Normandy Game

[Michael Emrys]

If Hitler decided to wait a year and plan the invasion of the Soviet Union for 1942 instead of 1941...

Problem with waiting until '42 is that the USSR was hastily rearming and reorganizing the army after the fiasco in Finland. In 1942 Hitler might have found the Soviets coming after him!

Michael

[Michael Emrys]

For that matter, he could have really confused things by declaring war on Japan in '41!

It confuses me. What would he have to gain by that?

Michael

[ASL Veteran]

Problem with waiting until '42 is that the USSR was hastily rearming and reorganizing the army after the fiasco in Finland. In 1942 Hitler might have found the Soviets coming after him!

Michael

So you say Hitler would attack the Soviets in 1942 anyway even if he was already at war with the US. That, or they would attack each other. I know that you are really saying that he wouldn't have waited until 1942 and the only possibility is an attack in 1941, but my premise is that he did wait until 1942 so you aren't really addressing the scenario I outlined. There really is no reason why he couldn't have waited and there are plenty of reasons why he would have. The Balkans campaign took time away from the Soviet campaign and put wear and tear on the German armored forces just prior to the invasion so it may have been a good thing to spend extra time refitting after the Balkans campaign rather than invading the Soviet Union right away. I don't know why the Soviet army would have performed any better in an initial attack in 1942 than they did in 1941 - their officer corps wouldn't have suddenly come back from the dead in that extra year.

[ASL Veteran]

It confuses me. What would he have to gain by that?

Michael

Since Japan and the Soviet Union were antagonistic, in theory Hitler could have gained some diplomatic points with Stalin if he did. After all, if Hitler hadn't invaded the Soviet Union before Pearl Harbor he would still have had a non aggression pact with Stalin at the time of the attack. Yeah, it's a bit of a stretch but there it is. I wonder what FDR would have done in that case!

[JonS]

Thank you captain obvious. I did mention FTW, didn't I?

Well, sure, but perhaps you were a bit subtle. Why not just invoke the BAC Lightning, or the Harrier?

[Michael Emrys]

...you aren't really addressing the scenario I outlined.

That's because your scenario is so far counter-factual that you might as well ask what would have happened if little green men had descended in a fleet of flying saucers and declared a world government. Gee, I don't know the answer to that one either. I guess things would be different, huh?

Michael

[Michael Emrys]

Since Japan and the Soviet Union were antagonistic, in theory Hitler could have gained some diplomatic points with Stalin if he did.

Hitler didn't need any diplomatic points with Stalin. The Soviets were already scrambling to do everything possible diplomatically to avoid war with Germany. Hitler had decided on war and there wasn't any realistic chance that any concession the Soviets would be able to make would change that.

So the situation is that by the autumn of 1940, Hitler has made up his mind to go to war with the USSR. What could possibly have changed his mind? That's the question you need to focus on. If there were some way to convince him that the Soviet state was not nearly so fragile as he imagined it was, maybe that would have convinced him. But how do you do that? Take him on a ten year tour of the country to show him the people, their resilience and intelligence, the factories and their output? Would that have changed his mind? Or would he have just sneered and only seen the things that confirmed him in his beliefs?

Michael

[Cambronne]

Why? The RN would only need to come out after dark when the Luftwaffe was useless. As stated by another poster, the RN had plenty of destroyers and smaller attack craft on hand, and those would be capable of handling the barges the German troops were being hauled in.

All this and more was thoroughly hashed out in the soc.history.war.world-war-ii newsgroup two or three years ago. A google search should turn it up.

Michael

firstly,the RN would have attacked the channel by night while the Germans would have crossed it by day.Secondly,the germans would have close guarded their invasion fleet with cruisers and Bismark and Tirpitz battleships. So while the Luftwaffe was dealing with the big ships of the Royal Navy,the small boats and destroyers which escaped the aerial attacks were easy mark for the German navy. I am not saying that this would have happened that way but it could have happened. So the afirmation that there was no chance for the Germans to land on the island seems a little exaggerated.

