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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Truly America is so stupid. We can't provide a tiny portion of our gdp to a cause most Americans are fine with, to which no American lives are at risk, to degrade the ability of a enemy, and strengthen our own standing in the world....and we are willingly throwing it away. Holy ****, why would any nation ally with us vs China.

We are starving our ally of life for literally no ****ing reason. No reason except as a favor to a certain someone. And no none of the flimsy excuses pass, most Americans, most senators, representatives support Ukraine or at least espouse sentiments to such.

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All america literally needs to do is make shells. Buy shells. Just make some goddamn artillery ammunition. Just buy some shells from a 3rd party, stuff them into a C-5 or a cargo ship and send them to Europe. And yet for months, months we have simply been unable to.

Disgraceful. There is literally no evidence that certain someone who benefits from this situation will should he be elected, not change this stance of non-assistance. This entire fiasco is due to him not pushing for this to be passed in the first place. This isn't a case of stuff that is in short supply, or needs to be hoarded (the money to buy the shells is the money to open more production lines!!!!!!), it is simply for one reason.

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43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder how much of the decision to do a wholesale military leadership change was based on some of the fundamentals that Kofman points out haven't been improved by the previous leadership.  It would appear manpower generation, at the very least, is something that is seeing early and significant attention.

If the speculations about the reasons for Zaluzny's removal are to be believed, it was rather the other way round. Zaluzny was rumoured to be pushing for new round of mobilisation, and Zelensky to be refusing it because of the mobilisation's unpopularity.

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4 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

If the speculations about the reasons for Zaluzny's removal are to be believed, it was rather the other way round. Zaluzny was rumoured to be pushing for new round of mobilisation, and Zelensky to be refusing it because of the mobilisation's unpopularity.

Syrskyi has stated the same as Zaluzny no?

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37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Truly America is so stupid. We can't provide a tiny portion of our gdp to a cause most Americans are fine with, to which no American lives are at risk, to degrade the ability of a enemy, and strengthen our own standing in the world....and we are willingly throwing it away. Holy ****, why would any nation ally with us vs China.

We are starving our ally of life for literally no ****ing reason. No reason except as a favor to a certain someone. And no none of the flimsy excuses pass, most Americans, most senators, representatives support Ukraine or at least espouse sentiments to such.

 

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Again, this isn't high PR, high value (I dispute the notion a Bradley or Abrams or F-16 is high value, we gave a state that is most certainly partially allied to Iran access to all 3) items. This is literally artillery ammunition. And certainly the bleating cries of those urging Ukraine to make "peace" due to Russian "superiority" are ignoring the fact that Ukraine was defending perfectly fine when it had shells to fire. And certainly the fact that the House can pass so urgently a bill to ban Tiktok that he "opposes" and yet not pass another should merely indicate how pathetic a certain party is for not doing the bare minimum it needs to support Ukraine.

There is nothing in this months long hellish situation Ukraine stands in that suggests that the Republican Party or Trump will support Ukraine. Nada.

And am I getting dangerously "domestic"? Yes, it's only fair, I've certainly harped about a certain German. 😉

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13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Syrskyi has stated the same as Zaluzny no?

I am not sure. I remember Syrski saying that there are many soldiers not used properly, assigned to rear area duties or kept at places without active fighting, like the Bielarussian border etc. who could be reassigned to frontline units. That may indicate that he is more malleable re. mobilisation and more willing to make do through these reassignments.  I don't know if there is a specific English term for such activity, but I believe in German it was called Heldensuche.

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10 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Again, this isn't high PR, high value (I dispute the notion a Bradley or Abrams or F-16 is high value, we gave a state that is most certainly partially allied to Iran access to all 3) items. This is literally artillery ammunition. And certainly the bleating cries of those urging Ukraine to make "peace" due to Russian "superiority" are ignoring the fact that Ukraine was defending perfectly fine when it had shells to fire. And certainly the fact that the House can pass so urgently a bill to ban Tiktok that he "opposes" and yet not pass another should merely indicate how pathetic a certain party is for not doing the bare minimum it needs to support Ukraine.

