Mattias

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 
Looking into the abyss and all that… 

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 
Looking into the abyss and all that… 

No significant updates yet. But there is interesting post
 
It describes possible UKR intent for the whole Izum offensive operation:

UKR capture/block Kupyanks UKR Advance from Dolyna area toward Oskil cutting several roads from Izum UKR destroy few bridges And the whole RU Izum grouping is in zh*pa.  

True, Lenin was not perfect yurodivy (Rasputin was much more) but his hagiography and folk memory nonetheless retained several crucial characteristics. He was a figure from outside rotten and decaying social order that managed to destroy and renew it, bringing new, fresh sacrality of authority- which is one of the functions of Trickster/God's Fool figure (being outsider/destroyer/creator of widely accepted meanings and power relations). Since he can create order, he is not bounded by existing one, including common morallity; unlike settled priesthood that belongs to sinfull world, adored with its burdens, jewelery and subservient to rulers, yurodivy can move between Outside and Inside. Now, one of qualities of Lenin is that he also rejected all material pleasures like richness, food, women etc. (not exactly true of course, but in folk memory- "Lenin at least was modest and never steal" still ring with Soviet population up to 2000's); was persecuted and haunted, played "dressing games" to outwitt his opressors; was forced to living in exile for long time (desert caves/wild woods= cheap living quarters in Zurich, doesn't matter) where he finally reached an Enlightment. He preached the whole time. Then he arrived triumphally - in April 1917 was his Parousia; he left a train at Petrogrod, after which he started his reign (well, almost- but Revolution for such a figure is piece of cake, especially against morally bankrupted power).
From that point it more follows the story of Priest King/Triumphal Prophet rather than God's Fool, i.e. charismatic, selfless servant of total cause. And marxism-leninsm was indeed TOTAL...oh boy, it was total at every possible level- logical, historical, eschatological. Its followers strive to create New Man and finish History. It had its own concept of time, dedicated priests, scripture, cathedrals, highly developed secret language, rites of passage, inquisition etc. It purged infidels, opportunists and all kinds of "undecent" people harder than any other ideology or religion for a long time. And Lenin was its Prophet. After his noble death from overwork (in reality it could be syphilis) he was mummified, put on display just next to Kremlin walls so future generations could still enjoy his sacred presence...And renewed power order, now led by acolyte Stalin (who by a twist of fate was deeply spiritual wannabe priest in his youth) could bath in his everlasting glory and follow his noble path to bright future.
Treating him (often mockerly) as religious figure and comparisions of Lenin to Christ, Mahommet,Chomeini, Savanarolla etc. are rather common for many Russian intellectuals; there were even some intersting s-f/fantasy books with this topic.
Generally figures of Holy Man of different iterations (yurodivy/prophet/prest king), bringer of esoteric Truth that will enlight rotten and doomed world (= renew socio-political order) are still very popular in Russian Orthodox hagiography and even secular popculture today; Russian movies, books and even games are full of such personas (note it resonates very well with official ideology of new Russian state- russkiy mir should be kingdom of spirituality and true meaning as against western materialism; up to a certain point, of course). I can bet many Russian nationalists for example still adore and mimic them, if only on esthetic levels:
 

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.
I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 
Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.
I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 
Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.
I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 
Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.
I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 
Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.
I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 
Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

My reflection here does not really effect your line of argument but I think it could be important to highlight, as this very moment in time and space is one which we constantly return to.
I would argue that the capitalists and right-wing politicians did not support Hitler because the wanted something, as much as they feared loosing something. At the time there was a strongly felt fear of a leftist, russian style, revolution and since the right did not want to cooperate with even liberal/moderat left-wing political forces, the Nazis provided an alternative with the muscle mass able to oppose “the proletariat”. The fact that the nazis themselves had stoked much of the social tension they were now asked to quench, is just par of the course for fascist development. 
 
Robert O. Paxton does a great jobb illuminating these processes in his book the Anatomy of Fascism. A text that is painfully relevant in todays political climate.

