acrashb

The Cold War.

Another interesting drone in development.  This one can intercept aircraft, other drones, can be one-shot or re-usable, does VTOL and is fast.
Yikes.
 

Another interesting drone in development.  This one can intercept aircraft, other drones, can be one-shot or re-usable, does VTOL and is fast.
Yikes.
 

Another interesting drone in development.  This one can intercept aircraft, other drones, can be one-shot or re-usable, does VTOL and is fast.
Yikes.
 

There seems to be a series of strikes going on targeting Russian air defence assets in and above Crimea, possibly following on the damage done by the freak storm.
I've observed before here (and I am far from the only one) that retaking both banks of the Dnpr river mouth, preferably as far in as Oleshki Sands prior to a ceasefire seems quite strategically important to Ukraine, as it not only puts Kherson out of tube artillery range but somewhat lessens Russian ability to interdict shipping out of Odessa and Nikolaiv.

This terrain is infantry country; marshy (is it true the Ukes can also reflood a lot of this area if they want to?) and road poor. It also lies at the exposed far left end of the Russian front, and is hideously difficult to resupply and support.  As we see....

Any RU defence would need to rely heavily on air power. Sytematically degrading their AD network seems like a nice first step, especially if Ukraine fields F16s this coming spring.

I mean... the man was over 90 years old when Crimea happened. I suspect that most politicians who've consulted him for the last >30 years more or less just wanted a picture of them posing with a political A+++ celebrity rather than actual, relevant advice.
A lot of people seem to credit him with superhuman intelligence when basic medical science ought to caution us about the cognitive abilities of people >80 years old (at best). When a man reaches the age where odds are that he struggles with how the remote works, his abilities to keep abreast of and judge current political affairs are likely somewhat restricted to put it mildly.

As I know from twiterr hints of some people, connecting with SOF/GUR, GUR has been making offers in this direction. More, Transnistria has on own teritory largest ammo dump in Eastern Europe, with huge amount of artillery shells, which can be useful for us. But... Maya Sandu is very causion in this question. She afraids not only engagement with Transnistrian army, which much stronger, than Moldovian, but also pro-Russian revolt inside Moldova itself and economical consequenses from Russian side. Pro-Russian moods still very strong in Moldova. Except this probably Romania (NATO?) is strictly against, because this can involve it into the war and likely Article 5 will not be activated. 
Also Transnistrian ruling mafia clan created here suitable transition hub for contrabandists, having cover among officials in Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Romania and even EU. Transnistria is a hent that lays golden eggs, so for international illegal business and "grey import schemes" is no sense to cook a soup of this hent. 
One more reason, why Transnistria not finished yet - are possible hidden debates, about territorial belonging of this region after military intervention. Transnistrians have 3-5 citizenships each. Here is a coctail of Moldavians, Russians, Ukrainians, but most of them, especially oler generation identify itself as "Soviet people". Historically this land has changed many masters. Some people say "Ukraine doesn't need this Soviet reservation", other say "Ukrainians live there too and recently Transnistria was a part of Soviet Ukraine, but Stalin "gifted" it to Soviet Moldavia, it's logically if the border passes along Dnister, and because we will have losses, liberating this land we have a right to demand at least a part of this territory". So, Transnistrian question is very complicated and will not have quick solution. But if delivering of artillery shells will be foiled, I think Ukraine will return to this question again.

Alright folks, I need some sleep. This is gonna be my last post for the day. I leave you with some optimistic clips of the international community showing solidarity with Ukraine I found on Twitter today, but did not want to post individually.
 
 
 

So some war porn is instructive.  Again, slaughterbots.   Also, the drone operator has the personality of a cat playing with its food.  Good or bad is an exercise for the reader - and here's a really good thought experiment: when this is done autonomously, should the AI play with its food as well for purposes of Schrecklichkeit? 
He uses bull-in-a-china-shop tactics to get results, sometimes it works (often not).  On NATO, he was saying the obvious: most of the free world, including my country, free rides on the US taxpayer. I think his various threats were a way to scare other states into stepping up (at least I hope so).
Result: NATO defense spending as a share of GDP 2023 | Statista
Looks like the bluster did have the desired (or a desirable) effect.  Hard to be sure, but the chart is persuasive, as he was inaugurated in Jan 2017.
 

I meant Trump and similar voices in EU, not you.
And Donald and similar probably are the best advertisement for "spend money on defense and don't rely on US", just not necessarily the way they think they are.
Anyway, it's a bit offtopic.

We are not going to unpack DT presidency here.  I agree he did light a fire under defence spending.  Hell even Canada started to look worried (the whole aluminum thing did not help).  But let’s also not attribute it “fairness in collective defence”, or at least not all of it.  The US does gain a lot by NATO spending more, it is the largest arms market on the planet.  So more aggressive marketing than honest rebalancing or defence responsibilities.
%GDP is a terrible metric. It allows nations like Greece who basically have set up a camo workfare program to come out but they are not really able to contribute to collective deterrence. I also think that this whole argument is going to fade as Putin just secured NATO budgets for at least a decade.

