Syria and Russia

[Holo]

"Furthermore, the London based "al-Awsat" reported on August 11, 2005 that Iran and a number of Gulf States have worked out a way to handle Syria's $12 billion arms debt to Russia so that Syria can now sign a new major arms deal with Russia which will include: 48 MIG-29's; 14-24 Sukhoi-27 [which is claimed to be a better performer than the Israeli F-15's]; SAM-11 ground to air missiles to replace the SAM-6's; SAM-12's for defense against missiles and jets to replace the SAM-5's, M300BMU - a development of the SAM-10 which is claimed to be superior to the American Patriot, able to strike jets 100 kilometers away and missiles 40 kilometers away; as well as 300 T-80 tanks."

Does anybody knows what T-80 models are being purchased?

"According to MissileThreats.com, in June of 2006, the Russian newspaper Kommersant reported Moscow's decision to establish naval bases in the Syrian ports of Tartus and Latakia. As part of the plan, the port of Tartus would be transformed into a naval base for Russia's Black Sea Fleet when it is away from the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol. The Russian plan involves the installation of an air defense system with S-300PMU-2 Favorit ballistic missiles. The missiles have a range of 200 kilometers (124 miles), allow a larger warhead and are equipped with a better guidance system than the previous version. The air defense system would be operated by Russia for the defense of the Tartus base and would provide potential protection for a large part of Syria. Through these initiatives, it is clear that Russia wants to strengthen its position in the Middle East."

Hmmm, is this game getting more and more interesting or what?

[hellfish]

I don't think anything came of the first article. And the Russians, if they were really to be based in Syria, wouldn't get in the way of the US in a shooting war.

[Holo]

Originally posted by fytinghellfish:

And the Russians, if they were really to be based in Syria, wouldn't get in the way of the US in a shooting war.

Well, although I'm not politicly too educated, US attacking country that has Russian bases seems to me more or less similar to Russia attacking country that has US bases.

But, it gives an oportunity for a game module that confronts US and Russia, while still being in the original setting of CM:SF.

[hellfish]

I don't think Russia would be able to get significant ground forces to the region in time for any war. They might have a marine battalion and some service troops at the base, but that's not much of a deterrent or warfighting force. Russia would have too much to lose in a shooting war with the US, even if it was confined to Syria.

[Blofeld]

The relationship between Russia and Syria has been warming up. I also found an article hinting at possible arms sales and Russian naval bases in Syria:

"... In the last two years, Russia has built a closer relationship with Syria. The country is an important cash-buyer of Russian arms and an interesting partner for Russia's energy industries..."

"...When connecting these latest initiatives in Syria to Russia's good ties with Iran, it is clear that Moscow is planning on playing a stronger role in the political and diplomatic dynamics of the Middle East. Part of the plan, the port of Tartus would be transformed into a naval base for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet when it is away from the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol...."

"...Syria is Russia's most important partner in the region. Thirty-five thousand Syrians hold degrees from Russian universities. At a Kremlin reception for Syrian President Bashar Assad, Putin, referring to the Soviet era, praised the two countries' "special and sincere relations" -- and promptly forgave about $10 billion in Syrian debt accumulated over the years, principally as a result of arms purchases. Over three decades, the current president's father, Hafiz Assad, received military equipment valued at about $25 billion from the Russians. To this day, the 308,000 troops in the country's armed forces are equipped almost exclusively with Soviet gear, including 4,600 tanks, primarily T-72 and T-62 models, about 600 MIG and Sukhoi fighter jets, 170 helicopters and at least two diesel-powered submarines.

Russia has also agreed to beef up Syria's war muscle by supplying medium-range air-defence missiles, Pechora-2A, and upgrading Syria's fleet of T-72 tanks, the paper said.

SA-18 Igla-S batteries mounted on Armored Personnel Carriers. One of the most effective missiles against low-flying aircraft on the market

Moscow has completed delivery of around $500 million worth of military hardware to Damascus and will deliver a squadron of Su-27 fighter jets in coming months. The report said that Syria has already received shipments of T-90 tanks, produced by Uralvagonzavod in Nizhniy Tagil, as well as Kornet-E and Metis-M anti-tank rocket systems, manufactured by the Tula Design Bureau. The report also said that the Gagarin Aviation Production Association in Komsomolsk-na-Amure will soon be completing a Syrian order for the delivery of 30 Su-27 fighters and the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system will probably be shipped in the near future to replace outdated S-200 and S-125s..."