There is nothing in this months long hellish situation Ukraine stands in that suggests that the Republican Party or Trump will support Ukraine. Nada.

And am I getting dangerously "domestic"? Yes, it's only fair, I've certainly harped about a certain German. 😉

I don't think describing an actual reality is 'getting too domestic'. Trump and his acolytes have made it clear that should he win, Ukraine...and indeed Taiwan...is on it's own and the pressure he is putting on Congress to stymie aid is proof of it.

If you want Ukraine to win, get out there and help make it happen. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Senate-passed Ukraine aid package has been put up for a discharge petition today.
If it reaches 216 signatures, it can be brought to a vote even against the Speaker's opposition.
== As of 12 March ==
Total signatures: 169 (out of 216 needed)
Needed signatures remaining: 47
Democrat signatures: 169 (with 44 remaining).
No Republicans have signed yet.
We assess: Republican Reps are waiting to see how many Democrats sign before they make a decision.
Current top priority: CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE!
-- If they haven't signed yet - urge them to sign the discharge petition (H.Res. 1016) to bring Ukraine aid (bill H.R. 815) to a vote.
-- If they've already signed on - ask them to reach out to their colleagues to encourage them to sign.
You can check your Rep's status at: http://bit.ly/discharge815
Now that the working day is over, we can start intensively circulating the shortlist of Democrats who have not yet signed the discharge petition.
This graphic is based on the data at http://bit.ly/discharge815. Both that list and this graphic are by @community4Ukraine. #call4ukraine
Reposts welcome - no credit required.
Community for Ukraine 🇺🇸🇺🇦
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Oh boo hoo, we have given so much to Ukraine, why not Europe give their "fair share"? Why must America lead...Are we not the world superpower? Are we not the best, strongest, most advanced military world-wide? Do we not have the strongest economy? Tell me how starving our ally of ammunition of cold war era shells does anything positive for our standing to compete with China. Tell me how illustrating that America cannot compete in a war of attrition with some of the decrepit remains of the Soviet Union somehow strengthens us to for a future competing with the world's factory (China). And I'm not being rhetorical, come here you supporter of Ukraine and Trump/Republican Party and tell me how America is benefitting from not funding artillery shells for Ukraine. I am sick and tired of seeing this notion existing, that the Republican Party/Trump will be stronger on China, on ensuring America will be safe when they can't fund goddamn cold war era shells for Ukraine. Am I being "political"? So sorry, but fair is fair, can't bash Europe without being fair to America.

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1 minute ago, FancyCat said:

Oh boo hoo, we have given so much to Ukraine, why not Europe give their "fair share"? Why must America lead...Are we not the world superpower? Are we not the best, strongest, most advanced military world-wide? Do we not have the strongest economy? Tell me how starving our ally of ammunition of cold war era shells does anything positive for our standing to compete with China. Tell me how illustrating that America cannot compete in a war of attrition with some of the decrepit remains of the Soviet Union somehow strengthens us to for a future competing with the world's factory (China). And I'm not being rhetorical, come here you supporter of Ukraine and Trump/Republican Party and tell me how America is benefitting from not funding artillery shells for Ukraine. I am sick and tired of seeing this notion existing, that the Republican Party/Trump will be stronger on China, on ensuring America will be safe when they can't fund goddamn cold war era shells for Ukraine. Am I being "political"? So sorry, but fair is fair, can't bash Europe without being fair to America.

I get the need to vent and all, but you are kinda yelling at the church choir here.  Steve either banned or we chased off the right wing twits (and I mean MAGA-types, not honest Republicans who's biggest crime is simply losing control of their party).

To paraphrase Kofman, Ukraine will never run out of ammunition, they can simply chose to "fire less" (The_Capt rolls his eyes).

