Number Crunching (Mathematicians?)

[MeatEtr]

Ok, I'll spare the details and get right to it.

8 separate rolls all fall into the 1-19 range out of 100. What are the odds of that?

Anybody know of any number crunching sites out there? Where all you gotta do is plug in the numbers and it spits out the results for you. Since I don't know how to use the calculator for this.

[JonS]

*very* roughly:

.2 * .2 * .2 * .2 * .2 * .2 * .2 * .2 = ?

(alternately 0.2^8 = ?)

[Sergei]

Isn't that just 0.19^8? ie. 0,0000016983563041 or 1.7 out of million.

edit: JonS got there faster. But my answer is 0.01^8 more accurate.

[MeatEtr]

Nice, and in less than 20 mins from when I posted. Although 1.7 million is much higher than I thought it would be. But then again I was pretty much clueless and haven't done this stuff in well over a decade.

Thank you!

[dieseltaylor]

Also seems wrong.

[dieseltaylor]

It has to be remembered that the desired outcome can occur the first time you try it, and the tenth turn. That might imply that it is now unlikely to happen for the next 3.4 million throws. But that in itself is also unlikely. *

I would of course check the die. : )

* However in another universe someone is vainly trying to roll under 20 [insert spooky music]

[Stalins Organ]

the answer is...it depends.

Were they all in sequence? Were there ONLY 8 rolls, or were there more that were not reported? How many other rolls have ever been made using the same system?

[Affentitten]

More importantly, what does this make your randomly generated dungeon look like?

[JonS]

small repetitions of large things have curious results

[Michael Emrys]

This thread reminds me of something I started saying several years ago: "In this universe, unlikely things happen all the time."

Michael

[costard]

This thread reminds me of something I started saying several years ago: "In this universe, unlikely things happen all the time."

Michael

Well yes, but likely things happen more often.:eek:

[Michael Emrys]

Well yes, but likely things happen more often.:eek:

Well now, let's think about that a moment. The reason so many unlikely things happen all the time is that so vastly many more things that we can conceive of are unlikely. If only a relatively few things are likely, then by number they may not be popping off quite as often. On the other hand, this only holds if likely things are finite in number. If both turn out to be infinite, than the question is meaningless. If only the unlikely things are infinite, then the answer is trivial.

Whether either or both can be demonstrated as infinite is an exercise left to the student.

Michael

[Erik Springelkamp]

All events are equally unlikely, but there can be a lot of possible events that yield the same result effectively.

[dieseltaylor]

I am glad we sorted that out then.

[costard]

Well now, let's think about that a moment. The reason so many unlikely things happen all the time is that so vastly many more things that we can conceive of are unlikely. If only a relatively few things are likely, then by number they may not be popping off quite as often. On the other hand, this only holds if likely things are finite in number. If both turn out to be infinite, than the question is meaningless. If only the unlikely things are infinite, then the answer is trivial.

Whether either or both can be demonstrated as infinite is an exercise left to the student.

Michael

Ah, but not all infinities are created equal.

I'd argue that likely events are more common than unlikely events. Therefore, if both unlikely and unlikely events are infinite in number, the infinity of likely events is larger than the infinity of unlikely events. It turns out that we have a taxonomy of infinities - aleph null is smaller than aleph one, is smaller than aleph two,...

[Stalins Organ]

Ah, but not all infinities are created equal.

No, but they tend to end up that way.......

[Michael Emrys]

No, but they tend to end up that way.......

LOL! Oh well played, sir!

Michael

[Affentitten]

Get thee to Bulgaria

[mididoctors]

This thread reminds me of something I started saying several years ago: "In this universe, unlikely things happen all the time."

Michael

"million to one chances happen nine times out of ten"

paraphrase Douglas Adams or sumone similar

[gunnergoz]

So have you guys figured out my next lotto numbers yet?

[mididoctors]

So have you guys figured out my next lotto numbers yet?

according to Derren brown you get 24 people to guess and then average their scores.....

not a camera trick.... yeah right

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kMIzR6GNAXw&feature=related

FAIL

[gunnergoz]

So have you guys lined up my 24 people yet? :D

[Stalins Organ]

"million to one chances happen nine times out of ten"

paraphrase Douglas Adams or sumone similar

Terry Pratchett, discworld series - I forget which book - I think it might be the one where the librarian becomes an Orang Utan....oook!

from some wiki or other:

Traditionally, one has to say "it's a million-to-one chance, but it might just work!" to invoke this rule. It also has to be exactly a million to one - none of this fiddly "995,351 to 1" business, or whatever other number you might end up with. So while the list of things that people have accomplished with million to one chances is quite impressive, the list of things they have failed to accomplish with odds a few percentage points off in either direction is probably a lot longer and involves a lot more fatalities.

[MeatEtr]

My head hurts!

[dieseltaylor]

If you tie a piece of string round the earth's surface on the equator, and then place a second piece of string round the earth a metre above ground level, how much longer is the second piece of string than the first?