Retreating Monster Tanks revealed (monster pictures)

[Redwolf]

[Posting deleted, as it detracted and probably isn't directly related. If Cpl Crrot's comments looks out-of-place, it's my fault]

[ December 01, 2002, 06:08 PM: Message edited by: redwolf ]

[Cpl Carrot]

Because they are no longer looking through a patch of woods.

[Panzer Leader]

I think I'm ready to kill myself now.

[Battlefront.com]

Redwolf,

Good, at least you could reproduce the retreats without shots.

In this specific situation, yup. But as stated, this doesn't concern me at all.

So, given the hit probablities and kill chances I just screenshotted about, tell me again why is it so desireable for the the ISU to pull back about 1/3rd...

Because testing proved that the ISU has a far worse chance of surviving than it does dying. I am at a total loss how you can overlook the complete data set here. When the ISU does *not* retreat it is very likely dead before the end of the turn. The best chance the ISU has of surviving is through retreat not attack. Why doesn't that register with you?

...of the times and why never for the Pz IV?

Look at the same data from the opposite point of view. The PzIV in this specific circumstance is likely to kill the ISU, so it stays put. The test data confirms this.

The logic here is quite simple:

ISU feels matchup is not good. Likely to retreat. If it doesn't, it is likely to die.

PzIV feels matchup is decent enough. Likely to stay in place. If it does, it is likely to survive and kill the ISU.

I fail to see why this is such a hard thing to grab hold of.

Now, if the PzIV always died when the ISU stood its ground, THEN there would be something worth looking into. Obviously this is not the case.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

PL,

I think I'm ready to kill myself now.

Now that is a bit drastic Instead I would suggest taking Redwolf's scenario file (not save game file), put it into the Editor, rename the ISU-122's commander name to your own, then run the tests. It will most likely result in virtual suicide

Steve

[Panzer Leader]

Hey, my favorite joke (true story) is about a comedian who goes over to do his bit in France. He's over there for a while, telling jokes, making the Frogs laugh, smoking cigars, eating escargot and I guess the high-life was getting the better of him, because one night he drops over with a heart-attack.

He wakes up the next morning in the hospital, a French doctor sitting on the edge of his bed. He says "My friend, you had a close call last night. You need to take better care of yourself."

The man thinks for a second, and says, "Well, I guess it's time I quit smoking then."

The doctor looks at him in surprise "Now now, I don't think you need to do anything drastic!"

[Redwolf]

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />So, given the hit probablities and kill chances I just screenshotted about, tell me again why is it so desireable for the the ISU to pull back about 1/3rd...

Because testing proved that the ISU has a far worse chance of surviving than it does dying. I am at a total loss how you can overlook the complete data set here. When the ISU does *not* retreat it is very likely dead before the end of the turn. The best chance the ISU has of surviving is through retreat not attack. Why doesn't that register with you?

</font>

[Sirocco]

I ran the test four times. The first time the ISU KO'd the PzKpfw IV with it's first shot, but it did have a tendency to reverse. The PzKpfw IV tended to stand it's ground, but I wonder whether that was because of it's position behind the clump of trees. Perhaps it just had nowhere better to go. However it made no attempt to traverse it's hull, which is curious in itself, given the severity of the threat. I do wonder what would have happened had the PzKpfw IV NOT had it's turret facing the ISU initially. It's certainly an interesting example, and worthy of debate.

[Andreas]

Originally posted by redwolf:

Andreas, with all respect, you are getting a little too much pride out

of the fact you have been selected a CMBB beta tester.

In this thread you are not capable of telling the M-30 L/22 howitzer

(the artillery piece) from the L/48 D-25T anti-tank gun, aka an

ISU-122 from a SU-122.

Redwolf, with all respect, I think you are getting a bit too much pride out of having a troll like Cpt.Kloss hang on your lips for every word you may utter.

With that said - don't you think that if as in my example the SU-122 with the weaker gun (which I selected by mishtake - I am not a tank grog) stays and fights, your whole argument goes out of the window a little bit? Your whole problem sounds like PEBKAS to me.

Answers on a postcard.