This war is in a odd place right now.  Ukraine is under strain and suffering but also appear to have upped their strategic strike game significantly.  Russia, is also suffering but is showing improvements in some disturbing areas, like ISR.  No one has solved for the operational stalemate that has evolved.  Hard to really say what is going to happen but I am getting a strange sense that something is going to give one way or the other soon.

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Oh Biden left Afghanistan, who signed the agreement paving the way for American withdrawal? Oh Biden is old and frail, you dummy who led the way to the unmasking of the Russian bear? If Trump is so "strong" why is the House still not passing a Ukraine bill? Why is the Republican majority leader refusing to pass a Ukraine bill, refusing to pass a lone Ukraine bill, hell even refusing to pass a much narrower military only funding bill (no, no crying about funding a economy at war is not right, WWII, part of our aid to the Allies involved ensuring their economies and people could fight, not just guns, not just tanks, not just trucks, not just American blood, it was wheat, it was food, it was money). This is not Bradleys, Abrams, not cruise missiles, not money directly to Ukrainian oligarchs, not American blood, this is money intended to go to American businesses, American workers, to make artillery shells to explode on top of Russians, to make production lines so vitally needed for any future conflict. Tell me why Trump is blocking it that you whom supports Ukraine (if you don't support Ukraine, wrong thread to be in), feels like it's the right thing to do. Tell me why the Republican majority leader is blocking it. How does this improve America? How does it benefit us?

For all the gripping about Europe, at least they are holding strong after some tepidness. Sure Germany isn't giving Tartus the fools but by God, artillery shells are flowing. France, God bless Macron, when we have Putin and co spouting bull**** about concessions needed for peace, rhetoric it may be, warnings about NATO in Ukraine, a line where Ukraine will always remain free, meanwhile in action, in rhetoric, we have a Republican Party doing this ****.

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59 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

If the speculations about the reasons for Zaluzny's removal are to be believed, it was rather the other way round. Zaluzny was rumoured to be pushing for new round of mobilisation, and Zelensky to be refusing it because of the mobilisation's unpopularity.

That's not the issue Kofman pointed to specifically, though obviously that's a possible solution to the manpower issues.  No, what I'm talking about is the willingness to go after the various ways existing manpower is diverted away from the front.  Tackling this does appear to be something new that Syrisky is doing that maybe Zaluzny wasn't.

It's like a budget that can't meet its obligations.  Sure, throwing more money into the mix might make things better, but shouldn't the wasteful line items contributing to the shortfall be dealt with before doing that?  Certainly that's the proper approach businesses (well, good ones anyway) pursue when there's obvious inefficiencies/deficiencies already identified.

Steve

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Yeah, let's keep the political ranting down to a minimum.  As The_Capt said, there's nobody here that agrees with the GOP that helping Ukraine is somehow wasteful or someone else's problem to deal with.  Nor does anybody here think the amount of money sent to Ukraine is wasteful, and in fact is an excellent investment opportunity (to frame it in business terms).  Venting about how the most vocal "America First" types are pursuing policies that are pushing America in the opposite direction isn't necessary to do here.  We get it.

Steve

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56 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I don't think describing an actual reality is 'getting too domestic'. Trump and his acolytes have made it clear that should he win, Ukraine...and indeed Taiwan...is on it's own and the pressure he is putting on Congress to stymie aid is proof of it.

