LongLeftFlank

Steve got baited into it this time.  I am waiting for him to yell at everyone first. I don't think they can legally lock up this thread; it has a BFC board seat now.

Moscow death count 133.
...So ISIS has basically killed the personnel of a VDV rifle company (in the theoretical event of a full mobilisation). Largely military aged males, and likely above the mean for education and patriotic fervour.

Moscow death count 133.
...So ISIS has basically killed the personnel of a VDV rifle company (in the theoretical event of a full mobilisation). Largely military aged males, and likely above the mean for education and patriotic fervour.

Damned if ya do and....
U.S. Secretly Alerted Iran Ahead of Islamic State Terrorist Attack (WSJ Jan 2024)

Stealing that!

OK, different Cockburn, but same ideology lol. Pretty sure Andrew's a tankie too....
In uni, we used to call these guys the 'Sandalistas'

OK, different Cockburn, but same ideology lol. Pretty sure Andrew's a tankie too....
In uni, we used to call these guys the 'Sandalistas'

OK, different Cockburn, but same ideology lol. Pretty sure Andrew's a tankie too....
In uni, we used to call these guys the 'Sandalistas'

Pavlo Narozhnyi , the founder of "Reaktivna Poshta" and a military expert, gave an interview to the French publication Le Grand Continent.
 

Orlivka reportedly has been taken by ru forces

Really good ISW today, but the most interesting part is quoted above. It quotes several sources about Russian recruiting issues, and highlights several issues that might occur if Russia conducts another mobilization.

This news, though it was again from "anonymous source" summoned a huge wave of hate in Ukraine. Especially on background of today's heavy strike. 
Despite President's Office rejected US warned Ukraine to stop strikes we can see there are no strikes in about a week on Russian refineries. Also journalists of "Voice of America" Ukrainian branch officially asked White House to comment the article in FT. The answer was very blurred and contained the phrase "we don't encourage attacks inside the Russia" (well, I imagine 1941 and White House, which don't encourage Britain strikes inside Germany). 
I think, after today's disaster, we have to blow Russian refieries and energy infrastructure with double force. It's more and more opinions here that US doesn't want a victory of Ukraine. These limited weapon supply after the peak in December 2022 is just for "not allow Ukriane to lose", but not to "Ukrainian victory". Last speech of Sullivan, where he pointed out "victory conditions" for Ukraine - "if Ukriane keeps ittelsf as democracy state bla-bla-bla"... but without pointing out in what borders. 
What we can expect from the country which even can't do nothinbg with Huthi attacks and asking China to influence on them (!!!)

 
 

Not that it would be famous for its organizational culture and speed of reactions, so all arguments for supposed false flag pointing to the fact services were passive does not sound legit. It's the same bardak like in the army, possibly even worse.

Adam Tooze devotes most of his latest Chartbook piece to Kamil Galeev's work on detailing Russian dependence on Western (EU) machine tooling. Great signal boost for Kamil!
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-270-how-russia-makes-missiles

OT, but I know one of the DPs from the new version. It's done a really good job. He spoke very highly of the creative process. 
 

Well thinking generically in CM terms, the Ukes were hiding their strongpoints in the shattered ruins of whatever settlement (dachas, factories, etc.); that's been a classic underdog move for centuries (La Haye Sainte? Camarrone?). So the Russians had to level those with saturation bombardments using the heavy stuff.  Much the same in Bahmut.
But those positions could also be (slowly and bloodily) outflanked, and their LOCs choked off, via the surrounding countryside, where only treelines and the occasional balka provide any kind of concealment and holes in the ground are the defensive cover, with whatever roofing is available.

Be honest, who is going to play CM: WDD Where Drones Dare in 2035. It will make Star Wars look dated. Just let the Boomer inside you speak freely, music was better back then, vinyl was better, air and sea were cleaner, warfare was forgiving.
I tihink I'm going to launch CM FB . I'm enjoying the last good things of my era.

UKR soldier in anti-thermal sight poncho. By feedback from soldiers it really masks from thermal sights unveling and they several times could approach to enemy positions in the night unspotted until the last moment. Main issues - the fabric is too rustles during crawling and it damn hot in this poncho. 

Ok so if we are trying to build bunkers under active fire from the enemy that does change the equation somewhat. But how bad is it? If you can't even bring in an excavator then it really limits your options and while throwing money at engineering problems often solves them (Kevlar sandbags?) I am not sure Ukraine has that kind of budget! 
If I was in that situation I would be looking to pack something like this, or this on my truck and use it to support a lot of soil as overhead cover in a hand-dug trench. But it won't be nearly as strong as a concrete bunker since a near miss will collapse the walls more easily and a direct hit is game over even for a smaller round. 

The Golden BB, man!

