How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

8 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Thank you for mentioning, because I absolutely remember that this was a thing as far back late 2022 (autumn, winter), experimental and as a concept, tried by Ukraine pretty sure, and there was already a discussion about the feasibility of dragging a wire behind a drone and why it's different than a TOW missile.

I know that there is currently one Ukrainian initiative to build drones with glass fibre that is collecting. It seems to have some application in specific use cases.

Fiber is very different to deal with than wire.  And bare fiber is very different than jacketed fiber.  I got called in to fix someone's fiber problem where they were breaking fibers left and right and having spools explode on the shelf.  It was all bare fiber.  I substituted fiber with a decent jacket and after than broke only a single fiber in I think 3 years and that was basically by accidentally doing the equivalent of smashing it into open scissors with a hammer.

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, CHARLIE43 said:

To me, this thread is pointless. Talking about some invention or tactic that will bring the war to an end, when we all know how it ends.

I think this thread is one of the last places where people would claim that a tactical change would decide the whole war. 

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You won't bring Russia to it's knees by ruining their economy. On the contrary.

Strange, why did hundreds of thousands of Russian troops move out of Eastern Europe after 1991?

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Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia? Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this?

Now that is a point. The West is woefully behind in terms of hybrid warfare, both in defense and offense.

Russia, China and Iran are currently running circles around us while punching our nuts, respectively ovaries for the ladies, in the hybrid area. 

The West should improve its defenses (e.g. legal consequences for foreign assets, sweeps for saboteurs and information leaks) and improve its offenses (diplomatic offenses to pull non-Western countries into decreasing economic ties with Russia by offering them sexy alternatives, offer support to groups which are in conflict with proxy forces of the RIC Axis, and get some IT nerds to find out how to sell Russia some Israeli pagers).

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Once you bring the population to it's knees, only hatred and resentment remain, leading to more violence and death.

The Germans and the Japanese seem pretty chill since 1945 and boy did the Japanese state approved death cult look like what the Russian regime seems to promote.

Edited 2 hours ago by Carolus

[LongLeftFlank]

3 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

To me, this thread is pointless. Talking about some invention or tactic that will bring the war to an end, when we all know how it ends. Tit for tat, lines move back and forth with bodies piling up until finally someone gets a wild hair and then the mushroom clouds start forming. Scary thought, ain't it? Well that's where all this is heading.

You won't bring Russia to it's knees by ruining their economy. On the contrary. All that will do is make no other alternative for the population to take up arms against what has become a deep seeded hatred for those they perceive as responsible for destroying their livelihood. We know it's Putin's aggression towards Ukraine, but from some of the documentaries I've seen there is quite a vacuum as far as information from the outside. People now loath the West. Even if they do manage to hear the truth, there aren't enough of them or they're too oppressed to do anything about it. Why aren't we doing more to turn the narrative inside Russia? Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this? We are approaching the point of no return. Once you bring the population to it's knees, only hatred and resentment remain, leading to more violence and death. And we're not talking about a relatively small country in the Middle East, mind you but a nuclear power with more than enough missiles to make life very less comfy for everyone in the crosshairs. Bring Russia to it's knees? Think about what that may lead to and we're both looking for knee pads, guaranteed.

The irony is that we've been through all this before and should known better. Instead we'd been too invested in our own misguided adventures in the the ME and elsewhere. Reinventing the wheel won't solve this conflict. It will just make the wagon roll a bit faster towards the bitter end. So carry on with the conversation if you will. In the end it doesn't really matter much anyways. The next war will be fought with sticks and stones, until someone reinvents the slingshot, etc, ad nauseam.

First of all, welcome.

Second, this is a tactical wargaming forum, primarily composed of longtime (and mainly over 50) wargamers, some of whom have some RL military experience, and a few of whom have rather a lot, for which we are thankful.

So, perhaps manage your expectations within that context. Cheers

****

My generals understand nothing about the economic aspects of the war!

(AH had a point there, although he himself 'knew' even less, or rather, what he 'knew' was bollox)

****

As to the resilience and staying power of the Russian economy, I am reminded of the oft-quoted Hemingway dialogue from 'Sun':

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

Edited 1 hour ago by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

On 8/31/2022 at 6:03 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

Interesting backstory:

Since his father was one of Tyva’s major party bosses, Sergey Shoygu knew many important people. From 1987 to 1989 Boris Yeltsin held a similar position in the construction committee.

 

In 1991, Mr. Shoygu became the head of the Russian Rescue Corps, which, after a series of reorganizations and name changes, became today’s Ministry for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters, internationally abbreviated as EMERCOM.... In the aftermath of the worst disasters, Mr. Shoygu was always sure to be seen managing the recovery efforts.