[JonS]

firstly,the RN would have attacked the channel by night while the Germans would have crossed it by day.Secondly,the germans would have close guarded their invasion fleet with cruisers and Bismark and Tirpitz battleships. So while the Luftwaffe was dealing with the big ships of the Royal Navy,the small boats and destroyers which escaped the aerial attacks were easy mark for the German navy. I am not saying that this would have happened that way but it could have happened. So the afirmation that there was no chance for the Germans to land on the island seems a little exaggerated.

I admire your enthusiasm, but the adults are talking. Go play with your Wii, or sumfink.

[Cambronne]

haha...Jon,you are just like my little cousin that tries to contradict me by saying:"You,stupid!" And he is 17 yrs old.

[JonS]

Smart kid, your cousin.

[Cambronne]

well,if you think like a 17 yr boy...you may be just as smart as one

[Elmar Bijlsma]

firstly,the RN would have attacked the channel by night while the Germans would have crossed it by day.Secondly,the germans would have close guarded their invasion fleet with cruisers and Bismark and Tirpitz battleships. So while the Luftwaffe was dealing with the big ships of the Royal Navy,the small boats and destroyers which escaped the aerial attacks were easy mark for the German navy. I am not saying that this would have happened that way but it could have happened. So the afirmation that there was no chance for the Germans to land on the island seems a little exaggerated.

Firstly, why would the Germans attack by day? They weren't aware the Brits were reading their mail and chances are good they would have attempted surprise by night. Daylight only operations would leave very little daylight to land troops before the invasion fleet would have to make for safety. Remember, most of the large vessels would've had to come from beyond the Frisian Isles in the first place.

Secondly, Bismarck and Tirpitz? You are showing a fundamental lack of knowledge of the situation. At the time, the Kriegsmarine was down to a handful of crappy light cruisers and destroyers. No heavy cruisers, no battleships. The channel flotillas alone would be sufficient to cripple any comers.

Thirdly, you give too much credit to the Luftwaffe. If they are dealing with the home fleet, who'd be supporting the troops landing? and you underestimate the British fleet. Though severly mauled at Crete, this was mostly resulting from lack of aircover, limited AA ammo and no nearby ports to run to. In a Seelöwe scenario, the RN would come out with vastly more powerful fleets and not disadvantaged. The Luftwaffe would find it very much tougher. And even if they sank a generous 50% of the Home Fleet on the 1st day, what would you think the rest would do? Go home and cry? Not a chance! Even a so very much battered home Fleet would find it as easy to drown the invaders then a sack full of puppies.

And what do you think Bomber Command would be doing all this time? A stationary invasion fleet right on their doorstep, they wouldn't believe their luck.

[ASL Veteran]

That's because your scenario is so far counter-factual that you might as well ask what would have happened if little green men had descended in a fleet of flying saucers and declared a world government. Gee, I don't know the answer to that one either. I guess things would be different, huh?

Michael

Nice. First Hitler declaring war on Japan wasn't my idea - I was just trying to humor someone else's post so just eliminate that from your calculus. The only thing I was asking was that if Hitler would have waited one year to attack the Soviet Union, then the strategic calculation may have changed so much due to the attack at Pearl Harbor that he wouldn't have invaded the Soviet Union at all. How would WW2 have changed as a result if he did invade anyway or if he decided not to. After all, prior to the invasion of the Soviet Union he was already at war with Britain, his panzer divisions just had a spring campaign in the Balkans, and his invasion was delayed until the end of June leaving him with a shortened campaigning season. You really think Hitler waiting one more year to invade the Soviet Union is the equivalent of a fleet of flying saucers landing and declaring a world government? Wow.

I can think of many reasons why he would have waited one year. In fact, I would say that the possibility of Hitler waiting one year to invade the Soviet Union is more reasonable than Germany invading the UK yet you have no problem discussing that. All Hitler would have had to do was say "Let's invade in 1942" and it's history changed just like that. No such luck with an invasion of Britain I'm sorry to say, so I think your remark about flying saucers is probably more appropriate to that discussion than to my question.

[GSX]

So what we have here as I see it are two conflicting views.

1. Hitlers hordes would be able to invade the UK in 1940.

2. They may have tried, but they would have failed.

The supporting evidence so far for them seems to be for:

1. They were Germans, of course they could have invaded, no probelem, no matter what.

2. - The RAF would have contested the landings, this includes a pretty large Bomber Command, who would presumably not sit about drinking the

Ubiquitous 'tea'.

