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UKR BMP-2 of 1st mech.battalion of 30th mech.brigade shells Russian position on northern outskirt of Syn'kivka, Kupiansk direction. Russians in last days could slightly push back our troops here and gained foothold on northern outskirt of this village

Also pay atatntion how unstable BMP's gun barrel during firing

 

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The ground conditions in fields western from Avdiivka

Summary from different UKR TGs about Avdiivka situation

 - 3rd brigade arrived in time - 110th brigade was completely exhausted and couldn't hold the line. Reinforcement allowed to stabilize situation from "catastrofical" to "very hard". Units of 110th brigade now are gradually withdrawing to the rear - first time for almost 1,5 years.

- Main effort of Russian on the north - to cut off coke plant ("AKXЗ" mark on the map) from the town, cut off urban area of Avdiivka with multystorey buildings (so called "9th quarter" or "Khimik"), capture fortified "Zenit" position on the south (former AD basem having underground bunkers and by rumors underground pass to coke plant). Now "Zenit" ("Зенит" on the map)is almost encircled

Image

- Reportedly 3rd assault brigade could push back Russians from Industrial avenu in coke plant area and holds transport depo ("Avtobaza"). But due to opsec reasons there are no verified informations about 3rd brigade successs.

- Main trouble of our forces in Avdiivka are gliding bombs, which Russians don't spare. Each day they drop 35-40 heav bombs (including 1500 kg) on Avdiivka and villages in the rear - Lastochmkyne and Sieverne. AD here is very weak. Many criticism in adress of gen. Tarnavskyi and Air Force Command, which probably don't want to risk with Patriots of NASAMS for ambush actions, but infantry and logistic suffer hard under these strikes. 

On the video Russian bombs impact urban "9th quarter", coke plant is further on the backgrond

 

Edited by Haiduk
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20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR BMP-2 of 1st mech.battalion of 30th mech.brigade shells Russian position on northern outskirt of Syn'kivka, Kupiansk direction. Russians in last days could slightly push back our troops here and gained foothold on northern outskirt of this village

Also pay atatntion how unstable BMP's gun barrel during firing

 

 

29 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

A girl, Bradley commander of 47th mech.briagde issiued a video how her crew works near Avdiivka. Rare episode, how look TOW launches through the thermal sight. 

 

It is even more noticeable when you compare it to the Bradley firing in this video. The 25mm is stitching rounds down that tree line like you laid it out with a ruler.

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On 2/13/2024 at 4:54 PM, Kraft said:

Also while Im at it, if translations dont work the fighter who got shot by the Machine Gunner (in the head?) Survived but was badly wounded.

He is apparently alive and back fighting. He commented in this reddit post ( https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/1aqo3gp/if_you_watched_the_combat_footage_from_chosen/

Quote

Evening folks, 'Mossy' here. I'm the dude that got shot in the neck in this video.

First off, thanks for your concerns! I'm doing good now. I healed quickly thanks to the medical professionals that dealt with me and a great rehab team in Kyiv. I've been back fighting on the frontline since the start of December and I'm pretty much back to 100% despite a tiny bit of nerve damage I'm still working on.

As for the corner thing, I just want to clarify a few things because I get it looks bad, completely understandable. Unfortunately the footage is edited in a way that doesn't show what actually happened. There wasn't actually a corner in that point of the trench. It was like a chicane kinda thing, not big enough to conceal a human body. The dude that shot me was about 20 metres down the trench. The footage makes it look like he was sitting down and I got shot whilst peeking, but that's not the case. He actually stood up, lifted his PKM and hajji fired sporadically over the top of the trench. The rounds cut through the soil and hit me directly in the neck from my front, rather than from my side. In the uncut drone footage you can see what really happened. That same burst of fire actually got another one of our guys in the head too, luckily it only clipped his helmet. He was outside the trench at the time and couldn't have physically been hit from that angle if there was an enemy in that part of the trench.

My mistake was not knowing how much dry soil a 7.62 round fired from a PKM

 

 

Edited by Offshoot
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4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence.

Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov

Tsezar_Kunikov_in_the_Red_Sea_(2003).jpg

What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns

2560px-%D0%90%D0%A3_%D0%90%D0%9A-725_%D0

It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all.

What else does it have? Well, guys like this.

faae2a174a502ddb7dd9b52b1379ec1e.jpg

This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it).

Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants.

HMS_Daring-1.jpg

What does this fellow have?

