The Luck Factor

[moosehead]

Anyone have something like this happen to them. Your doing well in a game and then a shreck comes running out of the woods into the open and picks off one of your tanks at 160 M. The whole time being shot at by 5 squads. Then turns around and goes back into hiding.

This and other bad luck experiences seem to occur far too frequently in a game when your the one in the lead.

Im wondering if the game has some sort of "luck" percentage, which increases as your doing poorly. This maybe to help even things out. Also you ever notice the casulties seem to be very close, for both sides, most of the time.

I get the feeling the game tries to keep things even as one player starts kickin butt.

I get very nervous from now on once I start to get an advantage. I keep seeing shrecks out of the corner of my eye!

Any one else agree, or am I just paranoid.

[Guest Rommel22]

No, you just suck!

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Rommel22s Kampfgruppe site:

http://rommel22diarys.homestead.com/MyPage1.html

"I saw 5 Germans walking down the side of the road, so I followed them for a few yard to get closer. Then I shot them! Later that day I found out the war has been over for a few weeks." - someone

[ADAman]

Wouldn't know, never have had the advantage.);

More seriously, I've noticed the "luck" splitting about down the middle. If the designers have done some equalizing, it's probably subtle enough only they could tell you for sure. I would personally tend to doubt it since that would change this from a tactical sim into something else.

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Air Defense: Shoot 'em down, sort 'em out on the ground (AKA - if it flies, it dies)

[Sten]

There is no "luck factor" as such.

That only leaves your second explanation...

Sten

[jasoncawley@ameritech.net]

You are just being fooled by randomness. Randomness does not look random. Patterns appear in it and seem to be streaks. In the long run, all the different "rolls" tend to balance out. But if a few key rolls in key incidents are more important than others (like tank-duel shots), the result will break this way or that.

Not just true in CM incidentally...

[Abbott]

In a recent QB Meeting engagement (I played Axis) during setup an accident in the ground I noticed left me open to an attack on my left flank. If my opponent spotted this on the map it could be a problem for me. Points allocated for the OOB's were small so the only asset I had available to cover this approach was a 251/9.

The track was hidden well and sure enough about turn three some 500 yards distant an American vehicle started poking its nose out. My 251/9 got off 4 shots before the American vehicle spotted it and took it out with a 37mm round. Then went on (two turns later) to take a Stug III out with a flank shot at short range.

I lost my 2nd. Stug III to a frontal shot from a Stuart! Argh...bad luck. After that my opponents armor had a field day zipping all around the battlefield. My infantry center was taking a beating with no armor support. Bad luck indeed!

However I am pleased to say I was able to pull out a hard fought minor victory by sticking with the Infantry fight in the center. Nothing went my way in that battle.

Some days you get the bear. Some days the bear gets you.

[Guest Napoleon1944]

I played plenty of games were each shot missed while my opponent hit. Some games I never even registered a hit. Tend to think there is a hidden bonus for one side or the other. I had a schreck run out and land one shot at at Damlier moving away from him on a road fast at 200+ meters at a 7 o'clock position. The odds of this were almost impossible. From that point on my opponent was disgruntled with the game. This has happened to me in many games, sometimes you just can't win no matter how well you play. I call it the unreality factor, not luck.

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The only enemy I fear is nature.

-Napoleon

[gunnergoz]

Does anyone know if there is a randomizer or seed generator used in CM? Just curious.

[Vanir]

This has happened to me in many games, sometimes you just can't win no matter how well you play. I call it the unreality factor, not luck.

But you should call it luck, because that's what it is.

This is something that's has been bothering me for a while. So many of the complaints you see here about the game are from people who come to believe it is rigged because they see very rare or unusual events more frequently than they think is right.

