LongLeftFlank

Yes, the smell of hair on fire is getting a little thick in here, innit?
I mean, if the thread regulars want to agonise over the fall of the Republic in the context of Ukraine, maybe look at something more directly relevant than microplaning DJT's latest excretion?
https://www.construction-physics.com/p/what-happened-to-the-us-machine-tool

IMO most important parts:
"This has led to significant increases in production output. For example, Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types. Russian missile production has similarly increased. At the beginning of 2023, for instance, Russian production of Iskandr 9M723 ballistic missiles was six per month, with available missile stocks of 50 munitions."
"Of the tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, for example, approximately 80% are not new production but are instead refurbished and modernised from Russian war stocks. The number of systems held in storage means that while Russia can maintain a consistent output through 2024, it will begin to find that vehicles require deeper refurbishment through 2025, and by 2026 it will have exhausted most of the available stocks."
"Perhaps the most serious limitation for Russia, however, is ammunition manufacture. In order to achieve its aspiration to make significant territorial gains in 2025, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has assessed an industrial requirement to manufacture or source approximately 4 million 152mm and 1.6 million 122mm artillery shells in 2024. Russian industry has reported to the MoD that it expects to increase 152mm production from around 1 million rounds in 2023 to 1.3 million rounds over the course of 2024, and to only produce 800,000 122mm rounds over the same period. Moreover, the Russian MoD does not believe it can significantly raise production in subsequent years,"
"This means that to properly resource the armed forces, Russia must – in the short term – further draw down its remaining 3 million rounds of stored ammunition, though much of this is in poor condition. To further compensate for shortages, Russia has signed supply and production contracts with Belarus, Iran, North Korea and Syria, with the latter only able to provide forged shell casings rather than complete shells. Although the injection of around 2 million 122mm rounds from North Korea will help Russia in 2024, it will not compensate for a significant shortfall in available 152mm"
"The Russian theory of victory is plausible if Ukraine's international partners fail to properly resource the AFU. However, if Ukraine's partners continue to provide sufficient ammunition and training support to the AFU to enable the blunting of Russian attacks in 2024, then Russia is unlikely to achieve significant gains in 2025. If Russia lacks the prospect of gains in 2025, given its inability to improve force quality for offensive operations, then it follows that it will struggle to force Kyiv to capitulate by 2026. Beyond 2026, attrition of systems will begin to materially degrade Russian combat power, while Russian industry could be disrupted sufficiently by that point, making Russia's prospects decline over time."

An' I said, “Litterin'.”
An' they all moved away from me on the bench there, an' the hairy eyeball an' all kinds of mean nasty things.
...Til I said, “*And* creating a nuisance.”
An' they all came back, shook my hand, an' we had a great time on the bench, talkin' about crime, mother stabbin', father rapin', all kinds of groovy things that we was talking about on the bench, an' everything was fine.

So this thread is now called, "How Hot is The American General Election Gonna Get?"... 
Just so I'm clear. For myself. 
 

An' I said, “Litterin'.”
An' they all moved away from me on the bench there, an' the hairy eyeball an' all kinds of mean nasty things.
...Til I said, “*And* creating a nuisance.”
An' they all came back, shook my hand, an' we had a great time on the bench, talkin' about crime, mother stabbin', father rapin', all kinds of groovy things that we was talking about on the bench, an' everything was fine.

Dude, ok it is getting weird now.  This is like being on a bus and the guy next to you asks “Do you know about Jesus?”  I am not asking what Trump says he will do?  I am not asking what he wants to do?  I am asking that all things being equal and he winds up in some sort of inverse version of where Biden is right now…what can Trump actually do?
Given his absurd declarations last time compared to what actually got done, we have precedent here.  I think I can safely say that your position is pretty clear and duly noted.  Now I am going to go find another place to sit - and maybe find someone a bit more pragmatic about the whole thing.

Sigh.

 

Sigh.

 

Well first off you may be surprised to learn that we hear all sorts of opinions on the trajectory of the Defender of the Free World - your personal spin is but one of them.  I am still not sure what has changed here.  We already had a Trump admin and what I saw was a lot of his worst impulses blocked, delayed and generally smothered by legal action and good old bureaucratic friction.  Trump still has to deal with the state level governments etc as well.  So in his first incredibly chaotic admin we saw a whole lot of noise and light but little actual substance - kind of the brand.  Jan 6th and COVID were about as close to the cliff face as we saw and then the machine defended itself.
So ok we got your spin on all this - Trump = bad idea.  But what has fundamentally changed in 4 short years that would give Trump supreme dictator powers that he lacked last time?  His own party is just as weak at holding him in check as last time.  Security and armed forces are not entirely onboard.  So what is the big shift that would allow these nightmare scenarios to unfold?
I mean as an outsider “hey look the sky is falling, again…”. I am still not seeing how Trumps political opponents could not conspire to check and pushback any less than his supporters have during the last few years.  We already lived through one Trump-pocolypse.  Finally despite a lot of predictions Ukrainian aid continued to flow - held up in the gears now but also looks like it might get through eventually.  NATO held together and the US appears to agree on China as the threat.  So now Trump gets in and all that goes away?
So it is not “listening to what I want to hear”. It is listening to a lot of voices saying something other than you.  You know, like good balanced critical thinking should be doing?  I do get that it could be bad, very bad.  But you are basically taking about an inevitable slide into another US Civil War and I have to believe that there are some off-ramps and relief valves here.

