How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I expect that a large number of units will be withdrawn for rest and refit ahead of the winter campaign season.  Not all of them from the Kherson groping either.  Some stiffening of defenses in the Donetsk sector is probable, though it could come in the form of artillery.  Ukraine is getting more HIMARS ammo so Wagner might see some special attention.

What comes next is a very, very good question.  Clearing out the rest of Luhansk lost in this war is likely to continue, though I don't think it will be the major effort.  Pushing a bit further east and then cutting south into Donetsk from behind the Siverskyi Donets would be extremely problematic for the Russians for a number of reasons.  In particular it could get DLPR to start thinking for themselves, especially if Russia isn't willing or able to commit meaningful forces.

However, the obvious one is punching through somewhere between the Dnepr and Donetsk City.  A push southward along the Dnepr would be the easiest and have a quicker payoff than anywhere else.  Well, excepting some sort of amphibious operation to cross opposite Kherson   I don't think that's likely, but Ukraine does like to surprise us.

Steve

The line of the Dnieper creates some interesting opportunities as it's obvious that the Russian military is not going to recross. A drive down the east side of the river assisted by artillery and the occasional flanking operation from the west seems like a fruitful set of opportunities.

 

[Grossman]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The line of the Dnieper creates some interesting opportunities as it's obvious that the Russian military is not going to recross. A drive down the east side of the river assisted by artillery and the occasional flanking operation from the west seems like a fruitful set of opportunities.

 

The obvious drive is south from Zaporizhzhia to east of Melitopol, cutting the Russian invasion force in 2, with the Kerch bridge out of action, and once secure the coast, moving on to Crimea..  It would need to be a wide operation in breath to deter breakouts. That is the obvious ploy, so may not happen. UKR has the initiative. Without new weapons one can expect more of the same: attrition, opportunity, targeting supply lines, and conservation of manpower. 

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  I don't think it's right for people to jump down the throats of people who have had Ukraine's back the whole time just because they say something about negotiations.

All war is negotiation - between warring parties, between internal social structures and identities (e.g. macro-micro) and between stakeholder/shareholders.  And finally with reality of a massive collision itself.  

This is a very good point and I would take it further.  The US could be signalling a few negotiating positions here.  First they are signalling to people in power in the backfield, ones who may be getting soft on Putin, that there are possible end states that do not see the complete implosion of Russia as a nation state - a softer Russian landing strategy.  Russia will pay, and be very aware it is paying for this war in the end, but that is a sliding scale that if managed effectively could still keep the country together.  Second, it is signalling negotiation position of advantage for the western order - oh, you can bet we are going to get what we want out of this war and maybe western powers are figuring out what that is exactly.  Lastly it is signaling to Russia that the US is actively engaged in the negotiated end state.  Russia has to fear that the Ukraine has gone rabid at the end of the NATO leash (their perspective only) and everyone wants to avoid an accidental escalation.

So, yep, there will be negotiation.  The question is - who will it be with in Russia other than Putin?  No way does his regime survive this war unless we let it happen.  And there will be some that point to the west as the evil hand that orchestrated this whole thing to remove Putin, to which I call BS - this was a suicide-by-policy ending if there ever was one.

[Beleg85]

Ukrainian SOF reportedly crossing Dnieper, probably near Kinburn.

That is hell of interesting development. Kinburn Peninsula is administration-wise divided between Mykolaiv and Kherson Oblast, first of which was reclaimed as entirely liberated before. Strategically holding there has not much sense for Ukrainians and is in fact dangerous for troops, but crossings are now officially confirmed by UA High Command.

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

All war is negotiation - between warring parties, between internal social structures and identities (e.g. macro-micro) and between stakeholder/shareholders.  And finally with reality of a massive collision itself.  

This is a very good point and I would take it further.  The US could be signalling a few negotiating positions here.  First they are signalling to people in power in the backfield, ones who may be getting soft on Putin, that there are possible end states that do not see the complete implosion of Russia as a nation state - a softer Russian landing strategy.  Russia will pay, and be very aware it is paying for this war in the end, but that is a sliding scale that if managed effectively could still keep the country together.  Second, it is signalling negotiation position of advantage for the western order - oh, you can bet we are going to get what we want out of this war and maybe western powers are figuring out what that is exactly.  Lastly it is signaling to Russia that the US is actively engaged in the negotiated end state.  Russia has to fear that the Ukraine has gone rabid at the end of the NATO leash (their perspective only) and everyone wants to avoid an accidental escalation.