- The RN would have contested the landings with the whole of the Home Fleet, if necessary sacrificing every ship. Against this the Germans had few surafce ships and not many aircraft or weapons capable of sinking large surface ships.

- Even if the Germans did get ashore they would then be outnumbered by the UK land forces. They didnt have the capability to land a Panzer Division and so a few infantry formations only would have been landed.

- Even if all of this worked and the Germans gained a beachhead, they would have to supply the forces already ashore. How they would manage this would be anyones guess.

I fully understand that its a great 'what if', but its one of those that becomes very impractical with a bit of thought. Hitlers best chance of deflecting the british was probably lost when, a. The British Army slunk away at Dunkirk and more importantly b. When Churchil became Prime Minister.

Its a nice 'what if' though, but that small strip of Channel is the reason I'm not writing this in german!!!

[ASL Veteran]

So the situation is that by the autumn of 1940, Hitler has made up his mind to go to war with the USSR. What could possibly have changed his mind? That's the question you need to focus on. If there were some way to convince him that the Soviet state was not nearly so fragile as he imagined it was, maybe that would have convinced him. But how do you do that? Take him on a ten year tour of the country to show him the people, their resilience and intelligence, the factories and their output? Would that have changed his mind? Or would he have just sneered and only seen the things that confirmed him in his beliefs?

Michael

Nope. I didn't say what if Hitler changed his mind and decided not to invade at all. The only thing I was pondering was what if Hitler, rather than deciding to invade in 1941 like he did (in spite of an unanticipated spring Balkan campaign) decided to delay the invasion to 1942 so the German army would have been better prepared. So I don't need to focus on Hitler deciding not to invade the Soviet Union, it's simply a question around the circumstances of that invasion. In 1941 Hitler was only at war with Britain while in 1942 Hitler would probably have been at war with both Britain and the United States. Would he still invade the Soviet Union if he was already at war with the United States and how would the course of WW2 been altered.

It's a very simple question. Judging from the circumstances around the signing of the Nazi Soviet Pact I would speculate that he wouldn't have invaded the Soviet Union because the whole point of the pact in the first place was to be able to concentrate on France and Britain and avoid a two front war. His experience with the US in WW1 and his desire to avoid a two front war probably would have him see the US as such a formidable enemy that he would have concentrated all his efforts on the defeat of the US and the UK and indefinitely postponed his Soviet invasion.

Would Stalin then have invaded Germany at some point? Would that invasion have been successful or would the Germans have defeated a Soviet invasion of Germany? Six months of time and an altered strategic reality is all I am talking about.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Its a nice 'what if' though, but that small strip of Channel is the reason I'm not writing this in german!!!

What, your entire education system slipped, fell in and drowned?

For a measure of the Luftwaffe's überness versus shipping, look no further then the opening moves of the BoB. A dismal failure against lightly protected and slow coastal steamers.

[Cambronne]

Firstly, why would the Germans attack by day? They weren't aware the Brits were reading their mail and chances are good they would have attempted surprise by night. Daylight only operations would leave very little daylight to land troops before the invasion fleet would have to make for safety. Remember, most of the large vessels would've had to come from beyond the Frisian Isles in the first place.

Secondly, Bismarck and Tirpitz? You are showing a fundamental lack of knowledge of the situation. At the time, the Kriegsmarine was down to a handful of crappy light cruisers and destroyers. No heavy cruisers, no battleships. The channel flotillas alone would be sufficient to cripple any comers.

Thirdly, you give too much credit to the Luftwaffe. If they are dealing with the home fleet, who'd be supporting the troops landing? and you underestimate the British fleet. Though severly mauled at Crete, this was mostly resulting from lack of aircover, limited AA ammo and no nearby ports to run to. In a Seelöwe scenario, the RN would come out with vastly more powerful fleets and not disadvantaged. The Luftwaffe would find it very much tougher. And even if they sank a generous 50% of the Home Fleet on the 1st day, what would you think the rest would do? Go home and cry? Not a chance! Even a so very much battered home Fleet would find it as easy to drown the invaders then a sack full of puppies.

