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Holien

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  1. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from chris talpas in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm we in the UK have personal experience of this and it has cost us dearly. A very expensive mistake...
    I hope for the world's sake America takes note that tearing up years of work and cooperation doesn't magically solve anything and creates problems no one was told would happen...
  2. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm we in the UK have personal experience of this and it has cost us dearly. A very expensive mistake...
    I hope for the world's sake America takes note that tearing up years of work and cooperation doesn't magically solve anything and creates problems no one was told would happen...
  3. Like
    Holien got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm we in the UK have personal experience of this and it has cost us dearly. A very expensive mistake...
    I hope for the world's sake America takes note that tearing up years of work and cooperation doesn't magically solve anything and creates problems no one was told would happen...
  4. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Lieutenant Ash in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Don't be so sure...
    😀
  5. Upvote
    Holien got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm we in the UK have personal experience of this and it has cost us dearly. A very expensive mistake...
    I hope for the world's sake America takes note that tearing up years of work and cooperation doesn't magically solve anything and creates problems no one was told would happen...
  6. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yesterday in Kamensk-Shakhtinskiy, Rostov oblast UKR UAVs hit the building of chemical factory, producing MLRS rocket fuel components. There is no information about the scale of detriment, just an unverified photo of probable fire in one of factory's building.
    Local authorities as usual claimed all drones were shot down, just one fell down on territory of the factory, damaging some windows
        
  7. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Two days ago UKR drone repeated attack of Russian over-horizon 29B6 "Konteiner" radar complex (it's receiver part) with 3000 km range near Kovylkino village. On the video we can see distant explosion.
      
     


    Some Russian TG claimed after second attack radar site isn't operational. Single research institute, which developed it almost dead and the factory, where this radar equipment was built already doesn't exist. Radar had been producing during 5 years and about 10-15 years were spent for it deployment, ajustment works and test service until it became fully operational. If this true, Russia got huge blind zone on own SW direction, so if Ukraine has super-long-range drones it can fly more free in this window to reach Volga and Syberia strategical military and civil infrastructure 

    PS. US media as always was alarmed because of this. Newsweek issued an article that this is dangerous attack, which can cause esaclation (OMG...) because Ukraine attacked startegical radar site, intended i.e. for early warning of nuclear strike and this according Russian nuclear doctrine can be considered as a reason of nuclear weapon usage. 
     
     
  8. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Many different sources official and unofficial, Russian TG and UKR ATESH underground in Cimea give different information about results. We should wait satellite images. 
    Here is General Staff posted a mixed video - at the start we can see probably ATACAMS launches (on one of videos, filmed by locals clearly sounds of multiple cluster minitions explosions are heard), then intensive flashing burning - likely SAM missiles detonate. 
    FIRMS map of fire on the airfield

    Allegedle (but unverified) photos of destroyed launchers on airfield

    Total claimed losses of different sources:
    3 S-400 launchers + radar, 2 S-300 launchers, staying under repair in repairing units on airfield, 2 Ka-52 and 2 Mi-28 helicopters seriously damaged, about 30 of personnel killed, 80 wounded. 
    GUR claims: 4 S-400 launchers and 3 radars, AD control post, "Fundamnet-M" automatized control complex. 
    Russian TG claims: "nothing what can fly wasn't hit"
    Last one is on the photo:
     
