How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[MikeyD]

Interestingly, no press reports that I've seen have claimed sabotage at the Platan research building. Just that there was a fire that spread, that stored gas cylinders were involved somehow, and a criminal investigation begun.

[zinz]

Analysis of Drone strikes on Russian tanks

https://tochnyi.info/2024/06/piercing-russian-heavy-armor/

Edit: Someone can do a summary. Won't do that on my phone

Edited Tuesday at 10:25 AM by zinz

[Maciej Zwolinski]

15 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I know people training UA in Poland and they are seeing this exact pressure. Overinvestment can be just as harmful as underinvestment.  The harsh calculus of this war is that offensive mass as we knew it is dead, but that does not mean we still do not see mass dying.  It takes 10-15 years to train a professional Snr NCO and field grade officer to a point where mission command and western style works...and in this war it takes a second to kill them at speeds that neither we nor the Ukrainians can sustain at that standard.

Indeed, the current Western standard since 1990's seems (except in Scandinavia) to have been converted fully to the US model  based on a fully professional military with an unspoken assumption that it will serve mostly as an expeditionary force. Investment even in private and NCO training is indeed intended to depreciate over many years of service and several overseas deployments in police actions and asymmetric wars. During high intensity, high casualty warfare this model would fare about as well as 1940's UK army, which it strongly resembles.

[zinz]

Quote

    ● Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) drones are the most widely used drones and the most affected by jamming. Ukraine adjusts by monitoring the frequencies that are being jammed and then changes their software and antenna to utilize different frequencies. Technicians are also working to make drones more resistant to jamming and still remain inexpensive. A year ago, Ukraine was losing 10,000 drones a month to jamming. I haven’t seen current numbers of jamming losses but it’s a lot less than 10,000 a month. It was reported that Ukraine also fielded a drone that is using AI terminal guidance which does not rely on operator commands, rendering jamming ineffective.

 

    ● Ukraine was given around 7000 Excalibur 155 mm shells. They were effective 70% of the time. Once the shell was jammed and cut off from the GPS it had to rely on its inertial guidance and the success rate dropped to 6%. Due to the small supply of shells and the accuracy issues, Ukraine largely stopped using the $68,000 shell.

 

    ● The GMLRS rockets fired by HIMARS and MLRS have been affected by jamming but Ukraine adjusted. EW resistant reconnaissance drones that seek targets can determine the EW environment. If the GPS frequencies aren’t being effectively jammed then GMLRS can be fired there. If it is being jammed, then Ukraine will sometimes run Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) missions in which Ukrainian aircraft will fire HARMs missiles that home on the jammer. HARMs has a 150 km range but these are still dangerous missions for Ukrainian aircraft. Once the jammer is destroyed, or once the radar is turned off and moved (suppressed), the GMLRS can be fired. Another alternative is to fire multiple rockets at the target, increasing the odds that the internal guidance system will be accurate on one of the missiles. In any case, there has been a steady stream of videos showing effective GMLRS strikes, indicating it is still very effective in an EW environment.

 

    ● JDAM-ER bombs also use GPS and are not immune to jamming but they are on target 60% of the time. There are plenty of videos in which four bombs hit the same building. Reconnaissance drones and SEAD missions can also play a supporting role in JDAM missions. JDAM’s are equipped with anti-spoofing devices so it can only be jammed, not be fed false data. On top of that, the US ordered Home-On-Jam seekers for JDAM. This means that the same jammers that are targeting JDAM bombs will then be targeted by the bombs. The JDAM-ER (Extended Range) has a 45 km range and the Russian Zhitel has a jamming range of about 30 km. It is possible that the JDAM could be aimed at a target, then a jammer could interfere with the GPS signal and the algorithm could steer the bomb to the source of the jamming if it is within range. The order for these seekers will be completed by October 1, 2025.

 

    ● Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB) are fired from HIMARS/MLRS and they haven’t worked. One reason is because the booster rocket has separation issues. The other reason is jamming. They have solutions for both issues but it will take months to implement and test.

 

    ● Small Diameter Bombs that are dropped by aircraft are 90% effective. Since the EW environment is always changing, it’s possible that it can change in the future.

Via https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-24-june-2024-part-5

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

19 hours ago, dan/california said:

What all Ukrainian civilians did know is that external support was all but cut off for six months while the U.S.Congress ate its own tail. That contributed to a downturn in Ukrainian morale that it is going to take more than six weeks to fix.

They are also hearing, that in the Autumn Trump will become the US president and will cut off all support from the US. Leaving the UKR to get their supplies from the EU, which has been insufficient (but full of hot air, that is where the EU is world class)

[zinz]

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-24-june-2024-part-6-the

Analysis of the S400 system and how many are left 

[cesmonkey]

Rybar on the use of USVs for mine laying:

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, zinz said:

Via https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-24-june-2024-part-5

 

Good stuff.  I've always thought the EW doom and gloom was overstated, but obviously it is very effective at taking the certainty out of otherwise precision weapons.  And that is a big problem.

