How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fzza1l/warehouse_with_claimed_400_shahed_drones_targeted/

 

Warehouse with (claimed) 400 Shahed drones targeted by the Ukraine Navy, so likely a Neptune missile. Oktyabr'skii, Krasnodar Krai 46.4869531, 38.2742935,

 

More Russian munitions on fire, this time in Krasnodar Krai.

[dan/california]

Just now, dan/california said:

 

More Russian munitions on fire, this time in Krasnodar Krai.

Ukraine producing a minimal requirement but effective cruise missile, maybe more than one model, of its own may the straw that breaks the Russian camel. 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

"The operation of armor on land"? In 1863?

This has me questioning the depth of the NZ staff college experience:

https://web.prm.ox.ac.uk/weapons/index.php/tour-by-region/oceania/americas/arms-and-armour-americas-42/index.html

 

[Battlefront.com]

Outgoing NATO cheif, Stoltenberg, has another take on how the 2022 invasion could have possibly been avoided.. using 2015-2021 arming it to the teeth with Western weaponry:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/09/trump-ukraine-stoltenberg-nato-chief-00182894

It was politically impossible to have done that, though, because Ukraine would have used those weapons against Russian proxy forces.  They would have objected strenuously, just as they did with Javelins were finally put on the table.

Personally, I think this could have backfired.  I think Russia would have invaded no matter what.  However, if the West had armed Ukraine well enough it could have caused Putin's goons to come up with a more realistic plan to attack Ukraine.  For example, only attacking in the south.  This, in turn, might have made it impractical for Ukraine to have inflicted the massive losses on Russia that it in fact did in 2022.  It also would have concentrated Russia's massive combat power in a much smaller space, giving it (effectively) twice as much to draw from over time.

Steve

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Curious that they are just hitting this one now considering its proximity.  Wonder if they waited until this site became more of a priority hub for the Russians after their previous losses.

 

There's some evidence that at least one of the other depots was hit while a train was there unloading, which meant a much greater likelihood of striking while munitions were around in the open rather than in secure bunkers ( to the extent that Russia has good ammo handling at the best of times). So possibly this was the first chance they had to hit this dump in a similar windows of higher vulnerability.

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

What I have heard here and there is that both could put a useful deterrent together in about 90 days. Necessarily crude in terms of delivery but that wouldn't be a huge problem in any scenario in which it became necessary.

Yes. For Japan it's the political issue that would be any holdup. SK, I think if they decided to, wouldn't get much resistance from the public since NK already has some.

Dave

[Ultradave]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

a) could see a nicely silhouetted vehicle from far away and b) could hit it.

Lesson #1 from the Cold War:

"If you can be seen, you can be hit. If you are hit, you are dead."

Stark warning of the accuracy and deadliness of weapons to those whose most recent experience was Vietnam.

Dave

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think Russia would have invaded no matter what.

When the war started, I thought (like many) that accommodating Russia's stated concerns might have prevented the war.

Then I reviewed twenty years of Putin's escalating statements and studied this graphic:

 

After that, it became clear that the war was inevitable, just a matter of when.  The forward-forcing functions were politics (e.g., the Olympics in China likely delayed a better start time), a perception of RU military readiness, a perception of increasing Western weakness (waiting for this to be at an acceptable level), and a perception (from intelligence reports) of

Ukraine's suitable level of subversion.  Backward-forcing functions were Putin's somewhat-advanced age and desire to be a historical figure comparable to Peter the Great, and collapsing demographics in Russia.  Where the forward and backward functions intersected was 2022-02-24.

So yes to your statement.

Edited 4 minutes ago by acrashb

[Carolus]

 

Many threads exist about looking at Russian vehicle depots from the sky and the developments in there.

Well, this one is about a German storage base, and there has been quite a number of chanes in there over the last two years. New buildings, new roads, and the focus has likely changed from dismantling vehicles to refurbishing vehicles.