"Wild Bill's Rumblings Of War"- A Tournament

[tabpub]

Treeburst:

Keep us all in the dark please.The sun hurts

:cool:

Plus it gives all you "behind the scenes" types that have made this possible something of their own; an opportunity to kibitz among yourselves about results, AAR's, etc.

Also, do you want the final map included with the AAR? It may provide some extra "flavor" to the written report.

[Treeburst155]

Tabpub,

Feel free to spice up AARs with screenshots or the final map. It's all up to you guys.

Bertram,

All the concerns you have expressed are being considered at this time. Nabla has come up with a very elaborate equation in another thread that is complex, but beautiful. Check out this discussion: http://www.battlefront.com/cgi-bin/bbs/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=021512

I'm probably going to change the scoring system yet again. Keep in mind that it is just a variation of what has been discussed in this thread, and addresses the concerns you have expressed. The equation's effect is most similar to the Treeburst Variation discussed on the previous page, but it takes into account inconsistent play such as Bertram described. The equation can be tweaked to provide just the amount of extra reward we want for an overwhelming victory. Right now I'm leaning in favor of a small but noticeable reward for a huge victory. Doing this decreases the effect of inconsistent play substantially. Believe me when I say this is going to be the fairest scoring system possible for unbalanced CM games. Since there is really no such thing as true balance in CM, spending some time working out a scoring system with a statistical wizard like Nabla is well worth the time.

I think I will go ahead and keep everyone in the dark concerning the outcome of players' games. This relieves me of quite a load of work and adds to the suspense for you guys. If there is mass revolt caused by my withholding of game outcomes I will of course give in; but until then you guys don't get to know anything except the scoring system when that is finally decided on. Have Fun!!

Treeburst155 out.

[ 09-28-2001: Message edited by: Treeburst155 ]

[WineCape]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Treeburst155:

I could just report the scores of completed games on this thread without revealing sides or scenarios, just names. Players would almost be completely in the dark as to how they stand.

This is fine with me, and saves me lots of work (the web page); but people may not want to be that much in the dark for the duration of the tournament. I kinda like the idea though. Wild Bill and the testers, WineCape,

and I will know what is going on and get to enjoy the race.

Keep in mind that without specific information about a completed game (players, sides,and score) you will have no way to compare your performance with others during the tournament. There can be no page showing the ranking of players since that can't be determined until all games are completed.

I could post win/loss statistics but they would be of dubious value with this scoring system. So speak up, guys. How much info do you want to know when it comes to completed games?

Treeburst155 out.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hello Treeburst and fellow participants,

Been following this thread and I agree that the so called "Nabla system" (well done sir!) is really a nifty idea - it should be implemented unless participants feel that there is some overriding concern with the mechanics of this scoring system.

Humbly speaking for myself, I would like to know at least the participants scoring details (how irrelevant that might seem to be while RoW is going on), the scenario the players played etc. Participants will at least get then a general idea who is nailing whom on the battle field!

Anyways, this is your tournament, RoW combatants. Let Treeburst know your views regarding this issue. He is already doing a fine job IMO.

Best wishes,

Charl Theron

------------------

The Irish believe that fairies are extremely fond of good wine. The proof of the assertion is that in the olden days royalty would leave a keg of wine out for them at night. Sure enough, it was always gone in the morning.

-- Irish Folklore

[WineCape]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Treeburst155:

I think I will go ahead and keep everyone in the dark concerning the outcome of players' games. This relieves me of quite a load of work and adds to the suspense for you guys. If there is mass revolt caused by my withholding of game outcomes I will of course give in; but until then you guys don't get to know anything except the scoring system when that is finally decided on. Have Fun!!

Treeburst155 out.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Could I kindly request that you then send me the game scores via e-mail as they come in Treeburst? Less admin work for you seems prudent at this stage.

Kind regards,

Charl Theron

-----------------

"My dear girl, there are some things that just aren't done, such as drinking Dom Perignon '53 above the temperature of 38 degrees Fahrenheit. That's just as bad as listening to the Beatles without earmuffs!"

