How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Seedorf81]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I'm at a loss for where the advantage or usability is for UKR SOF in Sudan. Wagner is out of the fight, WhatsHisFace fell out of the ultimate window and every experienced man is needed at home. There aren't enough UKR in Sudan to do anything more than minor irritation.

So why are UKR snipers dicking around in east bloody Africa? Why pop off Wagnerites in the savannah or jungle instead of Donetsk or Zaporizhia or Kherson where, y'know, it  might actually make a teeny tiny difference? Why not have them in Rostov On Don, freaking out the fat HQ folks?

I'm baffled.

How did you come to the conclusion that Wagner is out of the fight? Perhaps the name doesn't mean as much as it did, but there are still loads of "Wagnerian" Russian troops/specops in Africa, and they most likely haven't turned into "people-loving-softies".

Ukraine army high command is smart enough to not let snipers "dick around" anywhere, I think.

Russia is still a serious presence in Africa, and they're trying to get even more influence. And in some cases with - for us, probably - surprising succes. This is Wagner in CAR, for instance:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67625139

And recent Russian influence in Burkina Faso:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67833215

Seems to me there's still some work to do for Ukrainian snipers.

[Seedorf81]

4 hours ago, Carolus said:

Do these deaths happen in a conflict that is fundemantelly challenging the global order? 

Political self-interest is a reality, as well as prioritsarion of resources, and societies who forget that tend to be not around for long.

I thank you for the implications that other posts of mine were agreeable to you, despite being someone who came to this forum as a someone "outside the field". 

Well, we cannot be sure. If global warming, which looks to me like an exponentially growing problem, or these wars turns out to make huge parts of Africa uninhabitable, we can expect the amount of asylumseekers and refugees to grow by millions and millions. And that will most certainly fundamentally change Europe. And maybe, perhaps, even global order.

Maybe not. But there is also no certainty the war in Ukraine is going to change the global order. Even if Russia would conquer all of Ukraine, which I personally think is impossible and way, way waaaaay more unlikely than the Africa uninhabitable-doomscenario, that wouldn't necessarely be challenging global order.

It would change life for the Ukrainians, very nastily so, but the West and the Russians and the Chinese and the rest of the world could continue hopping along in the same stupidity as the world does for the last decades. (Centuries? Millenia?)

And societies are as ignorant as individual humans, they (most of 'm) only realize that we should have done something to keep our luck/fortune/well-being, when it has been taken away from us.

I don't know if it can be a bit of a reassurance, but in the foreseeable future millions, or maybe even billions, of people are gonna discover that what people in Gaza and Ukraine are discovering now: the "good times" are gone, and it will take decades for them to come back again. But eventually they probably will.

 

And I do appreciate your postings. Typically human behaviour from me, perhaps? Hardly noticing or appreciating good or even brilliant postings, but immediately reacting to a post that SEEMS to call for criticism, so I can vent my opinion that, of course, is "much better" and "wiser" and what not.  I could make excuses for that behaviour, but I think we all suffer from it, from time to time.

 

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Is that actually the case? What if I wanted to inflict terror, but I used social media to lower young women’s self esteem and make them kill themselves? What about eco-terrorists and derailing trains?

Based on these examples I am not exactly sure what we are talking about.  A VEO is a broader term this encompasses terrorism - like brandy and cognac.  During GWOT the legal framework evolved to try and go to “war” with terrorists and not everyone…but kinda felt like we did anyway.  Terrorism is the use of violence against a civilian population (so automatically illegal under LOAC) to attempt to initiate political change. 

So random violence against women without a political objective could be a VEO if it was organized like INCELs (I really don’t know if these clowns have a political agenda). would likely fail to meet the definition of terrorism.  Eco-terrorism is…well terrorism.

The idea was to try and delineate between insurgents and resistance, who are more often fighting guerrilla warfare, and die hard terror groups like AQ or ISIL.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I'm at a loss for where the advantage or usability is for UKR SOF in Sudan. Wagner is out of the fight, WhatsHisFace fell out of the ultimate window and every experienced man is needed at home. There aren't enough UKR in Sudan to do anything more than minor irritation.

So why are UKR snipers dicking around in east bloody Africa? Why pop off Wagnerites in the savannah or jungle instead of Donetsk or Zaporizhia or Kherson where, y'know, it  might actually make a teeny tiny difference? Why not have them in Rostov On Don, freaking out the fat HQ folks?

I'm baffled.