I think you should read Jason's post above carefully. And to that I will add this:

Although the odds of any given rare event happening in any given game are by definition (very) small, the odds of some rare event happening are much larger. The larger the number of possible events, the larger the odds become of at least one of them occuring in a given time frame (a single game, for example). There are a lot of rare events that can take place in most CM games. Rare events happen all the time both in real life and in the game. If you see the same rare event (shrecks hitting moving vehicles at 200m, bogging on dry ground, whatever) popping up a lot, then you may have a problem. But that is not the case.

As far as there being a hidden modifier in the game to favor one side or the other, that is plain rediculous. Why would BTS sabotage their own product like that? There is no evidence of it. If such a thing existed then one side or the other would be "unable to hit anything" in every game. This is not the case. Having games now and then where everything goes wrong for one side or the other is normal and is to be expected, just like we all have days where nothing goes right for us.

As Jason pointed out, randomness does not appear to be random until you zoom out and see the much larger picture. What appear to be meaningfull patterns are just an illusion, like flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads 7 times in a row and saying "something is wrong with this coin". It is not until you flip it a 100 times that you see it for the rare event that it is, and realize the coin is just fine.

Anyone who sees an event like a shreck hitting a moving vehicle at 200m (quite rare but not impossible) and then becomes disgruntled with the game is simply showing that they have no understanding of how probability works (or is a sore loser. Take your pick).

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What a bunch of horsecrap. -Steve

[This message has been edited by Vanir (edited 03-15-2001).]

[scooleen]

My brother and I have a term for the computer evening the score. Getting Maddened. Madden football was the cheatin-ist game in Genesis history. You would be up by a couple of TD's and then suddenly the CPU starts returning kicks to the endzone.

LOL

[Sten]

Napoleon1944, scooleen and moosehead,

let me state this very clearly:

There is no 'equalizing' or hidden luck factor in CM.

As Vanir and Jason said, it is all just very rare events happening and these events can occur on both sides.

ten

[CrapGame]

That's why they called it "John Madden Comeback Football"

[aka_tom_w]

The luck factor is HUGE in this game.

BUT it is really no different than rolling the dice in ASL, Panzer Leader, Tobruk or RISK!

or any other board game.

I would be interested to know if the random seed generator has anything to do with the clock or the time that the game is played? Suggesting perhaps that at some given times, you might actually be "luckier" than at other given times.

I would really like to know a little bit more about the random number generator in the game.

There are somthings in the game that pop up, that are coded as a 1% (1 in 100) chance of happening, like armour weak spot penetrations (maybe they are 2-3 %) that seem to come up alot more than 1%.

I would like to know ALOT more about what the real odds are for certain random events (bogging? better yet Unbogging? or that KT gearstripping noise breakdown?), and what generates the random number result. But thats only because I'm just plain curious, no other good reason at all really.

-tom w

[This message has been edited by aka_tom_w (edited 03-15-2001).]

[chrisl]

Originally posted by aka_tom_w:

I would be interested to know if the random seed generator has anything to do with the clock or the time that the game is played? Suggesting perhaps that at some given times, you might actually be "luckier" than at other given times.

Even if the random number generator isn't all that great, there are so many calls to it for so many different things that it's unlikely to have an effect detectable at the game level (unless it's really appallingly bad).

Someone (I can't remember who) once posted that good tactics is the ability to reduce the effect of bad luck on your plan (or something like that).

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"If you can taste the difference between caviar on a cracker and ketchup on a Kit-Kat while blindfolded, you have not had enough aquavit to be ready for lutefisk." (stolen from some web page about lutefisk)

[Jasper]

Originally posted by moosehead:

You're doing well in a game . . .

More accurately - "You think you're doing well in a game." Nothing I love more than to make my opponent feel really good about himself/herself. During the first portion of an encounter. I try and make the second half a little more challenging.

