The Invasion of Iran-An ArchDuke Ferdinand Moment!.

[Retributar]

There is a great likely-hood of an attack on Iran by SpringTime!. It's also likely that if it does indeed take place, that it could make WW1 look like 'a Walk in the Park!'.

At this moment a 3rd Carrier group is steaming toward's the Hormuz Straits!, Patriot Missile Batteries are/have been allocated to friendly neighboring nation's, and 21,500 more troop's are going to Iraq, even though common sense tells you that these additional troop's will not be able to make any real difference in BagDad!. So what are they really for?, maybey to help control a Shiite rampage when Iran is attacked? [since Iran is mostly Shiite].

Anyway, this situation, if it does happen could escalate into WW3, im not being far-fetched!.

So finally, if someone is interested in doing a 'Current-MOD!', perhap's this is your cup of tea?.

Added Jan-17_2007

[ January 17, 2007, 08:44 PM: Message edited by: Retributar ]

[Minty]

Ha Ha, WWIII beckons and what is the reaction? would make a good mod!!

Wouldn't worry anyway, Iran is always easy, they don't even have an army when you DOW them anyway

[Moonslayer]

Originally posted by Minty:

Wouldn't worry anyway, Iran is always easy, they don't even have an army when you DOW them anyway

lol... now that is funny

[Retributar]

I just found out recently that Iran has a Army or can quickly muster an Army of 1,000,000 soldiers.

They also have a huge allotment of 'SilkWorm' missiles, such as the one that destroyed the British Warship in the Falklands war.

And as well as a huge stockpile of regular Missiles that can strike Israel.

I do not know what else they have, but i would assume that the Russian's & Chinese have been providing them with a wide variety of updated weapon's for all occassion's!.

The Attack on Iran im sure will not be a ground assualt...like Iraq was, instead it will be an Air-Attack with Low Yield Nuclear Bunker Buster bombs to destroy Iran's Nuclear Facilities,...which i think are mostly exclusivly UNDERGROUND!.

[Guest Mike]

Silkworms were not used in the Falklands war - the missiles that hit various British warships were Exocets.

Silkworms are much larger with a 1.75 TONNE warhead instead of the 165 kilos of the exocet!

[TaoJah]

If the US attacks Iran the "war" will be easily won, the Iranian army is pretty much worthless.

But the remains of the US' reputation in the world will be totally ruined, including in the Middle East allies Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Even more important, as a British politician said last week and what seems to be the sentiment in Europe, it will lead to a much more independent course of Europe towards the US. Probably leading to a European army despite the US strong objections to it.

From a global point of view, a war in Iran is the last thing the US need.

But the Republicans need something to get votes and a war always makes a good Republican election. There is nothing that gets their votes out as easy as pointing to some muslims and say "they're evil, we'll bomb them and if you don't agree, you're one of them".

[ChrisND]

After their performance during the 1980's, I'm not too worried about Iran being able to inflict much damage to the U.S. forces without using a nuke or an improbable surprise attack. The other middle eastern countries and their populaces, however, well that's another story.

[Night]

Iran's military does not pose an extreme danger to the U.S. but it is more advanced then most give them credit for. Not only have the purchased all kinds of advanced and world-class weapons like the silkworm from China, but they have an active and powerful arms industry that builds ever more advanced weapons of Iranian design or modified Russian design. Now most of their military-industrial power might be destroyed early on, but some will survive and we could be talking high-losses for any Western Attack.

[Guest Mike]

Originally posted by TaoJah:

If the US attacks Iran the "war" will be easily won, the Iranian army is pretty much worthless.

In what terms?

Iran is not Iraq - it has more than a relatively fertile "strip" along which the vast majority of inhabitants live - it is a dispersed country, it has mountains as well as lowlands.

It does not have a large segment of the population that will co-operate like the Iraqi Kurds did.

And it is bigger than Iraq.

Iran would be a nightmare for US forces - the ambushes of supply convoys would be an order of magnitude worse than they were in Iraq - blocked mountain passes can delay the best forces for considerable time.