That is because Hollywood has likely warped your understanding of what SOF does.  It can be argued that the core strategic functions of SOF are sensor, signal, weapon and integration. In this context UKR SOF are signalling.  By removing a few Wagnerites from the gene pool in Sudan Ukraine is signalling that it can 1) project power internationally, and 2) will take this war international as well.  This sends a message to both Russia and the rest of the world.

The overall effect is that Russian forces are not safe anywhere and are all fair game.  This will give Russia pause as now its frontline is no longer Zaporizhya, it is wherever Russian military (or paramilitary) are standing. This projects enormous un-decision onto an opponent.

It is working because we are all talking about it.

Edited January 8 by The_Capt

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Gents, IMHO this whole democracies vs autocracies discussion is driven more by faith/ideology/wishful thinking than actual facts.

Historically, the conceptually perfect social system is not run by humans at all.  The Kingdom of Heaven (the one in the Bible, not Orlando Bloom) is the perfect system of government - it is also a complete dystopia.

A perfect, infallible non-human (but human adjacent) ruler with supreme power and awareness ruling masses who are essentially enslaved by adoration for the ruler and have surrendered all agency while basking in His glory.  

We basically have a cult/hive mind of unity in a benign dictatorship in a strategic context of infinite resources and no autonomy.  One could argue that in such a state, we don’t even need government as there is no need for strategy or policy frameworks but there we are…JC, Big Guy and Spooky all hanging out in the easiest government jobs since someone invented the DMV.

Every other system we come up with is but a pale shade of grey…and it is all our fault, but we should muddle through as best we can until the Lads come back and punch in.

 

[Seedorf81]

New wave of Russian missiles and drones.

51 Missiles. only 18 shot down.

8 Shahed -drones, all downed.

Civilian deaths at least 4, dozens of injured.

Some worries about why Ukrainian anti-air defence seemed to falter here and there.

[Haiduk]

35 minutes ago, Seedorf81 said:

New wave of Russian missiles and drones.

51 Missiles. only 18 shot down.

8 Shahed -drones, all downed.

Civilian deaths at least 4, dozens of injured.

Some worries about why Ukrainian anti-air defence seemed to falter here and there.

Because Russians launched many ballistic missiles, which can be intercepted only by PAC-3/SAMT-P. And cities were hit, which weren't covered by these systems.  We have per one battery of each

Launches statistic:

Kh-101/555 - 24 (18 shot down)

Shaheds - 8 (8 shot down)

S-300/400 - 7 (0 intercepted)

Kh-22 - 8 (0)

Iskander-M - 6 (0)

Kinzhal - 4 (0)

Kh-31P - 2 (0)

Kharkiv, Dnipro, Novomoskovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zaporizhzhia were struck

Edited January 8 by Haiduk

[Nastypastie]

There's a new Kraut if anyone likes his stuff.

 

[billbindc]

7 hours ago, Carolus said:

Oh, there were pro-German head of states and 20% to 30% of elected legislative members were stoutly pro-German among many countries of the Allies? Because that is roughly where we are now. 

If that was the case, I really need to read more about the period.

 

I agree. 

But isn't that why the main strategy of Russia and China is to make sure the population does not activate?

How would you judge the situation so far? Does the US and EU population strike you as aroused to stand up for democracy while people are being killed daily solely because they wanted to be their friends and allies? 

Since people seemed to agree lately that a nuclear power which calls the Western World its sworn enemy is absolutely no worry for the vast majority of the Western population and plays no role for their elections, it seems that the answer is no, right?

I would very strongly suggest reading up on the February insurrection in Paris of 1934 or Troublesome Young Men by Lynn Olson just for a quick starter. Britain was ruled by appeasers who frankly admired the fascists for their anti-Bolshevism and that was pretty universally true of the right in France as well.

In other news, the view of this war from the other side isn't particularly rosy either:  https://www.thedailybeast.com/shocking-reality-of-ukraine-blowback-hammers-putin-at-home

 

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

How did you come to the conclusion that Wagner is out of the fight? Perhaps the name doesn't mean as much as it did, but there are still loads of "Wagnerian" Russian troops/specops in Africa, and they most likely haven't turned into "people-loving-softies".

Ukraine army high command is smart enough to not let snipers "dick around" anywhere, I think.

