The_MonkeyKing

and US aid is back on track for now

Situation developing

I think if Ukrainians get to choose what the limited funds are used for, Abrams is not on that list

Seems the attack was not as successful as initially stated

The sum was 500 million euros... Finland made the same investment last year to our own plants alone

Yeah, Germany has been doing were well on the ground for the last year or so. Still PR and communication disaster.

Especially these were interesting:

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/30664/ukraine-battlefield-dynamics-manpower-fortifications-and-ammunition/ My notes: They made another trip to UKR front lines. They are doing these around every 3months. Ukraine's Challenges: Ukraine faces a triple threat with manpower, fortifications, and ammunition shortages. Mobilization remains stalled at political level, hindering long-term force generation. This decision also has a long lead time to effects on the battlefield Last year we saw you cannot make brigades in couple of months Fortifications are being worked on now, but only lately. Ammunition depends on external factors like US aid and Europe commitment drones are going to help to bridge the gap to an extent. These problems are the same as last trip three months ago. Ukraine leadership changes are still an unknown. Generally seems the leadership is on the same page about the main challenges as the front line troops The war is at an intersection. Many things can go either way, US support, UKR mobilization... Depending on these the war can change radically. Even a Harkiv-style collapse for the Ukrainians is not out of the question on the "bad timelines". Overly extended summer offensive and pointless commitment of reserves to those attacks have depleted Ukraine Especially Ukrainian infantry has been under extreme strain, battalion might be in OK condition but only have a couple of platoons of fully mission-capable infantry. Unlikely to see any strategic level offensives from the Ukrainians in 2024 Some Russian challenges: Russian Force Quality: While a concern in 2023, Russia has demonstrated a capacity to sustain casualties and maintain a baseline level of force quality. This has been shown in practice during the summers stubborn defense and the bloody assaults we are now seeing. UKR has reported increased discipline and executions by the RU Manpower: So far Russia has been able to compensate for it casualties with recruitment. This has been surprisingly successful. Several 100k last year and now in the tens of thousands a month. Unkown how long Russia can keep up. If they cannot a new mobilization wave is going to be required. Equipment availability: Main limiting factor for the Russians at this moment. Ukraine's Evolving Tactics: Shortage of Soviet-era AA ammunition is a major concern. and now also western ammunition UKR is having increasing success with small mobile AA defenses (MANPADS, AAA, HMG) supported by well integrated sensors and coordination. This is against RU cruise missiles and suicide drones. Especially in parts of the front UKR is developing integration of assets, intelligence and troops to a whole new level. Big steps compared to three months ago Drone war moving more towards competition in quality and integration rather than quantity. Ukraine Battlefield Dynamics Manpower, Fortifications, and Ammunition.mp3

Battlefront has a pretty unique way of making many of its lets say "content packs". This has some unique properties, one of them is extreme variance in schedules and also very high tolerance for variances in schedule.

Yeah, I agree. Even with refurbishments the quality problem is not yet materializing on lets say "to a critical" extent. T-80BV and T-72 2000's models keep coming. By many estimates (including "perun"), the cases of T-55 and T-62 have been because of totally different production, warehouse and ammo "pipelines" for these being fast and available. We shall see when Russia starts choking here. Next year by most estimates. https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1

And that is why I was very careful not to use world "new". In past posts I have quoted that article extensively. For the end result now and this year, doesn't matter whether the equipment is "refurbished". Then when we zoom out to strategic level and long term planning it does matter because the stockpiles are going to run dry in the coming years.

Yeah, but also record deliveries of equipment. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024 "This has led to significant increases in production output. For example, Russia is delivering approximately 1,500 tanks to its forces per year along with approximately 3,000 armoured fighting vehicles of various types." Generally expected to match the loss rates this year.

Yeah! Here is the vid lataus.mp4

Well, if the strike went well we will soon see the full footage from the Ukrainians. If past trends continue

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1763116800537997387.html "So Russia recently released footage of the targeting of Ukrainian Cars across the border aswell as Lancet, Sahed and Tornado-S footage. I have cut it to take out the gore footage and only show the Lancet and other hits. Here is the thread So lets start: AS-90(known) 2S1 Gvozdika Damaged Training Ground Hit T-64BV Damaged Group of T-72 Barely Damaged AN/TPQ-50 Destroyed BREM-1 ARV Destroyed BMP-1 Damaged T-64 Destroyed T-64 Damaged Bradley? Destroyed Unknown Vehicle Destroyed Leopard 2A6? Hit Buk-M1/M2 Destroyed BTR-80? Damaged? Unknown SAM Destroyed(claimed patriot) BMP-1 Damaged BM-27 Uragan/Bureviy Destroyed Msta-B Howitzer Damaged Leopard 2A5(known) Destroyed Destruction of a Ukrainian RM-70 Vampire MLRS Sahed and Iskander-M strikes on Infrastructure and Targets."