Holien

FSB detained 65-year aviation technecian of Chkalovskiy airfield, who could carry HE inside airfield and put it in several aircraft. As result on 20th of September IL-18D, An-148 and Mi-28N were damaged. Chkalovskiy is airfield near Moscow, were special purpose transport aviation deployed ("salons" for militray top-brass). At the interrogfation FSB forced him to recognize he was enlisted by Ukrainian special services for diversion. But this man insisted he did this on his own mind, because he was strictly against the war. As result FSB now try to appoint psychiatric examinatin to "recognize" him "abnormal" to put in psychiatric clinic (known "punitive psychiatry" of late USSR times)
   

Alison doesn't lack sufficient imagination. Alison has superior local knowledge. 
China locked down it's population during covid for reasons beyond epidemiology. It was to both demonstrate to the West and prove to itself that state capacity was such that it could exert that level of control on its population for a year or more during a significant crisis. Dam busting on that scale is just a one-weird-trick approach to the threat China poses to Taiwan. You'd be better off leaving it to late night tv where it belongs. 

Not how it really works.  Mainly because “the law”.  The international community has never passed laws on the use of nuclear weapons.  Restrictions and limitations on their use are all managed by treaties.  The employment of nuclear weapons is essentially off the legal map.
As JonS pointed out, striking a large dam that would lead to massive civilian casualties is against the law.
Fellas can we not drift into “let’s do warcrimes because XYZ?”  C’mon, we are supposed to be the adults in an internet of children.  No, we can not condone warcrimes because Russia did them (and oh we made a lot of noise when they blew that dam down by Kherson).  We cannot condone them because “back in WW2 everyone did it” - doesn’t freakin matter, take a look at your calendar…what year does it say.  Most international law on warcrimes were written after WW2 because everyone was doing them.  WW2 was an example of what a total war looked like when everyone sat around after WW1 and did nothing.  So we decided that was a bad thing and passed a whole bunch of laws to prevent it from happening again.
We do not do war crimes for some very good reasons:
Unity.  If Ukraine (or anyone else) starts playing fast and loose with unrighteous targeting, we risk splitting the coalition of support for Ukraine.  Canada for instance would lose its mind and likely start turning off the taps.
Escalation.  Ok, we take out a dam, kill a bunch of civilians.  Russia potato-in-the-exhaust-pipes a nuclear power plant.  You see where this goes.
Post-war justice.  You want criminal prosecution for Bucha?  Might want to skip committing warcrimes of your own.
Utility.  It won’t work.  A mass killing of Russian civilians anywhere will very likely drive enormous active support into Putin’s arms.  We will wind up with a stronger Russian Will, not a weaker one.
So can we please skip warcrimes week…again?

I don't really follow this logic. What makes you think that having a weapon that theoretically could crack a big dam is going to stop an authoritarian government from its expansionist goals? The CCP has proven time and time again that they are willing to suffer huge economic hits and lose tens of millions of lives in pursuit of their political objectives. And the people of China have spent almost a century living under this regime, developing a fatalist worldview that sounds similar to how Russia watchers on this thread describe the people of Russia.
There is no critical mass of disgruntled citizens sitting on a knife edge, just waiting for a single catastrophic event to have them storm Zhongnanhai and boot out their great leader. Protests in the country are small and localized and rapidly squashed. News of them - or any kind of activity that undermines the party line - is suppressed. Dissent is largely kept behind closed doors, expressed only in close social circles. The focus for most people is staying under the radar, trying to get rich (but not so rich it will attract attention) and - for some - to get their family out. Anyone who legitimately cares about the broader success of the country and not just their own personal advancement has necessarily bought into the current political structures and thus will not challenge them in any significant way.
My current feeling is that China definitely under Xi, and probably under the CCP more broadly, is going to push Taiwan till the very end. I do not see any face-saving escape hatch at this point. Even if they cannot win the war, if they start it, they will keep fighting it, just as Russia appears to be doing in Ukraine. But for Taiwan the pre-war status quo is worse, because nobody formally recognizes it as the independent country it clearly already is, so it's already excluded from being an active player in global affairs, thanks to the overwhelming economic pressure China is able to apply to the rest of the world. Is there any wunderwaffe Taiwan could point across the Strait that would nullify that pressure? I don't think so.
In standing up to China, I think the pen will be mightier than the sword. But, of course, the CCP knows that, which is why they have invested so much into controlling the public discourse and exchange of ideas - not just in the country they govern but increasingly around the rest of the world too.

