How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

UVG drone delivered artillery shell.

Quote

Novogrodovka , Pokrovsky district, Donetsk region: a combat turtle blows up a tunnel under a railway

 

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

This seems unlikely given the missile was going to hit the turret....and Merkava's do not store ammunition in said turret at all. 

Really the footage is inconclusive until we know more, but the fact the TC has been warned by the system and has time to duck down to me says a lot that the system has indeed detected the threat and reacted. APS does operate very close to the tank, so not sure what you mean by it being activated really close? APS intercepts typically happen just metres from the tank. 

I agree the footage is inconclusive, so I think it's a bad idea to presume the best case outcome (as you did).  Especially when it is widely know that Trophy has significant limitations when dealing with anything coming in from above.  

OK, so you don't like my explanation of the ground footage.  What's your explanation for the sequence of strike, smoke, and massive explosion?

As for the APS being activated, that's clearly seen.  But that is not relevant as it only shows that the system reacted, not that he system was effective.

As for the proximity, here's some test footage which shows interception being more like 5m or so from the vehicle.  That is consistent with my understanding of the system.  From the footage it looks like the munition was much closer than that before the APS reacted.  I'd guess maybe 2m by the looks of both the munition and the ground POV.

So, from the evidence I'd say we have an interesting and isolated example that appears to show APS reacting to a top attack munition (good) and failing to defeat it (bad).

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

36 minutes ago, Général_Hiver said:

Thanks for sharing this. I wonder if this could prove an interesting genesis for a CM scenario/ campaign? I must think on this.

The problem is to replicate the real world outcome the player would have to deliberately play the Russians stupidly.

[Sojourner]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Am I in favour of the government teaching my kids how to think?

That's a curious remark, my take on it is that it wasn't so how to think, but rather just to think. Something that's been largely absent from US school curricula for at least the past 20-30 years. And look where that's got us today, gullibility* is running rampant and conspiracy theories abound.

 

* e.g. immigrant's eating pets, tariffs are good for the economy, the last election was stolen, etc.

 

[JonS]

I meant 'how' in the sense of a methodology for thinking through issues, rather than 'how' in the sense of what specific opinions they should hold.

But yes, the second half of your post is the obvious "small government!" and "freedom!" counterpoint to what the Finns are doing.

[sburke]

Ukrainian General Staff confirms strike on Kotluban arsenal housing Iranian missiles (msn.com)

[sburke]

Russia is about to face the moment of truth on an economic lifeline from China (msn.com)

China's yuan is the most traded foreign currency in Russia, but its availability in the heavily sanctioned country may soon dry up.

That would threaten a critical lifeline for Russian businesses, which became heavily reliant on the yuan as trade with China ramped up after President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The war triggered Western sanctions that largely shut out Russia from the global financial system.

In June, the U.S. expanded its sanctions, forcing the Moscow Exchange and its clearing agent to halt trading in dollars and euros. A Treasury Department license that allows time for some transactions to wind down will expire on Oct. 12.

While Russia had already shifted away from Western currencies in favor of the yuan, the additional U.S. sanctions could have spillover effects on Chinese banks that engage in yuan transactions with Russia.

"The situation may change after Oct. 12," a source told Reuters. "An abrupt shortage of yuan or a complete refusal to accept payments from Russia by Chinese banks is possible."

That's because all conversion operations, including for Chinese banks' subsidiaries, will stop, and all open foreign exchange positions via the Moscow Exchange will be closed, the report added.

"Accordingly, the situation with the supply of yuan liquidity will become even more difficult," the source told Reuters.

On top of that, the Russian unit of Austria's Raiffeisen Bank began refusing to make payments to China earlier this month, the report said.

Yuan liquidity in Russia was already under strain after the U.S. expanded its definition of Russia’s military industry earlier this year, widening the potential scope of Chinese firms that could get hit with secondary sanctions for doing business with Moscow.

As a result, Chinese banks have been reluctant to transfer yuan to Russian counterparts while servicing foreign trade payments, leaving transactions in limbo for months. With yuan liquidity drying up from China, Russian companies tapped the central bank for yuan via currency swaps.

But the Bank of Russia dashed hopes for more liquidity, saying that the swaps are only meant for short-term stabilization of the domestic currency market and are not a long-term source of funding.

Russian banks have more than halved their swap borrowings, which dropped to 15.4 billion yuan ($2.19 billion) on Wednesday from their high of 35.2 billion yuan in early September, according to Reuters.

“We cannot lend in yuan, because we have nothing to cover our foreign currency positions with,” German Gref, CEO of top Russian lender Sberbank, said at an economic forum earlier this month.

For now, Russia's wartime spending as well as oil exports to China and India have helped prop up the overall economy. But the combination of busy factories and labor shortages due to military mobilizations have stoked more inflation. Meanwhile, Russia is suffering through a spiraling population crisis.

Researchers led by Yale’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld warned in August that seemingly robust GDP data mask deeper problems in the economy.

"While the defense industry expands, Russian consumers are increasingly burdened with debt, potentially setting the stage for a looming crisis," they wrote. "The excessive focus on military spending is crowding out productive investments in other sectors of the economy, stifling long-term growth prospects and innovation."

 

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, sburke said:

Ukrainian General Staff confirms strike on Kotluban arsenal housing Iranian missiles (msn.com)

I have no doubts that on this one, at least, the Ukrainians were aided directly by US intelligence.  The US explicitly warned Iran that there would be consequences if they made such a move.  I can think of no better consequence than all that stuff getting blown up on Russian soil.  OK, blown up on Iranian soil, but I'm fine with the second best outcome.

Steve