How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, billbindc said:

From what I understand, in the first 6 months of the war there were a lot of guys like that bumming around Ukraine. Most talked a big game and went home, some actually got into combat and realized that their previous experience fighting folks without much in the way of barrage artillery hadn't prepared them for this war and an minute minority actually worked out. Those folks aren't writing blogs. 

This is pretty much correct.  A lot of well meaning guys, along with a plethora of the usual thrill seeking egotists, went over to help Ukraine.  Sprinkle in some mentally unstable and/or scammers, and you have yourself a pretty mixed bag.  Some went into the organized Legion, others wound up sprinkled around in various different units.  Some embedded in the rear to help train new soldiers.  There were some nearly official groups doing that for Ukraine's special forces.

The criticism I saw is that the above were not always well vetted.  And even if they were, sometimes their value to the cause was dubious.  Just because Specialist Numbnuts served for 4 years in the US Army, even with some exposure in Afghanistan or Iraq, doesn't mean he was good at his job or did the sort of work Ukraine needed help with.  And of course there were the ones that weren't there for the right reasons and did nothing valuable, if not harmful.

My take on the captured American is that he fits somewhere into the category of "grifter" or "lost soul" who was dumb enough to get himself into a position of being captured.  Everything else Russia has said about him is probably fabrication.

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

It's also flat out wrong to say 'they haven't talked since'. Sullivan, Burns and Austin have all maintained communications publicly with their Russian counterparts and more frequent below the line talks have never stopped. 

Have always wondered about the communications between warring/disparate partners.  I know that, at high levels, they try to connect and build a bit of trust during calmer times.  But, once the **** hits the fan, do they still talk?  Engage?  Even to the point of, "Vlad, WTF do you think you're doing" like two friends would do.   Or, is it all formal and tightly versed?

[CHARLIE43]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Your take would be wrong then...for the simple fact that while the Russian side is a Putin basically winging it, on the American side an enormous machinery of diplomacy and military reaction goes into overdrive. Biden would have been highly briefed which, along with his enormous experience in foreign policy, would have had his team directing responses pretty much before the call was completed. Putin would have been presented with a series of arguments why his actions were not going to work along with both clear statements of what the US was going to do in response openly and suggestions of what it would do covertly. 

It's also flat out wrong to say 'they haven't talked since'. Sullivan, Burns and Austin have all maintained communications publicly with their Russian counterparts and more frequent below the line talks have never stopped. 

I gleaned all that basically from one mere article that was to be taken "with a grain of salt". So take one with my take as well...

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/biden-putin-call-ukraine-russia/index.html

Old, but goes where your first slant went. As for being flat out wrong as to having not communicated, as far as I know, other than the underlying diplomatic comms, they "referring to Putin/Biden", haven't communicated one on one since.

 

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I had this conversation multiple times with a Marine of some rank before the war started. He liked to point out that nobody in his generation had been under serious artillery assault since Vietnam and even that was small potatoes to what the previous generation had dealt with in Korea or WWII. This was intertwined with the "yes, we are getting rid of tanks and it's great" conversation, btw.

Back around 2008 or so I observed a CPX (battalion level command exercise) using CMSF.  The brigade commander (full bird) said that he was concerned that the next war would be a stand up conventional one like this and his soldiers either never trained for it or had probably pushed it out of their minds because COIN was all consuming.  So he wanted to expose them to what a conventional war might be like.

There was a couple of incidents that proved the Colonel was correct to worry.  When one of the battalions got into a minimal amount of contact they called in air and artillery.  The Colonel said they couldn't have any.  "Why not?" asked the Battalion CO (in real life the XO).  "Because you're not the most important thing on the battlefield and someone else needs the support more".  Doh

Another incident was the Weapons Platoon LT putting a TOW Humvee in a spot that wasn't very well thought out.  Tanks came onto the map a long ways away and, before it even cracked off a shot, was blown up.  "That was the stupidest position I've ever seen" said the Colonel to the LT that seems to have forgotten that the enemy he was facing a) could see a nicely silhouetted vehicle from far away and b) could hit it.

Yet another incident was a Battalion CO bragging about how well they did when the game ended.  I challenged him about some aspects and he said he had no doubts that his guys would be able to handle the casualties in the moment because they were tough and experienced.  This was in response to me pointing out that if the game hadn't ended he had a couple of squads that were about to be shredded by a BTR and they had no AT weapons.

Anyway, it was very interesting to see this first hand.

Steve

[billbindc]

22 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Have always wondered about the communications between warring/disparate partners.  I know that, at high levels, they try to connect and build a bit of trust during calmer times.  But, once the **** hits the fan, do they still talk?  Engage?  Even to the point of, "Vlad, WTF do you think you're doing" like two friends would do.   Or, is it all formal and tightly versed?