If you want Ukraine to win, get out there and help make it happen. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Senate-passed Ukraine aid package has been put up for a discharge petition today.
If it reaches 216 signatures, it can be brought to a vote even against the Speaker's opposition.
== As of 12 March ==
Total signatures: 169 (out of 216 needed)
Needed signatures remaining: 47
Democrat signatures: 169 (with 44 remaining).
No Republicans have signed yet.
We assess: Republican Reps are waiting to see how many Democrats sign before they make a decision.
Current top priority: CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE!
-- If they haven't signed yet - urge them to sign the discharge petition (H.Res. 1016) to bring Ukraine aid (bill H.R. 815) to a vote.
-- If they've already signed on - ask them to reach out to their colleagues to encourage them to sign.
You can check your Rep's status at: http://bit.ly/discharge815
Now that the working day is over, we can start intensively circulating the shortlist of Democrats who have not yet signed the discharge petition.
This graphic is based on the data at http://bit.ly/discharge815. Both that list and this graphic are by @community4Ukraine. #call4ukraine
Reposts welcome - no credit required.
Community for Ukraine 🇺🇸🇺🇦

Thanks, Bill. I appreciate the resources you provided, and the context for the discharge petition. Took a moment to track down my rep (who hasn't signed) and rattled the windows a bit.

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1 hour ago, billbindc said:

I don't think describing an actual reality is 'getting too domestic'. Trump and his acolytes have made it clear that should he win, Ukraine...and indeed Taiwan...is on it's own and the pressure he is putting on Congress to stymie aid is proof of it.

If you want Ukraine to win, get out there and help make it happen. 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Senate-passed Ukraine aid package has been put up for a discharge petition today.
If it reaches 216 signatures, it can be brought to a vote even against the Speaker's opposition.
== As of 12 March ==
Total signatures: 169 (out of 216 needed)
Needed signatures remaining: 47
Democrat signatures: 169 (with 44 remaining).
No Republicans have signed yet.
We assess: Republican Reps are waiting to see how many Democrats sign before they make a decision.
Current top priority: CALL YOUR REPRESENTATIVE!
-- If they haven't signed yet - urge them to sign the discharge petition (H.Res. 1016) to bring Ukraine aid (bill H.R. 815) to a vote.
-- If they've already signed on - ask them to reach out to their colleagues to encourage them to sign.
You can check your Rep's status at: http://bit.ly/discharge815
Now that the working day is over, we can start intensively circulating the shortlist of Democrats who have not yet signed the discharge petition.
This graphic is based on the data at http://bit.ly/discharge815. Both that list and this graphic are by @community4Ukraine. #call4ukraine
Reposts welcome - no credit required.
Community for Ukraine 🇺🇸🇺🇦

The resources in this post are extremely useful. My rep has signed, but there is enough information to really look at which Dems haven't, and might be moveable. Then get started on the most likely Republicans.

Edited by dan/california
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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I get the need to vent and all, but you are kinda yelling at the church choir here.  Steve either banned or we chased off the right wing twits (and I mean MAGA-types, not honest Republicans who's biggest crime is simply losing control of their party).

To paraphrase Kofman, Ukraine will never run out of ammunition, they can simply chose to "fire less" (The_Capt rolls his eyes).

This war is in a odd place right now.  Ukraine is under strain and suffering but also appear to have upped their strategic strike game significantly.  Russia, is also suffering but is showing improvements in some disturbing areas, like ISR.  No one has solved for the operational stalemate that has evolved.  Hard to really say what is going to happen but I am getting a strange sense that something is going to give one way or the other soon.

Oil refineries are the thing that Russia can't fix, can't move, and probably can't buy enough refined products on the world market to replace. Ukraine needs to keep the hammering on this. The Russian Orlan/Zala operational class UAVs have been a problem since the beginning of the war, it needs solving. Much more so than smaller drones it seems like they could be engaged by other drones of the same general performance level. I still don't have a good idea why this hasn't happened. And if any of the laser widgets work they ought be in Ukraine demonstrating it in this same role. You don't even have to shoot them down, just fry the camera sensor.

Edit: Would F-16s be better at this than the Soviet ere stuff Ukraine currently has, or would the have to fly to high, to close to the front? It isn't nearly as flashy as launching cruise missiles at Sebastopol, but it might be more important.

Edited by dan/california
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35 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Thanks, Bill. I appreciate the resources you provided, and the context for the discharge petition. Took a moment to track down my rep (who hasn't signed) and rattled the windows a bit.