I read something to the effect that a plan with only one course to victory is a poor plan. One time I was playing a Mexican-American war battle, as the defender I had a few cannon, poor infantry and lots of decent cavalry. My opponent had lots of good infantry, poor cavalry and a few cannon. As he approached he saw nothing but a few cannon on the top of a ridge. Silent. His plan was to charge the guns with his cavalry and mop-up with his infantry. He advanced his cavalry, but before they could get inside of my cannon range - the cannon fired and the volunteer cavalry decided to go home. He was totally discouraged by this, and spent the rest of the encounter having his infantry wallow about being plinked to death by cannon.

Sounds a little bit like a guy that lost a tank and became a little discouraged?

[CavScout]

Originally posted by Rommel22:

No, you just suck!

Is the intent to run off all new forum members?

[Dogface]

Originally posted by moosehead:

Anyone have something like this happen to them. Your doing well in a game and then a shreck comes running out of the woods into the open and picks off one of your tanks at 160 M. The whole time being shot at by 5 squads. (at over 160m more like 180 to 200m for the 5 squads) Then turns around and goes back into hiding.

**SNIP

Any one else agree, or am I just paranoid.

HAHA i seem to remember this one Moosehead

lets see it was a SP gun rear shot

at about 160m first two shots go wide then BOOM hehe shrek crew 1 down remaining crewmember runs away to tree line.

remember it was a vet or elite Shrek crew

w/ full fog of war backed up by vet. para troops

lucky? yes

but such are the fortunes of war

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Berlin calling, Berlin calling,

when Berlin calls it pays to listen.....

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http://ponyshow.com some screenshots

[This message has been edited by Dogface (edited 03-15-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Dogface (edited 03-15-2001).]

[This message has been edited by Dogface (edited 03-15-2001).]

[Dogface]

Moosehead that was a good fight id love another one..

This time you set it up it can be same as last time

1250 me

small

combined arms..

[Peter White]

Originally posted by Vanir:

Although the odds of any given rare event happening in any given game are by definition (very) small, the odds of some rare event happening are much larger. The larger the number of possible events, the larger the odds become of at least one of them occuring in a given time frame (a single game, for example). There are a lot of rare events that can take place in most CM games. Rare events happen all the time both in real life and in the game. If you see the same rare event (shrecks hitting moving vehicles at 200m, bogging on dry ground, whatever) popping up a lot, then you may have a problem. But that is not the case.

Very well stated.

It is common misconception that it should be rare to see rare events. No, rare events happen all the time. We expect particular rare events happen only once in a long while.

Let's take an extreme, everyday example: any state lottery. What are the odds that a particular combination of numbers will be chosen? Roughly 1 in ~20 million. But it happens twice a week in California. Does that prove the lottery is rigged? Of course not.

[Forever Babra]

In Italy on the night of 21st-22nd October 1944, a Canadian Infantry Brigade was ordered to establish a bridgehead across the Savio River. The Seaforth Highlanders of Canada were selected as the spearhead of the attack, and in weather most unfavourable to the operation they crossed the river and captured their objective in spite of strong opposition from the enemy.

Torrential rain had caused the Savio River to rise six feet in five hours, and as the soft vertical banks made it impossible to bridge the river no tanks or anti-tank guns could be taken across the raging stream to the support of the rifle companies.

As the right forward company was consolidating its objective it was suddenly counter-attacked by a troop of three Mark V Panther tanks supported by two self-propelled guns and about thirty infantry and the situation appeared hopeless.

Under heavy fire from the approaching enemy tanks, Private Smith, showing great initiative and inspiring leadership, led his P.I.A.T. Group of two men across an open field to a position from which the P.I.A.T. could best be employed. Leaving one man on the weapon, Private Smith crossed the road with a companion and obtained another P.I.A.T. Almost immediately an enemy tank came down the road firing its machine-guns along the line of the ditches. Private Smith’s comrade was wounded. At a range of thirty feet and having to expose himself to the full view of the enemy, Private Smith fired the P.I.A.T. and hit the tank, putting it out of action. Ten German infantry immediately jumped off the back of the tank and charged him with Schmeissers and grenades. Without hesitation Private Smith moved out on the road and with his Tommy gun at point-blank range, killed four Germans and drove the remainder back. Almost immediately another tank opened fire and more enemy infantry closed in on Smith’s position. Obtaining some abandoned Tommy gun magazines from a ditch, he steadfastly held his position, protecting his comrade and fighting the enemy with his Tommy gun until they finally gave up and withdrew in disorder.