-- James Bond in "Goldfinger" (1964)

[Holien]

Hi,

Nice to be able to post in here again after that damn Finn...

I am happy to be kept in the dark until all the results are in for each scenario. Until you know all the results for that scenario you can't calculate the true points anyway.

I don't want any info about the other games other than general chit chat. In my corresponence with other players I make no mention of what scenarios I am playing even though I moan (I am a pommy after all)about the lack of reinforcements!!! (Please WWB be good to me I am getting swamped!!!) :eek:

As for the scoring system, whatever you use people who are lucky to play someone who is not on form will get ahead. The current suggestion on scoring will help make the scores closer so I am happy with the suggested scoring as it seems fairer than the original way that was proposed.

Right now down to the local pub for my Friday afternoon ritual 2 pints of warm Real Ale. I wonder what they have on tap today.

Regards H

[ 09-28-2001: Message edited by: Holien ]

[Treeburst155]

WineCape,

Have no fear! You and I will know everything about the game results. I will give you names, the side/scenario they played, and the final score. You will probably get most, if not all, this information in the AARs that come in. So far we have two games complete and three AARs. The latest is in your mailbox now. In cases where no AAR is available when game results are originally reported I will send the info to you. I will keep you up to date.

Treeburst155 out.

[Wild Bill Wilder]

Sorry fellas, been involved in a few other firefirghts and could not get over here. By all means, send those AARs to ma also.

I really enjoy reading them and learn from them. Holien, I see you like them :eek:

Send me the video. I'd enjoy checking it out.

As for the scoring system, I go with the majority. That is not a cop-out. I do think what the folks involved in the tourney want (besides automatic victory - ) should be there.

I'm glad I'm designing and not admnistrating

Wild Bill

[Thomas Norton]

There is a psychological element to posting the scores. Since the posting of the game where Leonard Dickens beat up on Tom Travisano 87 to 13, I have found myself second guessing my current three games, is this the one?! I too am anxiously waiting for reinforcements, or deading them.

Is this the one?

Do I want to not know I have cancer and die blissfully? Or know and die bitterly?

Is this the one?

Am I just being told a lot of propaganda? Is this the one?

Then why do I keep coming back to this tread to see if I can gleam any intel on my evil opponents?!

Post the final scores.

Tom

[Treeburst155]

OK, we've got a vote for posting the final scores. I must admit, if I were playing I would like to know scores, sides, scenarios, the whole works, just because I would enjoy following the race. With little to no info you guys won't feel much pressure because you have virtually no idea where you stand. Even if you lost three games in a bad way you could still be alright because you played the tough side of those scenarios.

I count two votes for names and scores only, and two votes for complete blackout. Cast your votes!!

[ 09-28-2001: Message edited by: Treeburst155 ]

[Kingfish]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Treeburst155:

I must admit, if I were playing I would like to know scores, sides, scenarios, the whole works, just because I would enjoy following the race. With little to no info you guys won't feel much pressure because you have virtually no idea where you stand.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

But that cuts both ways, as a person way down in the rankings will lose interest once he realizes he can't catch the leader.

Why not try this: Post the scores for each section, but do not include the names of the participants. That way everyone can see how tight the race is, but wouldn't have a clue if they were the leader or lagging behind.

[Wild Bill Wilder]

My vote is for blackouts. Do I have a vote :confused: ?

I think the focus needs to be on the battle, not how well or how poorly another player is doing.

Focus. Winning demands focus.

And if I don't have a vote, at least I can lobby

Wild Bill

[gredeker]

I vote for posting scores -- it allows the head game to begin before you've even started playing. Posting scores allows you to know the other guy's reputation, and allows reactions that range from to going up against Rommel in May 1940 (Rommel... :confused: who's that?) vs going up against him in 1944 (Rommel! :eek: ). Besides, it helps to lay the foundation for the post-tourney woofing match.