Ok then this should probably be part of the tourney info/instructions. Just a reminder that save and finish later isn’t supported. And to ignore any tourney files that show up in the saved games & PBEM list. I know trying to keep it short and sweet to avoid TLDR! 😅

Simply put, control of just over 1/2 of 1/3rd of the US government isn't really enough to stop what the rest of it wants. There  will be some delays in votes and some bumps along the way buy what has happened in the House is ultimately a good thing for Ukraine. The Putin wing of the House GOP caucus just tried to shut down the government, overstepped politically and failed. This coming week, there will be a motion to vacate the Speaker's chair and Democrats very likely step in to save McCarthy as there aren't really the vote in the GOP caucus for anyone else would take the job if they won it.
The price of that action will be aid to Ukraine. Finis.

Here used play of words in UKR and RUS - "zamis"/"zamyes" - "kneading", which except bakery term means "intensive and hard fighting". This video is for multiple "armchair generals", who concerning about slow offensive, demand immediate results and give advices how to make war.
Soldier bakes the same sort of bread, calling "palianytsia", which became a shibbolth in first stage of war and a meme ) 

Ukraine hitting the nail on the head again:
 

Strong people make good times. Good times born weak people. Weak people make hard times. Hard times born strong people. 

Act how?  Apologize for what?  “I am sorry I was not briefed?”  “As CDS I don’t do full background checks on everyone who visits Parliament?”  I call BS on that.  
We are becoming so apologist that those apologies do not mean anything anymore.  One can apologize for sins of commission or omission, yet none of these really apply in this situation.  The CDS was called to a special session of Parliament for the President of Ukraine.  Some nitwit 20-something staffer in the Parliamentary Protocol office didn’t double check on another nitwit 20-something staffer in the Speakers office - neither of whom have looked at WW2 history since high-school (and even then all we ever talk about is freakin Normandy).  The CDS stood up to honour a Ukrainian WW2 veteran, with everyone else, and then wound up wearing it when it comes to light that a 15 second Google search could have headed this whole thing off.
He has likely been ordered not to say or do anything while the Prime Minister try’s to stop the bleeding - a Liberal appointed CDS apologizing for “something” is essentially admitting culpability that Gen E is not entitled to and would be highly politicized.  So I am really not sure what the “Act” looks like in this situation.  I guess he could re-iterate that we in the CAF really don’t like Nazis?  Please do not apply for recruitment?  Nazis were really bad and WW2 was pretty big and complicated so please use Google and stop relying on Saving Private Ryan as your sole datapoint?

There's a note in yesterday's ISW report, about a UKR attack on the Robtyne-Verbove at least 4 companies, preceded by a massive artillery barrage. I had also noticed reports of this on twitter. There were also reports of a heavy drone wave leading the advance, pinning the RUS in place as the mech inf moved up, then pushing out as the infantry took hold. 
I dont know if the assault pushed much further on (doubt it) after the initial success, and it does appear they were fully successful.
It sounds like one of the larger set-piece assaults in a while, with drones organic to the assault plan and critical for success, not just added as a useful afterthought.
As I understand it the RUS line was fully manned but overwhelmed by artillery, then drones then IFV fires then infantry in a straight up frontal attack.
This implies the ZSU was able to mass, deploy (including clear lanes through minefields), assault and hold without RUS fires impeding any one stage. The scale of the attack implies a very wide blind spot in the RUS tactical ISR, even if only for a while. That's quite a good achievement and suggests we'll see more from this brigade (unfortunately I lost the tweet that has it, perhaps someone knows?).
I'm particularly interested in how they achieved local Drone supremacy.
 

