How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[omae2]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I mean. There has to be a limit. Eventually. But are we approaching it? Or is the limit so far that the last surviving Russian other than Putin will run himself into a drone in Ukraine five years from now?

Because I thought we might be approaching the very limit we're talking about about 100k dead Russians and 2000 burned tanks ago, and yet here we are.

The core of russian society still untouched by the horrors of this war. Country guys, prison scums, extremists and mercs were abundant but not the real russian civil sphere. The system that build on lies is unveiled once you have to suffer for its lies. The guys inside the army see that things are in general ****ed up but they are from the niche of societiy. Expendables. Useful fools. Now once the real factors, those who can be loud and organize, those whom have influential parents or uncles have to go to blow pieces than the system will stir. I think that's the core of the  Putin politic. I mean he does not really know **** about military, he acting like some tough guy but he just slimy bull****ter. He knows politics, and how to use peoples, he don't understand much of military or modern technology for far as i see. And he is old and isolated.

There is a breaking point, but its not like with the romanovs. Russians are aware that if they **** up than their country will be split up, so they will always drawn toward stability and right now this is Putin. When they see him as a threat to that stability they will get rid of him and put another guy in his place.

[Offshoot]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am sure that by now Putin is pretty well informed about the realistic capabilities of his armed forces.  What I'm less sure about is how well informed he is about the economic state of the Russian economy.  Because if he's well informed on both of those huge topics, then he would understand that Russia's running out of time faster than men or material.

By all accounts Nabiullina, governor of the Central Bank of Russia, is smart, under no illusions and regarded by Putin as a straight talker, so I would find it hard to believe Putin is uninformed about the economic situation.

[sburke]

Ukrainian forces reclaim key plants; Russian advance blunted (msn.com)

 

On Tuesday, the British Ministry of Defense reported that at the end of September, Ukrainian forces recaptured the mechanical plants in Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region. This had been a Russian stronghold enabling tactical operations along the Vovcha River.

In the latest intelligence update, it was assessed that this loss would limit the ability of Russian ground forces to advance in the Kharkiv region. In turn, the takeover of the plants will likely facilitate further Ukrainian counteroffensives north of the city, aiming to push Russian forces to the border.

It was explained that Vovchansk had been the site of fighting since May 2024, when Russian ground forces launched an offensive in the Kharkiv region, likely to create a buffer zone to deter Ukrainian forces from launching attacks on the Belgorod region in Russia and to mitigate their effects. This has resulted in heavy fighting for Vovchansk, which lies 3 miles from the border, with both sides trying to push each other out of the area.

Russia withdrew troops from the Vovchansk area to support operations in the Kursk region, where Ukraine has occupied a wedge inside Russian territory since August 2024. This almost certainly limited the capabilities of Russian ground forces in the Vovchansk area.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

I don't think that's too likely. It is a good explanation for the initial readiness misunderstanding and starting the war, but now?

Putin is a monster but he isn't dumb. He has a map. He must have noticed that if you look at a map zoomed out enough that it has both the border and Kyiv, the line has not moved in years

 

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

By all accounts Nabiullina, governor of the Central Bank of Russia, is smart, under no illusions and regarded by Putin as a straight talker, so I would find it hard to believe Putin is uninformed about the economic situation.

I tend to agree with you both that Putin is, at a minimum, pretty well aware of how bad things are generally.  For starters, he didn't expect the war to last 3 weeks not to mention 3 years.  I'm sure that didn't escape is notice!  The knowledge of the massive losses of personnel and equipment comes along with that too.  I'm also sure he's well aware of the Black Sea Flotilla (not really a Fleet any more, eh?) is teetering on being a Black Sea Ship.  Big and expensive things that matter going boom?  Yup, I'm sure he knows about those too.  Then there's the dire economic situation that he probably has a decent grasp of.  He's probably also painfully aware that there's no way to address any of these things and others I didn't bother listing.

However, this isn't what I'm talking about.

What I'm talking about is how well informed Putin is about the failure points for the things which keep his regime functioning.  Does he really have a good sense of how hard he can push the military before it collapses?  How about what specific pressures on the economy might cause a chain reaction financial collapse?  Is there anything within the "palace" that might get out of control under some set of circumstances?  How about regional governments and the possibility some might take advantage of some larger crisis?

This matters because the more Putin runs Russia's various capacities into the ground, pretty much across the board, his freedom of action to avoid any specific point of failure is reduced.

It's like (ironically) Russian roulette.  You can know how many chambers the pistol has and that there is only one bullet in it.  You can understand how pulling the trigger operates the pistol and what the outcome is if it's an empty or full chamber.  You can also understand the outcome of a round being touched off while the barrel is pressed to the side of the head.  But if you think you have 4 more pulls on the trigger and really only have 2... well... all of that knowledge doesn't stop your brains from being spread out over the adjacent wall.

To summarize... the worse things get for Russia the less room there is for Putin to make mistakes.  I question if Putin has information and advice of a quality level sufficient to keep his regime intact as it is now.

Steve

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To summarize... the worse things get for Russia the less room there is for Putin to make mistakes.  I question if Putin has information and advice of a quality level sufficient to keep his regime intact as it is now.

Steve

When you are betting on a razor thin margin for failure, the things outside your control now have an even more outsize effect. 

Like the Saudis deciding to pump more oil. oops 

or Iran suddenly engaged in a direct conflict with Israel and not being in the same position to keep sending weapons they might need themselves..  oops. 

or China having its own internal economic crisis and not being willing to throw money and resources toward Russia... oops

[Vic4]

Well one thing is for sure; they will continue stooping to new lows until they get to...

‘Everything is dead’: Ukraine rushes to stem ecocide after river poisoning
Russia is suspected of deliberately leaking chemical waste into a river, with deadly consequences for wildlife

https://apple.news/A4eB1cmVdS4iU8k_SG4Gtfg

[OldSarge]

Oops, sburke beat me to it. 

Edited 26 minutes ago by OldSarge