[Redwolf]

Originally posted by Andreas:

With that said - don't you think that if as in my example the SU-122 with the weaker gun (which I selected by mishtake - I am not a tank grog) stays and fights, your whole argument goes out of the window a little bit? Your whole problem sounds like PEBKAS to me.

If you have read any substancial part of this thread by now, then you would have spotted that this is not an issue of specific vehicle pairs always showing this behaviour.

It is one of many different specific sequences of coming up with spotting and targetting. This one sequence makes the stronger AFV chicken out, ruining its hit chances, which is a bug.

[ December 01, 2002, 05:58 PM: Message edited by: redwolf ]

[Redwolf]

Originally posted by Tarqulene:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />So, given the hit probablities and kill chances I just screenshotted about, tell me again why is it so desireable for the the ISU to pull back about 1/3rd of the times

Looks like you posted the same time I did.... If _I_ were in the ISU I'd consider retreating. Hmm... I have something to try...

and why never for the Pz IV?

It it didn't have to rotate in order to move away, it might. And I wonder if the AI is more likely to retreat a unit that was just in motion.</font>

[Joques]

I posted kill chances and hit probablities, they are in the ISU's favour overall, the "excellent" kill chance versus "fair" is more important than the 27 versus 29% kill chance. And sure enough, while the ISU dies in some of these tests, the MK IV dies as often and for my test set far more often. Coincidentally, the Mk IV dies about as more often than the ISU as the kill chances and hit probablities would suggest.

Consider this: (just an idea). Yes, both AFV have comparable chances to hit. But that chance is still pretty small, and the PzIV has a higher rate of fire. Squeezing off more shells = better chances to hit and ultimately to kill.

Besides: "why doesn't the PvIV retreat?"

Well...where should it go? Reverse over the hedge? Doesn't that incur a delay? Rotate and expose the flank? Yeah, real smart.

The ISU has a safe place to go and a good reason to do it. The PzIV has no place to go.

At least it looks that way from the screenies.

[Michael Emrys]

Originally posted by redwolf:

The woods and the turn facing of the Pz IV appear not to make any difference for the fact that the MK IV never retreats where the ISU does.

Just for the sake of completeness, why not try exchanging the two vehicles? Put the ISU where the Pz was with the German advancing to hull down, etc. Same arcs as in the previous runs.

Michael

[Andreas]

Originally posted by redwolf:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by Andreas:

With that said - don't you think that if as in my example the SU-122 with the weaker gun (which I selected by mishtake - I am not a tank grog) stays and fights, your whole argument goes out of the window a little bit? Your whole problem sounds like PEBKAS to me.

If you have read any substancial part of this thread by now, then you would have spotted that this is not an issue of specific vehicle pairs always showing this behaviour.

It is one of many different specific sequences of coming up with spotting and targetting. This one sequence makes the stronger AFV chicken out, ruining its hit chances, which is a bug.</font>

[Redwolf]

Originally posted by Joques:

Besides: "why doesn't the PvIV retreat?"

Well...where should it go? Reverse over the hedge? Doesn't that incur a delay? Rotate and expose the flank? Yeah, real smart.

The ISU has a safe place to go and a good reason to do it. The PzIV has no place to go.

Fair enough. Good question, really. I was actually think it could be it.

I tested with the Mk IV moved to this position:

Surely it can retreat out of LOS anytime it wants.

It doesn't, I ran five tests, in all of them the ISU retreated before or after firing, and the Mk IV never moved a single inch.

[Battlefront.com]

Redwolf,

This one sequence makes the stronger AFV chicken out, ruining its hit chances, which is a bug.

The only bug is in your posterior region. It is almost like you are pathalogically trying to find some sort of major problem with SOMETHING in CMBB. You tried ever so hard in the Sneak thread and (rightly) lost. You are trying it again here and (rightly) are again fighting a losing battle. Why can't you just pull back and see that you are at BEST making a mountain out of a molehill?

Now to address some more mistakes you have made:

I posted kill chances and hit probablities, they are in the ISU's favour overall, the "excellent" kill chance versus "fair" is more important than the 27 versus 29% kill chance.