True, ditching NATO is way above Trump level of competence, and reshaping it somehow for Pacific interests is impossible. But this time it can indeed be different. Note absence of any kingmakers in his entourage...guys like Bannon or Pompeo were hardly likeable, but they were not dumb and were thinking in terms of raison d'etre, in their own ways. This time it seems he will build on his nucleus family as chief advisors.
Something like 2 months ago I happened to watch one political show in Russian TV dedicated solely to Trump's family. On surface they were just telling the story of filthy rich oligarchs familiar to their audience (like Moscow ones, with appropriate scandalous stories about gold and luxury- read: "he is similar to ours"), but the level of attention directed to Donald Jr. was quite outstanding- and this was pure political stuff about his future career, clearly something that makers of this piece were puting hopes for. They treated him as sovereign, concious politician on his own rather than son of his father, and this sentiment (or rather: assessment) seem to be shared by people close to Kremlin.
I think Russians know perfectly well where political nerves of future power may be. Trump did burned his fingers on various politcal advisors and occassionally even played Caesar betrayed by people he trusted, so he will now likely be more distrustful to guys from "outer ring", further loosening influence of system on his decisions. This can make a noticable difference for this term compared to previous one, especially in foreign policy.

Russian TG rejected yesterday claims of other Russian TGs about capturing of transport depo in northern part of Avdiivka and approaching to railway station. Westren OSINTers give next sitaution for yesterday
General Tarnasvskiy claimed about reserve units invilved in the battle. Unknown is this 3rd assault brigade or not.  Commander of 47th mech.brigade Dmytro Riumshyn told Russians now assault with small groups, sometimes applying armored vehicles. 

You know we North Americans are often told that "we don't get Russia", or most of Europe for that matter.  What is clear from this fiasco is that cluelessness cuts both ways.  So the best PR guys Putin had all settled on the idea that the best way to shift US public sentiment was a detailed history lesson on Eastern (fine, Central) Europe?  Oh ya, all of our modern culture speaks to our deep reverence for European history minutia, claims and counter claims.
Here is what the US (and Canada to a large extent) really think. 
"We won and some Europeans tagged along - Tom Hanks really won WW2.  We have English/French/Some 'Old Country' grandparents, so there is that.  The world is - 'Us, Them and The Rest.'  We really do not care about King Uteslav or whatever, unless someone makes a cool movie about it.  Why are White people killing each other in Ukraine?  We are used to Brown people killing each other, or us killing brown people...but this is weird.  We are spending how much on all this?!  Have you seen how much bananas cost these days?!  It is sad when kids die...now I feel bad.  They are still shooting each other...now I am getting bored.  Oh dear election time again and my XYZ is now the most important thing in the entire history of our species - if that guy is for/against it, he is worse than Hitler (who we all know was really bad...see Tom Hanks)."
I am not sure what Putin's best play here was, but it sure as hell wasn't what happened.  As to Carlson...welcome to your legacy...
 

In 2008, the doors of NATO were opened for Ukraine. In 2014, there was a coup. They started persecuting those who did not accept the coup, and it was indeed a coup. They created a threat to Crimea, which we had to take under our protection. They launched a war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started. There's a video of aircraft attacking Donetsk from above. They launched a large-scale military operation, then another one. When they failed, they started to prepare the next one. All this against the background of military development of this territory and opening of NATO's.  -- V.V. Putin
*****
It was Gimli the dwarf who broke in suddenly. 'The words of this wizard stand on their heads,' he growled, gripping the handle of his axe. 'In the language of Orthanc help means ruin and saving means slaying, that is plain. But we do not come here to beg.'

I did some quick research on Google, and found out Boris Johnson is way ahead of us.😄

Maybe BoJo should /sarc embrace the whole Global Criminal Mastermind shtick to fuel his political comeback.  Comedians seem to be playing well in politix these days, after all 🤡
One day leading black hooded SAS speedboat commandos to hit the nuke plant, the next 'sploding the Nordstream pipeline from the deck of his luxury yacht.
...Maybe post some TikToks while stroking a Persian cat.

In 2008, the doors of NATO were opened for Ukraine. In 2014, there was a coup. They started persecuting those who did not accept the coup, and it was indeed a coup. They created a threat to Crimea, which we had to take under our protection. They launched a war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started. There's a video of aircraft attacking Donetsk from above. They launched a large-scale military operation, then another one. When they failed, they started to prepare the next one. All this against the background of military development of this territory and opening of NATO's.  -- V.V. Putin
*****
It was Gimli the dwarf who broke in suddenly. 'The words of this wizard stand on their heads,' he growled, gripping the handle of his axe. 'In the language of Orthanc help means ruin and saving means slaying, that is plain. But we do not come here to beg.'