Discussions I know of are Austin to Shoigu, Burns to Patrushev and Sullivan to pretty much everybody. But those are just what is publicly admitted. I think there is more discussion at a lower level than either side will  talk about and mostly it's the US sending messages to Moscow or Russia asking for help and not the other way around. One good example is from a month or so ago when there were blind quotes about Russia asking the US to avoid a certain operation they had caught wind of because it was dangerously destabilizing. Most obviously, that would have been a direct attack on either a nuclear weapons facility or leadership. That Russia asked, the US intervened and Ukraine refrained tells you quite about about how normalized that kind of communication is.

[CHARLIE43]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

One good example is from a month or so ago when there were blind quotes about Russia asking the US to avoid a certain operation they had caught wind of because it was dangerously destabilizing. Most obviously, that would have been a direct attack on either a nuclear weapons facility or leadership. That Russia asked, the US intervened and Ukraine refrained tells you quite about about how normalized that kind of communication is.

Well, there goes my misplaced reasoning for the Administration's unwillingness to let Ukraine unleash the long range stuff being more a matter of "ooops, look what we hit.!" type situation.

[Thomm]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

a) could see a nicely silhouetted vehicle from far away...

Does CM really take this into account? The "nicely silhouetted" part, I mean.

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Well, there goes my misplaced reasoning for the Administration's unwillingness to let Ukraine unleash the long range stuff being more a matter of "ooops, look what we hit.!" type situation.

Rather the opposite. The US knows a lot better than Ukraine does where things are you really wouldn't want to hit even if you are Ukraine. And Russia letting the US know *and* expecting that everyone will behave rationally is a fair measure of how deeply nobody wants to climb the escalation ladder whatever bloodcurdling things they say to get German media wee wee'd up. 

[A Canadian Cat]

17 minutes ago, Thomm said:

Does CM really take this into account? The "nicely silhouetted" part, I mean.

Not the back lite silhouetted part but in the open (which you have to be for a silhouette) and at range yeah they have that covered. 

[A Canadian Cat]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Back around 2008 or so I observed a CPX (battalion level command exercise) using CMSF.  The brigade commander (full bird) said that he was concerned that the next war would be a stand up conventional one like this and his soldiers either never trained for it or had probably pushed it out of their minds because COIN was all consuming.  So he wanted to expose them to what a conventional war might be like.

Super interesting both from a this war's ramifications and the use of CM in training perspective. Thanks for sharing.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Ultradave said:

South Korea for sure. They are already nervous enough over North Korea. Japan is a topic of discussion in the non-proliferation community. There is a LOT of resistance in Japan towards nuclear weapons, even in the face of a threat. I'm retired now, but the sense (before Ukraine of course) was that Japan would not, absent an existential risk to Japan. Technically, though, they could do it more quickly than most.

I don't see how Poland could physically get there unless someone GAVE them the SNM to create a weapon. Otherwise, where are they going to get it from? And of course, providing SNM to another country is strictly prohibited by the NPT. 

Dave

What I have heard here and there is that both could put a useful deterrent together in about 90 days. Necessarily crude in terms of delivery but that wouldn't be a huge problem in any scenario in which it became necessary.

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

- Ignore, deny and delay. The post-Cold War doctrines became dogma in about 20 years. We had head priests and entire political parties buy into it. Hell, we had entire nations base foreign policy doctrine on it. So when the wind shifted there was a lot of vested interest to push back. I lived this one up close and personal. In 2017, to even suggest that we were entering back into a great power defence dynamic was heresy in some pretty high level rooms. It is now accepted fact albeit with divided conclusions. That 7 year delay left us flat footed for this war…and we can still see denial and pushback to this day. 

And the people most resistant to the reality sandwich are dealing with a nasty double tap. Not only do they have to spend the money, and political capital, to get back in the big war business, the nature of big wars has shifted at the same time. So to  build something that will actually be effective you can't just fall back on the shells of the old defense contractors, and their pet Congressmen/MPs. They have stand up whole new industries, and since they don't exist yet, they don't have any lobbyist yet either.

