How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 Once we hit steady state we will be awash in artillery shells,

We have spent the last two years learning that can be a very good problem to have.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Not saying the effort was the waste it was the rapid ramping up.  Worked in government long enough to know a massive spending sinkhole when I see one.  The government needed rapid production of a bunch of stuff so industry had to rapidly increase production lines - that costs an obscene amount of money, which that funding would need to backstop because risks are so high.  Government contracts were not doubt flying.

It is not anyone fault, or at least no one still in the business today. We dialled all that back in the 90s, GWOT did not need it, and we ignored the signals from 2014.  But it means that for some production runs the cost per unit was very high which soaks up the limited funding.  Once we hit steady state we will be awash in artillery shells, let’s hope they do not show up too late.  Russia should be very worried because the clock it ticking against them and they likely know it, hence the push to make hay while the sun shines this year.

Yeah, I think the major mistakes were made decades ago.  Here in the US there was a lot of pushback against base closures and, in particular, naval yards.  The arguments always were "we don't need this and it costs too much to keep" vs. "we might not need it now, but we might need it later, and at that point you'll be sorry if it's not here".  Each round of closures started with the premise that more cutting was the right thing to do, so the don't cut crowd was always starting out on the defensive.  The cut crowd always got most of what it wanted to cut.

I have a feeling that when there were fist fights over X base or X yard there was hardly anybody noticing the cuts to munitions production.  I know when we went into Iraq in 2003 we found out that small arms and 20mm production was way too low.  There was quite a bit of scrambling to get more production online before the stocks ran out.  If we had were burning through artillery munitions in the same proportion we would have been doing the same for artillery, but it wasn't and so it didn't happen.

Steve

[dan/california]

If, big if, this was a drone? Someone has figured that train hunting AI.

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

Update from Konstantin Mashovets:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1865

Quote

A full review will be up tomorrow morning. Today - just a few words about the developments in the Kharkov operational area.

Probably, General Budanov was a little hasty with statements about complete “stabilization.” Although, of course, a certain “slowdown” of Russian offensive actions is observed precisely in the Kharkov operational direction.

- Obviously, over the past day (or even the previous one), the enemy managed to “catch on” to the village of Bugruvatka, moving through the forest north of the village and he is very close to cutting the road from the village of Staritsa to Volchansk, in the area of the automobile bridge over the Siversky Donets River, south of the village, downstream (meaning, downstream).

- Also, the situation with Volchansky himself has become a little clearer.

Probably, the advanced enemy units were able to “enter the city” from the direction of the village of Gatishche (this is the area of Tereshkova Street). But as far as I understand, they only hold a few buildings there.

The enemy failed to advance along the left bank of the city of Siversky Donets to the south of the village of Gatyshche, in the direction of the villages of Sinelnikovo and the villages of Kigelnoye, and thus bypass the city from the west and southwest.

Therefore, he will probably have to storm Volchansk (if the enemy does dare to do so), almost “head-on” - from the side of the same village. Gatyshche, along the road that leads from Volchansk towards the border. Or, try to break through the airfield, north of the city, from the village of Pletenevka.

And this, obviously, will sharply increase the enemy’s losses, at least in his advanced assault units.

- In another sector, apparently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces knocked out the enemy from the village of Zelenoe and “sharply slowed down” his advance from the village of Lukyantsy towards the village of Liptsy.

Yes, the enemy managed to occupy the village of Lukyantsy 2 days ago, however, the advanced units of the enemy’s 18th motorized rifle division (MSD) were unable to advance further in a southwestern direction to the village of Liptsy.

As for the village of Glubokoe, the information there is contradictory.

