How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[hcrof]

Some thoughts on the attack

 

[The_Capt]

16 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The problem is not with us. 

You said

And here is reality check - RU comment regarding HIMARS

The truth is - your idea about all seeing magical operational and strategic eyes with wonder OTH strikes is pure fantasy.

RU do not see anything if there is no RU  drone above it. 

Or do you want to know What RU Commander of the 58th Army of the Southern District, Major General Ivan Popov (called by RU as breaker of UKR summer offense) called the main tragedy of modern war?

• Not Magic Operational and Strategic "eyes"
• Not Wonder OTH strikes against RU logistics
• Not Wonder OTH strikes against larger then company RU formations

It was UKR artillery murdering RU front line soldiers (that was before FPVs). Just like I said quoting RU officer that RU main reason to disperse is UKR artillery, not your fantasy about magical eyes and wonder OTH strikes against logistics and formations in the rear.

I have posted numerous sources that have highlighted the layered ISR reality of this battlefield.  You recall the source that noted the US was handing off satellite imagery 32 times a day.  The RA had a pretty robust ISR complex before this war, and even though it has been eroded the idea that all they have left is drones is utter fantasy.  Basically you are micro-masking at the tactical level - if a tactical commander does not note it, it isn't happening.  We have seen plenty of evidence of deep strikes on RA logistics, repeatedly...the UA just hit a f#cking submarine...again.  How do you suppose the made that happen...voodoo?  No, it was strategic ISR.

For you this war is basically tactical level and nothing else.  Somehow both Ukraine and Russia no long have an operational or strategic level of warfare (C4ISR and Strike) because it does not show up on Telegram feeds. Logistics is an after thought.  It all comes down to each sq km and a drone feed. The problem is very much with you. 

 

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Some thoughts on the attack

 

Now that makes much more sense.  How about good old Russia @ss covering and denial?

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Just how densely manned was this front?  What aviation and interceptor drones?  I have seen nothing (besides you) make the claim that this was a highly defended, heavily mined, covered by all sorts of artillery, frontage.  The RA is already stretched thin across the invasion front, let alone its own border.  Where did all these assets the UA neutralized come from.  Frankly, this borders on propaganda inflation.

At least two downed helicopters you saw already . Let's looks guided bombs and mines - UKR source

Quote

As of now, there is a decrease in the activity of KAB near Kursk, they work mainly with unguided aircraft missiles...

It is also interesting that there was a hefty number of mines in the area where it all started. Where they all went is unknown

• RU did tried to use guided bombs and but something went wrong
• There was hefty amount of mines (one day I will give description of RU mega minefields) but they all disappeared
• At least two helicopters damaged/destroyed 

So, it was not as weak defense as you claim. It weak infantry forces were sufficient to hold UKR with mines, bombs and helicopters, until reinforcements arrive. But something went wrong with guided bombs, mine dissapeared, helicopters got hit, drones were jammed.

This is the truth. Idea that there were nothing there is...well, pure fantasy. 

[hcrof]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I have posted numerous sources that have highlighted the layered ISR reality of this battlefield.  You recall the source that noted the US was handing off satellite imagery 32 times a day.  The RA had a pretty robust ISR complex before this war, and even though it has been eroded the idea that all they have left is drones is utter fantasy.  Basically you are micro-masking at the tactical level - if a tactical commander does not note it, it isn't happening.  We have seen plenty of evidence of deep strikes on RA logistics, repeatedly...the UA just hit a f#cking submarine...again.  How do you suppose the made that happen...voodoo?  No, it was strategic ISR.

For you this war is basically tactical level and nothing else.  Somehow both Ukraine and Russia no long have an operational or strategic level of warfare (C4ISR and Strike) because it does not show up on Telegram feeds. Logistics is an after thought.  It all comes down to each sq km and a drone feed. The problem is very much with you. 

 

I think you are being a bit reactionary here. If the border was lightly defended it stands to reason that Russia would only have a few supporting/ISR assets which is less robust if Ukraine decides to attack them with a big EW/drone overwatch. The initial incursion was done by only a few hundred soldiers and the exploitation forces seem to be on wheeled vehicles so could have arrived from 100km away in a few hours. 

To me this attack seems to be exactly what I have advocated for earlier in the thread, although o recognise that it is much harder to pull off in the Donbass (probably beyond Ukrainian capacity at the moment).