Run away, run away...

[Treeburst155]

Including Wild Bill's vote it is 4 to 3 in favor of names and scores.

Kingfish,

I don't really understand what you want? Just numbers? That really doesn't help much at all. You at least would need names with the scores, eh?

Cast your vote! It could be a close decision.

Treeburst155 out.

[JPS]

I prefer relatively little info as I do not consider it appropriate that people starting battles _late_ in the tournament might have additional info that might help them to set up for defence/attack/serious counterattacks etc.

Focus on ongoing battles, I say!

WBW - I enjoy the scenarios, good job! Minor, even tiny, issue: in some scenarios the labels help to set the forces in ways that one perhaps might think as giving unrealistic amount of recon info. Might or might not be what you were planning to do.

[Juha Ahoniemi]

My vote goes to total blackout. Nobody will lose interest that way (is that possible anyway to lose interest btw?). maybe only thing to publish would be current average score of each finished scenario?

Juha

[Wild Bill Wilder]

THe "labels" are an excellent idea. I hesitated labeling the map too much as I thought it might take away from the "feel" of the battle.

I wanted the fighting ground to give the appearance of actual battlefields and the labels somewhat took away from that.

BUT, if you guys prefer that, I'll certainly include a few more for you, such as Hill 113,

Highway !, Objective 1, 2, 3, etc.

Do you prefer it that way?

Wild Bill

[Nabla]

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Wild Bill Wilder:

...<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hello Wild Bill!

There is something very, very weird going on with our SMTP server : it will not recognize your address. The message bounces back even before it leaves our own system with the following error message.

----- The following addresses had permanent fatal errors -----

bwilder@bellsouth.net

----- Transcript of session follows -----

... while talking to smtp.hut.fi.:

>>> RCPT To:<bwilder@bellsouth.net>

<<< 550 <bwilder@bellsouth.net>... Mailbox disabled for this recipient

550 bwilder@bellsouth.net... User unknown

Do you have another email address?

[Treeburst155]

I'm not sure how to count either JPS's vote or Juha's vote. I like Juha's idea of only giving the current average scores for a scenario. This would be fairly useless knowledge until the last weeks of the tourney. I'll put Juha and JPS down as a "YES" vote for limited info. That makes it 6-3 in favor.

Cast Your Votes!! Limited info on finished battles or complete blackout.

Treeburst155 out.

[mPisi]

I'll vote for blackout. I'm having too much fun worrying about the scenarios without the additional worry of scoring...

[Kingfish]

Gentlemen!

After a very brutal and bloody fight my gallant German defenders have been overrun, and Holien has won a min vic with a score of 54-41. The map is a wasteland of men and machines, testimony to the kind of parties Wild Bill likes to throw.

Treeburst,

I'll have the AAR to you by tomorrow at the latest.

[Holien]

Kingfish is very gracious and I only got the result by the skin of my cyber teeth.

He is a worthy opponent and one to be feared.

Wild Bill is truely evil and should be admonished for putting us through such an experience. The last turn was one of fear and exhultation leaving my little old paws shaking with adrealine.

It went down to the last turn and it was in the last 20 seconds when then hammer came down and victory was decided.

As for the votes I want to know as little as possible about the games and I am happy for the results not to be formerly posted.

Gossip can of course happen as Kingfish has just spilled the beans, but that is fine in my book as I will not try and calculate the scores from this chit chat.

So blind as a bat for me please.

WB The video is snaking it's way to you.

WB As for my previous pleadings in my other game, well I guess they might have been answered. I could kiss you. But It is a good job there is an ocean between us. (P.s I hope my opponent is not reading this as I don't think he has seen my sweet babies sneak onto the map, Yet!!!)

I will now get the setup done for my third outing (I should not have said kiss earlier) and get the AAR done on Sunday once I have stopped shaking from this 1st game.

Cheers

H

P.s. Thank god for Ben and Jerries Full Vermonty! Yummie.