Two DS30B rapid fire cannon

DS30M-30mm-gun-22.jpg

Two Phalanx CIWS

793px-HMS_Daring_(D32)_Phalanx_CIWS.jpg?

By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target

Two .50 Cals

50-Calibre-gun-HMS-Prince-of-Wales-2.jpg

It is already impressive but here is more. 

T45 usually have at least one helicopter

wildcat_gulf_3.jpg

The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. 

Wildcat-Martlet-Missiles-Royal-Navy-2-1.

When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops.

Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs

30mm-LMM-2.jpg

This is how LMM works (different mount)

The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activityNow RU chickens come home to roost.

Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle. 

Peace on Russian corruption and dated equipment.  But almost everything you list on that Type 45 is designed either for 1) enemy conventional aircraft, 2) enemy missiles and 3) enemy conventional surface combatants.

Not a lot are designed for swarming small surface or air systems, let alone small underwater systems.  Ships create big defensive bubbles but are not designed nor built for these sorts of threats, any better than modern mech was.

So if someone were to say, swarm that Type 45 with 50-100 small surface and flying FPVs those systems would quickly be overwhelmed, particularly in choppy seas.  None of those small system could kill that Type 45 but they could do critical damage which is just about as good as.

We of course are going keep putting up freakin Thales commercials and feel better until someone seriously damages one of these ships out on the open ocean.  Gawd help us when sub-surface gets into the game.  And then someone is going to hybrid and put FPVs onto a small subsurface vehicle so we get twice the fun. 

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35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

We of course are going keep putting up freakin Thales commercials and feel better until someone seriously damages one of these ships out on the open ocean.  Gawd help us when sub-surface gets into the game.  And then someone is going to hybrid and put FPVs onto a small subsurface vehicle so we get twice the fun. 

These drones could in theory also become small torpedo-bearers. Their payloads are easily reaching something circa 200kg, which seems not far from weight of light torpedoes already used by various navies. There are technical limitations here probably, but stationing several clandestine drones 2-3 kms from target and shooting a volley would leave very little time for ship crews to react.

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html

Hard times for sailors, that's for sure.

Edited by Beleg85
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35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Bilohorivka, Luhansk oblast. Drone unit 'Black Ravens" of 81st airmobile brigade finishes off anandoned and damaged Russian BMPs near the village

 

 

I wonder if that khaki coloured box with antenna attached to the back of the vehicle is a new drone jammer.

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Republican House Intel Chair sounds classified alarm about Russian nukes in space. Related topic, as  such intel may be a significant part of the Administration’s overall understanding of Russian threats that affects its Ukraine policy.

“The White House's national security adviser and leading lawmakers on Capitol Hill sought to allay public concerns on Wednesday after the House Intelligence Committee chairman warned of a "national security threat" related to a "destabilizing foreign military capability" so serious that President Joe Biden should declassify "all information" about it.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-plans-brief-lawmakers-house-chairman-warns/story?id=107232293

A current and a former U.S. official said the new intelligence was related to Russia’s attempts to develop a space-based antisatellite nuclear weapon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/us/politics/intelligence-russia-nuclear.html

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1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Republican House Intel Chair sounds classified alarm about Russian nukes in space. Related topic, as  such intel may be a significant part of the Administration’s overall understanding of Russian threats that affects its Ukraine policy.

“The White House's national security adviser and leading lawmakers on Capitol Hill sought to allay public concerns on Wednesday after the House Intelligence Committee chairman warned of a "national security threat" related to a "destabilizing foreign military capability" so serious that President Joe Biden should declassify "all information" about it.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-plans-brief-lawmakers-house-chairman-warns/story?id=107232293

A current and a former U.S. official said the new intelligence was related to Russia’s attempts to develop a space-based antisatellite nuclear weapon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/us/politics/intelligence-russia-nuclear.html

Kinda feels like that Chinese balloon.  As I recall any nuclear device in space is pretty much a suicide weapon.  The EMP would travel down the Van Allen belt and risk frying everything.  Of course if one were Russia it might just level the playing field…for awhile.  Ironically ballon’s are the viable offset.  High altitude balloons can make for very good strategic ISR and communication backups.

But gotta be honest, the whole thing sounds a bit Strangelove.

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2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

These drones could in theory also become small torpedo-bearers. Their payloads are easily reaching something circa 200kg, which seems not far from weight of light torpedoes already used by various navies. There are technical limitations here probably, but stationing several clandestine drones 2-3 kms from target and shooting a volley would leave very little time for ship crews to react.

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html

Hard times for sailors, that's for sure.