So, yep, there will be negotiation.  The question is - who will it be with in Russia other than Putin?  No way does his regime survive this war unless we let it happen.  And there will be some that point to the west as the evil hand that orchestrated this whole thing to remove Putin, to which I call BS - this was a suicide-by-policy ending if there ever was one.

Exactly this.

Some historians criticize the Allies' "unconditional surrender" position towards Germany and Japan in WW2 because they feel it had the effect of unifying their respective war efforts.  If their nations were going to be destroyed anyway, why bother rising up and getting strung up by piano wire?  Why not just hang back and let the Allies get rid of the tyrants?  Much safer that way.

Back to our Russia scenario, the opposition to Putin might be waiting for total destruction because it seems that's the only possible way this ends.  But if there was some sense that Ukraine might allow Russia's forces to withdraw and the rest of the world might establish a path to "normalization", well then... maybe getting rid of Putin before Russia slides into civil war might be something to give a try.

Of course, anything other than "unconditional surrender" in such circumstances (WW2 included) presents lots and lots and lots of complications for future deterrence and stability.  Allowing Russia to withdraw its forces without having to pay for their crimes shouldn't be considered.  Allowing Russia to return to a "business as usual" regional threat to its neighbors shouldn't be considered.  So, if there's no possibility of negotiating with Russia to ensure it is out of Ukraine completely, pays for its crimes, and agrees to a mechanism to reform their bad habits (including Putin COMPLETELY out of power, as in death, prison, or exile), then walk out of the negotiations and say that at least we tried.

Steve

[Yet]

20 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

IDK?

so thats what those riverine boats in last aid package was destined for?!

[Battlefront.com]

38 minutes ago, Grossman said:

The obvious drive is south from Zaporizhzhia to east of Melitopol, cutting the Russian invasion force in 2, with the Kerch bridge out of action, and once secure the coast, moving on to Crimea..  It would need to be a wide operation in breath to deter breakouts. That is the obvious ploy, so may not happen. UKR has the initiative. Without new weapons one can expect more of the same: attrition, opportunity, targeting supply lines, and conservation of manpower. 

We've had lots of detailed discussions about this sector of front and IMHO the only one that is practically possible is driving down the left bank of the Dnepr so that Ukraine's right flank is protected by the river and friendly positions on the other bank.  In Combat Mission terms, this is a "map edge hugging" strategy.  It is "gamey" in CM, but can be extremely effective.  In Ukraine, however, it's totally legitimate as they already control the map edge in question

Once the drive south has been effective, then reestablish bridging in Kherson and push down towards Crimea.  That cuts off Melitopol and the supplies going to it.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

The Ukrainian drone boat in public and plans for future. In case this hasn’t already been posted.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-shadowy-kamikaze-drone-boats-officially-break-cover

Edited November 12, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[danfrodo]

47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We've had lots of detailed discussions about this sector of front and IMHO the only one that is practically possible is driving down the left bank of the Dnepr so that Ukraine's right flank is protected by the river and friendly positions on the other bank.  In Combat Mission terms, this is a "map edge hugging" strategy.  It is "gamey" in CM, but can be extremely effective.  In Ukraine, however, it's totally legitimate as they already control the map edge in question

Once the drive south has been effective, then reestablish bridging in Kherson and push down towards Crimea.  That cuts off Melitopol and the supplies going to it.

Steve

UKR tends to look for opportunities to 'unhinge' RU and the western theater offers excellent possibilties for this.  As I've mentioned before, there a only two rail routes overall.  One via kerch, which splits to two lines at Perekop & to the west of Perekop.  The other is from the east via Tokmak.  So if UKR wants to get the territory south of kherson/north of crimea it will look to cut those rail lines.  That's what I am watching for.  Restrict supply and then strike.  Hopefully get some longer range rockets to hit those two Perekop-area rail lines.  

Going straight for Melitopol w Dnieper on the right is obvious best strategy, but it's probably best defended.  I think UKR will strike further east of there, initially, wherever they see weakness and opportunity.  Goal will be to cut supply lines to the west.  This will cause panic w RU forced to pull forces out of fixed defenses to push back the salient, where RU units can be more easily defeated. 

And there's a cold front coming......

Kinburn Peninsula: we don't know what this is.  Maybe just a feint to force RU into disproportionately waste forces.  RU troops hearing via rumint that UKR forces are on the left bank should be nice for lowering RU morale.