    "Fundament-M" allows to coordinate actions of SAM regiment autimatically in repelling of aerial attack. There are no enough information in open sources about this stuff. First time this system appeared on armament of AD in 2015.
  9. Like
    Holien got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm we in the UK have personal experience of this and it has cost us dearly. A very expensive mistake...
    I hope for the world's sake America takes note that tearing up years of work and cooperation doesn't magically solve anything and creates problems no one was told would happen...
  10. Upvote
    Holien reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is potentially worse than that.  This sort of dysfunction does nothing but feed anti-democracy sentiment.  Democracies die due to abandonment, history demonstrates this quite well.  If the system is seen as "unworkable" democracies often choose suicide.  This is the threat to the US and global stability.  Trump and Greene are symptoms of something far deeper and dangerous....apathy that leads to despair.
  11. Upvote
    Holien reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    From what I’m hearing, deal is done but passage is not. There could and are likely to be some bumps ahead. What has changed is that it has finally gotten through to everyone but the loons that disaster is being courted and not just for Ukraine. Keep those fingers crossed. 
  12. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The study was done in the Netherlands, and another in Germany, so this criterium applied. I don't know if they extrapolated anything to another latitude.
    But the panels were bi-facial and adjusted to face towards east and west, not south (and north).
    The idea is that they have their output maxima in the morning and the evening. The idea is to augment, not to supplant traditional solar farms, and reduce the need for batteries.
    That means it would work in the equatorial region as well, where the sun also rises and settles in east and west. But bi-facial panels are more expensive. 
    https://undecidedmf.com/have-we-been-doing-solar-wrong-all-along/
    (@admins my apologies for the distraction I brought in - I will respond via DMs if anything else is to be said about solar panels)
  13. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Some "homefront" news. Maybe we have heard of the recent fires at the American and British 155mm munitions factories?
    Might be just a coincidence, but...
    https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/generalbundesanwalt-ermittelt-zwei-mutmassliche-russische-saboteure-in-bayern-verhaftet-a-0115bebd-195a-41fb-83be-da8d642045cd
    In Germany, two Russo-Germans have been arrested for espionage and sabotage. They are accused of taking pictures of American and German military installations in Bavaria (one of which is a training facility for Ukrainians on Abrams tanks) and planning to use explosives to disrupt military support transports en route to Ukraine. 
    Both of them were in contact with the FSB and one of them was member of a Russian militia unit which operated in Donetzk / Donbas 2014 to 2017. The unit is considered a terrorist group in Germany, so that Russo-German is also accused of membership in a terrorist organisation.
     
     
  14. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It was found in experiments that vertical solar panels offer basically the same energy output as an angled panel.
    The reason is that although the panel receives less solar radiation energy, the generated heat can dissipate better, which results in increased efficiency, which brings them up to the same output as an angled panel.
     
  15. Upvote
    Holien reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Then they came for der Mittelstand....
    I keep posting energy tech stuff because the modular/miniature/precision armaments revolution is absolutely experiencing the exact same dynamics, just not so well documented (yet).
    The West will innovate, but the Chinese will beat us to mass market, every time. With quality more than adequate for purpose. As innovative firms and their ecosystems starve and die, so too will innovation.
    Solar panels are now used as fences in Germany because they are more affordable than the usual fencing.
    The market standard for solar panels is now moving to Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (#TOPCon) technology, which improves solar cell architecture to reduce efficiency losses.
    The technology was developed by Germany's Fraunhofer Institute in 2013, but large-scale manufacturing takes place mostly in China.
    "European manufacturers have no money to change to the new technology. So now there is no competitive advantage anymore and they have to sell old technology."
    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/squeeze-on-european-solar-manufacturers-curbs-innovation-cementing-china-s-lead-81072375


     
  16. Upvote
    Holien reacted to Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As cool as it is to see whats being developed... 
    Can these guys stop taking pictures of everything? What ever happened to secrecy?
  17. Like
    Holien got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In about an hour I will be drawing electric from the grid at 0p.
    This last weekend we had too much power and I was actually paid to store energy. EV and house batteries were topped up and I got paid!!!
    The UK right at the moment is pumping water back uphill in Norway...
    Europe is well on the way to having a pretty good integrated energy system and during high wind high sun we easily generate more than needed.
  18. Like
    Holien got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    While the messenger is important I think it is as much how that message is transmitted to those who fall for this.
    There are certain TV channels that are as important to this undermining of trust and spread out right lies. Without this support Trump wouldn't get any traction.
  19. Like
    Holien got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I suggest it's not a good idea.
    A targeted response against those responsible rather than creating any more terrorists by killing innocent people. 
    Bombing people to the stone age has already escalated this to a level that was uncalled for..
  20. Upvote
    Holien reacted to zinz in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://mastodon.social/@ChrisO_wiki/112279689602601908
    Russia is discussing how to deal with the destruction of their refineries. The proposed lowering of standards would seriously damage their more modern vehicles. 
  21. Like
    Holien got a reaction from Sequoia in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Children are always innocent. Simple.
    Not their fault where they are born.
    I strongly suggest you pause your posts on this topic.. 
    I have deep respect for you and understand your pov but IMO it's not something for this thread.
    I will PM you tomorrow.
     
