Gpig

Doesn't get more hardcore than that...

I guess my problem with the whole “combined arms is their problem” narrative is that it misses the overall trend lines.  The RA was noted at the beginning of this war as failing to properly conduct combined arms.  This was a little odd as the Soviets essentially invented combined arms at scale and the RA was constructed around combined arms doctrine and concepts.  But we all agreed that “Russia Sux, LOLZ” and watched war porn streams with glee while yammering for “more Leopards!!”.
Now the UA on the offensive is also “failing to coordinate combined arms at scale” after extensive equipping and training by western forces.  So to my mind either two completely separate militaries coming at the problem have both mystically failed to grasp and execute the essentials of combined arms. Or there is something fundamentally changing about the concept of combined arms itself.
As to armchair quarter backing the UA in mid operations, well sure anyone with a podcast and a half decent academic background can nitpick.  It is called friction and it has always been in every war, forever.  Why?  Because human systems are filled with nasty human agency and perception, and error.  To point to a slow operational offensive “because units missed timelines” is weak and amateur analysis.  The biggest problem with trying to get professional assessments is that those able to do them are in the game and not going to speak publicly about what is actually going on.  What that means is that the calculus of this war remains opaque until the thing is over for a few years and we can get access to what actually happened - “How Did This Thing Get Hot?” thread coming hopefully soon.
The rest is academics and pundits trying to promote a bunch of angles.  We heard the same stuff at Bakhmut, Kherson and in the early days.  The fundamental questions are more along the lines of “can the UA translate corrode to breakout without air power as we knew it?”  “Has Defensive Primacy actually happened (again)?” “What the hell is happening with mass?” 
This is not pro-Ukrainian copium either.  The reality may be simply that offensive operations in this war do not work anymore.  We could be looking at the beginning of a frozen conflict line a la Korea.  But why offensive operations may not work is not because a UA unit had their map upside down anymore than when the RA stopped using their tanks as tanks and made VBIEDs out of them.
That all said, my own assessment is that this still feels like shaping.  I nice little feel up before heading to paradise.  It lasted for at least two months at Kherson.  I suspect we have the rest of the summer with this weird Grade 9 gym dancing until something gives and the UA drops the hammer and goes for it.  In fact we have not seen a full scale formation offensive yet - as has been noted - the reason is more likely because conditions have not been set.  Now another big question is “are the UA shaping or leg humping?”  Well given the C4ISR differences between the two forces my money is still on operational shaping, but we will have to wait and see.

So hopefully both Girkin and Navalny will have another live debate quite soon. Now about who sleeps near the toilet.

Not bad, not bad at all.
 
 

LOL!
 
 

6 hours ago (from my posting) BBC News gave Twitter a swift kick in the pants re the Ukraine war.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66113460

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

Speaking of shocking. FFS that's some scary ****. 

Very close quarters
 
 

I'm really surprised...Said no one! 😁
But seriously, really happy to hear this. 🇵🇱

I can picture the excellent marketing bullet points given to potential investors.  "Invest in Russia!  Why invest here?  Because we're like N Korea but with lots of oil!  How can you resist?  Also, we have no real rule of law!  And we might kidnap you if you visit or just kill you where you live.  And your family!  Or maybe just blackmail you based on what you did here during your visit.  Or we blackmail you on something we just made up.  That's why you should invest here!"

Saving private Fox
 

You mean having no air force? Maybe the standards we see in within UA have a lot to do with the lack of standards their enemy has. And that is not to disrespect the small units fighting on the ground for the UA. We are all impressed beyond belief. However, the amount of firepower NATO could bring to bear in a professional manner is orders of magnitude greater than what the UA can provide even with NATO assistance. You can tell, I am Ped off and frustrated. Not at you dan. Playing armchair general is fun in peace time when everything is hypothetical. Every time a post to this forum is made a UA troop is dying within the same timeframe. Maybe not exactly, but you get my point. 

MEPs look ahead to next EU summit (europa.eu)

Precision.  Examples of counter battery work.
 

Ok, well I get the no echo chamber part but I also should be able to make professionally based observations without being accused of being a blind apologist hooked on “copium”.  And then when challenged by very weak counters and counter-challenge, I should not be accused of being a “commissar”.  You are of course free to have an uniformed opinion but I am not evil because I point it out.
This entire thing is an observation that on a UA mine breaching disaster - no debate on that, and trust me I have forgotten more about mechanized minefield breaching than just about everyone else you may meet - that RA artillery was tepid to the point of being odd for the context.  That suddenly turned into a crisis point of blind pro-Ukraine echo chamber building because in your opinion this observation was unmerited.  You did not back that up by any hard facts and have even admitted it is too early to tell.  Then when the freakin RA commander says through Russian MOD controlled media that his own artillery was very effective, your response is to crow on how that validates your own position.  When pressed your response was “why would Russia lie about such a thing?” To which I provided 4 different reasons…and now I am an echo chamber commissar.
FFS, you brought the weak arguments to the table and now we are to be punished for pointing that out…how is that not creating another echo chamber of its own?
We have been hearing reports of problems with RA indirect fire for months, this could simply be another data point - not a verdict on the entire Russian defence.  We will see in due time whether or not corrosive warfare will or will not work again.  Not every counter-RA observation is pro-Ukrainian or vice versa.  However, if you are going to start beaking off the least you can do is bring some actual facts or coherent observations to the party.  Unlike whatever social media, school or your friends/family or whatever told you, your opinion is not worth its weight in gold.  We do not respect it simply because you posted it.  It need facts, experience or something to support it.

General Staff claimed Ka-52 was shot down on Zaporizhzhia front.

😭
 
 

I'm here to ask you guys some for some informed help.
There have been Ukrainians training in my country for a while now, and this last cycle that just graduated, they have selected 3 dozen or so candidates to go through another X amount of extended training and turn them into NCO's/Officers.
My unit is going to be in charge of that training.
I was talking with the base psychologist, who is going to be in charge of their "psychological" training. She will be giving them half a dozen of weekly addresses, but she has been given no advice or direction on what to teach them. She has some idea of where to start (stress handling, leadership skills...etc) but apart from that, taking into account these guys are headed for an actual shooting war obviously she wants to make an actual contribution and not give them hollow TedTalks.
As people with more expertise than me, I refer to you all the question:
What sort of psychological training would you recommend she prepare given the circumstances? What topics should she cover or what sort of techniques could she teach?
Thank you in advance.
 
PS I apologize if this isn't the correct place for the post but it's the place with the most traffic at the moment and the training isn't far off, so we would appreciate the help. Again, thank you in advance.

Again?!  I mean how did Operation Canuck Freedom go last time?  https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/war-of-1812
 
Of course the old adage “History is written by the losers who only remember New Orleans, and left unchallenged by the winners who are too polite to bring it up and still feel bad about burning the White House” applies here.

I have the book, War Plan Red. Just waiting for the Canadians to make their way into CMCW for some sweet alternative reality battles. I used to live right beside a ferry crossing and bridge whose seizure were a part of the American plan. I am sure my old hunting blind along the river dike would be a perfect spot to setup an ATGM. 

Prigozhyn in own confrontation with MoD couldn't bypass this and humilitated MoD again, showing in mockery way that helicopters (here he calls him ATGMers) hit harvesters, but MoD passed them as tanks
 

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.
I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic.
Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely:
https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 
Here is the summary:
General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders  Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir. Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany) new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk  Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model") NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany  the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD  German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe  "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise.  Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge.