chrisl

Tom Coopers thoughts from the ACIG forum 
“Frontlines... Orikhiv sector... Ukrainian reports are indicating a break-through of the first line of defences in the Lobkove area, sometimes around 7-8 June, with an advance on Zherebyanky as a consequence. This in turn should have collapsed the Russian defence line further south-east, and enabled an advance south-west and south-east of Dolynka, all the way to Peremozhne (about 15km in total, on a frontline some 15km wide). With this, Ukrainians should be something like 'half-way through the 2nd line of defence'. South of Orikhiv, Ukrainians should be somewhere between Stepove, Rivne, and Chystopilia, west of Solodka Balka and about 15km outside Tokmak: i.e. through the 2nd line of defence. 

Further east, i.e. south of Hulyaipole: the aim there seems to be to outflank the Russian defences of Polohy on both sides, but so far, the advance remained limited in comparison to that in the Orikhiv area. Essentially, Ukrainians are still busy clearing lanes through the minefields and approaching Robotine: even if they have reached the southern edge of deep minefields protecting the first line of the Russian defences in several directions, they are yet to start manoeuvring freely. 

South, east and south-east of Velyka Novosilka...the western prong of this advance seems to have been checked by the Russians after it reached the hills dominating Staromaiorske. However, yesterday, the eastern - and much belittled - attack drove all the way from Oktyabrska and Novomaiorske to Krasna Polana, in southern direction, while developing in a new, western direction, too: on Staromaiorsk. That in turn forced the surviving Russians to abandon - in panic - their positions in Neskuchne, Storozheve and Blahodatne - and that without a single shot: they fled in south-western direction, into Starmoaiorske. Moreover, if the report on advance to Krasna Polana is truth: that's about 50% of the way to Mariupol. 

(I.e. here we have a similar situation like in the II Nagorny Karabakh War, when Armenians were reporting they're 'breaking Azeri bones', while the Azeris were already deep into their southern flank... but this wasn't reported by any of social-media-mappers, because there were 'no videos'....)

Further east, the Russians were defending well in the area south-west of Vuhledar, but it is possible that the Ukrainian advance further east - via Volodymyrivka to Blahodatne - has meanwhile forced them to withdraw. Here, Ukrainians are meanwhile outside the minefields and manoeuvring freely. What is certain is that there is - or at elast was - a very bitter battle for Blahodatne going on: that's some 5km north of Volnovakha, which is the crucial place in this part of Ukraine (on the highway from Donetsk to Mariupol). On 9 June, the Russians deployed reserves from Donetsk for a counterattack into the eastern flank of this advance (that's what caused the fighting for Blahodatne); however, yesterday, they seem to have changed their decision and withdrew/re-deployed the troops in question further south, into their third line of defence, between Volnovakha and Mariupol. 

Overall, several penetrations of 15-25km, but the Russians are still holding out wherever they can: i.e. the ZSU is still not 'through' the worst of this. Moreover, the VSRF is 'streaming' really a lots of reinforcements into southern Zaporizhzhya. What is also not mentioned (in general) that - no matter how much criticised (foremost by such like me) - the ZSU troops are outmatching the Russians, in training, manoeuvre, firepower, and precision. Thus, every of their attacks is causing massive Russian losses, even if sometimes costly (at least in vehicles) for the ZSU.”
 
 

ISW June 10th summary:
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems.
We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is. 

I just saw a picture of Ukrainian soldier standing on a beach saying "there were developments". I am going to assume that it is trolling and they are not on Azov shore yet, but one can hope 😃

If they mange a complete breakthrough and sweep south, I would be tempted to "misread the map" and go all the way to Taganrog. Surely it was part of Ukraine at some point in the last thousand years.

If they have suckered the Russians AGAIN, and drive right down Donbas behind the Russians, and cut of the entire army I will die laughing. It will be worth it.

I would suspect it's some kind of culturally embedded fatalism rather than fanaticism.

You are right I see it too. Besides the grass in front looks like it has been painted in by a Photoshop brush. It is too blurry.

Is it just me, or is the signpost sticking through the track?

But do you know where it could fall in a couple weeks?
Through the former reservoir bed that Russia decided to drain, and around the flanks of the RU defenses.  There won't be any defensive works there, and Russia probably doesn't have the resources right now to extend defensive positions into that space under fire and while it's still muddy.  But depending on what's on the bottom, if the UA can suppress Russian fire within range of it, it could provide access for a rapid flanking move.

Ok, well things are getting clearer.  Retreating Bradley’s are extracting.  One flies by, second one clearly hit a land mine.  Troops de-bus, no panic the take cover while the gun camera Bradley provides covering fire (ballsy not to simply bail).  Everyone starts popping smoke and troops jump on Bradley to get out of there.
First point shows why it is a bad idea to try to drive back out.  Always push, if you get hit at least you have cleared as far as you got. But I suspect things had gone so wrong they abandoned the mission.  Second troops were controlled and did the right thing post mine strike. Third, no RA artillery. Now I am sure they were very concerned it was going to start dropping but that minefield is not being effectively covered.  Those two videos are four minutes, RA mortars should at least be hammering them - and we are glad they weren’t but that is poor cover of an obstacle.
Lastly, no idea what they were shooting at but obviously in treeline in direction of gun and popped smoke.  So best guess, a recon in force got hit by ATGM from a treeline.  Likely lost breaching vehicles.   At least two Bradleys tried to drive back out (bad) other may have been hit coming or going.  Hit more mines because they were in a Devils OODA loop but that gun Bradley looks like it kept it head and got those troops out because we don’t see a lot of bodies in the Russian videos.  
So bad day in a minefield, looks like most of the troops out alive, so they live to fight again and have proven recon is a dangerous job.  RA still have tank hunting teams and their arty support is questionable (at least in this area).  Hardly a disaster, some AAR points but no need to start calling the Kremlin to discuss terms yet.