Considering that the UA is taking 100k FPVs per month I am not sure the traditional suppression of fortified positions paradigm holds up.  The UA have already demonstrated that through the use of PGM they can employ far less gun rounds to shoot up trenches.  Extending that to FPVs, essentially precision flying mortar rounds, I can see no reason why these could not be employed in an offensive manner.
Further, we are not looking at a stovepiped system here.  FPVs are going to be employed in cooperation with artillery.  Each a sub-system in an overall Firepower capability.  FPVs have advantages that artillery does not and vice versa.  What FPVs do is take the load off of artillery.  We do not need massed guns in order to successfully conduct offensives.  We are able to achieve the same effects via other means, or combinations of means.
Upscaling FPV employment has just as much offensive potential as it does defensively.  What is missing is an ability to exploit and break out past an enemy defensive system…because they are using UAS as well.  What we really need is local UAS superiority as a concept.

The links are broken for me but I am very skeptical about building  bunkers with 3d printing - and I say this as someone who designs structures, sometimes against explosions. If plastics are involved multiply that by 10. 

Sorry, as I said the energy/metals thing is marginally OT (though probably better than US politix right now), but check these out as a case in point for how deep a hole the West needs to dig itself out of in terms of manufacturing capacity. The headlines speak for themselves:
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/chinas-making-more-cheap-wind-and-solar-kit-than-the-world-knows-what-to-do-with-the-timing-couldnt-be-worse/2-1-1609984
“Cyclical overcapacity is a feature across the Chinese economy, from steel to lower-end semiconductors,” said clean energy research specialist BNEF in a new report. “But today’s surplus of clean-tech manufacturing is unprecedented.”
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/dont-get-hooked-on-chinese-batteries-after-quitting-russian-gas-europe-warned/2-1-1519960
https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/unfair-and-a-security-threat-dont-be-tempted-by-half-price-chinese-wind-turbines-warns-european-industry-chief/2-1-1518733
(And keep in mind ALL the leading turbine manufacturers in the world except GE were European, up to about 3 years ago. They are all now going bankrupt/exiting and/or having quality problems as they had to cut so many corners to compete on price with Envision, Minyang, etc.)
****
...So when we talk here about 'flooding the zone' with a bazillion cut-price drones, or antidrone-drones, or anti-antidrones, just *who* is in the position to walk that talk at this moment?
Very important to be realistic about this. Because whatever Ukraine and its allies innovate on the battlefield is being studied and copied, in real time.
Now whether Russia can effectively employ a bazillion cut rate drones or wevs, we can discuss. But I wouldn't answer that one with a hard No either....
 

Sorry, as I said the energy/metals thing is marginally OT (though probably better than US politix right now), but check these out as a case in point for how deep a hole the West needs to dig itself out of in terms of manufacturing capacity. The headlines speak for themselves:
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/chinas-making-more-cheap-wind-and-solar-kit-than-the-world-knows-what-to-do-with-the-timing-couldnt-be-worse/2-1-1609984
“Cyclical overcapacity is a feature across the Chinese economy, from steel to lower-end semiconductors,” said clean energy research specialist BNEF in a new report. “But today’s surplus of clean-tech manufacturing is unprecedented.”
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/dont-get-hooked-on-chinese-batteries-after-quitting-russian-gas-europe-warned/2-1-1519960
https://www.rechargenews.com/wind/unfair-and-a-security-threat-dont-be-tempted-by-half-price-chinese-wind-turbines-warns-european-industry-chief/2-1-1518733
(And keep in mind ALL the leading turbine manufacturers in the world except GE were European, up to about 3 years ago. They are all now going bankrupt/exiting and/or having quality problems as they had to cut so many corners to compete on price with Envision, Minyang, etc.)
****
...So when we talk here about 'flooding the zone' with a bazillion cut-price drones, or antidrone-drones, or anti-antidrones, just *who* is in the position to walk that talk at this moment?
Very important to be realistic about this. Because whatever Ukraine and its allies innovate on the battlefield is being studied and copied, in real time.
Now whether Russia can effectively employ a bazillion cut rate drones or wevs, we can discuss. But I wouldn't answer that one with a hard No either....
 

Except that Russia's (rather, Siberia's) share of global metals needed to achieve the carbon transition is roughly comparable to its share of hydrocarbons.


...Unless you believe in stuff like deep sea mining, or take a giant hit off the Green Hydrogen bong.
But we're at risk for drifting OT. None of this is going to show up in time to change the outcome of the current war.
My other comment is that oil and LNG are both likely to be comparatively cheap for the next few years [I'm in the business, so I should know better than to say things like that, of course lol].
For example, Japan and Korea, traditional 'price takers' are both now looking to resell huge amounts of surplus LNG they contracted for, likely into Southeast Asia, if necessary subsidising the new power plants that will burn it.
None of this is great news for the planet, but not great for Putin either, plus the Chinese have got him by his undersized ntz at this point.
P.S. If you haven't read Daniel Yergin's 'The Prize', it is well worth it.