Edited November 12, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[danfrodo]

Today's summary.  Some good videos I hadn't yet seen w captured vehicles & supplies.  Bakhmut still hot.  Hopefully some of the Kherson-sector artillery can shift over here to start blasting the wagnerites.  Svatove front there's some indications UKR getting closer & closer to to the town.  Some dry weather & hard ground might be all that's needed here, I hope.

Anywhere UKR can make a breakthrough will cause RU to shift forces so here's to hoping something happens on this front that opens up things on other fronts.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/12/2135559/-Ukraine-update-Celebrations-continue-in-Kherson-as-elsewhere-the-war-goes-on

 

[Haiduk]

Russian rare equipment, destroyed/abandoned in Kherson oblast

BMP-2 with 675-SB3KDZ protection kit

  

Tor-M2 SAM

Counter-battery radar Zoopark-1M

Claimed as abandoned S-300 launchers, but no close photos to make shure this

Edited November 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

 

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Now that is very true and generally right direction of thoughts. I am still not convinced there was an agreement, but in case there were already well established (limited) channels for mundane necessities like exchange of prisoners, maintainance of pipes etc. But they could also deal at higher level, including unofficial diplomatic.

 I am still baffled for some reason about this visit of Jake Sullivan, it seemed unscheduled and there was visible reinvigoration on diplomatic front within countries supporting Ukraine something like 1-2 weeks ago. I connected this with Putin's sign of weakness after grain deal and topic of US elections, but it could also be about managing Kherson withdrawal. It is pure speculation, of course.

As to Putin's personal perception of Ukraine, it is still doubtfull he treats AFU as equals at any level; mind of old Emperor rarely change and he view them as "Pentagon shills" that are temporarly successful probably more than ever. However you are right he started to listen to his generals, and whole long, several-weeks old operation of leaving Kherson is one of the sign of that.

We will need to observe carefully how tunes of official Russian propaganda change in forecoming weeks. Mood among nationalists is (pleasantly)  grave, but as we discussed many times before they are not good indicator of Kremlin policies. Murder of Stremousov again visibly demonstrates where they can shove their genuine nationalistic zeal.

Russia gone is the number one, and Russia gone with lowest number Ukrainian casualties is number two. If talking to the Russians will help with this, by all means. And there are probably political benefits in the parts of the world that have tried to stay more or less neutral to at least appearing open to negotiate. Regarding Stremousov I still crack up considering the possibility it was actually a traffic accident, and absolutely no one believes it.

2 hours ago, Huba said:

 

This is interesting, and has obvious propaganda value. Unless the AFU got a solid enough hold to bring Himars over I am not sure of the military utility. Although it would limit the Russians ability to mess with grain shipping operations, which certainly isn't bad..

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's tricky stuff to do in a way that passes scrutiny.  If these guys were armed, that would be a clear violation of the Geneva Conventions and they would, therefore, be outside of its protections.  However, unarmed mobiks trying to avoid being captured... nah, I don't think popping them in the head and spitting on their still warm bodies would go over very well at all.  PR wise for sure, but probably not legally either.  Which is why if the roles were reversed we could be very sure Russia would do it as they obviously don't care about PR or the rule of law.

Steve

The Ukrainians want prisoners to exchange, one of their highest priorities. If they caught someone who was guilty of something truly terrible, my assumption is that they would be shot while resisting arrest or simply disappear. No need to mess up the public narrative. 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Strategically holding there has not much sense for Ukrainians and is in fact dangerous for troops, but crossings are now officially confirmed by UA High Command.

The spit is a place, from where Russians often shelled with Grads and heavier MLRS Ochakiv port 

[Haiduk]

Establishing of temporary bridge likely through Inhulets with MTU-55A (or MTU-72) bridgelayer

Edited November 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[JonS]

6 hours ago, womble said:

Am I correct in thinking that Ukraine would be entirely within their rights under the "Rules of War" (that they do seem to be trying to adhere to) to shoot these guys at dawn tomorrow? Soldiers who try and disguise themselves as civilians forfeit their rights, AIUI, and can be treated as saboteurs/spies...

No.

No one loses the rights. That's kind of the point - if you can just arbitrarily lose them, they arent rights.

Different classes (combatants vs shipwrecked vs wounded vs civilians, etc) have different protections, but there is no class that has no protections.

And that's aside from the self inflicted pr disaster it would be.

