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Syria hails 'a new Middle East'


akd

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Seems Syria helping embelish the backstory for CMSF.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad says a new Middle East has emerged as a result of what he called Hezbollah's victory over Israel in southern Lebanon.

He said the vision of the region the US aspired to had become an illusion.

His comments came as the truce between Israel and Hezbollah remains intact despite sporadic violence.

Thousands of displaced Lebanese are returning home after a halt to the conflict, in which both sides claimed to have been successful.

Mr Assad, speaking in Damascus a day after the UN-brokered ceasefire took effect, was giving his first speech on the crisis since it began more than a month ago.

He praised the "the glorious battle" he said had been waged by Hezbollah, and said peace in the Middle East was not possible with the Bush administration in power in Washington.

"This is an administration that adopts the principle of pre-emptive war that is absolutely contradictory to the principle of peace," he said. "Consequently, we don't expect peace soon or in the foreseeable future."

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I think the big lesson Israel is taking from this is that the American way to wage war (heavily airpower centric) does not always work well. Had they sent in forces closer to the start it might have been more effective. Of course, that might depend on what they had on hand to go in there with in the beginning...

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It would appear that Hezbollah thought this out very well indeed. From what I can tell they acheived exactly what they wanted. Israel damaged its credibility for the destruction in Lebanon (rightly or wrongly), it failed to stop the rocket attacks, it failed to significantly degrade Hezbollah, it failed to take ground easily, etc., etc. It's similar to the situation the US faces in Iraq. Perception is everything since a traditional military victory is impossible. It also showed how weak the Bush Admin is in general, but specifically in terms of being able to get world opinion on the side of its staunch ally, Israel.

So for all the crap that comes out of Damascus... Assad has a valid point.

Steve

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See, that's the reason english speaking nations can't take these guys seriously.

He's insane?

Who's insane?

Hussain!

What?

It's Saddam!

It's the damn what?

What?

Who's insane?

Hussain!

That's what I'm asking!

What?

Who is the guy that is insane?

Hussain!

Oh man... who is the guy that is crazy?

Iyatola?

No you didn't!

I didn't what?

You didn't tell me!

Didn't tell you what?

Who's insane?

Hussain!

Why are you being an Ass-head!

He's in Syria?

Who?

Assad

Aw forget it, I'm bushed.

Well don't blame me, I voted for the guy with 3 purple hearts!

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Don't know if this is reliable:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=51555

Syria to form its own Hezbollah

Baath party official: Lebanon war proves 'resistance' against Israel works

Posted: August 17, 2006

1:00 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein

© 2006 WorldNetDaily.com

JERUSALEM – On the heels of what it views as a Hezbollah victory against the Jewish state, Syria is forming its own Hezbollah-like guerilla organization to fight Israel in hopes of "liberating" the Golan Heights, an official from Syrian President Bashar Assad's Ba'ath party told WorldNetDaily yesterday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Syria learned from Hezbollah's military campaign against Israel the past month that "fighting" is more effective than peace negotiations with regard to gaining territory.

He said Syria's new guerilla force would be trained by Hezbollah leaders.

"Syria is very serious about establishing this new guerilla force," the official said.

In a televised address yesterday, Assad declared Hezbollah's path of "resistance" achieved results during the last four weeks of fighting against Israel.

"The region has changed because of the achievements of the resistance [Hezbollah]," said Assad, speaking to a journalists association.

Assad said members of Hezbollah used their "will, determination and faith" to counter Israeli arms, enabling the Lebanese militia to defeat Israel.

"We tell them [israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you – not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs. ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Israel," Assad said.

"The resistance is necessary as much as it is natural and legitimate," said the Syrian president, claiming the war in Lebanon revealed the limitations of Israel's military power.

"The result was more failure for Israel, its allies and masters," said Assad.

Hezbollah claims its goal is to liberate the Shebaa Farms, a small, 200-square-kilometer bloc situated between Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The Farms is the last post held by Israel after its withdrawal in 2000 from positions it took along the Lebanese border.

Most Western analysts agree Hezbollah uses the pretext of the Shebaa Farms to maintain its weapons to start conflicts with the Jewish state. Hezbollah is sponsored by Syria and Iran.

The cease-fire resolution accepted by Israel earlier this week calls for negotiations leading to Israel's relinquishing of the Shebaa Farms.