This one I found particularly interesting:

Quote

The JDAM-ER (Extended Range) has a 45 km range and the Russian Zhitel has a jamming range of about 30 km. It is possible that the JDAM could be aimed at a target, then a jammer could interfere with the GPS signal and the algorithm could steer the bomb to the source of the jamming if it is within range. The order for these seekers will be completed by October 1, 2025.

This is the first time I've heard of a weapon that is not explicitly designed to be fired at an emission source that can switch roles after release.  It's not hard to imagine this will have a big impact on keeping the Russian side quieter.

Steve

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good stuff.  I've always thought the EW doom and gloom was overstated, but obviously it is very effective at taking the certainty out of otherwise precision weapons.  And that is a big problem.

This one I found particularly interesting:

This is the first time I've heard of a weapon that is not explicitly designed to be fired at an emission source that can switch roles after release.  It's not hard to imagine this will have a big impact on keeping the Russian side quieter.

Steve

What I find baffling is that we have been taking NAVWar for years. What did we think a peer adversary was going to do?  Politely sit still while we rained GPS munitions at them? Obviously terminal guidance will be the next big thing for both UAS and PGM.

[Battlefront.com]

26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What I find baffling is that we have been taking NAVWar for years. What did we think a peer adversary was going to do?  Politely sit still while we rained GPS munitions at them? Obviously terminal guidance will be the next big thing for both UAS and PGM.

The same thought came to my mind.  I think the phrase "no excuse" can be used quite easily here.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

A good OpEd piece calling out Putin's trip to North Korean for what it is... a sign of desperation.  There's points made that haven't been explicitly pointed out here, though the gist of it has been:

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4736909-putin-kissing-kims-ring-is-a-massive-strategic-blunder/

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

Very interesting to see a volunteers perspective on how things have changed since 2022 to 2024. His comments about vehicles are very interesting and really do highlight how poorly suited old gen vehicles are in an environment filled with drones. Certainly explains why vehicles never usually stick around on the front. 

I also find the comment about better Russian soldiers on the front curious as well. I view it as the Russians running low on the storm Z units and actually having to use their 'proper' troops to man the front now, at least more overall. 

Edited Tuesday at 03:16 PM by ArmouredTopHat

[Seedorf81]

ICC issues arrest warrants for Shoigu and Gerasimov for crimes commited from at least 10th of october 2022 until 9th of march 2023 in/against Ukraine.

https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-sergei-kuzhugetovich-shoigu-and

 

(ICC means International Criminal Court, btw.)

Edited Tuesday at 03:17 PM by Seedorf81
addition

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

A good OpEd piece calling out Putin's trip to North Korean for what it is... a sign of desperation.  There's points made that haven't been explicitly pointed out here, though the gist of it has been:

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4736909-putin-kissing-kims-ring-is-a-massive-strategic-blunder/

Steve

As I have said before, NK is the international relations equivalent to the creepy kid who likes to burn bugs while touching himself. The one everyone tries not to see.  If Russia is cozying up that weirdo nation, they are definitely in a bind.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Very interesting to see a volunteers perspective on how things have changed since 2022 to 2024. His comments about vehicles are very interesting and really do highlight how poorly suited old gen vehicles are in an environment filled with drones. Certainly explains why vehicles never usually stick around on the front. 

Damn, I think we have @ArmouredTopHat half convinced that tanks really are dead.

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What I find baffling is that we have been taking NAVWar for years. What did we think a peer adversary was going to do?  Politely sit still while we rained GPS munitions at them? Obviously terminal guidance will be the next big thing for both UAS and PGM.

 

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The same thought came to my mind.  I think the phrase "no excuse" can be used quite easily here.

Steve

I suspect there was a bad combination of wishful thinking, and budget pressure. For the last twenty plus years the U.S. has seen extraordinarily high success rates with GPS munition when used against the insurgent type forces we have actually been fighting. Add in the ever shrinking size of the military. But the pentagon stills needs to sign of that it can cover its vast array of commitments. Well, if you assume the same 90% hit rates as seen in the dirt wars, the math adds up, sort of.  It takes a general officer with an an unusual disregard for his own career to question these sort of assumptions when large scale planning and force structure has been based on them.

The Russians and Chinese of course are rather motivated disrupt this happy state of affairs. The only good news is that Ukraine has laid this bare in a way that we can fix it before we outright lose a war because of it. Can doesn't mean we will.   We also need to remember how many Ukrainians paid with their lives for these lessons.

It is a little it like Microsoft screwing up the smart phone business because it would have involved admitting how bad it would be for their existing business.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://tochnyi.info/2024/06/piercing-russian-heavy-armor/

Conclusions

The utilization of FPV drones in the Ukrainian war, specifically against Russian tanks, highlights the dynamic evolution of modern warfare. This analysis, drawing from the available data, underscores several key insights into the impact of these drones on the battlefield.

The data indicates a substantial and growing reliance on FPV drones by Ukrainian forces to target Russian tanks and armored vehicles. From September 2023 to March 2024, there has been a significant increase in FPV drone strikes, with the highest activity recorded in March 2024. The consistent damage inflicted on T-72 and T-80 tanks, the most affected models, demonstrates the

 

effectiveness of FPV drones in compromising these key components of Russia’s armored forces.