As has been explained before (since CMBO days), these statistics are only ROUGH approximations. They are not anything more than that. Therefore, any argument made which uses this data, to the exclusion of other data, is simply misguided (at best).

Earlier I stated why it is a tank crew will decide to pull back. Rate of Fire is very important for a bunch of reasons. The tank crew knows that if it has a piss poor rate of fire that it is at a disadvantage against a gun that has an excellent RoF and chance of hitting/killing. Its chance of a hit or chance of a kill is irrelevant if it thinks the target (be it a tank, ATG, thinly armored SPG, etc.) if it doesn't think it will get to survive to crack off a second shot.

Remember, even at 500m a first shot kill is not guaranteed. Especially if the enemy is in cover (as the PzIV is, and the ISU is not). My money is on the higher rate of fire vehicle any day of the week, provided both have a chance of causing damage to the other. And that is the case here.

And sure enough, while the ISU dies in some of these tests, the MK IV dies as often and for my test set far more often.

Which tests? Not in mine, not in other people's, and I don't even think in yours either. In my 7 attempts I only got the ISU to hit the PzIV one time, but in the other 6 tests the PzIV scored hits on the ISU (killing it 4 times, 2 times I stopped the test). I used the same exact file you did, without altering the orders except on follow up turns. Since you did not apparently do follow up turns, I suggest that my data is more accurate. OR, instead of measuring how many times the ISU was KO'd you should calculate how many times it was hit and retreated before being hit. The PzIV can not possibly hit the ISU if it can't shoot at it now can it?

Joques,

Consider this: (just an idea). Yes, both AFV have comparable chances to hit. But that chance is still pretty small, and the PzIV has a higher rate of fire. Squeezing off more shells = better chances to hit and ultimately to kill.

Right on the money. And my tests of Redwolf's file clearly show this advantage at work. I would rather 4 tosses of a coin than 1.

Besides: "why doesn't the PvIV retreat?"

Well...where should it go? Reverse over the hedge? Doesn't that incur a delay? Rotate and expose the flank? Yeah, real smart.

The ISU has a safe place to go and a good reason to do it. The PzIV has no place to go.

This is part of the issue. The main issue is that the ISU is engaging the PzIV on unfavorable terms. It should be shooting at it from 1500m or something. In fact, I will try that out for the fun of it.

Steve

[Redwolf]

Originally posted by Michael emrys:

Just for the sake of completeness, why not try exchanging the two vehicles? Put the ISU where the Pz was with the German advancing to hull down, etc. Same arcs as in the previous runs.

I would love to do that, but it is a Quickbattle terrain which can only be loaded into another Quickbattle. A quickbattle doesn't allow you to switch sides, except manually moving everybody over.

Anybody knows a way to get the terrain into the scenario editor and/or to exchange sides in a Quickbattle with imported map?

[Tarquelne]

I just had the PzIV and the ISU "Hunt" each other in 5 test-turns. The ISU always retreated, the PzIV never retreated.... and the PzIV KO'd the ISU twice and Shocked it once. No damage to the PzIV.

BTW - This is after I removed the PzIV's Morale +1 HQ.

If the "bug" only seems to appear with certain vehicle matchups, redwolf, it might be because the bug is really a difference of opinion (or experience, or knoweldge - whatever) with regard to how effective the vehicles are against each other. In the case of this matchup the ISU's retreat and the PzIV's non-retreat seems reasonable to me. The fact that the PzIV never seems to retreat is odd, given the 50/50 split in some of my tests, but I doubt I ran the "test" enough times to discover a trend.

But I did discover that the hit and kill chance calculations are far more sensitive than I'd thought - the angle of the PzIV's hull can easily change the hit chance by ~5%, for example. Given past experiences, I think it more likely that there's some factor influencing the contest that I'm not aware of, but that the TacAI is taking into account. The PzIV and the ISU under consideration know their business, IMO.

How about another matchup with results you think questionable, redwolf? Esp. if it shows a Russian unit retreating and a German one holding fast.