The Baath party official told WND the new Syrian "resistance" group is calling itself the Front for the Liberation of the Golan, and is already in the process of being formed. He said it seeks to ensure the return of the Golan Heights.

Israel captured the Heights, strategic mountainous territory, after Syria used the terrain to attack the Jewish state in 1967 and again in 1973. The Golan Heights borders Israel, Syria and Lebanon.

Israeli security officials said they had no information about the Front for the Liberation of the Golan.

The Ba'ath party official told WND the Front was formed last month and will attempt attacks against Israel. The official said the group currently consists of "hundreds" of Syrian volunteers, many from the Syrian border with Turkey. He said Syria held registration for volunteers to join the Front in June.

The official said most Front members will be Palestinian and not members of the Syrian army.

"We know from history guerilla resistance works against Israel," said the official.

He pointed not only to Israel's most recent confrontation with Hezbollah, but also to what he said was a previous Syrian "victory" against the Israeli Defense Forces using guerilla tactics.

"After a cease-fire was imposed in 1973 [following the Yom Kippur War) for 100 days Syria led guerilla attacks against Israel in the Golan Heights and they were successful. The IDF withdrew nearly 100 kilometers from the original cease-fire lines."

Indeed, after Syria accepted a United Nations cease-fire in October 1973, it waged a sporadic guerilla campaign against Israeli troops in the Golan until a disengagement agreement was reached March 31, 1974, that saw Israel withdraw from some sections of the territory.

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Originally posted by J Ruddy:

See, that's the reason english speaking nations can't take these guys seriously.

He's insane?

Who's insane?

Hussain!

What?

It's Saddam!

It's the damn what?

What?

Who's insane?

Hussain!

That's what I'm asking!

What?

Who is the guy that is insane?

Hussain!

Oh man... who is the guy that is crazy?

Iyatola?

No you didn't!

I didn't what?

You didn't tell me!

Didn't tell you what?

Who's insane?

Hussain!

Why are you being an Ass-head!

He's in Syria?

Who?

Assad

Aw forget it, I'm bushed.

Well don't blame me, I voted for the guy with 3 purple hearts!

:rolleyes: Easy for you to say. :D
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Originally posted by fytinghellfish:

Don't know if this is reliable:

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=51555

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Syria to form its own Hezbollah

Baath party official: Lebanon war proves 'resistance' against Israel works

Posted: August 17, 2006

1:00 a.m. Eastern

By Aaron Klein

© 2006 WorldNetDaily.com

JERUSALEM – On the heels of what it views as a Hezbollah victory against the Jewish state, Syria is forming its own Hezbollah-like guerilla organization to fight Israel in hopes of "liberating" the Golan Heights, an official from Syrian President Bashar Assad's Ba'ath party told WorldNetDaily yesterday.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Syria learned from Hezbollah's military campaign against Israel the past month that "fighting" is more effective than peace negotiations with regard to gaining territory.

He said Syria's new guerilla force would be trained by Hezbollah leaders.

"Syria is very serious about establishing this new guerilla force," the official said.

In a televised address yesterday, Assad declared Hezbollah's path of "resistance" achieved results during the last four weeks of fighting against Israel.

"The region has changed because of the achievements of the resistance [Hezbollah]," said Assad, speaking to a journalists association.

Assad said members of Hezbollah used their "will, determination and faith" to counter Israeli arms, enabling the Lebanese militia to defeat Israel.

"We tell them [israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you – not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs. ... The future generations in the Arab world will find a way to defeat Israel," Assad said.

"The resistance is necessary as much as it is natural and legitimate," said the Syrian president, claiming the war in Lebanon revealed the limitations of Israel's military power.

"The result was more failure for Israel, its allies and masters," said Assad.

Hezbollah claims its goal is to liberate the Shebaa Farms, a small, 200-square-kilometer bloc situated between Syria, Lebanon and Israel. The Farms is the last post held by Israel after its withdrawal in 2000 from positions it took along the Lebanese border.

Most Western analysts agree Hezbollah uses the pretext of the Shebaa Farms to maintain its weapons to start conflicts with the Jewish state. Hezbollah is sponsored by Syria and Iran.