Some claim that the village is “completely” occupied by the enemy, while others claim that the enemy controls only its northern part. But, be that as it may, it is obvious that over the past 24 hours the enemy has made no progress there.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting article in Politico about the turmoil in Georgia and blaming some of it on the Republicans in the House.  Hypothesis is people around Russia are hedging their bets and the dithering by the US has caused some to throw their lot back in with Putin because they believe he isn't going anywhere.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/us-georgia-unrest-congress-00157989

I dunno... this seems to be falling into the trap of thinking everything that the US does or doesn't do is the most important thing on the planet.  I don't doubt that US dithering is a factor, but I think the biggest factor is that Georgia has been sliding back into Russia's orbit for years now.  Can't blame that on the House GOP (and there was a good quote in there about just that). So at most, I think, it could have given the pro Russian types a little less concern about sliding backwards.

Steve

I am deeply dismayed that the US is not currently organising a round-the-clock airlift delivering CIA agents from all bull**** posts in the US and worldwide directly to Georgia and Armenia. Hell, Special Forces too. This is a golden opportunity to open a second front, such as the Russians were doing all over Africa and Middle East (I am firmly convinced that Hamas attacks in October 2023 were inspired by Russians). A lot of Georgians are actually up for it, I don't think the pro Russian party is that overwhelmingly strong.

In particular, Russia has a ready reserve pool of hundreds of thousands of people employed in their various security forces and even regular army units stationed in the Caucasus, Siberia, etc. They can redirect them to the army in the Ukraine basically at will. Except if those security units are actually engaged where they are currently stationed in actual security tasks....

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 Once we hit steady state we will be awash in artillery shells, let’s hope they do not show up too late.  Russia should be very worried because the clock it ticking against them and they likely know it, hence the push to make hay while the sun shines this year.

Provided that 1) the political decision to supply the Ukraine is still in force (if I am getting too optimistic about this, I remind myself of the time, when the US Wilson's administration was fundamental in setting up the League of Nations and then the next administration declined to join); 2) the Ukrainians themselves do not throw in the towel. 

In broadest of terms, the Russians have at least 3 ways to win this war: (1) political victory in the US; (2) political victory in Europe; (3) military victory in the Ukraine (UKR morale collapse & suing for peace included here, as it would be a consequence of military losses most likely). They will be working hard on all these fields simultaneously.

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I am deeply dismayed that the US is not currently organising a round-the-clock airlift delivering CIA agents from all bull**** posts in the US and worldwide directly to Georgia and Armenia. Hell, Special Forces too. This is a golden opportunity to open a second front, such as the Russians were doing all over Africa and Middle East (I am firmly convinced that Hamas attacks in October 2023 were inspired by Russians). A lot of Georgians are actually up for it, I don't think the pro Russian party is that overwhelmingly strong.

No, that would be smart, risky, and a step towards long-term victory over the new axis.

Western governments are not interested in victory over the axis, they are interested in winning elections and gaining personal benefits, which means they are bound by human animalistic desires of themselves and of their electorate. That means minimizing risks and favoring short-term benefits with long-term disadvantages over long-term benefits with short-term disadvantages. That includes working shoulder to shoulder with the axis towards their own long-term defeat if necessary, both indirectly (by inaction) or directly (through trade).

Dictatorships are incompetent and corrupt, but they are able to accept and relegate short-term disadvantages in pursuit of a long-term goal (how beneficial that long-term goal is? Very debatable. But it's a goal).

Edited May 15 by Carolus

[Tenses]

11 minutes ago, Carolus said:

No, that would be smart, risky, and a step towards long-term victory over the new axis.

Western governments are not interested in victory over the axis, they are interested in winning elections and gaining personal benefits, which means they are bound by human animalistic desires of themselves and of their electorate. That means minimizing risks and favoring short-term benefits with long-term disadvantages over long-term benefits with short-term disadvantages. That includes working shoulder to shoulder with the axis towards their own long-term defeat if necessary, both indirectly (by inaction) or directly (through trade).

Dictatorships are incompetent and corrupt, but they are able to accept and relegate short-term disadvantages in pursuit of a long-term goal (how beneficial that long-term goal is? Very debatable. But it's a goal).