And what do you think Bomber Command would be doing all this time? A stationary invasion fleet right on their doorstep, they wouldn't believe their luck.

Attack by day would-obviously-take advantage of the air supremacy.Even if they attacked by night it is not a sure thing that the British would have intercepted their communications. Until mid 1941 the British had only partial breakthrough of the Enigma.

Bismark was already commissioned in august so it could have supported the invasion fleet in the second half of the month.As about Tirpitz you're right it was not available in 1940,but was in 1941.

There is no need of the whole Luftwaffe to wreak havoc on the main ships of a surface fleet.At Midway three of the four carriers were put out of action by the Enterprise dive bombers alone in just 5 minutes.And they would have been sunk way earlier if the zeroes wouldn't have provided a powerful aircover.The story of prince of Wales and Repulse is well known,they were at the bottom of the ocean in one our.Even the mighty Musashi and Yamato didn't survive more than a few hours to air attacks and were down at a price of about 30 aircraft combined.The big ships of the British rescue fleet could be decimated before the encounter with the close escort.

Again,you took my post as if I said the succesful landing was a SURE THING provided the air supremacy.Far from this I am just trying to show it would not have been a SURE FAILURE as others stated.

[Battlefront.com]

My take on it is as I said before... I think that if Hitler had been obsessed with knocking Britain out of the war, instead of being obsessed with raping and pillaging the East, that Britain could have been knocked out of the war in 1941 with the assets that were available to the Third Reich at the end of the French campaign. And I also include Dunkirk in this because if the German focus had been where it should have been the British would have had significantly less forces to defend itself with (not at home, not in North Africa). Dunkirk would not have played out as it did if Hitler had prioritized the destruction of the BEF in Normandy.

Note I say "knocking Britain out of the war", not "occupying Britain". As far as I'm concerned, an invasion of Britain isn't even a "what if" scenario because that's like saying "what if the Third Reich had been teleported back to the year 1233, just think of what they could have done!"

The only way the Third Reich could have invaded Britain with the status quo of 1940 was to have completely shelved going to war against ANY OTHER NATION and instead pursued one, and only one, strategy -> a comprehensive war against Britain and ONLY Britain. A full mobilization of the German war economy (which in real life didn't happen until 1943), all military might aimed at Britain, all war production optimized for an invasion, etc. could have put Germany in a position to successfully invade by 1943 or 1944. However, I suspect Britain would have "sued for peace" long before the first German transports were even constructed.

Steve

[Cambronne]

Perhaps it is more accurate to talk about the Axis rather than Germans.The Germans were not alone,the British were.The Italian Regia Marina would became available for the invasion,counting that the British Fleet is withdrawn for the defence of the Channel. Italians had 2 Battleships in summer 1940 and about 10-15 cruisers. Their Regia Aeronautica and land army proved feeble but the Navy could help the defence of the invasion fleet from what English ships would have escaped from the Luftwaffe.So I definitely won't bet the island would have been safe in case the Axis put the whole weight on it.

[Aacooper]

Getting the Italian Navy out of the Mediterranean would have been the hard part, though.

[Sergei]

Well they got to the Lake Ladoga in 1942... though just one torpedo boat detachment. Transporting a battleship via Austria might have been interesting.

[JonS]

Getting the Italian Navy out of the Mediterranean would have been the hard part, though.

Their ships were also designed with - funnily enough - the conditions of the Med in mind, rather than the Atlantic, i.e. short voyages and no swells. The RM would have been significantly less effective in the Atlantic than they were in the Med.

Incidentally, this discussion of 'attack by day' vice 'attack by night' is largely moot, since it would have taken a day and a night to get the unpowered barges across the Channel from France to the south coast of Britain.

[Michael Emrys]

firstly,the RN would have attacked the channel by night while the Germans would have crossed it by day.

Sorry, no. As Jon has already noted, it would have taken more than 24 hours to get across, and that was in calm weather. With any kind of chop it may well have taken longer or been aborted entirely.