The cease-fire resolution accepted by Israel earlier this week calls for negotiations leading to Israel's relinquishing of the Shebaa Farms.

The Baath party official told WND the new Syrian "resistance" group is calling itself the Front for the Liberation of the Golan, and is already in the process of being formed. He said it seeks to ensure the return of the Golan Heights.

Israel captured the Heights, strategic mountainous territory, after Syria used the terrain to attack the Jewish state in 1967 and again in 1973. The Golan Heights borders Israel, Syria and Lebanon.

Israeli security officials said they had no information about the Front for the Liberation of the Golan.

The Ba'ath party official told WND the Front was formed last month and will attempt attacks against Israel. The official said the group currently consists of "hundreds" of Syrian volunteers, many from the Syrian border with Turkey. He said Syria held registration for volunteers to join the Front in June.

The official said most Front members will be Palestinian and not members of the Syrian army.

"We know from history guerilla resistance works against Israel," said the official.

He pointed not only to Israel's most recent confrontation with Hezbollah, but also to what he said was a previous Syrian "victory" against the Israeli Defense Forces using guerilla tactics.

"After a cease-fire was imposed in 1973 [following the Yom Kippur War) for 100 days Syria led guerilla attacks against Israel in the Golan Heights and they were successful. The IDF withdrew nearly 100 kilometers from the original cease-fire lines."

Indeed, after Syria accepted a United Nations cease-fire in October 1973, it waged a sporadic guerilla campaign against Israeli troops in the Golan until a disengagement agreement was reached March 31, 1974, that saw Israel withdraw from some sections of the territory.

</font>
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Interesting. Well, I suspect Syria already has their own Hezbollah. I think it is called... uhm... Hezbollah :D Seriously though, Syrian forces have been largely responsible for training, arming, sheltering, and even directing Hezbollah's actions for so many years, it is foolish to think that they don't have something like this witin Syria itself.

If I were Assad, I'd disband all conventional armed forces. I'd sell off all my armor, aircraft, large heavy weapons, and other related junk. With that money I'd reinvest in weapons caches and cadres in every populated area in Syria. They would be trained to operate independently of each other, yet working off of a master plan. Then I'd tell the world "come on in if you dare, otherwise leave us alone". If someone decided to try and take advantage of this, like doing an airstrike of some sort, then I'd activate a commando group within that nation (did I forget to mention the caches and cadres in other countries? Hmmm... oops ;) ) that would retaliate in kind.

This does three things:

1. Radically reduce military expendatures per year.

2. Offers a net improvement in national defense capabilities.

3. Removes any claim my enemies would have that I'm a threat to their security.

And here is why I don't Assad, or any other dictatorship, will do it:

1. Because it removes the threat of one's neighbors. For some idiotic reason, this is important to maintain.

2. Quelling internal opposition would be, perhaps, more difficult.

3. Sets up the posibilities of the same organization being used against the state. This possibility exists with the armed forces, but is (in theory) easier to control due to the strong centralized nature of the military.

Anyway, I know if I were the President of the US I'd stay clear of any nation that set up its national defense policy to conduct a long term, high intensity insurgency. It's just not worth the bother since a defeat is the only possible outcome.

Steve

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I'm sure Syria is feeling pretty smug these days:

1.The UN investigation into prime minister Hariri's assassination was already losing steam before the war and now appears to be pretty much on the back burner.

2. The Syrian backed Hezbollah scored a "victory" against Israel, which again improves Syria's prestige in the Arab street; and

3. more importantly, the situation in Lebanon gives Syria an opportunity to sneak back in. This is the reaction of one of Lebanon's leading politicians to Assad's speech this week, it looks like they are worried about that possibility:

Al-Hariri: Syria worse than Israel

Thursday 17 August 2006, 14:48 Makka Time, 11:48 GMT

Saad al-Hariri: Lebanese reject Syria's attempt to sow discord

"The leader of Lebanon's largest parliamentary bloc has said the Syrian president's attack on Lebanese politicians is worse than the destruction wreaked by Israel.

Saad al-Hariri, the head of the al-Mustaqbal or Future, bloc and son of the slain former prime minister, Rafiq al-Hariri, said on Thursday that Bashar al-Assad had disdained Arab kindness towards Syria and his speech on Tuesday was like a "heavy strike" against Lebanon.