Pal, sometime when I read your last posts I recall Denetor, who looked at palantir during a siege of Minas-Tirith %) Of course, we had very hard year and broken hopes, but I not shure that all go to complete bad scenario. What I fully agree - when Russia asks "Iran, give me 1000 Shakeds!", Iran answers "here you are!", when Russian asks N.Korea "Kim, give me 10000000 shells", N.Korea (China) answers "Here you are". But when Ukraine asks "Allies! Give me... Patriots, Leos, Abrams, shells" aliies answer "well, we will support you till the end! But... we need to gather Ramstein through two months, conduct discussions, discuss all pro- and contra... And memento escalation of course" 
And only small Denmark silently says "Psss... I heard you need arty? We have some cool stuff. Take all wahat we have. We anyway will not make war with Norway or Germany"

I'm no expert on your legal system but it seems you might be wrong here.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/trump-investigation-conviction.html
Legally, Mr. Trump would remain eligible to be president even if he were imprisoned. The Constitution says nothing to the contrary.
Fun fact, if he was elected while in prison:
On the federal charges only, he could also try to pardon himself — or to commute his sentence, leaving his conviction in place but ending his imprisonment.
 

I did 20+ years in the US Army. I went to Desert Storm and did 2 tours in Iraq. You have no idea at all about our professionalism and our capabilities. You know even less about Americans and what we will or will not fight for. Drop this stupid argument, and let's get back on topic.

...as you see it.  My point is that your viewpoint is skewed and not matching other viewpoints.  So you are either terrifyingly ahead of the curve here, or really biased based on personal context.  If we take the former (and I do not think for a moment this is the case), then we should be looking to cut Ukraine loose because it is going down faster than the Afghan Government in 2021.  Cut our loses and take the wins we already have.  The picture you paint is a fragile state under pressure which frankly we have been burned far too many times by in the last 30 years.  The fractures will start internally to Ukraine and will widen to the point that we won't even know who to support anymore.  Make you Russia's problem and drop a new Iron Curtain.  Pivot to the Pacific and try and figure out what to do there.

how quickly we forget.  Remember before the Russian invasion how the US intelligence community handled releasing info to box Russia in and make it clear that they really did intend to invade?  Not exactly the work of idiots.

With so many comments and reply’s regarding the illegal immigration issues, as far as I’m concerned, I think the angst her is directed primarily to “illegal immigrants”, not the legal ones.
That said, perhaps you all need to put a cork in it and stop distracting the rest of us from the main purpose of this forum, which is to discuss the illegal war of Russia in Ukraine.

1) if you're referring to The Donald, unless the Democrats field a viable candidate pretty soon, The Donald will be the 47th President of the United States.  So whatever preparations you deem necessary, I'd start them now...
2) It truly is.  Sweeping statements like "the Plague of Justinian hastened the end of the Roman Empire" sweep enormous suffering to the side.  In the immortal words of Heinlein, talking about ordinary people, "Perhaps their lives have no cosmic significance, but they have feelings. They can hurt."
3) I had not intended to take advancement in social and physical technologies for granted - "past performance is no guarantee of future results" - these advancements and the relatively recent radical upturn in their pace are not an accident.  I just wanted to take some wind out of the doomsayer's sails, because the only sure way to lose is to give up - it is the sufficient condition.  Anyway, Human Progress is a sure antidote to the drumbeat of negativity from legacy media.

Regarding the future, given that we appear to be the only sentient life in at least the Milky Way, a) we may be about to be challenged by The Great Filter and b) it is important both to us (for obvious reasons) and everything else (because sentience gives meaning to the universe) that we overcome it.
One of the clear steps is avoiding nuclear escalation due to the Russo-Ukraine war (see how cunningly I brought this back on-topic?), and as the_capt often says, this isn't a given, even in peacetime ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls ). 

There, that is the belly fire we need.  

I gotta be honest. I am not sure if the US Empire as a grand social experiment is in an irretrievable decline or we are simply suffering some transient heartburn, like that last time in 1861.  I love the confidence but as an outsider I can see some deep flaws and rot in this whole thing that makes me nervous.  I am not sure "well it was worse before" is good enough for 2023, it sure was not good enough back then.
There seems to be two Americas- the Dream that points to global stability and cooperation, hope for us all.  And the Nightmare that sees the baggage and inequality drag it all down.  These are problems that I am not sure democracy can solve, in fact in some ways it is making it worse.
This war is another example.  As the Leader of the Free World, the US should be all over this thing.  This is a great historic moment to shine.  What do we get?  Weird mixed messages and dysfunction, that is making everyone nervous. 
So yes, there is a choice to be made. Nations and power blocks are already checking exits.  It is called Strategic Competition, not Strategic "Well-of-course-USA".  We need an "In It to Win It" vibe but honestly are not feeling it.  

Ugh, c'mon be a little bit self aware here. What can you do?  What should you do?  LEAD!!  
The one thing that drives me crazy about Americans is this weird sense of "well of course".  Like it is so obvious. And then you get hurt when other people go "nope".  Nicest, most powerful...and sometimes dumbest Empire in history.

i recommend that ukraine hire terry gilliam to get on that right away.
 
cheers,
rob

With all the evil deeds committed by Putin that we talk about here, it is important to mention good deeds as well.
A Singaporean couple built 500 homes on the Ukrainian frontlines as the war raged around them. Here's how they did it. (businessinsider.com)
 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-combat-medics-life-saving-breakthroughs/32695540.html

 
 
 

So, natural right of nation to defend own culture and don't turn into "multicultural Babylon" to be gradually "swallowed" by newcomers is a sign of nazism? As for me this is a sign of nation health. 
You have wrong opinion about Ukrainians, I should say. We never will greeting hordes of non-european culture migrants here. Some Muslim communities live here historically, but they are minor, and they are more "secular Muslims", so they don't make problems for us