There is one interesting development under RU separatism tag.
This is Yevgeny Roizman

You probably have heard something about him. He can be considered an opposition politician and liberal. But he is not a classical RU liberal aka Moscow/Petersburg soft type. He is a street type politician. Tough sort of liberal from tough sort of liberal Ural city. He is famous for his fight against drug abuser and the drug mafia in Yekaterinburg in late 90s. There were rumors (I did not dig deeper as I was not interested in RU local stuff) that they used physical force fighting narcs and healing drug users. Given the tough region and dirty ways of narcs I believe it is true. However, it is not important.
What is important is that he is well known and popular in Yekaterinburg (a region with a strong separatist mood). And he is an outspoken critic of war. He was supposed to get jailed a long time ago but due to his popularity it was a difficult case for the Kremlin. But a couple of days ago his time has come:
As Yevgeny Roizman was being led out of his flat by police this morning, a waiting journalist asked him why he was being charged. "Just for one phrase," said Mr Roizman, 59, "'The invasion of Ukraine.'" He has had a serious criminal case opened against him for "discrediting the Russian armed forces".
Nesmyan aka civilian Girkin believes that Kremlin planned to create conflict between locals and local authorities to drive the edge between them forcing authorities closer to Kremlin.
But - and it is important for us - something went wrong on the part of the local authorities. He was supposed to be transferred to Moscow. Yet, according to claims the governor fought Moscow and won. Roizman was left at Yekaterinburg. He had trial with local judges who instead of tough measures assigned just some inconvenient ones and freed him immediately. Compare that with Gorinov who got 7 years in Moscow. 
In my humble opinion it is the first noticeable separatist crack in an otherwise strong RU pressure cooker.

Ya, not so much.  They may mitigate but they are not going to "fix" anything anytime soon.  
First off APS does nothing to help against PGM such as SMART (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMArt_155) , DPICM nor do we know how they manage top down attack against thing such as Javelin and self-loitering munitions.  To simply go with "a-ha we have APS, mischief managed!" is to go forward blindly as technology to kill big steel hot things is accelerate well past the technology to stop it.  To my eye APS is the ERA of the 80's..neat idea that took about 10-mins to figure out how to beat.  And we have not even scratched the surface of UGVs - imagine a minefield with legs.
Second, APS does not solve for the entire system, it protects the front end of it and unless you mount it on every tank, AFV, artillery piece and engineer vehicle, it won't even do that.  Oh wait, it gets worse.  You need APS on your entire logistical and C4ISR chain as well - or you risk well protected F ech out of gas, ammo and spare parts pretty quick, something else the Russian demonstrated very well. 
Third APS does zero for the ISR problem, it might make it worse.  A bunch of sensors and boxes is going to raise vehicle profiles, not shrink them.
So I do not think we are forgetting about APS, we are simply recognizing that it will be a partial mitigation best.   The whole "counter/Shield" technology boom is coming but we have a trend of advancing technology to kill each other faster than to counter it.