[ 09-29-2001: Message edited by: Holien ]

[Treeburst155]

OK, adding Mpisi and Holien to the tally we now have 6-5 in favor of limited battle results info. This is going to be one of those "you can't please everybody" situations, I can tell. Cast Your Votes!!

Moving on to the scoring system. I'm just about satisfied with what I've worked out using Nabla's fancy formula. Here is an attempt to try to illustrate, using a practical example, how the "Nabla System" works:

Consider a scenario balanced in favor of the Germans such that the Allied median CM score is 30. Below is a typical set of Allied player results with one extreme outlier who we will call Fionn. Fionn represents the guy who demonstrates consistent excellent play. The CM score is on the left and the converted tourney score is on the right.

Fionn.....70...16.17

Player B..50...12.13

Player C..33...02.77

Player D..30...00.00

Player E..27...-2.77

Player F..24...-5.11

Player G..11...-11.79

Keep in mind these are all Allied scores achieved on the same scenario that is out of balance in favor of the Germans.

Player B did well having managed a dead even draw inspite of the German advantage. For this he scores almost 10 full points more than Player C who just beat the median. Fionn actually managed a high tactical victory from the disadvantaged side. This is quite an accomplishment. His reward is 4 more points than player B even though player B himself did substantially better than the median.

Hardest hit by this scenario is player F who only fell 6 points short of the median but lost 5.11 points. Since he is in the steep part of the curve every point from the median costs him close to one tourney point. Of course, the same is true on the plus side of the median, which makes up for this. Player G took quite a beating compared to the others who played his side and suffers accordingly. Interesting to note is even if player G had scored 0 points he would only lose approximately 14.25 points. This is because he can do no worse than -30 of the median with this side of the scenario. Regardless of the median score players should keep in mind that the most points you can lose or gain using this curve is 18.11. A bad game can only do so much damage to your situation. A couple moderately good games will make up for it. By the same token, a lucky overwhelming victory because your opponent had other things on his mind will not allow you to run away with the tournament title. Consistent play at 10-15 above the median is what players need. Major victories will add noticeable icing to the cake but you can't rest on your laurels. I like it, but am still looking at other curves.

I have now mastered the formula on my fancy calculator so I can explore the curves. Nabla is working on a program for everyone that will allow them to explore the scoring system themselves without the need for a $100 calculator. Unless Nabla comes up with something he thinks is better, I think we've just about perfected "The Nabla CM Scoring System".

Treeburst155 out.

[John Kettler]

Having worked through myriad computer and file problems, and having finally gotten a setup out to Ben Galanti in the Invitational, I am now going to attempt to get much delayed items out to Stix and Tom in Section II. You know, minor stuff like a setup and a turn.

Thanks for your patience, guys.

Regards,

John Kettler

PS

A battle that is in doubt until the last twenty seconds! Who could ask for more from a game?

[Treeburst155]

It's good to hear you're back in business, John. We haven't heard any good arty stories in awhile. LOL!! I'm sorry, I couldn't resist. Forgive me, please.

Wild Bill's Rumblings of War Scoring System (complete explanation)

First of all, the primary purpose of this rather elaborate scoring system is

to make it possible to measure skill inspite of scenario imbalance, since

balance in CM is VERY difficult to achieve and is also not very realistic.

The other thing accounted for with this scoring system is inconsistent play

that gives big victories to players simply because their opponent surrenders

prematurely or tries very risky tactics just for the fun of it. A person might

play like this when he no longer feels he has a chance to win the tourney. His

play, in such a case, would not be up to his real capabilities. This scoring

system limits to a certain degree the points awarded for huge victories while

still giving a nice bonus to those who manage one. The result is that a couple

huge victories will put you noticeably out in front, but you will not be able

to run away with the tournament. You will still have to exhibit strong play in

the rest of your games to win the fine wines. A player exhibiting consistent

strong performance with no huge victories will be nipping at your heels. By

the same token, if you have an especially bad game you do not find yourself

hopelessly out of the running. Strong play in your other games will overcome

your lapse of command ability in that disastrous game.