US forces might be able to reach Teheran, but IMO they'd be like the British in Afghanistan in 1841 - far too few, and at the end of a long supply line that they can't keep open.

[Retributar]

Stalin's Organist!...

Thank's for the correction, you are right, the Argentinian's used 'Exocets' NOT 'Silkworm' Missiles!. I was drinking an 'Old English Porter' at the time of that writing, so i forgot about the Exocet.

[arado234]

Lets not forget that china has a vested interest in iran(the petrolium pipeline).They might just want to ptotect it.The chinese and russians might step in and then the you know what will really hit the fan.

[Liam]

Military Expenditures

Dollars: $6.2 billion (2005)

Percent of GDP: 1.1% (2005)

Military Manpower

Active troops: 545,000 (8th)

Total troops: 12,285,000 (1st)

That is a high conscription rate, something like Vietnam's. I bet most of them are Gun Totin' 14 year old boys like they threw up against Iraq during the 80s war...

They wouldn't last 1 week vs the US Military. Why? The USA mantains the highest Vehicle to man ratio in the world. This is essentially a mobile unit, fast, powerful and state of the art. A Majority of the Non-European Adversaries probably are outdated 1960s equipment at best, and more than likely still WW2...

Sort of like when SC2 Germany invades Greece.. The Greeks only can rely on the fact it's too expensive for the Axis to bother... Otherwise 6 German Units will plunder them in a game turn if they are setup right! It is quite possible Germany can conquor every Minor At the Same time in Game Terms as the US could do to the World without Nuclear Weapons..

[Night]

I cannot see how occupying Iran could be harder then Japan or Germany... both of those countries were VERY die hard and both were ultimatly pacified with relativly little resistince once offical hostilities ended.

I also feel Iraq would be pacified if Iran and Syria were not sending actual people and weapons in to disrupt the U.S.

Prehaps we will have to start carpet bombing again. If the population centers do not wish to comply then bomb them, I know it sounds harsh and it is easier said then done to kill women and children, but it is a lot better then fighting street to street against a hostle populus Stalingrad style.

Overall I simply cannot see how Iran could be tougher then Germany, but then again Germany was fighting two fronts. I would be in favor of a month straight bombing and bombardment. All the while send in small recon teams to scout out bunkers and other defences hard to spot from the air and mark them for attack. We can do a lot of wearing down since time is on our side, not theirs.

The big problem would be SAM sites. Anyone with a slight idea of what they are talking about must realize Iran probally has more SAM missles then troops. They vary in effectivness... esp. against the most advanced fighters in the world... but still it won't be total air supremacy.

America now a day's has one major problem and that is numbers. The army that defeated Germany was in the multiple millions and backed by powerful allied armies. Currently we really would gather what, half a million? Our equipment is very complicated and hard to produce so any serious losses might leave us impotent for some time.

Only our air power and concentrated and extended bombing capaigns will reduce Iran enough for a full scale invasion without massive losses. Otherwise you will have to fight hard to every mile and it isn't exactly a small country..

[Ottosmops]

Normal Dude,

I certainly don't want to interfere in US domestic policies, but would you please enlighten an uninformed foreigner, what's wrong with the ladies on your list?

Rosie O'Donnell

Nancy Pelosi

Barbera Streisand

Jane Fonda

Hillary Clinton

Who is Rosie O'Donnell?

I know the other four women, and despite their advanced age, it seems to me, they are still good in form.

If they are the 'kin of the Anti-Christ', I wouldn't have an objection to be a devil thirty years ago.

[Minty]

Stop getting so excited. The US won't invade Iran for about a zillion reasons. Apart from their being no good reason too, ( except for WMD and i've heard that before ) Bush barely has the political strength to authorise 20,000 extra men to Iraq.

Could the US invade Iran? Of course it could but only if there was the will of the american people for another war and the will to lose thousands more boys and fathers. That's not there so there will be no war. That's what makes the US a much greater nation that Iraq or Iran where leaders can wage war against the people's wishes.

