The_Capt Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 32 minutes ago, chris talpas said: Tanks? j/k Meow. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 17 minutes ago, kimbosbread said: Having a correct, or at least good enough model of how the world works is critical. I imagine actuaries, logistics people, operations research mathematicians and code monkeys like me who bang our keyboards and design and build distributed, eventually consistent software systems at scale have a good foundation for this kind of situation where what we observe are secondary and tertiary effects, and we then have to hypothesize what the first order thing is. As an aside, civil engineering models traffic as a series of springs and masses and dampers in introductory traffic engineering… this is probably very applicable to military actions as well in the most basic sense. All of this. For me, my professional life has been almost exclusively dedicated to simulations design and implementation. It just so happens it is warfare simulation, but in terms of thought process a sim is a sim is a sim. You must be able to envision a wide array of variables and have some sense of how one going in this way or that way affects the others. Then you need to be able to assess if the outcome of those shifting variables aligns with reality. Success is having the outcomes conform to objective reality of whatever is being simulated, which means a sim designer's measure of success is inherently tangible. The inability to put a very small piece of information into wider context is a pretty common flaw in Human thinking. Humans love short cuts and simple solutions to arrive at what they want. Proper analysis doesn't play well with this mentality. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 9 minutes ago, zinz said: https://materie.at/gb/der-grosse-agentenaustausch-in-mitteleuropa/ Russia had to completely reorganize their spying setup in Europe. The only remaining bases remain in Austria, Hungary and Switzerland. What, no more Prague cafe meetings? It is some interesting analysis of tangible data. Russia has increased its staff turnover disproportionally in those three countries compared to the norm and other countries. At the same time, those countries have shown less interest of kicking out Russian diplomats suspected of spying (0 in the case of Hungary). Not mentioned explicitly (that I saw) is that the EU makes it easier for spies to move around between countries, making it less necessary to have significant spy presence in each and every country. Unfortunately, this underscores decades of knowledge that Vienna is a favored base of operations for Moscow's agents and that the Austrian government isn't doing enough to change that. Hungary and Switzerland are also no surprises. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Karakurt-class can carry 4 Kalibr cruise missiles. Quote An image has emerged reportedly showing a Ukrainian MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile slamming into the Russian Karakurt-class corvette Tsiklon in Sevastopol, Russian-occupied Crimea, May 19th. Quote The Tsiklon was likely sunk in the attack BSF: SEVASTOPOL 0.5m 23 May 2024 + commentary on from 19 & 20 May which can't be shared publicly Clues point to a vessel being sunk off the frigate pier -Mast protruding from the water -Silhouette of a sunk vessel -Various vessels Dive | Sub Rescue | Rescue vessel 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viko Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 3 hours ago, Haiduk said: Man, 35th marines brigade still on left bank. Except Magyar we have units who can conduct drone recin and attacks. Our forces abandoned completely destroyed part of Krynky, which they were holding recently and moved toward Kozachi Laheri and established new positions there. I notice that Krynky has about 10 km in length. Also General Staff in own report for 28th of May made a hint we have new bridgeheads on left bank or on islands close to left bank. It was said "in area of Olhivka and Novotiahynka". But these are Ukraine-controlled villages on right bank, so new allegedle bridgeheads can be establishged in area of oppose villages through the Dnipro - Kozachi Laheri and Korsunka. About avanture and casualties. There are many opinions about sense of this operation. Many plaints about this operation had to be better supportes with artillery, SAM and EW protection. Many claims to former Marine Corps commander general Sodol (in 2014 he was 25th airborne brigade comamnder), who is blamed in "Zhukov methods" and complete indifference to lives of personnel. But even despite this bridgehead allowed to tie enough of Russian forces (at least new division, two naval infantry brigades/regiments and batch of territorial troop units), which could be moved to Zaporizhzia direction. Also as you could see, above, Russian losses are mauch more then Ukrainian. Real sense of this operation we will understand only after the war The number of Russian losses is not particularly important. As we see, they very quickly make up for their losses, unlike Ukraine. It will be especially difficult for well-trained Marines to make up for losses. As for the presence of the Ukrainian military on the left bank of the Dnieper, do you have any evidence other than the arrogant statements of the Ukrainians themselves? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viko Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 1 hour ago, Kraft said: And how is that going for them now that its not just sparse TDF lacking both drones and artillery in unfortified positions opposing the numericly superior force? Any recent advances since the first surprise on grey zone? No? Dozens of drone videos of dying russians in some, for a change, not cratered field? Check. The terrain even favors infantry a lot more than the east, yet it bogged down in a week and hasnt moved in 10 days. dozens of videos of kamikaze drones accompanied by upbeat music, of course, which could be more convincing evidence of Ukrainian successes. But seriously, Ukraine has been preparing for this attack for several months. Everyone knew in advance where it would be held, and nevertheless, as a result of 28 criminal cases filed against 28 Ukrainian officers for breaking through the Russians near Kharkov. Are you sure this is what a successful defensive operation should look like? https://apostrophe.ua/news/society/2024-05-25/proryiv-rossiyan-v-harkovskoy-oblasti-protiv-28-komandirov-vsu-otkryili-delo/322305 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viko Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 4 hours ago, TheVulture said: And not to sound too cynical, you sound a lot like Zeleban/Zekezilka, and your first post was 6 days ago. Not a sock puppet by any chance? Oh yeah, let's all get paranoid together. We are attacked by Zeleban from the other side of the ban 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 10 minutes ago, Viko said: dozens of videos of kamikaze drones accompanied by upbeat music, of course, which could be more convincing evidence of Ukrainian successes. But seriously, Ukraine has been preparing for this attack for several months. Everyone knew in advance where it would be held, and nevertheless, as a result of 28 criminal cases filed against 28 Ukrainian officers for breaking through the Russians near Kharkov. Are you sure this is what a successful defensive operation should look like? https://apostrophe.ua/news/society/2024-05-25/proryiv-rossiyan-v-harkovskoy-oblasti-protiv-28-komandirov-vsu-otkryili-delo/322305 So instead of all this secondary stuff you post, how about you address the elephant in the room? RU has advanced a very short distance in two areas over a period of 3 weeks and sustained enormous losses in the process. How is that a success? And the amount of RU offensive actions on the other fronts has reduced from before the Kharkiv offensive. So how is this in any way a success for RU? WTF point are you even trying to make? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viko Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 46 minutes ago, danfrodo said: So instead of all this secondary stuff you post, how about you address the elephant in the room? RU has advanced a very short distance in two areas over a period of 3 weeks and sustained enormous losses in the process. How is that a success? And the amount of RU offensive actions on the other fronts has reduced from before the Kharkiv offensive. So how is this in any way a success for RU? WTF point are you even trying to make? in any case, this is a greater distance than the Ukrainians traveled last summer in two months 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danfrodo Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 4 minutes ago, Viko said: in any case, this is a greater distance than the Ukrainians traveled last summer in two months Except that you are acting like this is some disaster for UKR. They are holding, Ukraine is surviving. This is a false comparison. We all know & agree that UKR has not shown the ability to break through. RU has not shown that ability either. RU has taken relatively small amounts of rubble-ized terrain at insane cost, and none of that changes the strategic or operational stalemate. So again, WTF is your actual point? Is UKR 'losing' the war? is RU 'winning' the war? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Viko is clearly Version 3 or 4 of the Standard Russian Troll who keeps putting in an appearance here now . Why people even bother to converse this propaganda account I don't understand . Block it . 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 https://mstdn.social/@noelreports/112543036586695607 Quote Several Russian channels are reporting that the Ukrainian forces have launched counterattacks in the Kharkiv direction. Besides that, they state that their own offensive has come to a standstill. https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112543012060483908 HIMARS being used inside russia apparently 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 2 hours ago, kimbosbread said: Having a correct, or at least good enough model of how the world works is critical. I imagine actuaries, logistics people, operations research mathematicians and code monkeys like me who bang our keyboards and design and build distributed, eventually consistent software systems at scale have a good foundation for this kind of situation where what we observe are secondary and tertiary effects, and we then have to hypothesize what the first order thing is. As an aside, civil engineering models traffic as a series of springs and masses and dampers in introductory traffic engineering… this is probably very applicable to military actions as well in the most basic sense. I can tell you that being au fait with traffic studies engenders the necessary level of humility and respect for complex systems and processes (check out the concept of “induced demand”) in which one should approach a military conflict. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viko Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 18 minutes ago, danfrodo said: Except that you are acting like this is some disaster for UKR. They are holding, Ukraine is surviving. This is a false comparison. We all know & agree that UKR has not shown the ability to break through. RU has not shown that ability either. RU has taken relatively small amounts of rubble-ized terrain at insane cost, and none of that changes the strategic or operational stalemate. So again, WTF is your actual point? Is UKR 'losing' the war? is RU 'winning' the war? Of course this was a disaster for Ukraine. thousands of Ukrainians from the Kharkov region lost their homes. Ukrainian enterprises in the Kharkov region were destroyed. I’m not even talking about the number of killed and wounded Ukrainians. All this is a real disaster for Ukraine 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 25 minutes ago, keas66 said: Viko is clearly Version 3 or 4 of the Standard Russian Troll who keeps putting in an appearance here now . Why people even bother to converse this propaganda account I don't understand . Block it . Story goes, they get paid for post they make and for every person that responds to them. Which is why they write the most provocative **** to enrage / engage people. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viko Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said: Story goes, they get paid for post they make and for every person that responds to them. Which is why they write the most provocative **** to enrage / engage people. what nonsense. I'm just posting my own opinion here 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 (edited) ....Which so far have been 100% pure drive-by opinion, untainted by any documentation. At least meme or something. Edited June 1 by LongLeftFlank 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 21 hours ago, MikeyD said: Here's some E3 'concept vehicle' shots. Very Armata-like sheetmetal cladding. It looks like 30mm autocannon was moved to the coax position/ (see? it's so easy! It's even relevant to the post) 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: ....Which so far have been 100% pure drive-by opinion, untainted by any documentation. At least meme or something. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 1 hour ago, Viko said: in any case, this is a greater distance than the Ukrainians traveled last summer in two months Russia attacked Ukraine and after the debactaculer showing it has made so far must win decisively and outright at this point to come somewhere within shouting distance of the strategic goals Putin was set on achieving. Ukraine must simply survive as an independent state to achieve its own. How exactly has the Kharkiv offensive furthered Russia's strategic goals? How has giving up some low single digit percentage of turf in exchange for ruinous losses to the attacker significantly endangered Ukraine's? We both know the answers which is why it's obvious you are simply trolling. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 https://mastodon.social/@noelreports@mstdn.social/112543109834817359 Next Evolution of cages around vehicles. This time for motorbikes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinz Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 45 minutes ago, Viko said: Of course this was a disaster for Ukraine. thousands of Ukrainians from the Kharkov region lost their homes. Ukrainian enterprises in the Kharkov region were destroyed. I’m not even talking about the number of killed and wounded Ukrainians. All this is a real disaster for Ukraine And strategically in my eyes not the smartest move as it turns out now for Russia. Russia chose escalation by opening a new active front with attacking over the international border. Countries like the US and Germany were forced to change their policies as reaction to Russias escalation. Those are the two countries with most military aid to Ukraine. We have tons of countries announcing that it's fine to strike military targets inside of a nuclear power. That's quite a change to when the war started and Germany was at most giving helmets to not anger the Russian bear. So bringing the war with strikes to Russia proper is strategically much more important than a few more villages and a small town raced to the ground. I am sure it's horrific for those living there. But if Russia wouldn't have used those troops in Kharkiv they would be used somewhere else and there homes would have been destroyed. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 (edited) 1 hour ago, Viko said: Of course this was a disaster for Ukraine. thousands of Ukrainians from the Kharkov region lost their homes. Ukrainian enterprises in the Kharkov region were destroyed. I’m not even talking about the number of killed and wounded Ukrainians. All this is a real disaster for Ukraine Your continued use of Kharkov instead of Kharkiv belies your intentions here. Everyone I have talked to in Ukraine, including Russian speakers since the invasion never refer to the Russian spellings for city names because the Russian propaganda pushes it so hard (To convey the notion that they 'belong' to Russia or otherwise legitimise their claim. They will -never- refer to these cities according to their Ukrainian names) The fact you insist to use such nomenclature is a dead give away to me that you are not being genuine with us here, not to mention your lack of actual evidence supplied. Edited June 1 by ArmouredTopHat 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmouredTopHat Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 (edited) Were getting some very interesting reports from today. Remember when I mentioned the Russians were complaining? Whenever their mil bloggers get this upset, its usually because of pretty colossal mistakes. (Even for the Russians) Yet this is seemingly a disaster for Ukraine? (according to Viko) *Edit* Now also reports of significant counter attacks Edited June 1 by ArmouredTopHat 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 (edited) 14 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said: Were getting some very interesting reports from today. Remember when I said the Russians were complaining? Whenever their mil bloggers get this upset, its usually because of pretty colossal mistakes. (Even for the Russians) Yet this is seemingly a disaster for Ukraine? (according to Viko) *Edit* Now also reports of significant counter attacks Getting the distinct impression that in true Russian fashion, nobody bothered to prepare staging areas across the border to effectively minimize the damage should the rules of engagement imposed by the US and other nations change. Plus ca change plus c'est la meme chose. Edited June 1 by billbindc 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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