John Kettler

I have decided to quit my job in order to devote myself full-time to reading this thread.

Haiduk,

Since we're talking here on page 228 about when and how the UA heavies may come down on the Russians at full force,  would refer you to my remarks regasrding a pic of ammo recovered from a captured Russian tank, where it was conspicuously obvious (3 rounds of HE, no CLGM and maybe 1 or 2 heat rounds, all else HE-frag) that this wasn't even close to the typical Cold War Russian loadout of 20% KE. My conclusion from this is that  at least the ammo load didn't reflect a foe expecting a tank battle. Would suggest UA look at ammo loadouts on other captured Russian tanks, in terms of splits in ammo types,and round counts of actual tank killing munitions carried, including CLGM if any. As we all know, a sample size of 1 has zero statistical value, but I believe there may (note conditional) be enough captured Russian tanks, taken on multiple Russian operational axes, to see whether that pic that was posted was a one off or maybe reflects a larger pattern. If the latter, that might have significance in seeing how well the Russians, using forces already in the field and in combat, are prepared to fight UA tanks with their own tanks, something I'd further note their doctrine strongly disfavors generally. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Was looking for a video I saw earlier in which hard proof was shown the media in Ukraine are using CNN-grade deception techniques (recall the reporter clinging to a pole in the hurricane while in reality a  powerful fan drenched him with water?) to paint a false picture of what's really happening in Kviv. In that not yet found anew video you could clearly see that an artificial barricade and surrounds had been built and the camera positioned in such a way that it could seem to be looking through an embrasure. Yet nothing was happening, the reporter was in body armor, and there was no damage at all to the buildings behind the barricade. Didn't find the video I wanted but I found something far more interesting and disturbing. Part of it was a BBC investigation of who Zelensky really is and where the real power lies in Ukraine. There are extensive BBC interviews with him, and you'll be amazed to know what he was doing before being elected President. The other part of it consists of one brutal exposure (through comparing videos and stills) after another of Russian deceptions, Ukrainian deceptions and media deceptions from a bunch of countries ref events in Ukraine and earlier events. The whole thing is presented in the context of "Wag The Dog", and the doc is interspersed with pertinent scenes from that 1997 film. Knew full well both sides were telling lies and hiding truth in this war, but nothing prepared me for what's revealed in this stunning doc. Some of the techniques revealed weren't even feasible when "Wag The Dog" was made. When it's all said and done at 21:50, you might find yourself wondering how much of "Wag The Dog" was disturbing, provocative fiction and how much was revelation of how credible false realities can be created and used to create uncertainty, fear, panic, even "justify" a war. 

https://inoneplace.com/thewatch/wag-the-dog-in-ukraine-can-you-trust-the-media/

Regards,

John Kettler

Can tell you from long and bitter experience that vehicles can and will bog on dry ground.  Not only that, they can and will Immobilize! If you have a high end AFV, that's the one this will happen to--with its flank exposed, no less. Contrariwise, if your oppnent had one it will kill everything of value, starting with your Combat Mission hopes and dreams, while being immune to anything you try to do to it. 

Regards,

John Kettler

Doc844,

In some ways, Ukraine has practically become a temporary Sixth Eye in the super tight FIVE EYES (US, UK, CA, AU, NZ), with privileged access to Ukraine related ELINT shared among them, together with anything relevant obtained from pro-Ukraine countries in the area, none of which want a visit from the Bear. Ukraine  is operating sophisticated comms and ISR provided by the US.  It's been reported the US has recon sat teams in Poland, so would imagine that Ukrainian authorities are getting some sort of help on that end, too, whether IMINT INTSUMs alone or reduced res imagery and IMINT INTSUMs as well I couldn't say. And there is now a tremendous amount of commercial military grade recon sat imagery available, too.  It helps greatly, too, that the weather has been clear, for it makes it very hard to hide anything of consequence from overhead detection, targeting and destruction. The US has provided this sort of intelligence support before, such as it did to the UK during the Falklands War, though UK is a FIVE EYES member, but remember, that's for ELINT. In the Falklands, the British maps dated back to the 1800s, so it was US IMINT, not just of the Falklands, but the sea around it and the Argentine naval and air bases, that was crucial.

Regards,

John Kettler

sburke,

Sometimes I can recall a thing I read long ago, and other times I can't recall in which of, say, a dozen tabs I looked at within the last hour I saw something important. There are times when it's completely lost from memory in a horrifying 30 seconds. Brother George has seen just this happen to me with an extremely simple rule mechanic for a WW II skirmish game. For someone who used to be a walking threat encyclopedia with a cavernous highly accurate memory, this is immensely frustrating. Am trying to be responsive to suggestions, but they have to deal with the same memory problems, too! What I'm trying to do now is get the freshest info possible and/or provide supplementary material, such as the Stinger/Piorun comparison video.