[SeaMonkey]

Iran just got an inventory of new parts for its F-14s from who else, the only other country that has/had F-14s. More oversight, corruption.

Don't worry US won't tackle Iran as at breakfast we were discussing this issue and since it seems the new cereal was suspect, we got an idea.

"Let's get Mikey", err I mean Israel. No one likes them anyway, they are warmongers, agitators and just downright mean.

And I'll add they got some badass weapon systems and are not afraid to use them and US will supply them more if they need them.

So who wins, Israel in this corner with US backing, or Iran in the opposite corner with Russian and Chinese help?

I'm taking/giving odds.

[TaoJah]

Originally posted by Night:

Prehaps we will have to start carpet bombing again. If the population centers do not wish to comply then bomb them

That is just plain sick, there is no other word for it...

Imagine someone telling that about the American cities and you get the idea just how sick that is : "Hey, the US does not comply with (insert treaty here) let's carpet bomb their cities until they do."

Sick.

[Flash Gordon]

Originally posted by Night:

I cannot see how occupying Iran could be harder then Japan or Germany... both of those countries were VERY die hard and both were ultimatly pacified with relativly little resistince once offical hostilities ended.

1) Both Japan and Germany had a relatively law-abiding population that pretty much put down their arms when the legal head of the government got on the radio and announced that the war was over. I doubt any recognizable legal ruler of Iran would do the same and even if someone did, I really doubt the Iranians would say, "Well, he said the war is over, I guess it's over," and put down their arms. It's simply not in their culture.

2) This law-abiding nature is why the Japanese and Germans were unlikely to take part in any widespread insurgency; the idea of a taking part in an irregular force fighting an occupation was anathema to them. That's also one of the reasons why they were so brutal when dealing with insurgencies directed against them. To them, insurgencies were ILLEGAL. Again, I doubt that's a trait shared with Iranian culture.

2) Another factor which pretty much kyboshed any idea of a wide-spread insurgency in occupied Germany and Japan was probably the spectre of the Soviet Union. In effect, the Germans and Japanese had the choice between cooperating with the occupation in rebuilding their countries or fighting the occupation forces and probably destabilizing the country enough as to facilitate a possible Soviet invasion; both the Germans and Japanese were frightened of what would happen should the Soviets invade. The Soviet Union is gone, Iraq can no longer invade (since it has problems of its own) so there is no bogeyman presenting a worse alternative to scare the locals into cooperating with an occupation force.

4) There is no precedent in which airpower by itself brought about the capitulation of a modern state. The two nuclear bombs dropped on Japan only just hammered the point home (the point having been established by the US navy and its submarine fleet's decimation of the Japanese merchant marine which pretty much strangled Japan and left it oil-starved). Carpet bombing is not going to do much good except kill a bunch of civilians and make the average Iranian dig in his heals (see bombing of England, RAF night bombing campaign of Germany, the recent Israeli air campaign against the Hezbollah, etc.) and flush a bunch of US tax payer's money down the tubes (bombs are expensive). Air power is only really effective when used to support surface operations. Everything to the contrary is merely propaganda cooked up by air forces because it's in their best interest to maintain independent air forces. The last thing the US air force wants is to be relegated to being an adjunct of the army. Which is why they've been trying to convince anyone who would listen that they could win a war all by themselves ever since WWII.

[ChrisND]

Flash... bum bum bum bum bum.....

Gordon!

[Covert Sniper]

An invasion of Iran is unlikely. The US is currently involved in a two front war. First is the Iraq situation and second the ongoing operations in Afghanastan. It seems doubtful that anyone in the Pentagon would give Bush a thumbs up to open a third front. As Commander-in-Chief, Bush may order an invasion of any county or reposition existing troops at any time, BUT he must go to Congress to increase the size of the military. (As a note, there are questions about the constitutionality of the War Powers Act, that is, when a President orders troops to a location, Congress can cut off the funding like they did in Viet Nam or start a 'stopwatch' ticking to determine when the President must order a withdrawl.) The current size of the US miltary is too small for a three front war and reserve force for fast response like a MEU. With a Democratic controlled House and Senate and Bush a lame duck, it is doubtful that any effort to increase the size of the US armed forces is likely.