This is very sad but so true.

In the meantime, does anyone predict what could be the moment Ukraine will be able to stabilise the front? Since Avdiivka fall, as seemed not important event, the pace of Russian push is only increasing. I know, there are a lot casualities on RU side and all this stuff but, if attacker takes ground it is much more different situation than we were used to before when stable defense was present across entire front.

Also do we have any more info on more "frontline" drones for Ukraine, hopefully autonomous? We are seeing a massive waves of strategic drone(cruise missile) attacks on the back into RU oil industry and logistics but it seems that frontline stabilisation is now priority. Without drones on the frontline in sufficient numbers and quality, stopping the push is most likely impossible.

Don't get me wrong, I am the last one to jump on the doom train, it is just quite evident that superior numbers from RU are now working better than before. Apart from artillery issues, which maybe will be resolved, drones are now main attrition dealer asset. With superior RU EW I don't see any other option than going at least semi autonomous as soon as possible.

[Anthony P.]

5 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I am deeply dismayed that the US is not currently organising a round-the-clock airlift delivering CIA agents from all bull**** posts in the US and worldwide directly to Georgia and Armenia. Hell, Special Forces too. This is a golden opportunity to open a second front

So... do the exact thing Russia created a giant conspiracy theory about what the US/EU/globalists/perfidious West supposedly did in Ukraine, in order to justify the 2014 and 2022 invasions?

How about "no"?

Edited May 15 by Anthony P.

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Tenses said:

In the meantime, does anyone predict what could be the moment Ukraine will be able to stabilise the front? Since Avdiivka fall, as seemed not important event, the pace of Russian push is only increasing. I know, there are a lot casualities on RU side and all this stuff but, if attacker takes ground it is much more different situation than we were used to before when stable defense was present across entire front.

Also do we have any more info on more "frontline" drones for Ukraine, hopefully autonomous? We are seeing a massive waves of strategic drone(cruise missile) attacks on the back into RU oil industry and logistics but it seems that frontline stabilisation is now priority. Without drones on the frontline in sufficient numbers and quality, stopping the push is most likely impossible.

Possible if russians run out of steam in the short term, my guess to that is they wont.

Whats flowing into the front right now wasn't stockpiled up, its the number of vehicles actively being restored and sent out in new units. What max help short term is the delivery of US shells, they are already having a visible effect in stopping assaults and covering tank columns quickly.

The earliest *possible* long-term depleation of soviet storages are estimated to mid 2025 to late 2025, after that its down to production numbers and the front would slowly freeze as replacements become scarce like they do for the ZSU.

This assumes china stays out of it and doesnt lend a hand to russia.

As for countering the current mess, the units are more exhausted than they were at the beginning of Avdiivka, there are however 3? Light Brigades in forming. I dont know at what stage they are or if they have already been commited.

There is also the plan to build 10 more brigades. Take note the commander of the ground forces states the issue is in heavy Equipment to outfit the units, not the manpower to fill them.

They will be used exclusively to Guard Kyiv though, as the fear is russia will launch another major offensive there.

About drones, Sternenko has a constant fundraiser, he started the 1 million drone Initiative: send.monobank.ua/jar/dzBdJ3737

His Telegram with proof of deliveries and several dozen daily result videos: t.me/ssternenko

 

 

Edited May 15 by Kraft

[mosuri]

Fico of Slovakia in hospital after being shot

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg6761ggxz1o

No details yet on the attacker's motivation but he's been caught

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, Anthony P. said:

So... do the exact thing Russia created a giant conspiracy theory about the US/EU/globalists/perfidious West supposedly did in Ukraine, in order to justify the 2014 and 2022 invasions?

How about "no"?

And they spread that conspiracy and many others so quite successfully. 

And they will continue to do that, because it is intrinsic to their warfare against democracy.

So why not become the monster your enemy paints you as? Within limits.