Love it. Thank you.

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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Oh boo hoo, we have given so much to Ukraine, why not Europe give their "fair share"? Why must America lead...Are we not the world superpower? Are we not the best, strongest, most advanced military world-wide? Do we not have the strongest economy? Tell me how starving our ally of ammunition of cold war era shells does anything positive for our standing to compete with China. Tell me how illustrating that America cannot compete in a war of attrition with some of the decrepit remains of the Soviet Union somehow strengthens us to for a future competing with the world's factory (China). And I'm not being rhetorical, come here you supporter of Ukraine and Trump/Republican Party and tell me how America is benefitting from not funding artillery shells for Ukraine. I am sick and tired of seeing this notion existing, that the Republican Party/Trump will be stronger on China, on ensuring America will be safe when they can't fund goddamn cold war era shells for Ukraine. Am I being "political"? So sorry, but fair is fair, can't bash Europe without being fair to America.

If your feelings are that strong then please use the link provided above to call every Representative you can. Thanks. 

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2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Love it. Thank you.

My first thought is that member from states that have a top two primary, as opposed to the more common partisan variety might be more vulnerable to pressure on this, although Jayapul seems unmovable in WA-7. 

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Ooooh this big strategic strikes on the oil facilities are going to really hurt Russia badly. A whole spring of this and they won’t be exporting much oil or producing much gas for that matter, and they don’t make the parts for refineries (IIRC it’s all western), and it’s not like spares sit around anyways.

Also, to everybody who was all wah wah long range drones don’t exist wah wah last 2 years, render the salad unto Caesar!

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3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Russia, is also suffering but is showing improvements in some disturbing areas, like ISR. 

This article may explain an increase in Russian ISR:

Russian Shahed-136 With Camera, Cellular Modem Could Be A Big Problem For Ukraine (twz.com)

Co-pilot summary

Quote
  • Shahed-136 Modifications: The article discusses the latest Russian development of the Shahed-136 drone, which now includes a camera and cellular modem for real-time visual intelligence.
  • Operational Impact: This upgrade could significantly enhance Russian reconnaissance capabilities by providing beyond-line-of-sight connectivity, a feature previously lacking1.
  • Potential Weaknesses: Despite the advantages, the use of cellular data transmission could expose the drones to electronic warfare and cyber attacks.
  • Strategic Implications: The modified Shahed-136 drones could offer real-time targeting information, potentially changing the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine.

 

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2 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Ooooh this big strategic strikes on the oil facilities are going to really hurt Russia badly. A whole spring of this and they won’t be exporting much oil or producing much gas for that matter, and they don’t make the parts for refineries (IIRC it’s all western), and it’s not like spares sit around anyways.

Also, to everybody who was all wah wah long range drones don’t exist wah wah last 2 years, render the salad unto Caesar!

Exactly.  Russia was already heavily dependent upon western companies for its infrastructure generally, though I don't know about specific components.  They could have what it takes to rebuild them, they might not.  Either way it is going to cost them a lot of money as well as time to get things back up and running.

Steve

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Regarding the raid into the Kursk region... that is a pretty heavy force, judging from the videos.  And this goes to show us what warfare can look like against an ill prepared and/or unmotivated defense even in this age of all the lethality we've been documenting/discussing on a hardened front.

I'm very interested to see if these guys intend on staying on Russian territory or if they are going to withdraw as they did with the previous raids.

Steve

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8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Early geolocation- 50km behind frontlines)

Near Novopavlivka, Dnipropetrovsk oblast.

Helicopters of 12th Army aviation brigade. Two pilots killed.

GIjL9FpXwAAescK?format=jpg&name=large

There are rumors, sharply increased successes of Russian strikes in last two weeks it's not because their rised recon&strike capabilities, but because of possible information leakage from higher HQ level - all episodes were in Donetsk oblast or close  

Edited by Haiduk
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