That's an interesting opinion on what's going on.  Except that we're spending nearly 800 BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR on our military.  OMG we're going broke because we used ~5% of our already spent money to actually try to do something, militarily, that will help the world be a better place.   What cumulative effect on our country??  This is just utter horses-t.  If we had just stood by & let Putin win in UKR would he then decide to not try to poison all the world's democracies?  Would he not use fossil fuels to extort europe every time he wanted to?  This is tankie nonsense.
We have mountains of gear gathering dust and that's a huge portion of what we've sent.
And just because I am on a rant on this:  How about we turn this around by saying "those that want to freeze the conflict haven't given any thought to the cumulative effect on the world of pulling Putin's *** out of the fire".  Gawd this makes my blood boil.  

I read the newsarticle Seedorf posted that somehow claimed new kind of evidence surfaced but everything in there was identical to the investigative report that was published in germany more in depth roughly a  month ago and was discussed here too. The german investigative report was very onesided and ignored a lot of evidence  that pointed in russian direction and it failed to plausibly establish how the Andromeda could do the northsteam sabotage.  The only  new "fact" in the dutch article was that traces of the explosive HMX was found at the site of sabotage. I am no forensic expert but there are different reasons I would be highly sceptical of this fact. But even if true. HMX would be one  of the most probable explosives that one would use for such a bombing by diver. And if the Andromeda was a false Flag, then it would be very easy for the perpetrator to plant the same kind of explosive that was used in the bombings.
You say the complexity of the operation was overestimated. Do you have any idea what kind of complexity is needed to do this kind of operation? I work in UXO,UXB, ERB disposal in the northsea, baltic sea and rivers. I work on specialised ships and with divers (most of them  with navy background) that do exactly this kind of work that would be needed for the northstream sabotage.
The complexity of this operation is a LOT more than just being able to do the dive. The equipment needed just to do the simple dive ignoring all of the  other specialised equipment: on the ships I work on this equipment is located in  containers that are half as big as the Andromeda. All those gastanks alone do take a lot of room. You need a lot more of those for a deep sea diving suit/ hard-hat than you would for a simple diving suit.
The first problem the divers  had to overcome is to find the pipelines and then the right locations for the bombing. This alone is a very big problem. To locate those you need a depth sonar or a submersible. Good luck instaling those on the Andromeda.  In those depths it is pitch black. Those divers have to work completely blind. They are trained to do so but they still need instruction  by those one the ship  with exactly this kind of equipment that the Andromeda lacks. And on top of that they did this on the same day at  three different locations. And they did the dive on a very instable plattform which means high chance of death.
Then there is the question of  the explosives. The theory that was presented in the investigative report was that only a small amount was used.  There exist seismic profiles of those explosions  and those hint  at  a  bigger amount of explosives used. It is not conclusive evidence but it points in another direction.
Not one of the divers I work with thinks its realistically possible to do the northstream sabotage from the  Andromeda in a short amount of time.
There is more  I could write but it is already late here I have to work very early tomorrow.
One thing I have to say. The reporting on northsteam really does remind me on the reporting in german media about MH17 after it happend. The media tried to be "neutral" but it was mostly pointing in ukrainian direction and sometimes it was just reciting russian propaganda. Even after Bellingcat could show exactly what BUK was used by which unit german media ignored this evidence. It was only after the dutch reports with conclusive evidence were published that the reporting did change.
 

UKR troops completely push off Russians behind railway line on southern flank of Bakhmut from Andriivka to Klishchhivka. Also in Kurdiumivka and near Andriivka areas UKR forces have taken Russian forward positions beyond railroad
 
According to Russian TG in last attempt to regain positions near Andriivka, Shorm Z convicts could gain foothold on Andrrivka outskirt, but VDV troops, which have to arrive to develop success were dispersed by UKR artillery fire, so all convicts were eliminated. 
Russians also write part of Wagners, who detached from new Wagner command already transferring to MoD units and soon will be moved to Bakhmut. Looks like Russian command has a lack of capable troops there, so MoD actively agitate Wagnerites to sign contarcts. Recently there was information Rosgvardiya is going to establish special units of former Wagnerites. 
New PMC Wagner commander "Lotos" summoned unpleasnatr of part of Wagner fighters, so they seek new places. Reportedly large number of former Wagnerites now in MoD PMC "Redut" and also prepare to new Bakhmut campaign.