Russian soldiers are already suiciding with grenades when taken prisoner because they're being told stories about the Ukrainian Gestapo prisons. 

It is entirely necessary to use every reasonable means of warfare and subterfuge in this war that does not unravel the international order too much because your enemy will accuse you anyway and benefit from this accusation anyway.

As long as the West found no defense against this form of warfare, offense is the only defense.

That means sinking Russian, Iranian and North Korean freighters, claiming it must have been an accident or terrorists, and when Russia hands over the evidence of an American torpedo / USV to the UN and threatens to nuke New York (as they are already doing every week) you take a giant sh*t in the middle of the UN assembly and claim it's made up. It doesn't matter. The people who are already on the Axis side will believe what they want anyway.

Russia will always say that it is Ukrainian sabotage or NATO spies. They already do, and plenty of people believe it.

It is time to stop using western power to fump toxic waste in Africa and to do actually heinous **** (to your enemies) because you *can*. Because your enemy is already is doing that and the advantage of keeping the moral high ground becomes meaningless when people get massacred anyway.

Edited May 15 by Carolus

[Anthony P.]

54 minutes ago, Carolus said:

So why not become the monster your enemy paints you as? Within limits.

How about "because it's not within limits?" There's nothing morally defensible about the idea of subverting Georgia into going to war with Russia on "Ukraine's behalf" (quotation marks, because it sounds a lot more like the West/NATO using Georgia as a pawn).

By that logic the DNC might as well have reacted to Pizza-gate by ordering a bunch of child sized traps from the ACME Corporation or Amazon since they'd already been accused of child trafficking. It's clearly morally wrong as well as just completely non-sensical.

 

Edit: Just re-reading your post in detail... what the cr*p? The half of the examples you proposed which wouldn't justify Russia declaring WW3 are just cartoon villain evil-doing for the sake of nothing more than proving the worst Russian propagandist right. I'm almost surprised that you didn't include "let's re-open the concentration camps" to your list of ideas.

Edited May 15 by Anthony P.

[Harmon Rabb]

7 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

I wish them luck in arguing their case.

Seriously, this is a brutal war not a children's playground game. Russian commanders should not be able to stick their tongues out and say you can't catch me! Na-na-na-na! When they are rallying their troops inside Russia to commit more barbaric genocidal acts inside Ukraine.

It really seems like Russia is allowed to strike Ukrainian civilians daily, and we will still not let Ukrainians strike legit military targets inside Russia with some of the weapons that are provided. Ukraine has a full right to defend itself and strike military targets inside Russia according to the laws of war.

Hey according to Russia's own laws a large part of eastern and southern Ukraine is already sacred Russian land and we let Ukrainians hit those areas. Maybe it is time Putin finds out that annexing parts of Ukraine and making it "Russia", could be a double-edged sword here.

I wish to applaud the British and Finnish governments for already announcing that Ukrainians are allowed to use the weapons they provided to strike targets inside Russia, I hope the folks in Washington will do the same soon.

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, mosuri said:

Fico of Slovakia in hospital after being shot

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg6761ggxz1o

No details yet on the attacker's motivation but he's been caught

I love how Czech president responded "let this be a warning what can deepening hatred and aggression in society lead to" which reads like "you did this to yourself, dude".

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Anthony P. said:

How about "because it's not within limits?" There's nothing morally defensible about the idea of subverting Georgia into going to war with Russia on "Ukraine's behalf" (quotation marks, because it sounds a lot more like the West/NATO using Georgia as a pawn).

By that logic the DNC might as well have reacted to Pizza-gate by ordering a bunch of child sized traps from the ACME Corporation or Amazon since they'd already been accused of child trafficking. It's clearly morally wrong as well as just completely non-sensical.

 

Edit: Just re-reading your post in detail... what the cr*p? The half of the examples you proposed which wouldn't justify Russia declaring WW3 are just cartoon villain evil-doing for the sake of nothing more than proving the worst Russian propagandist right. I'm almost surprised that you didn't include "let's re-open the concentration camps" to your list of ideas.

