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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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RU report (raw translation)

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...One thing is clear, that the enemy has entered our territory and is gaining a foothold. This means that in the coming days this area will be the site of intense fighting. 

The initial information about the insignificant enemy forces was not a lie. After conducting reconnaissance in battle, having the opportunity to move deeper into the territory, the enemy brought reserves into battle, which gained a foothold and were able to move deeper into our territory. 

This operation differs from the Belgorod operation in the presence of a larger number of personnel and equipment that participate in the offensive...

 

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Thanks for all that.

So it seems that the consensus on the Russian side, by bloggers who have shown some interest in the truth, is that the Ukrainian operation is more involved than the previous Russian liberation raids.  It's still impossible to know for sure what is going on, but it does look like this is true.  However, it could still be just a raid style attack where the intention is to be disruptive and then pull out, with the difference being how much force is committed to the action (i.e. more than previous ones).

Steve

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Rybar hysterics

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...However, the enemy had been accumulating strength for two months. For two months, all the information was sent to useless higher headquarters. There was enough time to make the appropriate decision. In the Kursk region, the lessons from the Belgorod sad and tragic experience were not taken into account. As a result, we see how the [border] cover group, consisting of lions, tigers, heroes, legendary dads and other heroes of fashionable reports, turned out to be dysfunctional...

 

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Nesmyan (RU civilian Girkin) about Putin statement

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Judging by Putin's statement, [they] did not risk increasing the degree of escalation. The events were called a "large-scale provocation", [they] ordered to stop it, help the population and put the provocateurs on the wanted list. What they will say not publicly is another matter, but formally nothing changes. Well, that's good...

 

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RU ex VKS pilot now blogger Fighterbomber

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If the Ukrainians somehow break into the nuclear power plant zone, then we will not be able to use aviation and heavy weapons against them. This means that the infantry will have to knock them out, with the total ... [UKR FPV] superiority... Yes, 60 km is a lot. But even 15 km was a lot yesterday, and the Ukrainians covered this distance in a day...

 

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UKR blogger linked to UKR Air Force

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As of now, there is a decrease in the activity of KABs [Guided bombs] near Kursk, they work mainly with unguided rockets. These missiles have questionable accuracy, so they are thrown not by quality, but by quantity It is also interesting that there was a hefty number of mines in the area where it all started Where they all went is unknown I wonder if the same situation could be near Bryansk?

His most recent post

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Launch the KAB towards Sudzha

Looks like RU VKS is bombing Sudzha

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RU claim

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Yesterday, the enemy was unable to rush into the city, but during the night he concentrated reserves and began to move north and south of the settlement, trying to finally cut it off from road traffic and is already operating in Sudzha itself.

Looks like UKR are indeed bypassing Sudzha

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5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Ukraine taking Kursk NPP and then saying "we'll return Kursk NPP if you f- off from Zaporozhia NPP" would be hilarious.

I was more thinking about "Return Melitopol or we turn the whole thing into a new Chernobyl". Ukraine has enough nuclear engineers to figure it out. And try to plug an open reactor with the current situation and ongoing conflict. It took the USSR half a million men to clean that up during peacetime.

Imagine RU evacuating Kursk, which is one of the few "GDP positive" regions for the Moscowites. 

Basically nuclear deterrence against an invasion without actually having nukes - steal your enemy's nukes and demand status quo ante bellum.

 

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RU claim

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There is a fight going on in Sudzha. In fact, the resistance in the city is provided by border guards, disparate units of the Ministry of Defense and the police. So far, [we have] contact only with border guards. Apparently, we are waiting for difficult decisions and statements [about retreat].

Later

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Once again, Sudzha is not currently occupied by the enemy. There is a battle going on directly within the settlement. The garrison is defending.

 

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1 minute ago, Grigb said:

It's strange to think the Russians are genuinely concerned that Ukraine can advance 60km at this stage of the war! I'm not sure Ukraine has committed enough troops to hold that kind of territory, let alone seize it, but would love to be wrong.