Yeah, now the first "magic word" has been achieved, that being breakthrough. The word has been in the news for the whole summer prematurely.
Now "Breakout" might not even be something Ukraine is going to try. If they see it as too risky and choose to keep endlessly pushing the Russians back as they have seen best so far.

We want the one above “breakthrough”.  Ignore “encircled”.  Breakout, is regaining freedom of movement and therefore tempo, therefore creating decision superiority and expanding options spaces.  Last Fall we saw UA breakout battle, we want that.  Enough of these tactical breakthroughs adding up as the RA system erodes might just do it yet.

well, ISW is "calling it".
 
 

It seems it was necessary to make this video which states the obvious. That frightens me a bit. But still a good thing.
 

When the pandemic started I was tasked with a team to go off and do a quick and dirty study of the impact trends of pandemics across history and  then translate that into potential risks coming out of COVID.  We took about three months and I read more about pandemics than I ever wanted to know.  In the end we came up with a long list of repeated observable trends and then translated them into modern context.
The one thing I pulled from that experience is that every pandemic is the same, and every pandemic is unique.  They all follow similar impact patterns and trends, yet they all were unique in the context of the event and what followed was highly shaped by their context.  To my mind wars are exactly the same.  They are all the same, and they are all unique at the same time.  So while universal metrics exist they miss the context of the war in the time it happens and context matters very much.  So if you want to measure the impact of a war…study the damn war in detail and in context.  

Morawiecki's words were misreported, as he did not declare a policy shift, but stated as a matter of fact that Poland at the moment is not supplying arms to Ukraine, because it needs to rearm itself. This is generally true because most of assets that Poland could spare have been donated already and the new deliveries have yet to be realised. The press being the press reported this in a way which both creates controversy and satsifies the biases of the writers and the readers.
Still what Morawiecki refers to is important to understand the present crisis in Polish-Ukrainian relations. Poland was determined to help from the beginning and had a significant stock of post-soviet stuff which blended relatively well with Ukrainian assets. This caused Polish aid to be hugely important in the first period of the war. By now, we have largely shot our bolt and do not have so much to give anymore. Western European aid is on the rise, and countries like e.g. Germany can help Ukraine in EU accession negotiations which Poland cannot. Therefore, our value as an ally has decreased, apparently to the extent that Zelenski decided to prioritise the profit marigins on the sale of grain over UKR-POL relations. As long as we do not close the border or the Jasionka airport - which is not going to happen - Ukrainians will continue to benefit from most of Poland's value as an ally in this war.  Also, he may be counting on currying favour with the EU commission and Western European governements by creating a difficult situation for the PiS govt shortly before the elections.
Conversely, most of Ukraine's value as an ally to Poland is realised via Ukraine defending itself and killing Russians. At this stage it seems they are capable of doing it without Polish aid deliveries, with Poland acting just as an airhead and land bridge to UKR, so I expect this will be the equilibrium on which the matters will settle: we will keep providing the passive support plus training, repair services and deliver under the existing contracts. Cheering for Ukraine's wins and enthusiasm for post-war close cooperation will decrease, money and asset collection among the general populace will fall away, etc. - but these have always been optional and had no impact on the general direction of the war.
BTW this is exactly the course of events which was predicted by many Polish political analysts of the "realist" persuasion.
 