[Haiduk]

Russans still use Shilkas (second video). This one was captured in damaged condition

 

Edited November 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grossman]

12 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I believe a key aspect of western reluctance and restraint is offering Putin the chance to leave Ukraine with some semibalance of a military and some ability to craft a saving grace narrative than being forced out by Ukrainian tanks.

I believe that Kherson is where Ukraine has decided to do the same. If we recall, upon the beginning of the campaign to disable the bridges over the Dnipro, high ranking officials in the Ukrainian government voiced publicily that Russia should leave the right bank and save the lives of their troops and that the bombardments were designed to emphasize their inability to hold it and supply them.

Again, it is important for Russia to suffer military defeat, deaths, and retreat but equally important for Ukraine to conserve their equipment, personnel, and civilians and infrastructure for the rest of the war as much as possible. The emphasis on regaining their PoWs, ensuring the evacuation of civilians from the frontlines and their efforts to maintain infrastructure speak to that regard.

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the UKR did a deal. The objective is/was to secure Kherson at minimal cost.  After all, the UKR wants the Russians out of all of Ukraine.  UKR is running a smart war. The deal could be a foretaste of things to come

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, JonS said:

No.

No one loses the rights. That's kind of the point - if you can just arbitrarily lose them, they arent rights.

Different classes (combatants vs shipwrecked vs wounded vs civilians, etc) have different protections, but there is no class that has no protections.

And that's aside from the self inflicted pr disaster it would be.

Hollywood mythology, which has not done the profession of arms many favours in my opinion.  Espionage does not equal immediate death sentence, at least not in the west since the late 40s - in fact they would be smarter to try and turn any captures so they can penetrate sabotage networks.

They are normally assigned the label of “unlawful or unprivileged” combatant but that needs to be established by a process as well.  And then as unlawful combatants they do not fall under the Geneva Conventions Article 3 but do for Article 4, which entitles them to a fair criminal trial.  They should be prosecutable under Ukrainian law, especially is a war measures act is in place. However, cutting them deals and sending them home is more likely to get more saboteurs to surrender than summary executions.

If we shot everyone dressed in civies trying to kill us in Afghanistan there would have bloody executions on live stream nearly daily…which would have went over fantastically I am sure.  No, Ukraine will likely arrest and prosecute the really bad ones and use the rest for PoW exchanges.

For those interested wiki is not a bad place to start and I know the Geneva Conventions are online in multiple places as well:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unlawful_combatant

 

 

[Grossman]

3 minutes ago, Grossman said:

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the UKR did a deal. The objective is/was to secure Kherson at minimal cost.  After all, the UKR wants the Russians out of all of Ukraine.  UKR is running a smart war. The deal could be a foretaste of things to come

and the deal included not blowing the Nova Kakovka dam, just the bridge. And the deal would have been concluded led by the local military. All speculation of course.

[billbindc]

30 minutes ago, Grossman said:

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the UKR did a deal. The objective is/was to secure Kherson at minimal cost.  After all, the UKR wants the Russians out of all of Ukraine.  UKR is running a smart war. The deal could be a foretaste of things to come

This. 

As the Capt and others have pointed out, wars are communication. The message here is that Russia is losing, Russia is retreating and that Russia will negotiate an exit strategy from a position of weakness. 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Igor Savelyev, pilot, unit unknown, got lost on 11th of May. In this day Ka-52 was claimed shot down

Lt.colonel Ruslan Mukhametkhanov, unknown motor-rifle unit. Was killed on 12th of Aug

 

[Haiduk]

National Guard Special Forces detachment "Omega" again practiced on firing range with Stugna-P near Pavlika. Data of filming unknown

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

The spit is a place, from where Russians often shelled with Grads and heavier MLRS Ochakiv port 

But you think Ukraine is hoping to keep it? Looks rather vulnerable as a territory to hold on for longer time to be frank. Unless AFU want to turn it into No Man's Land like Snake Island.

And interesting case study by ChrisO:

 

[Haiduk]

Mavik of 63rd mech.bigade has dropped small bomb on AT-mines, but operator made a mistake with altitude - the drone was lost in huge fireball. 63rd brigade also participated in liberation of Kherson oblast

 

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But you think Ukraine is hoping to keep it?

"Pushing enemy off" was claimed. Let's see... As I know Russians set mobile concrete bunkers there, but Kinburn spit guarded mostly by Rosgvardiya.  

Edited November 12, 2022 by Haiduk