Gonna weigh in here, so what we are dancing around here is political warfare/subversive warfare/active measures/stick-a-new-label-on-it-and-claim-it-was-my-idea.

Is it an option space...sure.  There are actions we could take in the backfield to create strategic friction and disruption, we could even engineer paralysis - it has been done to us.  But this is the last thing from an "easy button."

Subversive warfare campaigns take years to setup - mapping, testing and simply keeping up with internal shifts in an opponents human systems would cripple our current intelligence agencies. We had this back during the Cold War - and we all remember how well CIA follies went in places like Cuba. This is extremely tricky work, even with advent that human terrain mapping is technically "easier" in the information age (it really isn't). 

Assuming you can get enough awareness to even start to play this game, the risks are high.  Human systems are non-linear and potentially explosively auto-catalytic. Subversive warfare has more in common with bomb disposal than anything else - a bunch of barely evolved primates armed with the internet is not a cave one walks into lightly.

And then there is the target.  Free democracies are incredibly messy, but we are resilient as hell compared to rigid autocratic societies.  Dictators have single points of failure that when tripped can get out of hand really fast.  We have talked a lot about a coherent theory of Russian failure.  For subversive warfare - like somehow convincing and supporting Georgia with active SOF and CIA - we could see things get out of hand and out of control very quickly.  No politician is going to sign off on - "Well we are not sure but it might result in Russia falling apart. You know...for Ukraine."  Much more likely given our woeful inexperience it will blow up publicly in our faces.  We cannot take a big "sh#t on the floor at the UN", it is the bloody house we built.

Finally, these sorts of actions are more about strategic shaping for negotiation advantage, not really winning a proxy war.  No single harassing ship sinking is going to force Russia to the table - however, it may very well drive support into Putin's arms and allow him to actually mobilize.  Covert and clandestine in the modern age is a lot harder.  Most times Russia "gets away with it" is not because we can't figure it out, it is because we cannot be bothered.  If Putin wants an oligarch to prove the laws of gravity in another country, do we really care?  Diddling our democracy is finally getting eyebrows raised but no one yet thinks it has been much more than an accelerant, not a cause.  No right wing nut jobs stormed the Hill because Russia or China told them to.  Those powers likely made plays to help it along but this is not a evil masterplan...we are doing most of this to ourselves.

So what?  Well I am sure these options are on the whiteboard. And we very likely have some backfield muttering around potentially friendly power elites that we might be able to woo.  We have provided Ukraine with intel and support to make things happen, but it is all in a nicely controlled box.  We simply are not at the point where we are either able to, or want to "set Russia ablaze."  Nor am I sure we want to escalate to that point anytime soon.

    

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

And they spread that conspiracy and many others so quite successfully. 

And they will continue to do that, because it is intrinsic to their warfare against democracy.

So why not become the monster your enemy paints you as? Within limits.

Russian soldiers are already suiciding with grenades when taken prisoner because they're being told stories about the Ukrainian Gestapo prisons. 

It is entirely necessary to use every reasonable means of warfare and subterfuge in this war that does not unravel the international order too much because your enemy will accuse you anyway and benefit from this accusation anyway.

As long as the West found no defense against this form of warfare, offense is the only defense.

That means sinking Russian, Iranian and North Korean freighters, claiming it must have been an accident or terrorists, and when Russia hands over the evidence of an American torpedo / USV to the UN and threatens to nuke New York (as they are already doing every week) you take a giant sh*t in the middle of the UN assembly and claim it's made up. It doesn't matter. The people who are already on the Axis side will believe what they want anyway.

Russia will always say that it is Ukrainian sabotage or NATO spies. They already do, and plenty of people believe it.

It is time to stop using western power to fump toxic waste in Africa and to do actually heinous **** (to your enemies) because you *can*. Because your enemy is already is doing that and the advantage of keeping the moral high ground becomes meaningless when people get massacred anyway.