And the conscription question is a serious case of the third rail...When you get to "Godfather conversation" where they try to pull you back in, grab your fishing rod and run like you mean it. 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1fzp6wz/more_views_photo_report_ukrainian_uavs_hit/

More views / photo] Report: Ukrainian UAVs hit Russia's 67th GRAU Arsenal, a large ammunition dump outside of Karachev, in Russia's Bryansk region. Night of October 8-9, 2024

 

A much better video on this, approximately infinite secondary explosions.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1fzodbl/ua_109th_territorial_defense_brigades_muramasa/

UA 109th Territorial Defense Brigade's "Muramasa" drone team targeted Russian equipment/logistics in the Povrovsk direction, hitting tanks, an SPG, trucks, and several light vehicles using FPV strike drones. Published October 9, 2024

 

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1fzok5e/ua_108th_territorial_defense_brigades_skyforce/

UA 108th Territorial Defense Brigade's "SkyForce" drone team flew night strikes against Russian logistics, hitting numerous trucks and light vehicles with FPV strike drones. Published October 8, 2024

 

This  sub reddit has an infinity of Russian stuff blowing up. These two vids in particular highlight how just driving the the last few kilometers to the front is almost suicidal. 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Back around 2008 or so I observed a CPX (battalion level command exercise) using CMSF.  The brigade commander (full bird) said that he was concerned that the next war would be a stand up conventional one like this and his soldiers either never trained for it or had probably pushed it out of their minds because COIN was all consuming.  So he wanted to expose them to what a conventional war might be like.

There was a couple of incidents that proved the Colonel was correct to worry.  When one of the battalions got into a minimal amount of contact they called in air and artillery.  The Colonel said they couldn't have any.  "Why not?" asked the Battalion CO (in real life the XO).  "Because you're not the most important thing on the battlefield and someone else needs the support more".  Doh

Another incident was the Weapons Platoon LT putting a TOW Humvee in a spot that wasn't very well thought out.  Tanks came onto the map a long ways away and, before it even cracked off a shot, was blown up.  "That was the stupidest position I've ever seen" said the Colonel to the LT that seems to have forgotten that the enemy he was facing a) could see a nicely silhouetted vehicle from far away and b) could hit it.

Yet another incident was a Battalion CO bragging about how well they did when the game ended.  I challenged him about some aspects and he said he had no doubts that his guys would be able to handle the casualties in the moment because they were tough and experienced.  This was in response to me pointing out that if the game hadn't ended he had a couple of squads that were about to be shredded by a BTR and they had no AT weapons.

Anyway, it was very interesting to see this first hand.

Steve

That was sixteen years ago. So the young Captain on that ex is now the full bird. He probably thought the whole thing was antiquated and pushed by his antiquated boss. He then deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan a few more times to get his combat commands. Did some peacetime stuff, maybe a trip to Europe. And now he is now looking at this war through that lens and wondering “why aren’t they using the tanks we gave em?” While advising a General on why we need to buy more big steel and sky guns. Even though neither of those things really helped in COIN either.

Modern militaries have no frame of reference for this type of war. Anyone who had any contact with it are long gone. I was in Yugoslavia when they were raging a war that looked a lot like a scaled down version of this one…that was 1994. 

So here we are. We need to get very smart on how to rebuild for the next war because the misalignment between that one and the wars we have been fighting is significant.

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

"North Korea is likely to deploy members of its regular armed forces to Ukraine in support of Russia, South Korea's defense chief said Tuesday, in the latest sign of deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow...

'As Russia and North Korea have signed a mutual treaty akin to a military alliance, the possibility of such a deployment is highly likely,' Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told lawmakers during a parliamentary audit session."

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241008004300315

Quote

Against this backdrop, Kim said a recent report on North Korean troop casualties in a Russian-occupied territory near the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk is also likely to be true.

Last week, the Kyiv Post reported that six North Korean officers were killed and three others were wounded in a Ukrainian missile strike on Oct. 3, citing intelligence sources.

 

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

https://m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241008004300315

 

Do we have any indication of scale on this? A couple of companies of engineers is not going to move the needle. Brigades of meat for the grinder might.

[acrashb]

A few pages back someone posted about RU drones hunting civilians.

Here is an entire article complete with first-hand accounts from said civilians.  Welcome to the future of warfare, slaughterbots and all:

Russian drones are hunting civilians in Ukraine  | National Post

 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That was sixteen years ago. So the young Captain on that ex is now the full bird. He probably thought the whole thing was antiquated and pushed by his antiquated boss. He then deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan a few more times to get his combat commands. Did some peacetime stuff, maybe a trip to Europe. And now he is now looking at this war through that lens and wondering “why aren’t they using the tanks we gave em?” While advising a General on why we need to buy more big steel and sky guns. Even though neither of those things really helped in COIN either.

Modern militaries have no frame of reference for this type of war. Anyone who had any contact with it are long gone. I was in Yugoslavia when they were raging a war that looked a lot like a scaled down version of this one…that was 1994. 

So here we are. We need to get very smart on how to rebuild for the next war because the misalignment between that one and the wars we have been fighting is significant.

Not the least of the problems is that the U.S. has not setup a formal corps of military observers in Ukraine. If that now Colonel spent three months at a brigade command post in the Donbas he would come back with a MUCH better perception of the new realities. I read a really good article on this at some point, and I am having trouble finding it again.