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

At least two downed helicopters you saw already . Let's looks guided bombs and mines - UKR source

• RU did tried to use guided bombs and but something went wrong
• There was hefty amount of mines (one day I will give description of RU mega minefields) but they all disappeared
• At least two helicopters damaged/destroyed 

So, it was not as weak defense as you claim. It weak infantry forces were sufficient to hold UKR with mines, bombs and helicopters, until reinforcements arrive. But something went wrong with guided bombs, mine dissapeared, helicopters got hit, drones were jammed.

This is the truth. Idea that there were nothing there is...well, pure fantasy. 

Dude you are all over the map here.  Ok, two glide bombs got dunked...wow.  Two whole helicopters.  And mega minefields that only you seem to know about.  And without drones the Russian are completely blind - but, and I quote "We must not fall in the trap of extreme thinking. Drones changed everything but they did not invalidated previous tenets of warfare."  A central tenant of warfare is the operational function of Sense - if drones are all Russia really has, then they have fundamentally changed that operational function.  I am not being "extreme" you are, the RA had a lot of ISR equipment before this war, so unless it has all been destroyed then you are pushing complete fantasy.

This is a 5km raid across a thinly defended border, with a decent dose of RA incompetence and culture. Not a drive to freaking Moscow.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Let's looks guided bombs and mines - UKR source

Is it possible that either the Ukrainian deep strike campaign has truly disrupted the supply of of glide bombs? Or has someone finally figured out how to jam whatever they are using for a guidance signal? If either of these things are true? and I really don't think we know that, yet? How long will it hold for?

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I think you are being a bit reactionary here. If the border was lightly defended it stands to reason that Russia would only have a few supporting/ISR assets which is less robust if Ukraine decides to attack them with a big EW/drone overwatch. The initial incursion was done by only a few hundred soldiers and the exploitation forces seem to be on wheeled vehicles so could have arrived from 100km away in a few hours. 

To me this attack seems to be exactly what I have advocated for earlier in the thread, although o recognise that it is much harder to pull off in the Donbass (probably beyond Ukrainian capacity at the moment).

You missed the older argument we had a dozen pages back. I have no doubt RA ISR was weak in this area, they have limited resources and one helluva front line to worry about.  They might have even been reliant on drones in this sector because everything higher was tasked elsewhere.   But Russia has other ISR:

https://odin.tradoc.army.mil/WEG/List/ORIGIN_russia--rus--f8577e&DOM_land-f5e1db&DOM_radar-systems-199892

https://www.key.aero/article/depth-review-russias-current-isr-aircraft

Reducing Russias entire ISR complex down to "drones" is simply foolish and unsupported by facts.

[sburke]

before we get too hyped declaring maneuver warfare is back on!  or Russia is about to collapse or whatever exuberant feeling we have- Sudzha is only about 10 km over the border.  Yes it is great to see the UA embarrass Putin, but beyond a local tactical victory and a finger in Putin's eye the day after he tells Ukraine - better ceasefire now or it will only get worse for you!, this isn't the drive on Moscow.

Be more interested to see what the UA is thinking.  Is this a test run?  A plan to force Russia to spread its resources even further?

But more importantly I am still wondering what tigers in trees has to do with me covering myself in peanut butter.

[hcrof]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Is it possible that either the Ukrainian deep strike campaign has truly disrupted the supply of of glide bombs? Or has someone finally figured out how to jam whatever they are using for a guidance signal? If either of these things are true? and I really don't think we know that, yet? How long will it hold for?

I think some of the local depots were destroyed, so it is a temporary shortage if anything.

[The_Capt]

Just now, sburke said:

before we get too hyped declaring maneuver warfare is back on!  or Russia is about to collapse or whatever exuberant feeling we have- Sudzha is only about 10 km over the border.  Yes it is great to see the UA embarrass Putin, but beyond a local tactical victory and a finger in Putin's eye the day after he tells Ukraine - better ceasefire now or it will only get worse for you!, this isn't the drive on Moscow.

Be more interested to see what the UA is thinking.  Is this a test run?  A plan to force Russia to spread its resources even further?

But more importantly I am still wondering what tigers in trees has to do with me covering myself in peanut butter.

Tigers love peanut butter...c'mon, everyone knows this.  Bears love honey, Tigers love peanut butter and sharks, whatever the hell they want.

[hcrof]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

before we get too hyped declaring maneuver warfare is back on!  or Russia is about to collapse or whatever exuberant feeling we have- Sudzha is only about 10 km over the border.  Yes it is great to see the UA embarrass Putin, but beyond a local tactical victory and a finger in Putin's eye the day after he tells Ukraine - better ceasefire now or it will only get worse for you!, this isn't the drive on Moscow.

Be more interested to see what the UA is thinking.  Is this a test run?  A plan to force Russia to spread its resources even further?