Russia is still a serious presence in Africa, and they're trying to get even more influence. And in some cases with - for us, probably - surprising succes. This is Wagner in CAR, for instance:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67625139

And recent Russian influence in Burkina Faso:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67833215

Seems to me there's still some work to do for Ukrainian snipers.

I'm sure the SOF themselves are working, but what's the strategic benefit here? Wagner is out of the real fight, in Europe, as an organization. UKR cannot realistically hope to combat its push into Africa. Zit-popping some Wagner's head in Burkina Faso helps the war efoort, and how? Is it just for propaganda purposes or morale? Pretty weak ROI... I'm not seeing 

As mentioned above, this could easily be a more cowboy, loosey-goosey operation than portrayed/understood, ie no pull on UKR resources but useful visibility. Likely ZSU or GUR doesn't get involved much, but sends some cash and occasional gear. Meh. 

[Carolus]

4 hours ago, Astrophel said:

I think you are wrong on this, at least from my essentially European perspective.

 In the first winter of the war European citizens demonstrated an uncomplaining resolve to manage the energy blackmail and huge costs emanating from russia and their allies in Opec.  Ukrainian women and children were sheltered from russian attack by being given a unique refugee status - millions of ukrainians have been adopted.  An unintended side effect is that tens of millions of Europeans have had the opportunity to meet ukrainians at work, around schools and refugee centres with largely positive feelings resulting.  I have heard no complaints about donating military equipment to ukraine, or about the economic subsidies being given generously.

I am not sure from which European country you are. I live in Germany, though I am half Polish and half Swedish. 

Here in Germany the rethoric against Ukrainian refugees was subdued only for the first few weeks and honestly, that was mostly because they were not Muslim or brown. 

But there is now widespread antipathy against Ukrainian refugees as well, perfectly covered with the two Russia-aligned parties (the neo-nazi-esque AfD (21%) and the new and much smaller naz-bol BSW). To the point that mobs appeared in front of homes of Ukrainian refugees, chanting for them to get out, and threatening to set fire to the buildings.

Similarly the weapon deliveries are hugely controversial.

There are those who recognize this war for what it is and support continued and growing weapon sales, donations and deliveries.

There are those who recognize that Russia did a bad, but surely just accidentally, and while some rifles and small-arms ammo is okay, it is more important to get back on good terms again with the peace-loving and unfairly maligned Russians (who defeated Hitler and brought prosperity to Eastern Europe etc.).

And then we have the third group, who actively wants "Peace Deal Yesterday" in order to "save Ukrainian lives from the CIA proxy war" or to stop supporting the "Kiyv Nazi regime." 

These three groups are roughly equally sized, but the latter tends to be the loudest and most aggressive, and is obviously also getting some ruble deals or help by bot farms. This is affecting politics - it does not dominate it. But it is affecting it. 

 

Edited January 8 by Carolus

[billbindc]

Galeotti on the slow squeeze working on Russia: 

 

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That is because Hollywood has likely warped your understanding of what SOF does.  It can be argued that the core strategic functions of SOF are sensor, signal, weapon and integration. In this context UKR SOF are signalling.  By removing a few Wagnerites from the gene pool in Sudan Ukraine is signalling that it can 1) project power internationally, and 2) will take this war international as well.  This sends a message to both Russia and the rest of the world.

The overall effect is that Russian forces are not safe anywhere and are all fair game.  This will give Russia pause as now its frontline is no longer Zaporizhya, it is wherever Russian military (or paramilitary) are standing. This projects enormous un-decision onto an opponent.

It is working because we are all talking about it.

I'm questioning the practical strategic use of these resources, as I'm doubting their usable operational or even tactical effects. I'm also curious about the nature and objective of Ukraines presence in Africa. 

I assumed signaling, but I'm not convinced it has any actual long term effect locally or internationally. If The UKR are saying, Look Out Russkies, We'll Get You Anywhere!, well so far they have failed to give Russia pause, and and I don't see how Russia would really care. This isn't projecting power, it's useless pinpricks on a boars skin. Russia does not give two flying rats arses about some dead mercs in Africa, There's always more coming. Brave effort, but feels useless. 

Russia has not paused anything in Africa, their effort is inordinately larger than anything the ZSU can do and is steadily growing each year. It's functionally self-funded at this point by control of local resources, which UKR does not have.

If there is a UKR signal its pretty much overwhelmed by Russian noise and has zero chance .. So why bother? 

Or, heres what you seem to think I'm saying:

DURRRR WHY UKR NOT RAMBO-ING STUPID WAGNERITES?! MORE BOOM BOOM NOW! ME WANTY HEADSHOT VIDEOS! 