I like the thinking, let's keep that up, however - there are issues
Ok, so let's unpack this a bit .
Area.  So a mechanized combat team in the advance over open country has up to a 2km frontage - giver or take.  We then need to extend that bubble to at least 8km, so double the range of the ATGM, so that the next tactical bound is secured, or at least scanned, before the mech force gets there.  So adding that all up we are talking an op box of about 16 sq kms, or in more tactical terms: 16,000,000 sq ms.  Why sq ms?  Well a 2-man ATGM team such as Javelin, takes up about 4 sq m (and I am being generous - but maybe they have quad or buggy for quick get away).  So the game here is to try and spot two humans, with little or zero vehicles that take up a 4 sq m area in an overall area of 16 million sq ms...and sustain it.
Finding.  Finding two humans in cover on the a conventional battlefield is still the third hardest ISR challenge that exists.  Even with TI, which is not designed to find people it is designed to find vehicles, is going to be severely challenged in doing this.  The average human being runs at 36 and change degrees C, which is only about 10 degrees hotter than ambient air in summer in temperate regions.  Then they wear clothes, modern uniforms actually are designed for some of this (https://www.innovationintextiles.com/protective/hohenstein-develops-textiles-for-screening-against-ir-radiation-for-use-in-military-uniforms/).  Next they are trained to stay under tree canopy, or dig into the ground, tall grass etc.  So this is not like those wands at the airport that are going to squawk when they find your keys.  A number of 500m was tossed around for a Tac UAV to be able to spot a human with TI, but I seriously doubt it if that human is half decently trained and equipped.  UAVs are the best bet, but it will not be easy by any stretch.  Those humans on the ATGM-side do not have the same problem as mech is huge, hot and loud - we can see them from space-based now - so this is not an advantageous exercise for the attacker from the get go...tale as old as time. 
Fixing.  The next major problem with the proposal is the role of SF "infiltration" as the lead edge of this screen.  I like where this is going, very hybrid, however: 1) that is a lot of "SF" - in reality decently trained light infantry would fill this role - to cover off all that ground, even doing "spot" close recce.  They are also going to take casualties so they will need medivac and support, Sustaining this is not small but doable.  2) The entire mech force can now move at the speed of "SF Infiltration" which is damned slow compared to mech advances - think walking speed.  So now a mech force which is designed to punch holes and advance quickly to an enemies rear areas to bring the righteous hand of gawd almighty to REMFs is crawling behind light infantry infiltration...kinda defeats the point of mech in the first place.
Finishing.  One big piece missing from the diagrams is indirect fires.   The logic of spotting small ATGM teams and then dropping the sky on them - rinse and repeat, makes sense even if it is at a human crawl.  However, that nasty indirect fire points in two directions.  The logistics train for a 2 man ATGM team hiding on 4 sq ms is pretty modest - like bag of trail mix and some toilet paper, modest.  The logistical train for this proposed hybrid advance mech model is pretty significant, and will also be seen from space.  So unless that SF infiltration extends out past artillery range, the tail of this mech force, the mech force itself, and with HIMARs, the parking garage said mech force was hiding in before it moved out, are going to get lit up and blown all to hell before the ATGM teams stop bird watching and start shooting. 
So we are back at Fog Eating Snow.
Why bring the mech force along at all?  In fact until you completely break an enemy line past the artillery support distance, mech forces would be held back until pre-conditions are met, namely - degrade enemy ISR, degrade indirect fires, collapse logistical system and crack the line.  This is firepower-attrition-to-manoeuvre, not the other way around which is in all our doctrine - [although honestly, I have to ask myself when have we ever actually done that?  We always lead with an air campaign that makes the Valkyries look like a chicken dance.] 
Anyway, SF infiltration, yes...slow but proven one of the few real ways to advance in this war.  Infiltration with all sorts of ISR to find, and then isolate any heavier force concentration - going to be a lot of screening battles, but their sneaky peeky ATGM teams do not matter...cause we didn't bring any "Ts" during this phase.  Instead of WW1 levels of dumb massed fires, back up that infiltration with precision fires to shtomp anything that they can find with accuracy - rinse and repeat, and continue to support with deep strike on anything that even looks high value - particularly C4ISR, EW, Logistics and throw in an airfield or two for the sunbathers.
You project this as a series of tactical undecidings of their operational integrity, until their system starts to collapse.  Here breadth is likely more important than speed.  You project corrosive force along their entire operational system, and when they buckle...then you send in the mech/armor to do the deep stabby work, before they can re-establish a defence line, tempo here will still matter...I think.
It is a theory, at least.  I have no idea if it would work - and it is not without problems of its own.

I think the big thing that needs to be acknowledged is that we now see a proven and distinct lack of *capability* in the GRU, FSB, Russian army and state in general now. This isn't a regime that's firing on all cylinders and pursuing subtle strategies. It misunderstood its enemies, it misunderstood its own abilities and it misjudged pretty much everything related to the most important action taken by a Russian state since the USSR's dissolution. 
It's *our* perception of them that fuels the idea that some deeply thought through conspiracy is afoot. 

Mine is. Especially when it comes to joint military exercises with an aggressive country that just invaded another country and is bombing, killing, raping and torturing it's civilians.

More so compared to that orange f'n blathering, BS spitting pumpkin that wants to get back in again. Surely my friends down south of me are not that dumb again? Good God I hope they aren't.🥺
Sorry, back to what really matters in the thread, Ukraine.