[Battlefront.com]

I just ran a one turn test with 5xISUs and 5xPzIVJs. Range was 1300m or so. Both had Scattered Trees available directly behind them in case they wanted to retreat into them.

In three tests none of the tanks withdrew, except 2 ISUs with damaged guns. The PzIVs scored tons of hits but wound up doing no significant damage. By the end of the 60 seconds the following was left on the field:

PzIVs

11 KO'd

4 No Damage

ISUs

2 Gun Damage + 1 Crew Casualty

13 No Damage

This shows the ISU under more favorable conditions. At this range the PzIV only has a RARE chance of killing the ISU, but still has an decent chance of actually hitting it. The ISU, on the other hand, has a similar chance of scoring a hit and an EXCELLENT chance of killing what it hits. Provided nothing happens to it in the mean time.

The TacAI for the ISUs quite rightly decides to stay put and shrug off hits and near misses (4 and 2 in one case). The PzIV TacAIs obviously feel they have a decent enough chance of causing damage, but they can't shrug off a hit and therefore are unlikely to change their behavior before dying.

If anything can be argued here is to make the TacAI *more* likely to withdraw. Of course, this is the opposite of what Redwolf is proposing.

Well... I've got to say that I think at this point I am doing nothing more than wasting precious time arguing about something that is already preetty clearly settled. Unless someone comes up with something different, I am removing myself from this discussion. I've got better things to do than (once again) chasing down Redwolf's shadows.

Steve

[ December 01, 2002, 07:12 PM: Message edited by: Battlefront.com ]

[Redwolf]

Steve,

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

Earlier I stated why it is a tank crew will decide to pull back. Rate of Fire is very important for a bunch of reasons. The tank crew knows that if it has a piss poor rate of fire that it is at a disadvantage against a gun that has an excellent RoF and chance of hitting/killing. Its chance of a hit or chance of a kill is irrelevant if it thinks the target (be it a tank, ATG, thinly armored SPG, etc.) if it doesn't think it will get to survive to crack off a second shot.

I only complain about the cases where th ISU begins retreating before the first shot, ruinign its hit probablity by firing ont he move.

Retreating after the first shot is fine.

Remember, even at 500m a first shot kill is not guaranteed. Especially if the enemy is in cover (as the PzIV is, and the ISU is not).

No. As I said, and prooved in my screenshots, the ISU is actually in hulldown (because it stops in the seek-hulldown). It is also evident in the seperate screenshots with hit probablities. In fact there is no hint whatsoever that the ISU is not hulldown, but there is proove that it is.

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />And sure enough, while the ISU dies in some of these tests, the MK IV dies as often and for my test set far more often.

Which tests? Not in mine, not in other people's, and I don't even think in yours either. In my 7 attempts I only got the ISU to hit the PzIV one time, but in the other 6 tests the PzIV scored hits on the ISU (killing it 4 times, 2 times I stopped the test).

</font>

[Redwolf]

So now Steve is saying that the situation at 1300m is reverse, because the ISU has "excellent" and the MK IV has "rare".

Somehow that doesn't look reverse to me, the ISU had the better kill chance. Both at the short range and at the long range. So tell me again why it should retreat at the short range and not at the long range. Or why the MK IV never retreats?

P.S.: stating for the Xth time, I only want to et rid of retreat before firing. Retreat to reload is fone.

[The_Capt]

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

I just ran a one turn test with 5xISUs and 5xPzIVJs. Range was 1300m or so. Both had Scattered Trees available directly behind them in case they wanted to retreat into them.

...

Steve

I still don't get it. The ISU is staring down a tank at a range it is not comfortable (500m) with and where said tank can easily drilla hole into it. It pulls back (I think I would too). BUT at the optimum range 1300m it stays put and slugs it out...can someone explain why this is abnormal behaviour?

[Redwolf]

Originally posted by The_Capt:

I still don't get it. The ISU is staring down a tank at a range it is not comfortable (500m) with and where said tank can easily drilla hole into it. It pulls back (I think I would too). BUT at the optimum range 1300m it stays put and slugs it out...can someone explain why this is abnormal behaviour?