But I'm not. 

I'm not warped by Hollywood. I don't deserve that condescension. It's often your go-to knee-jerk attitude and while often funny frankly it can also be indiscriminate and needlessly wearing.

Ironically, It makes me pause to post, because I don't want to be shown up as foolish, so I try to put a bit more thought into things - which is a good effect! But it seems your snottiness is a hammer and (almost) everyone's question is a nail. 

Yes I'm a civvy but I'm not stupid. Perhaps you can bite down on the snarkiness as your first response? Maybe I am being too sensitive. 

Edited January 8 by Kinophile

[omae2]

21 minutes ago, Carolus said:

I am not sure from which European country you are. I live in Germany, though I am half Polish and half Swedish. 

Here in Germany the rethoric against Ukrainian refugees was subdued only for the first few weeks and honestly, that was mostly because they were not Muslim or brown. 

But there is now widespread antipathy against Ukrainian refugees as well, perfectly covered with the two Russia-aligned parties (the neo-nazi-esque AfD (21%) and the new and much smaller naz-bol BSW). To the point that mobs appeared in front of homes of Ukrainian refugees, chanting for them to get out, and threatening to set fire to the buildings.

Similarly the weapon deliveries are hugely controversial.

There are those who recognize this war for what it is and support continued and growing weapon sales, donations and deliveries.

There are those who recognize that Russia did a bad, but surely just accidentally, and while some rifles and small-arms ammo is okay, it is more important to get back on good terms again with the peace-loving and unfairly maligned Russians (who defeated Hitler and brought prosperity to Eastern Europe etc.).

And then we have the third group, who actively wants "Peace Deal Yesterday" in order to "save Ukrainian lives from the CIA proxy war" or to stop supporting the "Kiyv Nazi regime." 

These three groups are roughly equally sized, but the latter tends to be the loudest and most aggressive, and is obviously also getting some ruble deals or help by bot farms. This is affecting politics - it does not dominate it. But it is affecting it. 

 

That must be some German thing cause not even here in Hungary anybody protest against the Ukrainian refugees. Even i have neighbours from Ukraine, they work, they behave. No one really care about them.

The rest is kinda the same. Except some minor things.

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Wagner is out of the real fight

No. PMC Wagner just changed owners and divided between several PMCs. Part of Wagners incrorporated to Rosgvariya as special purpose unit. But many of Wagnerites now under control of MoD still conduct own missions in Africa. Enlistment to PMC for "Africa travel" is continuing.

I don't know plans of Ukraine in Africa, but Zelenskiy told we have to pay more attacntion to this region, Ukraine for example already loing time ago had weapon supply partnership with Sudan (story of "Faina" freighter with tanks, captired by purates, if you remember)

Russian aggressive expansion into Africa forced France to withdraw from countries (CAR, Burkina-Faco, Mal) with strategical resources - uran, gold, etc. China is also rapidly expanding own influence on this continent, when European countries weaken under bla-bla-bla of "colonizers legacy". So, who knows, if EU afraid to fight and just avoid this, maybe Ukraine will di this work...

Edited January 8 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No. PMC Wagner just changed owners and divided between several PMCs. Part of Wagners incrorporated to Rosgvariya as special purpose unit. 

Isn't that the description of a unit being eating by its compatriots?

Wagner personnel are still fighting, but Wagner has no MBTs, TOS 1 or aircraft, etc, and will never get them back (although, in Russia you never know! ).

Wagner still exists as an organization but its not running any operations; its units are piecemeal across the front ands its not responsible for any one sector. 

It is now a tactical level effect, as directed by the RUS Army and has no operational agency in Ukraine. 

To actually have an effect in Africa Ukraine would need to drastically ramp up its involvement, at an inevitable cost to the homeland war. 

Edited January 8 by Kinophile

[cesmonkey]

An impressive tank kill:

 

[Seedorf81]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

(..)

A perfect, infallible non-human (but human adjacent) ruler with supreme power and awareness ruling masses who are essentially enslaved by adoration for the ruler and have surrendered all agency while basking in His glory.

(..)

 

 

A bit confused. Are you hinting at "Battlefront Steve" and us, the forummembers?

 

(I'm sorry, couldn't resist.)

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

To actually have an effect in Africa Ukraine would need to drastically ramp up its involvement, at an inevitable cost to the homeland war. 