Regards,

John Kettler

That does not change the assessment.  All these high level assets, Arty, AD, Engineering, Comms and CPs, logistics (e.g. re-fuelers) are not normal losses.  Tanks, IFVs are supposed to die...it is their job.  All this other stuff is not, at least not in the volumes we are seeing. 

sburke,

Sometimes I can recall a thing I read long ago, and other times I can't recall in which of, say, a dozen tabs I looked at within the last hour I saw something important. There are times when it's completely lost from memory in a horrifying 30 seconds. Brother George has seen just this happen to me with an extremely simple rule mechanic for a WW II skirmish game. For someone who used to be a walking threat encyclopedia with a cavernous highly accurate memory, this is immensely frustrating. Am trying to be responsive to suggestions, but they have to deal with the same memory problems, too! What I'm trying to do now is get the freshest info possible and/or provide supplementary material, such as the Stinger/Piorun comparison video.

Regards,

John Kettler

Doc844,

In some ways, Ukraine has practically become a temporary Sixth Eye in the super tight FIVE EYES (US, UK, CA, AU, NZ), with privileged access to Ukraine related ELINT shared among them, together with anything relevant obtained from pro-Ukraine countries in the area, none of which want a visit from the Bear. Ukraine  is operating sophisticated comms and ISR provided by the US.  It's been reported the US has recon sat teams in Poland, so would imagine that Ukrainian authorities are getting some sort of help on that end, too, whether IMINT INTSUMs alone or reduced res imagery and IMINT INTSUMs as well I couldn't say. And there is now a tremendous amount of commercial military grade recon sat imagery available, too.  It helps greatly, too, that the weather has been clear, for it makes it very hard to hide anything of consequence from overhead detection, targeting and destruction. The US has provided this sort of intelligence support before, such as it did to the UK during the Falklands War, though UK is a FIVE EYES member, but remember, that's for ELINT. In the Falklands, the British maps dated back to the 1800s, so it was US IMINT, not just of the Falklands, but the sea around it and the Argentine naval and air bases, that was crucial.

Regards,

John Kettler

Saw this the other day, gave me a chuckle
 

Every single soldier account I've ever read where C-rats are mentioned always talks about how fantastic the canned peaches were and how prized they were by the troops.

While we're on good news, here's some for the rightly feared tractor drivers of Ukraine.



Regards,

John Kettler

sburke,

Sometimes I can recall a thing I read long ago, and other times I can't recall in which of, say, a dozen tabs I looked at within the last hour I saw something important. There are times when it's completely lost from memory in a horrifying 30 seconds. Brother George has seen just this happen to me with an extremely simple rule mechanic for a WW II skirmish game. For someone who used to be a walking threat encyclopedia with a cavernous highly accurate memory, this is immensely frustrating. Am trying to be responsive to suggestions, but they have to deal with the same memory problems, too! What I'm trying to do now is get the freshest info possible and/or provide supplementary material, such as the Stinger/Piorun comparison video.

Regards,

John Kettler

sburke,

How about being grateful your memory is in great shape and that you don't have to deal daily with a grab bag of deficits from a TBI sustained over 7.5 years ago?

Regards,

John Kettler

If this is true then excellent work 

 

Freyberg,

Many thanks for this, having taken considerable flak lately, even for things far beyond the usual attacks!

Regards,

John Kettler

How Army and Territorial defense in distant places receive or resupply the western weapon? Thanks to SOF and civil volunteers. If Russian threaten to attack convoys with a weapon, they should to destroy each car on the roads. 
 

Freyberg,

Many thanks for this, having taken considerable flak lately, even for things far beyond the usual attacks!

Regards,

John Kettler

Vet 0369,

Great story, but whatever you do, don't tell little children you ate reindeer!

In other news, the dreaded Ukrainian farmers have broadened their quarry, or so the meme would have us believe! Anyone know where to get a tractor beam?! Meanwhile, don't all those shades of blue look lovely together in the meme?



Regards,

John Kettler

Apparently, the Russians are using Krasnopol series precision munitions on targets near Kviv, and Russian authorities are censoring the weapon image in the first video and the data overlay on the drone video.
 




Try as I might, I can't get even a still to stay up of the Russian drone video showing a Krasnopol strike near Kviv.
@RALee85 · 20m The Russian MoD published a video likely taken by an Orlan-10 UAV reportedly showing Krasnopol laser-guided artillery strikes in Kyiv Oblast. https://t.me/mod_russia_en/144…                 0:18 23.2K views   Regards,

John. Kettler

  11:33 AM · Mar 12, 2022·Twitter Web App
    23.2K views     11:33 AM · Mar 12, 2022·Twitter Web App

Haiduk,

Full marks for pulling an analogy straight out of the mists of history that most western readers won't know and fewer still will understand!

Regards,

John Kettler

billblindc et al.,

Oops!  That below should've read company (+0 for total VDC strength in. the V force. Fortunately, I managed to get it right later on when. running the totals.

Am going to make a SWAG here. Presuming that everything V marked was part of the must stop at all costs special operation, my estimate is that we're looking at a true overall V force size of at least a battalion of infantry, with about a third being VDV. There were enough trucks of the type used for carrying troops to carry the balance of a battalion, and remember that BMD platoon in the second video, which means VDV AFVs alone amounted to a full company and a platoon, so platoon (+). 

Regards,

John Kettler