But more importantly I am still wondering what tigers in trees has to do with me covering myself in peanut butter.

Agreed we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here. I think the raid (if that's what it is) is a sign of things to come but was only possible on a very lightly defended section of front. In other areas I think this is too tough to pull off until the balance of forces shifts in Ukraines favour.

[LuckyDog]

Hopefully, this is another sign of a crack (assuming the source is legit): 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-railway-collapse-sanctions-ukraine-war-1935049

A ballbearing shortage for the Russian railways will make troop movements harder, drive up prices due to trucking, and wear out trucks faster.

[Grigb]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I have posted numerous sources that have highlighted the layered ISR reality of this battlefield.  You recall the source that noted the US was handing off satellite imagery 32 times a day. 

And I posted fact that layered ISR and handing off satellite imagery 32 times a day completely failed to detect RU tank regiment operating DF at Avdiivka and taking almost no losses from anything but tactical drones. As well as numerous cases where RU litteraly used armored columns directly on front lines suffering losses mostly from tactical weapons (no wonder OTH strikes at large formations).  

 

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 The RA had a pretty robust ISR complex before this war, and even though it has been eroded the idea that all they have left is drones is utter fantasy. 

I have give you literal quote from RU officer. You gave nothing but your own fantasy based on quotes of guys who previously thought RU army is competent force. 

 

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Basically you are micro-masking at the tactical level - if a tactical commander does not note it, it isn't happening. 

I literally just gave you statement from Major General Ivan Popov, back in 23 commander of 58th Army of the Southern District, who complained to Shoigu not about magic eyes, not about wonder OTH strikes on logistics, not about wonder strikes at his large formation. No, he called the main tragedy of the war - UKR artillery that was killing boys on frontlines. 

Nobody on RU side (including top RU generals) talks much about the eyes, OTH strikes and alike. Sometimes they mention eyes or fuel shortages. But that's it. 

 

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

  We have seen plenty of evidence of deep strikes on RA logistics, repeatedly...

Yes, we have. You have not seen the extend it affects RU. I have. Effect is good but vastly exaggerated. They mitigated it to the extend by switching to large amount of smaller dispersed civilians cars. Literally. They fuel tanks with small pickups masked as some unimportant logistical vehicle. 

 

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

.the UA just hit a f#cking submarine...again.

RU quietly thanked UKR for that - they do not need to spend money trying to repair crappy submarine. 

 

Quote

  How do you suppose the made that happen...voodoo?  No, it was strategic ISR.

I am not denying that strikes are happening. What I deny is your fantasy about their overall effect. It is good but not at great as you claim and they did not cause the shift in warfare we see.

 

Quote

For you this war is basically tactical level and nothing else.  Somehow both Ukraine and Russia no long have an operational or strategic level of warfare (C4ISR and Strike) because it does not show up on Telegram feeds. Logistics is an after thought.  It all comes down to each sq km and a drone feed. The problem is very much with you. 

For me is what RU Nats from privates to Generals says. Non of them ever complained much about warfare defining effects that you claim are everywhere. 

I repeat - nobody on RU side (including generals) complains much about magic eyes, wonder OTH strikes on logistics or wonder strikes at large formation (they do complain about eyes and logistics strikes a little).

They all state very clearly that drone adjusted artillery and FPV drones is what changed warfare. 

The problem is very much with you.

[Grigb]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dude you are all over the map here.  Ok, two glide bombs got dunked...wow.  Two whole helicopters.  And mega minefields that only you seem to know about.  And without drones the Russian are completely blind - but, and I quote "We must not fall in the trap of extreme thinking. Drones changed everything but they did not invalidated previous tenets of warfare."  A central tenant of warfare is the operational function of Sense - if drones are all Russia really has, then they have fundamentally changed that operational function.  I am not being "extreme" you are, the RA had a lot of ISR equipment before this war, so unless it has all been destroyed then you are pushing complete fantasy.

You just being ignorant. RU claims they have modern working ISR equipment is not equal to they have modern working ISR equipment. I personally saw infamous S-300 when I enrolled. From that time whenever I hear about RU having modern SAMs I laugh.

 

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is a 5km raid across a thinly defended border, with a decent dose of RA incompetence and culture. Not a drive to freaking Moscow.

Capt, you are sick. I litteraly told you that it is already 25 km raid. It was 15 km in the morning. Yet, here you are with 5 km BS. 

Enough of your BS from today. I am out for some time.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Russian sources are saying at least 20km. Though take with a grain of salt.