"...An office of Russia's state-owned arms exporter, Rosoboronexport, in Damascus is supplying the Russians' dependable customers with new guidance systems and spare parts for tanks, modern electronics systems for MIG-21 fighter jets and ammunition. Sergei Chemesov, a Putin associate from the two men's days working for the KGB in East Germany, runs the company's Moscow headquarters. In the last seven years alone, Syria's Baathist regime has ordered Russian weapons valued at more than $1 billion, including Su-27 pursuit planes, MIG-29 fighter jets and T-80 tanks. But in a departure from Soviet days, Moscow now demands cash payment.

"... But what most concerns American military experts is the Syrian army's acquisition of about 1,000 Russian Kornet-E anti-tank guided missiles. The weapon also has the Pentagon concerned, because of its ability to turn even the most state-of-the-art Bradley armored personnel carrier into burning scrap metal from distances of up to 5.5 kilometers (3.4 miles) within seconds. About 10,000 Syrian officers have received top-rate training at both Soviet and Russian military academies, with a fresh crop of pilots and air defense specialists currently attending Russia's air force academy. ..."

I don't know how reliable this analysis is, but what I really want to know is whether Syria is presumed to have T-80 and/or T-90 tanks and whether they will be included in CMSF.

Here is the link:

Syria no arms deal

[hellfish]

The Soviets used to use Tarkus as a base too. That's not exactly new.

I still have doubts that Syria ever got any of this equipment. Can someone fire up Google Earth and check it out real quick?

[MikeyD]

I was about to write a big note on this subject, but i see First Seargent's "Syria no arms deal" thread covers all the points I wanted to make rather nicely.

There's been much talk among pundits on the talk shows about the Israel-Lebanon conflict really being a proxy war between the U.S. and Iran (funny, 'cause I had thought it was just the reverse!). I think this 'proxy' talk should be expanded to include Putin's Russia as well. I think the old cold warrior is nostalgic for the bi-polar good-old-days . Not so much cold war hostility as a series of small strategic chess moves in an effort to check U.S. hegemonic ambitions.

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting stuff, but this all seems very familiar We've seen at least two such "deals" that were supposedly signed, sealed, and partially delivered only to find out a few years later that they didn't happen. Or at least not as originally reported. Have the Syrians already taken delivery of T-90s? I don't know, but supposedly they have taken delivery of T-80s several times over and yet nobody thinks they actually have any. Still, info out of Syria is sketchy at best.

So far this is our take on recent weapons:

1. AT-13 and AT-14 ATGMs are absolutely in Syria's posession. We already thought that, but seeing them in Lebanon confirms this beyond any doubt.

2. RPG-29, same as above.

3. Large quantities of modern small arms built around the 5.45 round. This seems to have been one of the parts of previous arms deals that actually went through.

4. Some new anti-air missile systems. We don't care about these since we're abstracting AA fire.

5. A handful of BMP-3s. Probably only enough for the recon elements of the Republican Guard Armor Division. We aren't going to include the BMP-3.

6. Italian upgrades to the T-72m. Still looking for details, but apparently the upgrades are gunnery related only.

7. Strong cellphone networks.

8. Modern night vision equipment in limited quantities.

9. Probably some amount of body armor. Enough, at least, for hand picked Special Forces units.

Steve

[hellfish]

If BFC didn't hold such disdain for "What Ifs" I'd look forward to T-80s, T-90s and BMP-3s in an expansion pack.

[Blofeld]

Steve, you neatly avoided answering the question

Is the T-80/90:

A) definitely out, because you don't think Syria has any or it's too late to get them into the game anyway if you want to ship before 2008; or

definitely in, because you think Syria probably has them or it would be cool to watch them brew up; or

C) probably not in, but may be included if you get more reliable info; or

D) no comment.

[Holo]

And that was exactly the whole point of starting this thread...so, Steve, T-80/T-90?

[rune]

No, unless someone can show that Syria beyond a resonable doubt has received them.

Rune

[Blofeld]

Originally posted by rune:

No, unless someone can show that Syria beyond a resonable doubt has received them.

Rune

That's what I thought, but it does not hurt to ask. Thanks.

[akd]

Originally posted by rune:

No, unless someone can show that Syria beyond a resonable doubt has received them.

Rune

Would the "beyond a reasonable doubt" criteria be the same as, say, that applied to intelligence on Iraqi WMD programs?

j/k

[Kwazydog]

Ill add that its possible that they will be seen in an expansion pack though, particually if we find more info of their shipment to the Syrians by that point.

[Blofeld]

Originally posted by KwazyDog:

Ill add that its possible that they will be seen in an expansion pack though, particually if we find more info of their shipment to the Syrians by that point.