  22. Upvote
    Holien reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I’ve been reading those folks pushing the idea that Iran intentionally flubbed the attack on Israel with some…restrained amusement. Us old folks remember how analysis of the USSR routinely made the same threat-inflating mistake as analysts responded, consciously or not, to pressures that essentially drove them to see every flaw, error or omission as yet another devious maneuver by those mustachio twisting apparatchiks in Moscow to lower our guard. 
    The reality is that yes, Iran didn’t throw the kitchen sink at Israel but at the same time, the idea was for Iran to establish a higher level of deterrence against Israeli strikes directly on Iranian territory, assets and personnel. To do that, Iran need to actually show the ability to do significant damage in ways that Israel cannot address. What happened instead? Iran managed to unite Israel’s neighbors around it (despite, Bibi and Gaza!) to such a degree that they are bragging quietly how many Iranian munitions they shot down (including by the pilot/princess of Jordan) and celebrating (not very quietly) how well they can and will cooperate against Iran. 
    Deterrence is information without the cure. If Iran had managed to get through and wallop a couple of Israel airfields and hit a scattering of other bases, that would not have set off a conflagration and would have delivered a solid deterrence message. It would have been “We send 300 and hit 20% of the time. Imagine if we send 3000?”. Now, Israel and the rest of the region can imagine it and has reason to think they can handle it (if, again more to Iran’s strategic detriment, they keep the US onside and willing to lend support).
    Deterrence isn’t achieved by demonstrating what you can’t do. 
  23. Like
    Holien got a reaction from danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A question for our American friends and any who might understand the DC politics... You know who I am looking at...

    We are getting more and more evidence that the Biden team are really asking Ukraine to stop with the Russian refinery attacks?

    Why?

     
    Russian Oil is not making up much of the market, it has an effect in cutting Russian spending so why?
    My poor old brain can only think of the following.
    It could be they don't want to give folk the idea of how easy it is to do. But that genie is out already. The box is open... Lamp rubbed et al...

    It could be that they know Israel is not going to act in a restrained proportionate manner with Iran and the whole world supply is likely to be disrupted.

    If Iran decides to go full in the oil refineries in the area could be taken down very quickly with Iranian backed drones...
    Any ideas on a postcard to the usual forum...
  24. Like
    Holien got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Just FYI Europe is trying to deal with the attacks on Ukraines energy infrastructure...
    https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/news/eu-sends-emergency-aid-ukraine-after-further-attacks-energy-infrastructure-2024-04-09_en
    Long term and near term if Ukraine can get Wind Turbines and Solar (all time cheap prices on solar) a lot of what Russia is trying to do will be undone and Ukraine will be in a way better position after the war as it will not be reliant on Russian Gas or Fossil Fuels.
    The Energy market is changing and it will remove the stranglehold of the Axis of Evil as some folk like to call them..

  25. Like
    Holien got a reaction from kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    A question for our American friends and any who might understand the DC politics... You know who I am looking at...

    We are getting more and more evidence that the Biden team are really asking Ukraine to stop with the Russian refinery attacks?

    Why?

     
    Russian Oil is not making up much of the market, it has an effect in cutting Russian spending so why?
    My poor old brain can only think of the following.
    It could be they don't want to give folk the idea of how easy it is to do. But that genie is out already. The box is open... Lamp rubbed et al...

    It could be that they know Israel is not going to act in a restrained proportionate manner with Iran and the whole world supply is likely to be disrupted.

    If Iran decides to go full in the oil refineries in the area could be taken down very quickly with Iranian backed drones...
    Any ideas on a postcard to the usual forum...
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