While mechanised warfare is clearly not applicable over the entire front (due to evenly matched forces and mines ect) Its effect is clear here. Attacking weakly held positions with the appropriate support and you gain swathes of territory and lots of prisoners. I am still sceptical of the aims (its must be diversionary surely) but the effects are clear. 

This is just embarrassing for the Russians. 

[FancyCat]

There is a facet to this raid not largely spoken, which is normalization of the erosion of the Russian border as a hard red line. We all recall the yelling done from the Freedom of Russia Legion, a lot less yelling now from Russia. Lots of reasons for it, but considering how it was in the past, interesting paths are opening, whether or not Ukraine takes them is another matter, but Russia has been relying on the border as a red line, Ukrainian actions are eroding it.

Anything that forces Russia to invest resources along the long frontline to ensure that raids from UKR dont become territory taking raids is only a plus.

[Tenses]

All in all this raid actually might make sense.

Russia to make progress requires extreme numerical superiority and waves of meat. If they will be forced to distribute more evenly on the entire front, this will not be possible. Actually attacking in Kharkiv was a shot in the foot and probably was seen by Ukrainians that current border forces with just slight support can fight and defend against major incursions.

Ukraine has to somehow stop the growth of Avdiivka tumor and forcing Russians to disperse might be the best way to do that. Russia can largely ignore such incursions, if they are small as before, but this one is up to this point highly successful. 

I wish them luck and hopefully we will see some stabilization of the front finally. This is very needed to stop giving even small patches of ground for russian meat. It is much better to kill them where they stand.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

And I posted fact that layered ISR and handing off satellite imagery 32 times a day completely failed to detect RU tank regiment operating DF at Avdiivka and taking almost no losses from anything but tactical drones. As well as numerous cases where RU litteraly used armored columns directly on front lines suffering losses mostly from tactical weapons (no wonder OTH strikes at large formations).  

 

I have give you literal quote from RU officer. You gave nothing but your own fantasy based on quotes of guys who previously thought RU army is competent force. 

 

I literally just gave you statement from Major General Ivan Popov, back in 23 commander of 58th Army of the Southern District, who complained to Shoigu not about magic eyes, not about wonder OTH strikes on logistics, not about wonder strikes at his large formation. No, he called the main tragedy of the war - UKR artillery that was killing boys on frontlines. 

Nobody on RU side (including top RU generals) talks much about the eyes, OTH strikes and alike. Sometimes they mention eyes or fuel shortages. But that's it. 

 

Yes, we have. You have not seen the extend it affects RU. I have. Effect is good but vastly exaggerated. They mitigated it to the extend by switching to large amount of smaller dispersed civilians cars. Literally. They fuel tanks with small pickups masked as some unimportant logistical vehicle. 

 

RU quietly thanked UKR for that - they do not need to spend money trying to repair crappy submarine. 

 

I am not denying that strikes are happening. What I deny is your fantasy about their overall effect. It is good but not at great as you claim and they did not cause the shift in warfare we see.

 

For me is what RU Nats from privates to Generals says. Non of them ever complained much about warfare defining effects that you claim are everywhere. 

I repeat - nobody on RU side (including generals) complains much about magic eyes, wonder OTH strikes on logistics or wonder strikes at large formation (they do complain about eyes and logistics strikes a little).

They all state very clearly that drone adjusted artillery and FPV drones is what changed warfare. 

The problem is very much with you.

So wait a minute...you are sourcing the expertise in judging western ISR and deep strikes in this war on " RU Nats from privates to Generals says".  So the fact that the RA had to completely change its logistical laydown and planning in Fall '22 once the HIMARs were fielded wasn't openly admitted by RU Nats?  Well that is a shocking surprise.

The overall effects are plainly seen in OS loss counter sites such as Oryx - which again I have cited multiple times.  3500 logistical vehicles...what do you suppose they were carrying when they got blown up?

What I am saying, backed up by cited evidence that is not RU Nats, is that the US military has pushed the greatest C4ISR complex in the history of human warfare at this problem.  They have put embeds into the UA and lashed up feeds. You are arguing that somehow the US C4ISR isn't being noted by RU Nats from private to general....that is because they likely do not have a freakin clue what that C4ISR complex looks like or even that it could exist. 

I have no idea what the story with that "Tank Regt" at Adiivka was, maybe it was similar to those "massive minefields belts" along the border at Kursk.  A tank regt is at least 3 full battalions of armor.  Based on Russian orbats we are talking over 100 tanks. You are telling me that 100 tanks rolled down the road at Adiivka without being picked up...in this environment?  Here is a crazy idea...the UA saw them but were so low on resources last winter that they could not do anything about it.  That is not "surprise" it is, wait for it, collapse.