HOW IT WORKS

Across the three sections each scenario will be played twelve times by the

twenty four players. Your score in a scenario will be listed among the eleven

others who played that scenario from the side you did. When all the results

are in for that scenario the median score will be determined for each side of

the scenario. The median of a list of numbers is the number that has an equal

amount of numbers lower than it, and higher than it. For example the median of

this group of scores is 7 {1 3 6 7 8 10 14}. If there is an even amount of

numbers in the group the median is midway between the two numbers that split

the center. The median of this group is 6 {1 2 5 7 8 9}. You can think of the

median as the average, but with less weight being given to extreme outliers.

The median will usually be fairly near the average except in the case of

outliers.

Once the median for a side in a scenario is determined by looking at the twelve

scores for that side, your distance from the median comes into play. If the

median score for a side of a scenario is twenty five and you score thirty five

points then you scored ten points over the median. BTW, if the median is much

less than fifty using twelve games to calculate it then you have an unbalanced

scenario. This does not matter using this system.

After we figure the difference (either +/-) between your score and the median

we plug that figure into a formula Nabla came up with. You do not need to

worry about this formula! Nabla is making a simple program so you can see how

it works in various hypothetical situations of your own creation without the

need of a fancy calculator or college level math skills. If you can figure out

the median you can come up with final tourney scores.

The formula translates your distance from the median (+/-) into a tourney score.

This is your final score for that scenario. The sum of all your final scores

for the eight scenarios is how the winner will be determined in your section.

Keep in mind that although game scores will be compared with players across

the three sections to determine the median, the final tally of your scores will

only be compared with those in your section. The more games used to determine

the median, the more accurate the median will be. Determining the median is,

in effect, determining the balance of a scenario. The more samples the better.

That's why we go outside your section to come up with the median.

Scoring summarized:

1) Compare scores of all players playing the same side in the scenario and

determine the median.

2) Determine each player's distance in points , either plus or minus, from the

median. (CM score - median = distance from median)

3) Plug this number into Nabla's formula and out comes your tourney score for

that scenario.

4) Total all eight tourney scores to arrive at players' final scores.

5) The highest final scores in each section win that section and move on to the

playoff series.

There ya have it. In case you are mathematically inclined here is the formula:

(d) represents your distance from the median. (d) can be positive or negative.

(sgn) This represents the sign of (d). In place of (sgn) you will put either

a "+" or a "-" into the formula.

a This is the variable that determines the shape of the curve. To use the

formula you need to substitute .055 for "a".

e This is an interesting number equal to approximately 2.718. Like "pi" it

has interesting mathematical properties which is the only reason it is used,

according to Nabla. Scientific calculators have an "e" key on them.

Now the formula: (sgn)(1/a)*(1-e to the power of (-a*|d|))

Don't worry about it!! Nabla's got a program coming you can use that will

do all this automatically for you. I'll also be posting hypotheticals from time

to time to help you get a handle on this. The main thing to understand is that

consistent strong play is what you should strive for without getting caught up

in the desire for overwhelming victories. If you see a golden opportunity for

a Major victory you might go for it; but don't take big risks to achieve it.

Treeburst155 out.

[John Kettler]

Treeburst155,

Don't order the band to start playing just yet. Hold the skyrockets in abeyance, too. I now have many more failed attempts to zip files with PKZip. Oddly, it unzips them effortlessly.

Any ideas on why it would do one but not the other? I keep getting corrupt file messages for files I'm trying to zip. If I can't get this sorted out I guess I'll wait until StuffIt Deluxe gets here. I got the shipped notice the other day. If I think up another approach meanwhile, I'll try that. Stix and Tom deserve to fight me, not just each other.

As for artillery stories, let me say that I've at last got clear weather and long LOS in my about to start Invitational battle vs. Ben Galanti. That should lead to the kinds of artillery stories I enjoy reading.

Regards,

John Kettler