:eek: happy days are here again... :cool:

you know we will hold you to that, don't you.

[LongLeftFlank]

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

The setting for CM:SF is 2007 Syria after a coup removes the current Assad government. I do not wish to go into the specifics of the backstory at this time, but the premise is that UN is called upon to remove the illegitimate regime. Support comes from all major nations and nearly all within the Middle East region.

In light of the above, I doubt there'd be Russians still there in the game scenario.

Since I doubt anyone on this board thinks there's a ghost of a chance that the US would invade while Assad was still in power (better the devil you know), Russian troop presence would seem largely a moot point.

[rudel.dietrich]

The sources I have at work say that a deal has been worked out but since the Syrians are in so much debt that no deliveries have been made.

They do say however that a platoon of T-80U tanks have been delivered for evaluation/training purposes.

That is reliable human intelligence.

Also my sources say that Syria have received 'well under' 15,000 AK-74s of all types.

Most of those have gone to special forces units and heavy weapons crews and only 1 mech division have been outfitted with the new weapon.

It says that the 5.45mm RPK LMG is not in widespread services besides with the speical forces units and guards and paratrooper units.

The 7.62mm RPK LMG is still the main squad based LMG.

I hope from Steves post that they do not make the mistake (at least according to my sources) of making the AK-74 the primary Sytian rifles.

By my accounts only three small sections of the Syrian military use that rifle

Special forces

Guards units

Paratroopers

Heavy weapons units

BY and large the AK-47 is still main battle rifle of the Syrian military.

Interestingly enough the main battle rifle of Hezbolah sqauds besides the AK-47 is the H&K G3

I hope this is modeled in the game.

[Battlefront.com]

The 2001 deal which Rudel is thinking of for sure got stuck because of the debt issue. Very little happened. The new development appears to be a work around for Russia's "cash and carry" policy.

AKM-47 (modernized AK-47) is the standard weapon of the Syrian forces in CM:SF. Our sources agree that the 5.45 variants are proportionally small compared to the older 7.62 models. That means "special" units will have the newer weapons and everybody else will have older ones.

The same applies to things like RPGs and ATGMs. The run of the mill Syrian units will have things like RPG-7Vs, AT-3 MkII, and AT-4 systems for the most part. Special units will have RPG-29s, AT-13s, AT-14s, and other goodies.

Syria only has enough money to keep a small portion of its force slightly behind the times. The bulk are WAY behind the times.

Rudel, if you have any info on how Syrian Army units are organized, please let me know. I'm still in a position where I have to guess!

Steve

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

Rudel, if you have any info on how Syrian Army units are organized, please let me know. I'm still in a position where I have to guess!

Steve

Define what you need and I will dig into it and ask around the office.

The ME is not the area I work in so I have to borrow and ask my way to the info I get.

[Battlefront.com]

I need TO&E down to the individual man, including equipment. I have official Soviet TO&E down to that level, so if they are still organized that way then I don't need much besides a clear indication of what the Squad looks like (there are about three possibilities). I can figure out the rest from there.

If they are instead organized along modern Russian types or uniquely Syrian, I need detailed information.

Of course I expect that there will be differences, such as "Republican Guards are organized like THIS and the 3rd rate Independent Infantry Brigades are organized like THAT".

Thanks!!

Steve

[rudel.dietrich]

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

I need TO&E down to the individual man, including equipment. I have official Soviet TO&E down to that level, so if they are still organized that way then I don't need much besides a clear indication of what the Squad looks like (there are about three possibilities). I can figure out the rest from there.

If they are instead organized along modern Russian types or uniquely Syrian, I need detailed information.

Of course I expect that there will be differences, such as "Republican Guards are organized like THIS and the 3rd rate Independent Infantry Brigades are organized like THAT".

Thanks!!

Steve

I will see what I can do.

I feel bad however perhaps having so much influence on a game that so many will play!

I will try and pass on as accurate information as I can and leave out what is even slighty unconfirmed

[Battlefront.com]

Hey, we've done far more with far less from just one person before. Uhm, like me for example Basing major game decisions on scant information is, unfortunately, something we are very familiar with.

Steve

[Vergeltungswaffe]

Ya' pays yer money and ya' takes yer chances.

[Blofeld]

This may be irrelevant, but it shows the organization of a typical Iraqi infantry brigade down to the squad level in 1991.

I don't know how closely this matches up with Soviet TO&E, but it would give an indication whether Arab armies stick closely to the Soviet model.

from:

Winning in the Desert II