Al-Hariri was responding to a speech on Tuesday by al-Assad in which he accused Lebanon's anti-Syrian groups of allying themselves with Israel, which bombarded Lebanon for 34 days.

Al-Assad had also accused the anti-Syrian bloc of wanting to sow discord in Lebanon by demanding that Hezbollah, the Syrian-backed Shia resistance group, disarm.

"Lebanon's wound [inflicted by Israel] is deep and painful, but today it has faced a deeper one from a friend [syria]," he said.

Taking advantage

While the Syrian people showed the Lebanese love and support, the Syrian government presented hatred and lies to the Beirut government, he said.

"Lebanon's wound [inflicted by Israel] is deep and painful, but today it has faced a deeper one from a friend [syria]"

Saad al-Hariri, head of the Future bloc in Lebanon

"The Syrian people are like a support for Lebanon, but the Damascus regime is taking advantage of the Arab children's blood in Qana, Gaza and Baghdad to cause strife in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq.

"There is a neighbouring country that is threatening to shake the stability in Lebanon but we reject that.

"The victory is in Lebanese unity."

He said that those who forged that unity on March 14 would continue to protect it.

Hundreds of thousands of people rallied in central Beirut on March 14 last year against Syrian domination of Lebanese politics after the assassination of al-Hariri's father. It led to Syrian troops withdrawing from Lebanon after 29 years.

Unity versus aggression

Al-Hariri also attacked Israel in his speech to hundreds of supporters in Beirut.

"The history of Israel is full of massacres, but our history is marked by its steadiness," he said.

He applauded the resistance and the Lebanese people, saying that they were "much stronger than the Israeli aggression".

"The Israeli aggression may be able to destroy Lebanon [physically] but it cannot touch the Lebanese unity, which is what will help to rebuild the country."

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[ August 17, 2006, 03:13 PM: Message edited by: JCH ]

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Steve said -

Israel damaged its credibility for the destruction in Lebanon (rightly or wrongly), it failed to stop the rocket attacks, it failed to significantly degrade Hezbollah, it failed to take ground easily, etc., etc. It's similar to the situation the US faces in Iraq. Perception is everything since a traditional military victory is impossible.
Steve, I know no civilians are going to be in CMSF, but in light of recent events and your statement above will US forces in the game often be restricted, or serverely restricted in the use of large firepower assets such as air-power, MLRS/155mm and have to operate under restrictive ROE or forefit VPs if they step over the mark? Likewise with casualties - will US Forces take a bigger VP hit for similar casualties figures to the Syrians i.e. if both sides had 10 KIA and 25 WIA and 5 MIA would the US player suffer more in VPs than the Syrian player in light of political realities?
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Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

Interesting. Well, I suspect Syria already has their own Hezbollah.

Do you mean irregular combatants? IMO The idea is not too different from the various militias and minutemen in the US of A, except for the odd beer gut and flat bed Ford. :D

I'm just an ignorant Canuckopian, isn't that where the right to bear arms comes from? The need to have an irregular force available to act when the government fails to do whatever it is that the people expect it to do? Or have I simply found a new septic pit to dig in?

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Guys,

It is all over for Syria. I just found on MSNBC:

As questions lingered over the cease-fire, Finland said Friday it would send up to 250 peacekeepers, but they would not be deployed until November.

What chance does Syria have with 250 ewoks armed with toothpicks on its border?

Rune

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cassh,

Obviously we can't do what we would really like to with the civilian aspect of the modern battlefield. But like you say, we can't simply stick with the traditional wargaming "ignore it and it doesn't exist" philosophy. So we are looking at ways to abstractly represent civilian concerns. We have two concepts currently planned:

1. Allowing destruction of buildings to be part of the Victory Conditions. If the US player whacks too many buildings he might lose the scenario. Or if he whacks SPECIFIC buildings he might lose it. Both the general and specific conditions are determined by the Scenario Designer and should be made known to the player before he starts blowing stuff up.

2. Simulating the "stealth" capabilities of civilian disguised irregular fighters. I can't comment much about this feature at the moment because we're still tweaking the concept and aren't quite sure how it will work in reality. However, in theory we have something that will be darned close to simulating the real life problems with such forces.