So recall the UA Fall offensive took about 3 months to shape, form up and culminate.  Early days in what is likely going to be an operation that will last all summer.  
These guys are operating in a different war…things will likely go slow until they go fast.  Unless the RA is so rotted that they shatter early but we will see.  This whole thing right now looks like probing and prodding to be honest.  This is not to see the enemy - the UA can do that already - it is to see what the enemy can and will do as a reaction.  My guess is that we have moved into a more active shaping phase, the main assaults have yet to come.

They weren't trying to kill anybody, it was pure messaging.
 

If they can put HE through specific windows in Moscow at will, that's some serious messaging.
 

A retreating army destroys infrastructure; and advancing army repairs infrastructure. 
Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions. These international laws prohibit attacks on infrastructure “containing dangerous forces” including explicitly “dams” and “dykes” if such attacks “may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.” Despite these prohibitions, conflicts over water and attacks on water systems are on the rise, with a dramatic increase in the past two decades.
There is precedent for Russian destruction of dams on the Dnieper River. In August 1941, during World War II, the retreating Soviet Army destroyed another dam on the Dnieper at Zaporizhzhia, the Dnieper Dam, to prevent it from falling into the hands of the advancing Nazis. At the time it was the largest dam in the world. The subsequent flooding reportedly killed tens of thousands of people downstream.
https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/

It is very hard to knock a small hole in a dam and not have that small hole become a very big hole in very short order.
Also, this whole episode is reminiscent of the shenanigans with the Roer River dams.

If they can put HE through specific windows in Moscow at will, that's some serious messaging.
 

There is a whole lot of video proof from this war that throwing a grenade well is the difference between living and dying. Infantry in all NATO armies should drill and practice it a lot more than than i think they do. Among other things it is easier and cheaper to practice than a lot of combat skills. They should hold brigade level competitions and the whole bit. 
 

If they can put HE through specific windows in Moscow at will, that's some serious messaging.
 

If they can put HE through specific windows in Moscow at will, that's some serious messaging.
 

If they can put HE through specific windows in Moscow at will, that's some serious messaging.
 

Well, one thing I was going to expand on was my comment about RBMK reactor designs being as they were partly (or maybe mostly) to be used not only for power but for weapons material. I started to but then stopped.
RBMKs have low U enrichment, easy access to swap out fuel, and therefore fuel is removed for reprocessing after short burn-up time. All of these things are necessary for Pu weapons fuel, and RBMKs have it all.
Pu-239 is created in fission, as a decay product from neutron absorption, and so is Pu-240 (absorbs another neutron from Pu-239). Pu-240 is not suitable for weapons warheads - too much spontaneous fission. So you want (ideally) pure Pu-239. This is not possible, because Pu, unlike U, cannot be enriched. It's physically impossible. It can't be chemically separated because it's all Pu. So your only choice is to NOT create much Pu-240. Short burn-up times accomplish this.
All of this is the reason that "normal" light water power reactors are not proliferation concerns. There was a lot of talk about Iran's Bushehr reactor in regards to proliferation. It's a LWR, with fuel provided by Russia and spent fuel given back to Russia. Even if Iran somehow reneged and kept the spent fuel, it would do no good. 1) they have no Pu reprocessing capability - it's a complex process and few countries have it, and 2) too much Pu-240 to make it useful and weapons material. Iran's Arak reactor was reconfigured to no longer be a possible source of Pu as part of the JCPOA.
Oh, wait. We stupidly withdrew from that agreement freeing Iran to do what they want. (I guess I'm diverging from my diverging here)
The US has and has in the past, specialized reactors run by the DOE for weapons production. No civilian power plant is involved in that in any way.
So there - geek out all you want. 
I love physics and especially nuclear physics. It's the way the universe works, and it's kind of cool that we can observe and determine it all not because we can see the particles and waves, but because we can detect the effects they have and determine the characteristics from that. Some of it is really mind-bending.  Like pair production in gamma radiation - direct conversion of waves into matter and back again. My favorite phenomena. Just hard to wrap your head around.
Dave
 

Hey man, we've been able to drivel on for many, many pages about tenuously related and stupidly contentious topics so please, feel free to info-dump on us!
I for one geek out on this stuff.

If there is more news on this later or if things change, I'll be sure to provide some commentary/perspective. 
Dave

Right above an article that says that Russian forces destroyed 1500 Ukrainian troops, 8 leopard tanks, and 10^9 other armored vehicles.  There are satellite assets that can give the water levels of all the reservoirs pretty accurately - there will probably be some geospatial hydrology grogs posting on twitter in a few days.

Right above an article that says that Russian forces destroyed 1500 Ukrainian troops, 8 leopard tanks, and 10^9 other armored vehicles.  There are satellite assets that can give the water levels of all the reservoirs pretty accurately - there will probably be some geospatial hydrology grogs posting on twitter in a few days.