The_Capt's line about the collision of certainties comes to mind. Just because it is total bleep doesn't mean they don't believe it. It is probably worth mentioning that the textbooks say that because some pet pseudo historian that Putin likes wrote them. It would fascinating to compare what they say now to what they said in 1985.

https://n.opnxng.com/kamilkazani/status/1756091654262477152#m

In 2008, the doors of NATO were opened for Ukraine. In 2014, there was a coup. They started persecuting those who did not accept the coup, and it was indeed a coup. They created a threat to Crimea, which we had to take under our protection. They launched a war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started. There's a video of aircraft attacking Donetsk from above. They launched a large-scale military operation, then another one. When they failed, they started to prepare the next one. All this against the background of military development of this territory and opening of NATO's.  -- V.V. Putin
*****
It was Gimli the dwarf who broke in suddenly. 'The words of this wizard stand on their heads,' he growled, gripping the handle of his axe. 'In the language of Orthanc help means ruin and saving means slaying, that is plain. But we do not come here to beg.'

In 2008, the doors of NATO were opened for Ukraine. In 2014, there was a coup. They started persecuting those who did not accept the coup, and it was indeed a coup. They created a threat to Crimea, which we had to take under our protection. They launched a war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started. There's a video of aircraft attacking Donetsk from above. They launched a large-scale military operation, then another one. When they failed, they started to prepare the next one. All this against the background of military development of this territory and opening of NATO's.  -- V.V. Putin
*****
It was Gimli the dwarf who broke in suddenly. 'The words of this wizard stand on their heads,' he growled, gripping the handle of his axe. 'In the language of Orthanc help means ruin and saving means slaying, that is plain. But we do not come here to beg.'

In 2008, the doors of NATO were opened for Ukraine. In 2014, there was a coup. They started persecuting those who did not accept the coup, and it was indeed a coup. They created a threat to Crimea, which we had to take under our protection. They launched a war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started. There's a video of aircraft attacking Donetsk from above. They launched a large-scale military operation, then another one. When they failed, they started to prepare the next one. All this against the background of military development of this territory and opening of NATO's.  -- V.V. Putin
*****
It was Gimli the dwarf who broke in suddenly. 'The words of this wizard stand on their heads,' he growled, gripping the handle of his axe. 'In the language of Orthanc help means ruin and saving means slaying, that is plain. But we do not come here to beg.'

In 2008, the doors of NATO were opened for Ukraine. In 2014, there was a coup. They started persecuting those who did not accept the coup, and it was indeed a coup. They created a threat to Crimea, which we had to take under our protection. They launched a war in Donbas in 2014 with the use of aircraft and artillery against civilians. This is when it all started. There's a video of aircraft attacking Donetsk from above. They launched a large-scale military operation, then another one. When they failed, they started to prepare the next one. All this against the background of military development of this territory and opening of NATO's.  -- V.V. Putin
*****
It was Gimli the dwarf who broke in suddenly. 'The words of this wizard stand on their heads,' he growled, gripping the handle of his axe. 'In the language of Orthanc help means ruin and saving means slaying, that is plain. But we do not come here to beg.'

I'm trying to avoid talking about "that guy", but some of these twitter memes related to the interview are hilarious.
For the record I did not watch it, I don't want to spoil the Super Bowl weekend with that trash.
 

To be fair, I do not know how much of this defense was up to him and how much it came politically "hold at all costs". Same with the counteroffensive which I think after week 2 should/would have been called off but I am 100% certain this was politically not seen as an option.
As for Bakhmut there are many reasons why street fighting evened the playing field between wagner convict mobs and defenders. Personally I have never seen so many dead defenders in russian channels than during the city fighting, especially including Soledar and afterwards, even if I 'account' for this being the biggest battle of the war, towards the end I would say it was 1:1 dead for both sides (not overall)
Trying to supply this nightmare over a road that several times fell into enemy hands and caused dozens of vehicles to be picked off didnt help. Maybe associating him with this is wrong, as it may have been a political decision to hold but I dont see how this grinder and his repuation in any way makes him a better candidate to solve the issues under shell shortage, russian ewar, fortifications/minefields, endless russian assaults and lack of vehicles/...
We will see.

Is that in fact what happened? (Tatarigami seems to agree with you, btw, but he wasn't there either. And his primary gripe AIUI seems to be that Bakhmut should have been ceded about a month earlier once it encountered diminishing returns).
...or were there now and then some positions that simply had to be retaken? and the guys who got shot up doing that are unhappy.

 
Hurtgenwald has been mentioned before, but the sad travails of the 'Bloody Bucket' don't extrapolate to the 'average' GI experience in NWE.