No. This is particular situation of one regiment. But such units on southern flank of Bakhmut much more than UKR forces. A guy from 3rd assault brigade told UKR advance in this area is unique because this was offensive, when UKR troops had MUCH less troops than defendeing side. He also told UKR forces are phisically and moral exhausted, they suffered lack of armor, but they and other assault units advance forward just on motivation  and fury

Unofficial twitter of Air Forces commented this "inside" with Russian prowerb "The fear has big eyes" (means someone, who fears exaggregates the danger)
Also interesting Rybar at least recognized three missiles "fell down" (hmm... new-language "hit") "former military unit". Crimean authorities claimed "fragments of UAV fell into vineyards and set fire the grass"
You can see "burning grass" with black smoke and locals could this watch many hours - there are many photos, despite Russian authorities warned about punishments for this. 
 

Also locals wrote about many ambulances driving toward smoke area - maybe some "winegrovers" got burns from "burning grass"? %) 
Reportedly territory of 744th Comm Center of Black Sea Fleet Command was hit in 2 km north from  Verhnyesadove village (northern suburb of Sevastopol). According to local chat rumors barrack and HQ building were hit. No final information about losses, but allegedly there are only wounded 109 alone. Among servicemen were many young conscripts (they formally don't participate in war until sign contract after 6 months of service).   
I note, when UKR strike ammo dump near Oktyabrskoye airfield about two months ago, local authorities also "shot down" all UAVs/missiles and "extinguished a burned grass". But since this time parents of more than dozen of conscripts try to find any info about their boys, who served on this base. They even openly established a group in local TG. Their children likely just evaporized, when ammo, which they unloaded, detonated after strike. But command of military unit doesn't say anything.   

"Storm Shadow" on route over Crimea, Simferopol district
 

Russian TG claims HQ of 7th air-assault division was struck during planning. Reportedly many officers were killed and wounded. As if this confirmed Yevgeniy Khanin - chief of veteran organization of 7th division. But Russian source says it happened on "left bank of Dnepr in Kherson oblast". It's strange, because division operates in more than 200 km from this place. 
UKR sources today reported about missile strike on Melitopol, so maybe it was there. 
 

Exellent 3D projection of southern Bakhmut flank from Poulet Volant. Obviously seen next objectives of UKR forces - to seize ridges and reach the road. After this lowlands will be on direct LOS. 

In present time Russians are conducting desperate "meat attacks" on "useless ruines". Obviously "big HQ bosses" were very angry by lost of two villages and new mobs of mobiks and Shtorm Z were directed to die. Though, they reportedly achieved some local successes yesterday. Their manpower advantage forced UKR troops to abandon two positions south from Andriivka and one in Kurdiumivka area. All attacks on Klishchiivka were repelled. 
One Russian TG complains that reaction of Russian command on the loss of villages is "hysterical" and this caused next waves of unprepared "meat assaults" with bad coordination, with poor artillery support, which again will grind reserves, so through some time a moment will come, when nobody will left to defend the road and this can cause crash of the front.
 

Completely mysterious video - Russian drone attacks UKR Dolhintseve airfield (5 km east from Kryvyi Rih) and damaged MiG-29 (or it decoy). This airfield located just in 67 km from closest Russian-held territory.

You can read active discussion in comments with wide spectre of opinions from this is cool CGI to this was real attack. 
First of all, we have to throw out arguments about satellite maps show abandoned airfield. This is 2018 year,  later Dolhintese was reсonstructed

But quality of picture really looks like 3D render, though it can be just compression artifacts.  
What more questionable - a difference of angles of attack from drone "eyes" and from controling UAV


Maybe later some UKR unofficial source will tell more what was it, but no matter was this real MiG-29 or decoy (I doubt Air Force command kept value combat planes on airfield in range of Smerch or Tornado-S salvo). now we can suppose next:
1. Russians now have Lancet-type drone, capable to fly over 70 km
2. Or this was some experimental aerial Lancet-carrier (Orion for example)
3. Or this was diversion group sneaked on UKR territory (90 % fantastic, but...)
4. Or this is old video of 2022, when Russian really were very close to Kryvyi Rih (about 40 km), but then anyway it would be suicidal to keep aircraft on this airfield.