Bakhmut map time. I am playing with Google Earth now. So, I created two variants, tell me what is more convenient please. 
Usual type 
 
Map with highlighted areas

Discussion (obviously it is my humble opinion of armchair amateur):
Despite much hype RU push to Bakhmut is weak - they do not have enough forces for left hook to bypass the heaviest UKR defenses using the southern road from Pokrovske. (If they pushed only using Southern road, they would leave Soledar group flank open) The current push is unwise - they have to fight through the most difficult urban terrain with plants and industrial zone on the flank. They are still fighting in Pisky and Bakhmut is not Pisky. Unless they want to bleed to death wagnerites, I do not believe it is their main assault. Most probably they want to fix UKR defenders here and prevent them from reinforcing Soledar (North hook) or Zaitseve (South hook) Obviously Main UKR defenses are in Western part behind river. So, neither capture of eastern industrial zone or even Zabahmutske district is dangerous for UKR defenses.  Because both Bakhmut and Soledar are very strong positions I believe we need to worry only about left (southern) hook and specifically Vershyna-Zaitseve direction as the most easiest and fastest route to cut Bakhmut from supply.

Agent Murz reports about lack ERA issue.
It is big, so I translated the most relevant part. It is an explanation why RU tanks often lack ER. Summary - ERA is explosive stuff that needs to be stored in secure proper conditions. For RU army tanks commanders getting them from storage and putting them on tanks in timely manner is huge issue.
 

I am putting here preliminary notes about RU Nats response because it looks like they are writing like mad. I am reading from morning and it is already 193 unread posts while usually it is about 60-80. However so far they are writing about anything else. Preliminary Summary:
They are active but eerily quiet about strike. They did saw maps and analysis but so far give minimal comments. They do not comprehend military implications. Their response is we can handle it. However subjectively I feel a fracture in RU Nats morale.  While they do not fear military ramifications it looks like they are extremely nervous at other consequences. They are RU Nats. Missile Terror strikes for them is a norm but only when they do it. UKR demonstrated they can do it as well. Imagine these missiles hitting RU cities. You need also understand that RU love terror strikes because they project their own public vulnerability to others. It is RU people that are weak to terror strikes. RU Nats are facing the real possibility of explaining to RU people why they have to suffer from terror just to fulfill RU Nats fantasies. Thats extremely difficult to do. Please keep in mind that this is a preliminary report. Will confirm when I am out of sewers.