#1 means the US player must try to conduct combat ops with more precision than he otherwise would be allowed. The WWII "recon by fire" method so many CM players employ will often be a sure way to lose the battle in CM:SF. #2 means the Syrians can be real pains in the butt with very small and low tech units. It means the US player will always have to be on his toes and radically altering his battleplan midstream to address something that he couldn't possibly specifically plan for.

J Ruddy,

The Syrians have an extensive "militia" system, as do most dictatorships. Traditionally these forces haven't been a major concern, but theoretically if trained, equipped, funded, and directed better they very well could be. Having said that, the will of militias to fight on to the death generally isn't there force wide. Part time fighters soon realize that death isn't a part time result. A well motivated militia generally becomes a full time force and is, in my opinion, no longer a militia. It then becomes a "para military" force.

Steve

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Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

The Syrians have an extensive "militia" system, as does most dictatorships.

Maybe I don't fully understand what you just said, it wouldn't be the first time. But I have never heard of this correlation before.

I would think that most dictatorships would not tolerate armed militant groups within their borders that could not be directly controled.

I'm thinking of places like China, NK, Cuba, the ex-Soviet Union etc. where a totalitarian regime needs to keep it's population in check. Or maybe I'm confusing totalitariatisms with dictatorships...

I can see how the tribal history of Syria and the Middle East in general would result in family/tribal based militias, but I don't believe this is a result of having a dictatorship.

Meh - best to leave this sort of thing off the board I guess, it doesn't help the game out.

Or does it?

It could make for interesting Red on Red scenarios if some Syrians split and join the Yanks based on Tribal or Religious differences.

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Remember that dictatorships are paranoid, and the more people they have armed and watching each other, the better things generally are. Checks and balances by weapons instead of laws, if you will.

Communist countries call these "Worker's Militias". In peace time they get rudimentary training and weaponry, so at the time they aren't really a potential threat. When war happens they are organized for local defense, even if the enemy never gets there. It's part of the pyschological warfare of the state vs. the general populace.

Dictatorships, that are not Communist, have similar setups. In Nazi Germany it was the Hitler Jugend and later the Volkssturm, as well as the fanciful Werwolves. Same basic concept, different means of execution.

I would think that most dictatorships would not tolerate armed militant groups within their borders that could not be directly controled.
In peace time that is correct. They are tightly controlled or kept largely inactive. This is why my suggestion above won't happen in Syria. Meaning, militarily Syria would be much better off if they got rid of the bloated and expensive conventional military and instead focused on "cells" of well trained and well armed unconventional fighters. But once that happens Syria can no longer threaten its neighbors or squash uprisings (like the elder Assad did). So although it makes military sense to do as I suggested, it isn't practical.

What is practical is having a para military force. This is what Saddam did with the Fedayeen and it was pretty effective. I expect the Syrians are working on their own version of this.

Steve

[ August 18, 2006, 09:56 AM: Message edited by: Battlefront.com ]

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Originally posted by J Ruddy:

D'oh. Finns in the desert... At least they're going to wait until it cools off a litte... :D

Finns have had desert operations for half a century now (Africa, mideast, Afghanistan...) and every time the first task is to build a sauna, for no matter where you are it's never hot enough :D

the Finnish blue berets are in a mission of love, not war

53-C2.jpg

(in reality the flower penetrates 900mm rha after ERA)

(Steve, note the desert camo so that you get it right in the CMSF "Finnish blue berets and EU battle groups" module :D )

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Thanks Steve. That sounds very flexible and cool - I like the stealth-ambiguity option for irregulars masquerading as civvies - which I presume keeps a unit hidden to the last when their real world cover would be blown, but neatly keeps the civvies off the streets.

Also think the building/structure related option is very cool - I hope this feature is applied to bridges and other infrastructure as well as standard buildings?

Schools and Mosque will be the bane of every task force commander's life...

Welcome to the Real World - (no Mr. Mister comments!)

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Ah, the new Finnish m/05 desert uniform... I'd give a certain part of my anatomy for one of those :D I'd give the other one for the temperate version too!

Cassh, all terrain is (in theory) deformable. However, special coding and models have be created in order for them to function that way. We don't know how much we will be able to do for the initial release, but we are going try and get all the basics in at least.

Sometime soon I'll post details about how we are handling the unconventional forces. The design is not yet 100% Jar Approved ;)

Steve

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