Dariuz Kowolski Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 My friend also played zapp back in 2004. he said he learn from Hombrastprin(?) how to cheat. cheating swedish scumbag??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 12, 2005 Author Share Posted June 12, 2005 Originally posted by Codename Condor: Hmm, as long as i read yer AAR i noticed something smelled real bad. That bad luck is impossible. I remember another game i played against Zapp, i had a very similar bad luck in tech (jets) while playing axis. I cant remember how many years with jets o and Zapp jets 4!!! In the game Zapp disconnected/lose conection?? at least 10 times. Yer game suffered some disconnections also so i wonder... has Zapp managed to find an anti-jets tech bug by cutting connection??????? HMMM. [/QB]You serious Condor? -> In that case, **** you! EDIT: 1) Your numbers are wrong (Terif used extreme case numbers) 2) A disconnetion BUG that only affect enemy nations Jet tech but not the 9 other techs??? What are the odds????????? Do u believe you seen a UFO too? [ June 12, 2005, 05:37 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 12, 2005 Author Share Posted June 12, 2005 Originally posted by Terif: Chance for Germany to still be at lv 0 jets is now less than 0.002% - that means this happens once every ~50000 games... I do not believe those numbers. You got Paris in November 1940 and your first Jet advance in November 1942. Each years is roughly 12.5 turns per player. Means you had 25 turns of research. Say for a simple example you bought 5 chits Jets right away and kept it 2 years (not counting any catchup effect). 5*5=25% meaning 75% of no advance. 0.75^25 (turns)=0.000752=0.0752% or once every ~129 games The error margin is first the catchup effect that started in June 1941 but also that Axis did not have 5 chits all the way from Paris, doubt it. How did you come up with your probability anyway? [ June 12, 2005, 04:14 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 What's going on? HombrePlin sniffing some rearend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 12, 2005 Author Share Posted June 12, 2005 Darius Kowolski must be someone in disguice. He registered June 11 2005, turn up on forum talking about hacking the demo, talking about that SC2 should have depths in the Oceans, talking about entering in the tourney (ALONE in a new group C from which he automatically should qualify) and now he talks about that his "friend" knew Hombre Plin. Strange coincidences Hey Darius, who is your friend? How did your friend know Hombre Plin? I sense when someones goal is just to create havoc. [ June 12, 2005, 01:54 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 Zapp are you Darius? Terif? Kuni? Hombre Plin? Who is Darius? Maybe Darius is just Darius? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 Who is this Lucky dude? Lucky_beaver? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 12, 2005 Author Share Posted June 12, 2005 Originally posted by Kuniworth: If you win Zapp, would it be bacause of RAI? Since RAI is not a game killer and often require extensive skills in all areas of the game I could say NO, but since RAI suits my aggressive air style I could also say YES. In Sweden Yes=Ja and No=Nej. That means I say "Nja". Hope that answers your question. But if i just cut the bull**** I could easier explain that IMO RAI improved my chances but only that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 12, 2005 Author Share Posted June 12, 2005 Originally posted by Terif: Chance for Germany to still be at lv 0 jets is now less than 0.002% - that means this happens once every ~50000 games... I figured out that example now. You have been using the extreme case for your calculations: EXTREME CASE: 1) L2-L0=2% bonus catchup 2) 5 chits from fall of France to when u got your first Tech (November 1940-November 1942) 7*5=35% and that means 65% chance of failure each turn. 2 years is 25 Axis turns. 0.65^25=0.00002.1=0.002% or once in ~48000 Notable is that the 0.002% is the same result that Terif got in his example. Not a coincidence. ANOTHER MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO: Say we use a medium of 3 chits for 2 years and +1 catchup instead of +2. Meaning 3*6%=18 per turn and 82% of failure. 0.82^25=0.00700=0.7% or once in ~143 CONCLUSION: Just compare 1 in 48000 and 1 in 143 what HUGE differences they make. So Terif's bad luck could very well have been 1 in 200 or 1 in 1000 but no way near the extreme case number he got. those 1 in 200 or 1 in 1000 happens all the time in SC since u have not only jets but 10 different techs for 6 major nations. For instance, u know the games where u get L4 AT with some nation in like 15-25 turns. What are the odds? very small, but playing a game at leist some tech for some nation would be way off schedule. Happens every game. [ June 12, 2005, 05:46 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jon_j_rambo Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 Yodl caught in "fuzzy math"? Is he being a politician? What's going on with this game? The world is watching! "We are watching you" --- from the movie Congo. "Every Move You Make" --- The Police. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kuniworth Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 Its something fishy here. But is it the maths or jets? Stay tune for another episode of Inspector Gadget vs Dr Claw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terif Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 Hmm, I had not soo much time during your phone call for calculations so it was not an exact calculation but I would say a not too far away approximation - if you call it extreme then your 1:143 is the other extreme : - a year in SC is 15 turns and not 12.5 - to be exact: no jet tech despite chits in it was 30 turns (not 25) (fall of France (October 13, 1940) vs first jet tech (November 1, 1942)) - Germany started with 3 chits that´s right, but increased it after some turns without success to 5 chits. - so that it is not 5x7% for 25 turns is already included in the calculation However, the exact number is not really important (For sure it is more than extremely unlikely - and if I would calculate it together with the above average US/russian readiness increases and the late minor joining... ). At least it is a "nice" probability and will hopefully (and statistically..) not occur again in the next 10000 games or so . Concerning the other issue: Your public tests some time ago with Hombreplin´s cheat program how to cheat during TCP is not really increasing the trust especially combined with your obvious will to beat me at all costs - be it via smack talk in the forum or in the game... But that doesn´t mean you really did it and I really hope you had enough honour not to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 13, 2005 Author Share Posted June 13, 2005 I tested in hotseat. 29 turns is 363 days and roughly a year i.e 14.5 turns per players and year. Terif is right, it is 30 turns. Say we use 30 turns, 4 chits average and +1 catchup average. 6*4=24. 100-24=76 The prob (no jet advance for germany for the 2+ years): 0.76^30=0.02657% or one in ~3800 So, what number is that closer to. My extreme 1 in 143 or Terifs 1 in 50.000? This things happen all the time, not in jet tech in particular but in any of the 6 countries 10 tech areas. Sometimes someone get absurd AT, sometimes someone get absurd long range and sometimes it happens in jets. Chances are very small for each particular case but combined it is inevitable that some **** is gonna happen sooner or later. [ June 13, 2005, 03:41 AM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 13, 2005 Author Share Posted June 13, 2005 I knew there would be biotching in case I would win so this means I am close to winning. MPP cheat, chit cheat??? PBEM reload cheat? and also the more bisarre "roll cheat" and now "disconnection cheat". I can give away my password after the game to show I did not cheat with any MPP or Chits. Concerning the PBEM reload cheat, everyone is a suspect not just me. The thing is, I ALSO lose games due to bad TECH LUCK. I lost games against Rambo, Avatar, Dragonheart and Terif due to bad tech luck. Games that I would have won. Can I really say "games I should have won"? What about in hockey? "We lost the game because the referee was such a biotch". Is sports not about taking a defeat and bury the excuses? If someone has hardcore evidence of something fishy I recon they should speak up. Without it, I do not like public speculations about cheating that cannot be proofed either way because the result is that ppl think "he is abit guilty". How am I to clear THAT reputation? I AM TIRED OF THE LOSERS WHO DO NOT KNOW THE RULES OF SC AND STILL THINK THAT THINGS ARE FISHY. If just Terif saying "this is 1 in 50.000" means that it takes 5 seconds for some OTHER dude to swallow the bait (without second thought) and jump at the chance of expressing "I am a loser and therefore I have conspiration theories" then it is sad for the sake of intellect. Maybe the CIA are in on it too? Hah! Nuff Said :cool: [ June 13, 2005, 07:57 AM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hellraiser Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 i once hotseated a game - germany got lvl 1 jets in 1944 having 5 chits from late 1940 ... Once in a while this kind of things happen and if one side retains tech advantage for a certain period (exactly when they can use that advantage), game is almost over. It happened to me in the PL tourney - i played a flawless cookie cutter but got jets 2 in 1943 - it was impossible to fight on either front with air, allies were superior in jets in west (+2 techs) and equal then superior in east. I am very sure that techs can win a game (abnormal luck, allright, but it happens) regardless of the opponent skill. There maybe situations like these which not even Terif can overpass. You can fight your opponent well but you can't fight your own bad luck. Not to minimize the merits of Zapp (in case he wins) but I doubt this situation will occur in the next games of the best out of 5 series. GG for both of you guys - to Terif for fighting a game which a lot of players would have already quit and to Zapp for being able to maximize the delaying effects of this aggro allied strategy. @Terif - RAI is risky but has a lot more potential that double HQ gamble; and i can say the risk is lower. It is a bit more flexible but needs a certain early situation to be able to fully exploit it. [ June 13, 2005, 03:37 AM: Message edited by: hellraiser ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonheart Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 @Hellraiser ...and we both meanwhile know the perfect answer to RAI , but still provided at least average rolls and not to much bad luck. The best strategy and skill is useless if you get ****ed by bad rolls ..especially with RAI you are doomed then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hellraiser Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 and btw - both players should refrain from accusing eachother without having solid evidence, ok? @ Terif - you know, **** happens...even to you, right? Ok, if this **** happen during the whole series games, then there may be a situation. @Zapp - quit stirring the **** up, allright? You know Terif is sensitive to this kind of 'someone saying 1 out of 50k' ****, especially when it comes from your part - you got issues in the past, just keep it clean this time - do your job best and try to beat his ass in a honourable manner. No smack talk, just play - you try to prove the potential of a new strategy against the best opponent out there. Do it, ppl are eager to see the results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sombra Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 Luck still plays a big part in Sc. Regadless what Terif says once in awhile things get upsetting / frustrating nail bitting, screaming. I thought I