So I totally get the impulse to unpack this attack, especially from a forum of - let's just say - "detail orientated" wargamers.  Kudos to those that continue to Zapruder this thing, and I am sure in time the details of how the UA pulled this off will come out (my bet is missile strike, but I would not rule out one helluva SOF black bag job - could be both in reality; complex attack).
But for all the lurkers out there I would recommend we all keep an eye on the follow-on impacts of this strike on a strategic and political level.  We bounced around this a few pages back but here are some thoughts:
- All war is communication and that is a complex concept of 'the message', 'the means to send the message', and 'the method of transmission'.  Every piece of those components in themselves create information that is interpreted in multiple dimensions.  For example Ukraine said things thru this attack that create certainty and uncertainty - in case the second one is the most powerful:
Ukraine stated, with certainty, that they can hit a high value target with extreme precision at 225km (at least) behind Russian lines.  I say 'extreme precision' because it appears they did more damage with the secondaries than the initial strikes, and that takes a very high level of precision in time and space.  This was not lobbing a missile at a target, they hit exactly where they needed to in order to create a very high profile "boom".  That is communicating 'capability' that I am pretty sure the Russians were sure they understood, right up until yesterday afternoon - based on the scrambling narratives in the Russian info sphere. Ukraine has clearly communicated intent.  If they wanted to hurt Russian airpower, they would have cratered the runway and then FASCAM'd the thing...but this was not about airpower.  They were signaling that they are coming for Crimea, and the Russians were not safe...anywhere.  This will likely create a lot of uncertainty in Russian thinking, as the pretty much figured they had Ukraine pinned down in the Donbas in a grinding war.  We talked about it before but this is strategic manoeuvre thru strike.  The kind of thing the US does by hitting Afghanistan from the other side of the world back on 2001 (https://www.airforcemag.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2016/December 2016/1216hours.pdf).  This was a high profile attack that both demonstrated and signaled intent and resolve in a very visible manner - that is certainty creating uncertainty in their enemy. I don't care how constipated the Russian political machine is, and it is already trying to spin this in crazy directions to blunt the message - they get that much.  No way to dodge it, this is very bad news for the Russians.  They have been relying on the narrative of "hopeless cause": Russian has 'escalation dominance', it can create a never-ending 'stalemate', it can and will fight forever...there is no way Ukraine can win: so stop spending your money in a pre-recession...look we even have Steven Segal!  This is clearly playing on the western psyche and our recent scars from places like Afghanistan. Ukraine just demonstrated that they can still hit a strategic target, with breathtaking precision, at the time and place of their choosing.  That directly attacks the Russian narrative.   Militarily, this type of attack creates enormous uncertainty.  The fact we have people on vacation on a beach watching this happen, and then blow it up all over social media, is a clear indication that Russia considered this area outside the warzone.  You can ignore or sidestep "industrial accidents" and the rash of weird fires we saw back in Mar-Feb, you can ignore HIMARs that hit your logistical system within 70-100kms.  You cannot ignore a strategic strike, that just happened in front of the entire world, at over twice that range.  The Russian military now needs to not only figure out how to secure itself at ranges it thought safe, it has to figure out how to defend Russian certainty, which just got seriously mauled. So what?  Well the first reaction will be "it was a lucky one off", and "this is war, these things happen".  However, information is funny with humans, we cannot un-think it.  As a minimum, Russian has to re-think the battlespace, significantly.  That is a lot of assumptions that just cracked in military planning - the fact that they did not see it coming in time to interdict is the biggest one.  Russians may try to ignore it, but I am betting western ISR is picking up a lot of scrambling going on in the Russian rear areas right now.  Again, this is more friction being imposed via uncertainty.  And that uncertainty will spread like a virus.  All those beach goers will scramble back home with it.  The Russian reaction will be key to determining just how badly this strike hurt them. 
Now the war is not over.  This was not positively decisive, at least not yet.  The UA will have to follow up with more of these, humans are also able to ignore reality - which is paradoxical I know.  More of these strikes will build up pressure until something gives.  But for the west, this is a clear demonstration that our proxy is not only still in this thing, it demonstrates they are getting better at it.  Better they are emulating warfare we recognize - high precision deep strikes on clear military targets with almost zero collateral civilian casualties.  Nice, clean and very western - worth investing more into.
I have heard at some pretty high levels the idea that "Russia has shifted this war into one that favors them"...well strikes like these send the message that Ukraine is shifting it back.  May have been a 'one-off' or a lucky day; however, it is going to cause the Russians a lot of hot and bother to figure that all out...and in a war, that is good communication.

To see Anzio and Sothampton dock with such heart rending clarity, yet fail so miserably when children and partners now, again, face the same bottomless agony. 
 
Sic transit gloria mundi…
 
 

Thanks as always for your intelligent and enlightening posts, Grigb...
I just had to add this (perhaps you can find the original Russian?)
The ruling classes have in their hands the army, money, the schools, the churches, and the press. In the schools, they kindle patriotism in the children by means of histories describing their own people as the best of all peoples and always in the right. Among adults they kindle it by spectacles, jubilees, monuments, and by a lying patriotic press. Above all, they inflame patriotism in this way: perpetrating every kind of harshness and injustice against other nations, they provoke in them enmity towards their own people, and then in turn exploit that enmity to embitter their people against the foreigner.
      ~ Leo Tolstoy, Patriotism and Government, 1900.
So far have we come.

For more on that. I sincerely hope you have all seen these, part 1 and 2. Much of the action takes place around Pisky. Very grim and sobering stuff.
 
 

For more on that. I sincerely hope you have all seen these, part 1 and 2. Much of the action takes place around Pisky. Very grim and sobering stuff.
 
 

For more on that. I sincerely hope you have all seen these, part 1 and 2. Much of the action takes place around Pisky. Very grim and sobering stuff.