Maybe Budanov realizes first step on some foggy strategic plans of Ukraine in Africa, which will be more actual after the war. I think, after the war we will have many people, who already can't find themselves in civil life and Ukriane also can establish some PMC to eliminate Wagner scum in Africa

Edited January 8 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

I'm questioning the practical strategic use of these resources, as I'm doubting their usable operational or even tactical effects. I'm also curious about the nature and objective of Ukraines presence in Africa. 

I assumed signaling, but I'm not convinced it has any actual long term effect locally or internationally. If The UKR are saying, Look Out Russkies, We'll Get You Anywhere!, well so far they have failed to give Russia pause, and and I don't see how Russia would really care. This isn't projecting power, it's useless pinpricks on a boars skin. Russia does not give two flying rats arses about some dead mercs in Africa, There's always more coming. Brave effort, but feels useless. 

Russia has not paused anything in Africa, their effort is inordinately larger than anything the ZSU can do and is steadily growing each year. It's functionally self-funded at this point by control of local resources, which UKR does not have.

If there is a UKR signal its pretty much overwhelmed by Russian noise and has zero chance .. So why bother? 

Or, heres what you seem to think I'm saying:

DURRRR WHY UKR NOT RAMBO-ING STUPID WAGNERITES?! MORE BOOM BOOM NOW! ME WANTY HEADSHOT VIDEOS! 

But I'm not. 

I'm not warped by Hollywood. I don't deserve that condescension. It's often your go-to knee-jerk attitude and while often funny frankly it can also be indiscriminate and needlessly wearing.

Ironically, It makes me pause to post, because I don't want to be shown up as foolish, so I try to put a bit more thought into things - which is a good effect! But it seems your snottiness is a hammer and (almost) everyone's question is a nail. 

Yes I'm a civvy but I'm not stupid. Perhaps you can bite down on the snarkiness as your first response?

Wow, you got that from a single "Hollywood" comment?  It must be January.  Seriously, I must be showing my age because this sort of back and forth is positively gentle where I come from.  Whole lotta internal translation occurring here.

So this is not about tactical or operational effects it is about strategic ones.  Russia might not give a "rats-***" about Wagner in Africa - and I would challenge that, somewhat - but we definitely do.  The fact we are hearing about it signals to allies and partners that Ukraine is thinking globally and can reach same.  This combined with deep strikes into Russia is basically doing what Churchill invented modern SOF for - to undecide the current stasis of this war.  It is opening another conceptual front.

As for Russia "not caring" - good god that list appears endless!  Russia doesn't care about Wagner.  It does not care about mobiks and brutal losses on the battlefield.  It does not care about Sevastopol.  It does not care about losing almost all of its frontline warfighting capability in the last two years.  Now it does not care that a regional minor power is conducting deep strikes in Sudan, and may very well be jumping into the special warfare game - with US assistance of course.

I for one am not really confident about what Russia "does not care about".  If I were on the other side of this, UKR SOF teaming up with 5-Eyes SOF to make my life miserable in Africa might just cause a slight eyebrow raising.

I have all the time in the world for civilians who want to either learn or contribute.  If someone starts Dunning-Kruger flexing I will perhaps be a bit more pointed in my responses.  As far as UKR SOF, they are doing pretty much what they are designed to do.  We are likely seeing the tip of what is actually happening under the waterline - for example, UKR SOF did not simply get off the plane and wander around Sudan until they saw someone who looked vaguely Russian.  They got intel and targeting data from allies - or god forbid their own architecture (that one alone should scare the bejeezes out of Russia).  Considering that UKR SOF is inter-linked with US SOF right now, I am pretty sure your inability to fully "see" what they are up to is by design.  The thing about using SOF to signal is that one can tightly dial in the intended audience and in this case I am guess that it is not all about you. 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Here in Germany the rethoric against Ukrainian refugees was subdued only for the first few weeks and honestly, that was mostly because they were not Muslim or brown. 

Is this anecdotal evidence? Because as far as I am informed this is not true. There is a lot of concern and discussions about how the costs are distributed but I know of no widespread resentments towards Ukrainian refugees. Sure, haters gonna hate, AfD has gathered more voters and there are some parts of Eastern Germany that are simply not safe for any foreigner (all bad and admitedly getting worse). But as I said earlier: 20% AfD means 80% non-AfD (and BSW isn't even a real party, yet). For all the other parties and the majority of Germans I am not aware of widespread or structural tendencies against Ukrainian refugees.

