care more about protecting the bullies from vengeance than protecting the bullied from the bullies?
Because it almost feels like I'm hearing some people of the West (not necessarily in this thread, that's why am not quoting anyone) say "let's give Russians few more second changes and it's fine if they murder and rape and torture few hundred thousand Eastern Europeans while getting it right" and it is completely rotten attitude, opposite of being humane as it claims.

If you see a white crossed vehicle, it's an Ukrainian one. 🇺🇦💪

If you see a white Z vehicle, it's a fleeing russian one. 🏳️🌳💥

And if you don't see anything... It's the 3AK counter-attack ! 😁🤦‍♂️😂

A few trenchant points from Galeev's early briefing threads. (His feed is a bit of a bag of cats these days)
....
 
 
 
 

I think tac-nukes are off the table. The situation is so fluid there is no "mass" that will allow anyone to gain anything from their use. The cities are still under Russian "control", and I am sure those Russian units in the field are really hard pressed to actually report their positions at the moment, let alone where they will be in 8-24 hours.
 
 

Pontoon guy....

 
 

Getting back to this....was this guy ever verified? The big deal is of course, you have him, you have his staff, plans, etc. etc.
 

Pontoon guy....

 
 

Pontoon guy....