Exactly.  Even FPVs with ROG warheads launched off a small USV with repeaters going back to shore links could be really dangerous.  The freakin Navy guys lose their minds if you smoke in the wrong spot, let alone fire off an RPG.  

The counter is what I suspect will be the counter on land, counter-unmanned system, unmanned systems.  That will mitigate surface and air, subsurface could simply remain a Wild West.

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2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Kinda feels like that Chinese balloon.  As I recall any nuclear device in space is pretty much a suicide weapon.  The EMP would travel down the Van Allen belt and risk frying everything.  Of course if one were Russia it might just level the playing field…for awhile.  Ironically ballon’s are the viable offset.  High altitude balloons can make for very good strategic ISR and communication backups.

But gotta be honest, the whole thing sounds a bit Strangelove.

I believe we tested nukes in space. The EMP didn't fry absolutely everything. Just everything over roughly a continent-sized region, which is probably fine if your opponent is on the other side of the world. I believe the biggest problem with nukes in space is that it puts everyone on a hair trigger since the amount of time you have to respond to a nuclear attack is basically zero. Every time it passes overhead (which, in Low Earth Orbit, would be about once every 30 minutes) there is a chance that you could be facing a practically instantaneous first strike. Escalation risks skyrocket to the point that it just isn't a viable concept.

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42 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Kinda feels like that Chinese balloon.  As I recall any nuclear device in space is pretty much a suicide weapon.  The EMP would travel down the Van Allen belt and risk frying everything.  Of course if one were Russia it might just level the playing field…for awhile.  Ironically ballon’s are the viable offset.  High altitude balloons can make for very good strategic ISR and communication backups.

But gotta be honest, the whole thing sounds a bit Strangelove.

World famous tire guy Trent Telenko took the bait so bad it's going to require major surgery to get the hook out of his entrails: 

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yeah I was stunned by that. He's of an age to 1)Remember Goldeneye and 2) use his bloody eyes and see CCCP on the side. Surely he's being metaphorical? 

No. Just terminally outside his lane. Social media melts people's brains. 

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3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

These drones could in theory also become small torpedo-bearers. Their payloads are easily reaching something circa 200kg, which seems not far from weight of light torpedoes already used by various navies. There are technical limitations here probably, but stationing several clandestine drones 2-3 kms from target and shooting a volley would leave very little time for ship crews to react.

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html

Hard times for sailors, that's for sure.

At the risk of dragging in more historical analogies, what you describe sounds remarkably like the original torpedo boats when they first became a thing in the late C19th-early C20th which similarly scared many naval thinkers of the time. That's torpedo boats before the long, slow evolution into torpedo boat-destroyers...destroyers...something about the size of a cruiser like, say, a Type 45.

Whatever the white elephant type qualities of the aircraft carrier, British or otherwise, who fancies a bet that they end up as a means of conveying your swarm of UAVs into a lunch position where they can be unleashed on the other side's swarm of UAVs, or something.

 

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What's interesting about this...and the above is pretty certainly what the flap is about...is that it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. The entire Russian way of war has been entirely invalidated by the ubiquitous ISR of American satellites. In a big war with the West, they simply couldn't hope to fight without countering it.

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4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

These drones could in theory also become small torpedo-bearers. Their payloads are easily reaching something circa 200kg, which seems not far from weight of light torpedoes already used by various navies. There are technical limitations here probably, but stationing several clandestine drones 2-3 kms from target and shooting a volley would leave very little time for ship crews to react.

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html

Hard times for sailors, that's for sure.

All the lightweight (2-300kg) torpedoes seem to be anti-submarine, not anti ship

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36 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Is the timing of the satellite weapons flap perhaps designed to help get the US funding through?

Cui bono and all that.

 

 

 

Maybe but it has to be said that the GOP side of the House isn't notable for its strategic nous. The freak outs about EMP's have been a long running theme in right wing fever dreams and this could simply be that playing out. On such absurd foundations does the future sometimes lie.

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25 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Maybe but it has to be said that the GOP side of the House isn't notable for its strategic nous. The freak outs about EMP's have been a long running theme in right wing fever dreams and this could simply be that playing out. On such absurd foundations does the future sometimes lie.

The timing is interesting for sure.  Russia may have deliberately pushed this in order to get the American right wing to push harder for appeasement.  I expect Elon to comment on how we need to give Russia every first born white American baby if that's what it takes to have peace.  After all, he's got his Starlink sats to worry about.

Steve

 

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