The financial impact of FPV drone strikes on Russian tanks is substantial, amounting to an estimated $1.52 billion over the analyzed period. FPV drones have shown a high degree of agility and precision, targeting the vulnerabilities of tanks, particularly in the rear and turret/rear hull areas for T72 tanks. This strategic targeting approach has proven effective in causing significant damage, often leading to catastrophic internal explosions. The footage analysis reveals that FPV drones are used on both stationary and moving targets, highlighting their versatility in various combat scenarios.

In response to the growing drone threat, the Russian military has introduced the “Turtle Tank”. While these adaptations provide enhanced protection against FPV drones, they have significant drawbacks, including reduced mobility, limited turret functionality, and decreased visibility. The Turtle Tank represents a temporary measure in the ongoing adaptation to drone warfare, illustrating the continuous chase between both parts, but also a sign of desperation exacerbated by the situation on the ground that the Russian mechanised troops are facing. In the evolving nature of the war in Ukraine, both sides continue to innovate and adapt their tactics and technologies. Introducing more advanced warheads and guidance systems on FPV drones will further challenge the efficacy of Russian armored vehicles on the battlefield. 

 

Short version, FPVs can kill tanks. Verifiable engagements have risen from ~75 per month a year ago to ~200 now. Resulting ~50% damaged, ~15 percent abandoned, and the remainder destroyed, often catastrophically.

Turtle tank adaptations are moderately effective but can be overcome by some combination of multiple hits and attacking the tracks. Turtle tanks suck at everything else.

Article doesn't discuss anything but tanks.

[The_Capt]

53 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Short version, FPVs can kill tanks. Verifiable engagements have risen from ~75 per month a year ago to ~200 now. Resulting ~50% damaged, ~15 percent abandoned, and the remainder destroyed, often catastrophically.

Turtle tank adaptations are moderately effective but can be overcome by some combination of multiple hits and attacking the tracks. Turtle tanks suck at everything else.

Article doesn't discuss anything but tanks.

200 a month?!  That is over 6 Bns...a month.  Looking like around a 35% Pk rate, better if one factors abandoned.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

200 a month?!  That is over 6 Bns...a month.  Looking like around a 35% Pk rate, better if one factors abandoned.

And that still with mostly improvised/civilian drones, and old RPG warheads. Military grade drones and tandem warheads haven't really shown up yet. They most certainly will, though.

[Bearstronaut]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As I have said before, NK is the international relations equivalent to the creepy kid who likes to burn bugs while touching himself. The one everyone tries not to see.  If Russia is cozying up that weirdo nation, they are definitely in a bind.

Oh man you have no idea. I had to read a lot of North Korean stuff when I was at DLI learning Korean. Some of the stuff we read was on the Juche philosophy espoused by Kim Il Sung. The English translations don't do it justice to how bats**t crazy it is. It's a weird mish-mash of Marxism-Leninism, old timey Korean feudalism, and Nazi-like race science. Even the PRC is like "dude, we don't really want anything to do with you but we'll prop you up because it pisses off the Americans and we don't want a failed state on our borders."

Edited Tuesday at 05:27 PM by Bearstronaut

[ArmouredTopHat]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Damn, I think we have @ArmouredTopHat half convinced that tanks really are dead.

I do try to be pragmatic about these things. I am happy to concede that tanks originally built in the cold war period are no longer entirely fit for purpose as we see, at least in this sort of environment. In the same way a tank from 1939 was no longer fit for the battlefield in 1945. I do not think tanks as a concept are dead, but its clear major design changes are required. 

There needs to be a long hard think about vehicle protection and countermeasures overall for future design to any vehicle operating within the battlespace where FPV drones are prevalent. 
 

I expect to see a major shift towards these things being on the battlefield in far greater numbers. 

Edited Tuesday at 05:29 PM by ArmouredTopHat

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

within the battlespace where FPV drones are prevalent

That will be all of them, going forward. They are being used by Mexican cartels, and Burmese rebels. This genii is out.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Curious how they are not even bothering with applying ERA to the hull front but instead covering spots  more likely to be hit by FPVs and the like

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

News: The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to help the country’s military maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems, per 4 US officials. w/@OrenCNN

Quote

Once approved, the change would likely be enacted this year, officials said, and would allow the Pentagon to provide contracts to American companies for work inside Ukraine for the first time since Russia invaded in 2022. Officials said they hope it will speed up the maintenance and repairs of weapons systems being used by the Ukrainian military.

As a result, US-provided military equipment that has sustained significant damage in combat has had to be transported out of the country to Poland, Romania, or other NATO countries for repairs, a process which takes time.  US troops are also available to help the Ukrainians with more routine maintenance and logistics, but only from afar via video chat or secure phone—an arrangement that has come with inherent limitations, since US troops and contractors are not able to work directly on the systems.

 

[dan/california]

18 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Only two years to late...