If the invasion fleet sails at dawn, it likely gets spotted early on and the RN has all the daylight hours to get ready, then steams out at nightfall and rips into the Germans. If the invasion fleet waits until dark to come out, it has to get itself organized in the dark, a task it was not prepared for (remember, the barges and the tugs to tow them were river craft and not trained for this kind of operation at all). When the sun comes up, they are but a fraction of the distance from their ports to the invasion beaches and probably still trying to get organized. If the Luftwaffe is protecting the boat from the RAF, it is not doing much attacking on its own of targets in or near England proper.

So the invasion sails all day under observation and at least minor harassment. The British know which way they are headed and how long it will take them to get there. Although the Germans might send some commandoes ahead to land during dark to capture some key facilities, with whatever success they might have with that, you can bet the Germans are not going to try to land the main force in the dark. They are going to time the arrival of the main force arriving off the beaches just before sun up. That means the RN will have all the dark hours to mess with them with no interference from the Luftwaffe whatsoever.

Secondly,the germans would have close guarded their invasion fleet with cruisers and Bismark and Tirpitz battleships.

While the Bismark may have been commissioned, it was still working up and was not ready to go into battle for months. In fact, it was still being worked on when it took its first and last cruise into the Atlantic. The Tirpitz was even further from completion. As Elmar noted, a couple of light cruisers, a handful of destroyers and some S-Boots and a few other light armed craft would have been all the Krigsmarine could have put up for protection.

So while the Luftwaffe was dealing with the big ships of the Royal Navy,the small boats and destroyers which escaped the aerial attacks were easy mark for the German navy.

You really are praying for a miracle here.

[Michael Emrys]

My take on it is as I said before... I think that if Hitler had been obsessed with knocking Britain out of the war, instead of being obsessed with raping and pillaging the East, that Britain could have been knocked out of the war in 1941 with the assets that were available to the Third Reich at the end of the French campaign. And I also include Dunkirk in this because if the German focus had been where it should have been the British would have had significantly less forces to defend itself with (not at home, not in North Africa). Dunkirk would not have played out as it did if Hitler had prioritized the destruction of the BEF in Normandy.

Note I say "knocking Britain out of the war", not "occupying Britain". As far as I'm concerned, an invasion of Britain isn't even a "what if" scenario because that's like saying "what if the Third Reich had been teleported back to the year 1233, just think of what they could have done!"

The only way the Third Reich could have invaded Britain with the status quo of 1940 was to have completely shelved going to war against ANY OTHER NATION and instead pursued one, and only one, strategy -> a comprehensive war against Britain and ONLY Britain. A full mobilization of the German war economy (which in real life didn't happen until 1943), all military might aimed at Britain, all war production optimized for an invasion, etc. could have put Germany in a position to successfully invade by 1943 or 1944. However, I suspect Britain would have "sued for peace" long before the first German transports were even constructed.

I think you are very nearly on the right track here, Steve. There was a very slim chance that Germany might have removed the British Empire from the list of belligerents, but it would have had to act very quickly and surely after the fall of France when British opinion, both public and governmental, was in a state of shock. In fact, maybe the time to act was even before the fall of France, before the Somme was crossed. If the Dunkirk pocket had been speedily liquidated and the BEF had all gone into the bag, Hitler might have offered to halt his armies provided that both France and the UK immediately accept terms. This would require an exceedingly nice estimation of the political climate in both those countries, and I am far from certain that the Germans were capable of that. But nevertheless remains a slim possibility.

If Hitler cannot win peace on his terms at that moment, the odds of getting it at all decline sharply. The conquest of France continues apace, and Hitler loses the chance of bringing France back into the war as an ally, at least any time soon.

If Britain is not taken out of the war quickly, and an invasion of the major British Isles is not within Germany's grasp, what is left is a peripheral strategy. This entails intensified U-Boot warfare, which however risks bringing the US into the war earlier, and invasion and capture of British holdings in the Middle East and elsewhere that Germany can get to. This is time consuming and meanwhile Stalin is watching it all go down and making his own calculations.

While there is a slim chance of this all working out to Germany's advantage, its position is very delicate. It would require great political and strategic shrewdness, and I don't see a lot of that evidenced in the Third Reich after the shooting started.

Michael