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2 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I was more thinking about "Return Melitopol or we turn the whole thing into a new Chernobyl". Ukraine has enough nuclear engineers to figure it out. And try to plug an open reactor with the current situation and ongoing conflict. It took the USSR half a million men to clean that up during peacetime.

Imagine RU evacuating Kursk, which is one of the few "GDP positive" regions for the Moscowites. 

Basically nuclear deterrence against an invasion without actually having nukes - steal your enemy's nukes and demand status quo ante bellum.

 

I don't think Ukraines allies would approve of nuclear threats, but just sitting on that powerplant would be enough. It is a huge strategic asset and within artillery distance of the Kursk suburbs - it is dangerous for the regime itself if it cannot prevent huge losses like that.

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Looks like RU info command finally got directives from the top - information is drying up.

[EDIT] yes, looks like that's it for now. Everybody is ordered to shut up and believe official version 

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  • The advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deep into Russia in the Kursk direction has been stopped.
  • The losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the operation on the border of the Kursk region amounted to 315 people, of whom at least 100 were killed, the rest were wounded.
  • Since the beginning of the operation, Russian troops have destroyed 54 pieces of enemy equipment, including seven tanks.
  • The operation will be completed by defeating the enemy and reaching the state border of the Russian Federation.
  • The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the border near the Kursk region with a force of 1,000 troops in order to seize territory.

 

Edited by Grigb
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8 minutes ago, hcrof said:

I don't think Ukraines allies would approve of nuclear threats, but just sitting on that powerplant would be enough. It is a huge strategic asset and within artillery distance of the Kursk suburbs - it is dangerous for the regime itself if it cannot prevent huge losses like that.

Seriously...is this thread getting progressively dimmer?  School is out so the teenagers are more active? Seizing a nuclear power plant and threatening to light it off Chernobyl style was a line that even the RA would not cross down at Zaporizhzhia. First off it is illegal as hell and last I checked Ukraine's main strategy was to try and be pulled into the West, not become a nuclear terror pariah state.  Second, anyone honestly think that an invasion of Russian home soil and capture of a strategic nuclear sight would not trigger a Russia nuclear response before it could even happen?

Any amateur strategist who thinks this is a good idea needs to put the keyboard away for awhile.

As to this latest UA offensive...good to see, but unless the RA is prime for a collapse it will have a hard time of making any real hay for the same reasons the RA couldn't make a go of it: increasingly long exposed lines of support with no air superiority.

Raid to make a point and get a reaction from Russia = good idea.  Sending troops to take and hold Russia soil just to die later = bad idea.  Make the point and pull back, rinse and repeat.  That could drive the RA to distraction and erode them over time.

 

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3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Second, anyone honestly think that an invasion of Russian home soil and capture of a strategic nuclear sight would not trigger a Russia nuclear response before it could even happen?

I do. All RU nuclear threats is lie for gullible westerners.

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13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously...is this thread getting progressively dimmer?  School is out so the teenagers are more active? Seizing a nuclear power plant and threatening to light it off Chernobyl style was a line that even the RA would not cross down at Zaporizhzhia. First off it is illegal as hell and last I checked Ukraine's main strategy was to try and be pulled into the West, not become a nuclear terror pariah state.  Second, anyone honestly think that an invasion of Russian home soil and capture of a strategic nuclear sight would not trigger a Russia nuclear response before it could even happen?

Any amateur strategist who thinks this is a good idea needs to put the keyboard away for awhile.

As to this latest UA offensive...good to see, but unless the RA is prime for a collapse it will have a hard time of making any real hay for the same reasons the RA couldn't make a go of it: increasingly long exposed lines of support with no air superiority.

Raid to make a point and get a reaction from Russia = good idea.  Sending troops to take and hold Russia soil just to die later = bad idea.  Make the point and pull back, rinse and repeat.  That could drive the RA to distraction and erode them over time.

 

Just to be clear, I was obviously talking in jest. The idea of using the Kursk NPP that way is as unlikely as Selensky personally riding into Mosocow on a cossack pony to challenge Putin to a sabre duel.

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