One tank and both self-propelled guns had been destroyed by this time, but yet another tank swept the area with fire from a longer range. Private Smith, still showing utter contempt for enemy fire, helped his wounded friend to cover and obtained medical aid for him behind a nearby building. He then returned to his position beside the road to await the possibility of a further enemy attack.

No further immediate attack developed, and as a result the battalion was able to consolidate the bridgehead position so vital to the success of the whole operation, which led to the capture of San Giorgio Di Cesena and a further advance to the Ronco River.

Thus, by the dogged determination, outstanding devotion to duty and superb gallantry of this private soldier, his comrades were so inspired that the bridgehead was held firm against all enemy attacks, pending the arrival of tanks and anti-tank guns some hours later.’

Victoria Cross citation for Private Ernest Alvia "Smokey" Smith as taken from the London Gazette, December 1944.

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"Za Rodentia!"

[Guest Michael emrys]

Listen to Jason and Vanir, folks, they're tellin' it like it is.

Originally posted by aka_tom_w:

The luck factor is HUGE in this game.

BUT it is really no different than rolling the dice in ASL, Panzer Leader, Tobruk or RISK!

or any other board game.

I think you might be mistaken on that last point. My take on dice rolling games is that they are limited to a small number of possible outcomes (because there are just so many spots on the dice, typically six). Therefore they filter out all the less likely possibilities. Having played those games for years, we have come to accept that behavior as "reasonable" and anything wilder as "unreasonable". But the fact is that in life, as Jason and Vanir pointed out, improbable things happen all the time (and no, I'm not engaging in oxymoron no matter how much it might sound like that ).

When playing wargames using dice, I could always confine myself to attacking at odds that gave certainty or near certainty that I would capture my objective at no loss to myself. But now we find ourselves in the universe of CM which, like the real world is much more unpredictable. One can adapt to that universe, or one can play some other game. Personally, I like it.

Michael

[Michael Dorosh]

Not sure if Smokey Smith is a testament to luck or not - he was "only" 10 metres from the Panther when he knocked it out (!)

A friend of mine got to portray Smokey in that VC special that was shot in Saskatchewan and recently aired on History Television. Got to meet the great man himself, too. Tell me I wasn't jealous.

It is interesting to note that while our CM PIAT gunners are unarmed, Smokey carried a Thompson - and killed 4 Germans with it, driving 15 or so more away.

[Guest Captitalistdoginchina]

Take a look at this thread, it started with the exact opposite conclusion as this thread.

http://www.battlefront.com/discuss/Forum1/HTML/011661.html

CDIC

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"Death solves all problems - no man no problem"

J.V.Stalin, 1918

[GriffinCheng+]

CDIC,

Unfortunately, our current game concludes exactly opposite to the thead you pointed

B2T, I think Steve & Charles Co. stated very early, way before Beta Demo days, random factor do work in CM. It is said that a guy told them a scenario was too easy to beat. S&C Co. told him to try again, and this time, he was wipped.

Gotta do-a-search for myself.

Griffin.

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"When you find your PBEM opportents too hard to beat, there is always the AI."

"Can't get enough Tank?"

Come to my Combat Missing Command Post (CMCP) at http://www.angelfire.com/games3/CMCP/

[Forever Babra]

Originally posted by Michael Dorosh:

Not sure if Smokey Smith is a testament to luck or not - he was "only" 10 metres from the Panther when he knocked it out (!)

Smokey is just a Real Life reminder that insignificant units can cause a player great distress from time to time. Blaming the game won't make it go away.

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"Za Rodentia!"