had Hellraiser in the bag after a slightly botched RAI. Things happen: very late minors, early USA, JT4 for the allies before barbarossa and the rusians got to JT3 in 3-4 rounds into barbarossa. Stll the Axis fights on but the table is turned. Regardless I know that Hellraiser is a very very dangerous enemy and the bids to play the axis have reached a level where luck can be the final push for axis into defeat. At least this is true for opponents of equal skill. Hellraiser at least is honorable opponent and feels ashamed where I would be gloating / laughing all the time. Terif even if you loose : Series out 5 . You were confident to win the first 3 games in a row though one down 4 to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 13, 2005 Author Share Posted June 13, 2005 Originally posted by hellraiser: and btw - both players should refrain from accusing eachother without having solid evidence, ok? @ Terif - you know, **** happens...even to you, right? Ok, if this **** happen during the whole series games, then there may be a situation. @Zapp - quit stirring the **** up, allright? You know Terif is sensitive to this kind of 'someone saying 1 out of 50k' ****, especially when it comes from your part - you got issues in the past, just keep it clean this time - do your job best and try to beat his ass in a honourable manner. No smack talk, just play - you try to prove the potential of a new strategy against the best opponent out there. Do it, ppl are eager to see the results I did not blame Terif for making an error calculation. Instead I blamed the Bozos that believe anything they see and anything they read on forum and use the sole text on forum as their evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 13, 2005 Author Share Posted June 13, 2005 I just checked the last 3 games I played with Terif. He was Axis in all 3 of them. One was a quick affair (short game i.e no tech factor). the other two had Germany getting L1 Jets August 1941 in one game and September 1941 in the other. What I have noticed when playing Terif is that he gets Tech late for Germany very often (expecially when he is delayed in France or when playing top players). That must mean he invest late in tech and use his MPP to secure the board first so that the neutral conquering does not get delayed. So, I am sure if I stat all my games against Terif or all my games against anyones, that my distribution looks like everyone elses. I have cracked but also been headcracked by Jet Techs. Normally Germany get L1 Jets before barbarossa but in some of the games they do not and in rare cases they have to play several turns into barbarossa without. Do I really need to dig out more examples (this is getting ridiculous)? BTW, anyone could just search on forum for "aar terif zapp" and see for themselves. Nicholson: Are We Clear? Cruise: yes... Nicholson: I Said, ARE WE CLEAR!? Cruise: Crystal :cool: (A Few Good Men) [ June 13, 2005, 07:58 AM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hellraiser Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 @Sombra - true, you had that game 100%; now with allied insane techs, game is open again; And, true, there is no glory in winning such games, especially when I know that ONLY techs saved my ass - I played like **** and I admit it - you know sometimes I go nuts and risk everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zappsweden Posted June 13, 2005 Author Share Posted June 13, 2005 Originally posted by Terif: Concerning the other issue: Your public tests some time ago with Hombreplin´s cheat program how to cheat during TCP is not really increasing the trust especially combined with your obvious will to beat me at all costs - be it via smack talk in the forum or in the game... But that doesn´t mean you really did it and I really hope you had enough honour not to do it. Specifically that Hombre **** was about MPP cheat. If that was what you meant, sure I give u my password after the game and you can check. You say you save every turn of every game, so u can control check it. I would also want to get your password and do a checking of your claims on buying chits. You might remember it wrong, maybe you did not buy 3 chits right away after Paris plunder. The "increased to 5 chits after some turns" could mean anything from 3 turns to 15 turns. I would like to see that myself. [ June 13, 2005, 08:00 AM: Message edited by: zappsweden ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sombra Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 Originally posted by hellraiser: @Sombra - true, you had that game 100%; now with allied insane techs, game is open again; And, true, there is no glory in winning such games, especially when I know that ONLY techs saved my ass - I played like **** and I admit it - you know sometimes I go nuts and risk everything Na, don´t be shy, you played very very well, after the beginning. You surprised me with this northern counteroffensive in Rusia for example. Though if you win you will have earned it. Still the game is not over yet. The champion in luck is Mr . Haudgen he is the nemisis of DH, HR and myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragonheart Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 Thought this is an AAR Tread? It turns out to be more than that. Is that at all will? Just wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sombra Posted June 13, 2005 Share Posted June 13, 2005 Originally posted by Dragonheart: Thought this is an AAR Tread? It turns out to be more than that. Is that at all will? Just wondering Otternasen, Lerchenzungen!!!!! right now it is a break in one of the most anticipated games of the SC season. Its normal that all kind of comments drop in. I think this match is a good argument for the so called spectator mode ) Or a replay after the match though that all the interessted people could download the classic matches for a review Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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