Because isolated tests, neither at 500 nor at 1300 meters, ever showed this bug. I could only reproduce it by importing the actual quickbattle terrain and moving everyone into the same place as it was int he actual battle incident.

[The_Capt]

Originally posted by redwolf:

</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by The_Capt:

I still don't get it. The ISU is staring down a tank at a range it is not comfortable (500m) with and where said tank can easily drilla hole into it. It pulls back (I think I would too). BUT at the optimum range 1300m it stays put and slugs it out...can someone explain why this is abnormal behaviour?

Because isolated tests, neither at 500 nor at 1300 meters, ever showed this bug. I could only reproduce it by importing the actual quickbattle terrain and moving everyone into the same place as it was int he actual battle incident.</font>

[Redwolf]

Originally posted by The_Capt:

Ok but if it only happens in one quickbattle in one instance..it isn't a bug.

It doesn't. We had several threads about this, this one the first started by me.

Armour. The ISU-122 has 90% armour quality so take the tables with a grain of salt and err on the side of caution.

This is included in the kill chance as displayed by the engine. The kill chance is still "excellent" for the ISU and "fair" for the MK IV, all armor factors included.

The Pz IVH can easily kill the ISU-122 at 500 and even 900 (I know I did it), which btw is outside what the tables say it can do.

Sure as hell it can kill it. This kill chance tells you so. But vice versa it works even better.

ROF. The L/48 was putting out three shots to the ISUs one. So you have a really bad sit for the ISU after the first shot, in fact in the tests I ran the beast pulled back after the first shot a lot and I was glad it did.

I you have read any of the recent posting, then you would have spotted that the issue here is retreat before the first shot.

Optics. The PzIVH has better optics than the ISU..which means it can expect to hit more times, with a higher ROF, with that nasty little gun of his.

See above for hit chances. They include any effect the optics might have. The hit chances are 27% for the ISU and 29% for the Pz IV.

Add all this up and I think you will find the behaviour of the ISU-122 is pretty accurate.

Well, you are a talking about retreat after the first shot to reload.

In fact I think that is fine.

Unfortunately it is not what I am talking about, which is retreat before the first shot.

[...test skipped...]

Then the third and fourth crested..the ISU stood up to them but took a couple of hits..the crew got a little rattled as flaking started and I don't blame em one bit after what they had been thru. The ISu managed to kill one more and then at 860m the last PzIVH immobilized and then KO'd my ISU.

Well, there you go. The ISU nails the Pz IVs just fine. So where is the reason for the ISU to retreat now, except for reloaing?

Now with Russian Optics and 90% armour, my ISU took on 4 PzIVs at a range which it could be hurt. It didn;t back off until misidentification OR flaking got the crew worried. It kill 3 out of 4 of the PzIVs.

Well, great. The ISU kills the MK IVs. Isn't this exactly what I am talking about? The ISU is stronger in this match, even at 500m.

So why should the ISU be so afraid of the Pz IV that it retreats without a single shot in 1/3rd of the cases int he scenario?

If you think this is unrealistic, redwolf,

But I don't. The MK IV are nailed just fine. The ISU is stronger.

The ISU only takes longer and uneccessary risks when has its funny moments of retreating before any shot.

you have little or no idea how tank crews or even people perform under fire. I personally think the PzIVs were a little too cocky (and paid for it).

Well, this is great. The Mk IVs might consider retreating, at least as much as the ISU might consider it. Shocking news!

Do you realize that this is what I am talking about for three forum pages?

The Mk IVs are the weaker AFV here, and they stay, and the stronger AFV flees before the first shot, in about 1/3rd of the cases.

I have a good shot and will kill it BUT if I miss he can easily kill me..he sees me and is swinging the gun over right now...he can shoot three times as fast as me and will probably hit me first...maybe backing up and shoot and scoot is a better idea.

Again, nobody said anything against retreat for reload. Retreat before the first shot is what happens and should not.

I think the bottom line, my friend, is fairly simple. The TacAI knows more about tank warfare than you. You should let them do their job.

Bottom line is that you didn't follow the thread.

[ December 01, 2002, 08:49 PM: Message edited by: redwolf ]