Meanwhile, this C4ISR complex is "fantasy" but the idea that the RA "only has drones" for ISR is grounded and well thought out assessment?  No, you are the one being too narrow and too extreme.  You get some good stuff for this thread, no questioning that.  But your assessments leave a lot to be desired.

I suggest you put the "RU Nats" down for a bit and start looking elsewhere:

https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3252&context=parameters

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/airpower-after-ukraine/early-lessons-from-the-russia-ukraine-war-as-a-space-conflict/

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-ukraines-offensive-operations-2022-23

"There are a great many tactical lessons identified in this paper. Some, however, raise questions about necessary adaptations to prevailing doctrine. First, there is a need to have an effective counter-reconnaissance capability to reduce sustained enemy observation of the intended axes of advance. The inability to screen axes of advance from enemy ISR risks sustained exposure to precision fires, producing an unacceptable rate of equipment loss."

"At the same time, there is the dilemma, noted above, of how a force that must create a time-limited snowdome of protection from precision fires can avoid increasing its exposure to statistical artillery (non-precision munitions). The old answer – to win the counterfires battle – is only a partial solution, because highfidelity ISR now allows fewer guns to deliver more concentrated effects, thus raising the threshold of suppression needed to protect the force."

 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

You just being ignorant. RU claims they have modern working ISR equipment is not equal to they have modern working ISR equipment. I personally saw infamous S-300 when I enrolled. From that time whenever I hear about RU having modern SAMs I laugh.

 

Capt, you are sick. I litteraly told you that it is already 25 km raid. It was 15 km in the morning. Yet, here you are with 5 km BS. 

Enough of your BS from today. I am out for some time.

We know Russian SAMs work otherwise Ukraine would have air superiority. Air mutual denial has been noted as part of this war for nearly two years. So something is keeping the Ukrainian Air Force back...must be those Russian drones.

You "claim" a 25km raid.  I will wait until a more credible source comes along to confirm it.

Look, clearly you are fully convinced based on your "RU Nats."  Fine, go with it.  But it may surprise you to learn that there is a whole lot more going on than what those "RU Nats" are saying.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Perhaps something very telling is that Ukraine are already recovering vehicles without too much trouble in the region. This is usually a target prioritised above all overs by drone or artillery asset and also suggests a pretty heavy penetration. 

[FancyCat]

Quote

JUST NOW: State Dept on the latest Ukrainian operation: “Ultimately, the decisions about how Ukraine conducts its military operations are decisions that Ukraine makes,” DoS Spox tells me 1/2

DoS Spox: “I have seen the statements from the Russian government is a little bit rich - them calling up to the provocation given Russia violated Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty, you said, 900 days, and actually goes back much longer. That goes back to 2014 and continues to illegally occupy Ukrainian territory. Ultimately, the decisions about how Ukraine conducts its military operations are decisions that Ukraine makes.”

DoS Spox Miller: "It's not unusual for the Ukrainians not to notify us that their exact tactics before, before they execute them. It's a war that they they're conducting. We provide them with equipment. We provide them with advice, but when it comes to the kind of day by day tactics that they carry out, strikes that they take, sometimes more communications about them, sometimes we're not. It's appropriate for them to make those decisions"

 

[Grigb]

RU claim

Quote

07.08.2024 Kursk region, Russia.

Maps with the designation of the territories of the Kursk region occupied by Ukraine were relevant at 13:00.

For now: - there is a battle in the city of Sudzha. The enemy also encircles it., brings up more armored vehicles;

- the defending forces of the Russian Armed Forces completely lack [any] communication;

- the total area of the territory of the Kursk region occupied by the enemy is at least 90 km2; - currently, two brigades of the AFU have entered into the territory of the Kursk region, while the enemy has a reserve of at least 8 brigades.

 

[Grigb]

Agent 13th reports

Quote

As of 15:35, Suszha was already surrounded by the enemy.

Novoivanovka (51.322102289720746, 35.09974010100447) and Malaya Loknya (51.33041130466978, 35.22435283694685) were occupied by the enemy.

The enemy's EW is working at full power in Sudzha, our "eyes" [drones] are dropping [down].

 

[dan/california]

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/war-on-the-rocks/id682478916?i=1000664607929

A really good podcast about the difficulties of adapting to a world where few , expensive, and exquisite is just not going to work. A lot of it is theoretical and cyber focused, but not all off it. Cyber, EW, an a lot of other things in Ukraine work on two week cycle, or LESS. The rest of the world is not ready for this, not even a little bit.