BTW, even though carpet bombing sounds like some fun, the US will NEVER in our lifetimes ever carpet bomb again, just like they will never in our lifetimes detonate a nuke in anger again. There are those, however, that will do both.

My 2c,

Randy

[Guest Mike]

Originally posted by Night:

I cannot see how occupying Iran could be harder then Japan or Germany... both of those countries were VERY die hard and both were ultimatly pacified with relativly little resistince once offical hostilities ended.

The alies had millions of troops for these 2 - not a couple of hundred thousand.

[arado234]

I think we are all missing the point.I dont see china and russia allowing it.They can shoot back.Iran is a very big country compared to iraq and look at the trouble the americans are having with iraq.China is one of americas biggest trading partners.This would have a major impact on the american economy.Remember america is in debt over three trillion dollars.Good luck in funding another war.

[Retributar]

U.S. National Debt [Mostly INTEREST on Borrowing] $8,600,000,000,000.00

U.S. Trade Deficit $70,000,000,000,000.00

Consumer & Corporate Debt $40,000,000,000,000.00

China & Foreign Nations invest in U.S. Government Bonds, Etc to the tune of around $3,500,000,000.00 Per-Day until the U.S. Economy starts to weaken too much [it's happening NOW!], then they will invest less in the U.S. Dollar and invest more in Oil, Commodities, The Euro and such...to diversify their investments and keep their losses to a minimum if and when the U.S. Dollar Crashes.

http://www.usagold.com/amk/usagoldmarketupdate11507.html

George Bush's speech on Wednesday night revealed a president who was not only prepared to ignore the advice of the Baker Commission (which essentially advised a withdrawal from Iraq), but also one who was determined to escalate the war with a troop increase, and perhaps push it beyond Iraq's borders. "We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria," said the president. "And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq." On Tuesday, U.S. forces launched an attack against Islamic militants in Somalia. On Thursday, U.S. forces raided an Iranian consulate in Iraq and took five Iranians prisoner. These actions indicated that the president's speech merely announced an escalation in the Middle East which had already begun, and that the United States was willing to extend the war zone beyond Iraq's borders to Somalia and possibly Iran and Syria where Islamic militants have established havens. Once the reality sunk in, gold reacted.

Adding to the nervous mind-set in the markets, a story published in last weekend's London Times warned that Israel had drawn up secret plans for a combined air and ground attack on nuclear targets in Iran. Concerns about an Israeli attack on Iran gained momentum this past weekend when the Financial Times published an article under the headline "Spectre of nuclear neighbor leaves Israel braced for action." The article explained that 2007 would be a decisive year for "halting Tehran's perceived nuclear ambition." Iran, Israel believes, will have the bomb by year-end. Tel Aviv, this article suggests, will be forced to act in 2007 if the United States doesn't. Israeli tactics, according to the Times' report, could include the use of nuclear bunker busters that penetrate underground. (They say the radiation therefore will be contained.)

Most disturbing, the Financial Times article quotes a Princeton Islamic scholar, Bernard Lewis, as saying that Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who has threatened to annihilate Israel, "actually wanted to provoke nuclear conflict as a means of hastening the arrival of the Mahdi, the Muslim Messiah," and that "[H]e and his immediate circle really believe that the Apocalyptic age is now."

[ January 17, 2007, 09:15 PM: Message edited by: Retributar ]

[Bromley]

Not sure whether it's amusing or frightening that that apocalyptic belief is also prevalent in other countries and possibly their leaders.

Pretty sure it's frightening actually.

[Lars]

Doesn't really matter. Iran's economy is coming apart at the seams. Food prices have tripled, housing doubled, and inflation running at 30%.

http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/16483596.htm

We may have to only sit and wait.