 

However, EMERCOM’s structure is peculiar in that it is heavily militarized, which prompts many questions. Why does it count over a hundred generals among its staff? ...President Yeltsin was proactive enough to create a trusted, alternate army – a personal guard that would be able to intervene in case of a political “emergency.”

Resurrecting an old post giving source material on Shoigu's background. For all his military ineptitude, he remains one of the top politician-oligarchs in Russia and his alliance with Putin's Petersburg-siloviki gang has been a very fruitful one for all concerned.

Like Putin, he was a handpicked protege of Yeltsin's governing council in the late 90s. His family background/ training is in Siberian oil & gas construction (with the accompanying huge self enrichment opps). He had his own political party, briefly, before throwing in with United Russia.

He is seen as no serious threat to Putin for the top slot given that he's an Asiatic.

Girkin's term 'Plywood marshal' is a racial slur btw, the Russian n-word for Asiatic Siberians is 'churkas' = 'wood chips'

[mosuri]

10 hours ago, billbindc said:

Inter alia, using "guys" to refer to people in general is an obvious tip off. A very American and especially NY/NJ colloquialism that is not going to come up Google translating from Ukrainian or Russian into English. "Yuge85" is either one of our old trolls reskinned or some sad sack demolishing a bag of Московскии Картофел for his hourly fee.

One feels drawing conclusions from a single expression is going out on a bit of a limb.

You guys should know that US and UK media does a great job in spreading a wealth of vernacular expressions around the world. I've lost count how much I've picked up from various sources, although luckily I did start reading English lit at an early age so there's something more solid than only sitcom scripts somewhere down there.

I guess Hill Street Blues and Seinfeld would fall into NY/NJ bucket. Later in life I might have picked up things from US work colleagues. But if we had series taking place in US South on local TV when I was a kid, maybe I'd be talking to all y'all even funnier than I am now.

Anyhow, I don't disagree with the overall conclusion.

[chuckdyke]

Still fascinating how a 'Brom' here communicates effectively with a Pinoy here. People soon build up a rapport. Ukrainians and Russians should be able to do the same if they want to. 

[KoopCL]

3 hours ago, CHARLIE43 said:

 Because it seems more important to "play army" and show one man that he can't win, as opposed to showing his people that it shouldn't have to be like this?

Hello everyone, long time lurker, wanted to drop my 2 cents when it comes to this quote in particular.

 

Two problems with the logic; the first may seem counterintuitive, but Russia's populace at large seems to be rather apathetic to politics in general (which, to be fair, seems to be by design: if your populace in not interested in politics they will not vote you out, or ask too many questions, or worry that all opposition seems to be in jail or exiled; we had a similar phenomenon with Pinochet eroding trust in "politicians" as their own separate class of people, better to leave it to the army, because an apathetic populace is a calmed populace). If suddenly you dedicate all your propaganda efforts to show the average Russian "looks how **** your life is! Looks how it compares to ours! Look how the mafia in charge takes advantage of you!" you may have the unintended consequence of having these people pushed further in denial or towards support for the regime because you force them to ask the very uncomfortable question of "why did we let it go this far? Why did we silently support ourselves being lied to?". Its easier to go further into denial than to admit that your life sucks because you haven't taken the steps to improve it and instead relied on the comfort of familiarity, its the same twisted train of thoughts that happens with conspiracy theorists faced with undeniable evidence that they are nuts, or with victims in abusive relationships. Add how proud of their nation the average Russian seems to be and its a recipe for disaster.

 

The second issue, is that it already happened. Post Yeltsin, arguably until 2022 and for sure until 2014, Russia was part of the world at large same as Poland, or Germany, or China. Russians could (and would, and still do) visit other countries, have expat communities, access to the internet, migrant family members living abroad, visitors and tourists coming to Russia, etc. They don't discredit stuff like "they have political participation!" and "there's opposition parties" and "there's international cooperation" and "everyone has indoor plumbing!" because they think it's a bunch of unbelievable lies; they have been able too see that with their own eyes; putting it as an ad on a hacked Russian TV channel wont do anything to "motivate the populace". There's no point to tell them "if you rebel against Putin, your living standards may reach those of the average German!" when you have a huge community of Russians living in Germany, enjoying their standards of living, and still fervently supporting Putin (if they express an opinion at all). 

 

You know what the West didn't do for all those years that they were "showing his people it shouldn't be like this"? "Play army". And what were the consequences? Putin felt emboldened to go to ever larger and larger military expeditions until the straw broke the camels back.