This is a well known problem is politics, called "They go low, we go high." There's a youtube video that nicely explains it in US politics context: 

But long story short - if you have two sides fighting, and one is willing to do absolutely everything, legal or not, moral or not, monstrous or not, and the other limits itself to what is "proper", then if that "bad guy" side is able to manipulate various systems to its advantage, it will win.

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I love how Czech president responded "let this be a warning what can deepening hatred and aggression in society lead to" which reads like "you did this to yourself, dude".

Yes, "you reap what you sow" seems fitting here.  Still, shooting him should never be considered an acceptable solution within a democracy, even a dysfunctional one.

This is at least one act that we can't easily see a reason for Russian security services being involved in.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Is it an option space...sure.  There are actions we could take in the backfield to create strategic friction and disruption, we could even engineer paralysis - it has been done to us.  But this is the last thing from an "easy button."

The US tried this for most of the Cold War and historians, I think, mostly line up behind the "it didn't work out so well" school of thought.  There seems to be far more ways things can go wrong than right.

That said, the overt and public influence campaign by the US in Caucuses and Central Asia has been criticized as being weak and generally passive.  There are opportunities there for swaying things a little this way or that.

Steve

[Carolus]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, "you reap what you sow" seems fitting here.  Still, shooting him should never be considered an acceptable solution within a democracy, even a dysfunctional one.

This is at least one act that we can't easily see a reason for Russian security services being involved in.

Steve

To be fair, it is possible that politics didn't even play a role.

It is said Fico had contacts with organized crime in Slovakia. I am not saying it is likely, but it is not impossible that he stepped on someone's shoe.

They arrested the shooter at the scene of the crime, so things will likely become more transparent soon.

[omae2]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

 Take note the commander of the ground forces states the issue is in heavy Equipment to outfit the units, not the manpower to fill them.

 

This is exactly my thoughts after watching the videos from the last week. The 150-200 thousand Ukrainian on the frontline could have hold their position but the lack of equipment and ammunition is putting them into situations where they cannot defend themself. In my humble opinion it doesn't matter if you cram 400 000 guy on the front if they don't have core elements of combined warfare to solve the problems they facing. Its easy to blame the Ukrainians overboard or inside the country but the real reason for russian advances are the lack of support from the west.
When the main issue of a defensing force is not that they have to stop a company of mech inf with tank support is but that doing so while they don't use any atgm only limited arty and drones than its fairly easy to just pour meat and steal on them until they run out.

Here i can see daily the mocking of the russian system and tactics, but lets be honest they advancing, they are not breaking, their back country is strong and they have an neighbor that can support them with anything they need. And the west? They don't even know what they want. Its a disgusting tragic-comedy what is unfolding at the moment. One of the many blunders of western foreign policy of the last two decades. I am deeply concerned about a system that even from a dominant position is unable to achieve its goals, what will happen when the BRICKS countries start unify on more front? How could a system that is so hard to make a decision, so easily getting confused, wasting so much resources, win in the long term against china and its lackey?

These questions will become more and more common around the world when the balloon of western supremacy pop after this war and we all have to face the consequences.

[Tenses]

33 minutes ago, Carolus said:

To be fair, it is possible that politics didn't even play a role.

It is said Fico had contacts with organized crime in Slovakia. I am not saying it is likely, but it is not impossible that he stepped on someone's shoe.

They arrested the shooter at the scene of the crime, so things will likely become more transparent soon.

It doesn't really matter, if politics played the role. It will and already is used politically in a worst possible, disgusting way. What is even worse, the most radical part of the ruling party is already proposing measures, which might mean oppresing opposition even more in light variant and civil war in heavy variant.

Russia and its Useful Idiots are rarely the evil scheme plotting mastermind. But at the same time Russia definitly is the great opportunist, which can take out ridiculous amounts of value for its propaganda from random events like this one.