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Similarly the weapon deliveries are hugely controversial.

There are those who recognize this war for what it is and support continued and growing weapon sales, donations and deliveries.

There are those who recognize that Russia did a bad, but surely just accidentally, and while some rifles and small-arms ammo is okay, it is more important to get back on good terms again with the peace-loving and unfairly maligned Russians (who defeated Hitler and brought prosperity to Eastern Europe etc.).

And then we have the third group, who actively wants "Peace Deal Yesterday" in order to "save Ukrainian lives from the CIA proxy war" or to stop supporting the "Kiyv Nazi regime." 

I really don't like it when people accuse everyone who isn't entirely on board with total war against Russia as being pro-Russian. There are a lot of people who are various degrees of pacifists or who just think that a diplomatic solution should have precedence over war. You can't really argue that by supplying Ukraine with weapons we are in fact prolonging the war. And there are people who think that war, for whatever cause, is bad, ergo supplying weapons is bad. You or I may have a different opinion but that just doesn't make everyone who doesn't share that opinion a pro Russian goon.

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

These three groups are roughly equally sized

Do you have a source for that?

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

But it is affecting it. 

As it should in a democracy.

Edited January 8 by Butschi

[Kinophile]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Wow, you got that from a single "Hollywood" comment?  It must be January.  Seriously, I must be showing my age because this sort of back and forth is positively gentle where I come from.  Whole lotta internal translation occurring here.

So this is not about tactical or operational effects it is about strategic ones.  Russia might not give a "rats-***" about Wagner in Africa - and I would challenge that, somewhat - but we definitely do.  The fact we are hearing about it signals to allies and partners that Ukraine is thinking globally and can reach same.  This combined with deep strikes into Russia is basically doing what Churchill invented modern SOF for - to undecide the current stasis of this war.  It is opening another conceptual front.

As for Russia "not caring" - good god that list appears endless!  Russia doesn't care about Wagner.  It does not care about mobiks and brutal losses on the battlefield.  It does not care about Sevastopol.  It does not care about losing almost all of its frontline warfighting capability in the last two years.  Now it does not care that a regional minor power is conducting deep strikes in Sudan, and may very well be jumping into the special warfare game - with US assistance of course.

I for one am not really confident about what Russia "does not care about".  If I were on the other side of this, UKR SOF teaming up with 5-Eyes SOF to make my life miserable in Africa might just cause a slight eyebrow raising.

I have all the time in the world for civilians who want to either learn or contribute.  If someone starts Dunning-Kruger flexing I will perhaps be a bit more pointed in my responses.  As far as UKR SOF, they are doing pretty much what they are designed to do.  We are likely seeing the tip of what is actually happening under the waterline - for example, UKR SOF did not simply get off the plane and wander around Sudan until they saw someone who looked vaguely Russian.  They got intel and targeting data from allies - or god forbid their own architecture (that one alone should scare the bejeezes out of Russia).  Considering that UKR SOF is inter-linked with US SOF right now, I am pretty sure your inability to fully "see" what they are up to is by design.  The thing about using SOF to signal is that one can tightly dial in the intended audience and in this case I am guess that it is not all about you. 

To clarify Russia caring - I mean that whatever Ukraine does in Africa, the Russian operation can (comparatively)  easily absorb, replace and respond to. If Ukraine does become distracting it won't be hard for the Ivans to focus and overwhelm them, or at the very least buffer them back. UKR would need a lot of US support to counter that, but US domestic politics has no taste for getting involved in Africa. 

The Africa theatre is perhaps an inverse of the European one - its financially existential for the Russian elite (as a fresh source of money/power)  but for Ukraine its an opportunistic expeditionary AO. The signalling to Western partners (as opposed to actually giving Russia pause - to and what would that look like? ) definitely rings true, with some caveats. 

Ref Hollywood, sure I'm probably jumping the gun a bit. Plus no breakfast yet!  Anytime I post here its fundamentally out of curiosity - how accurate is this? How well do I understand that,  if at all? What is happening here Etc. Possibly it was Pre-emptive push back to avoid my delicates getting whapped.... 

 

Edited January 8 by Kinophile

[Seedorf81]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

To clarify Russia caring - I mean that whatever Ukraine does in Africa, the Russian operation can easily absorb, replace and respond to. If Ukraine does become distracting it won't be hard for the Ivans to focus and overwhelm them, or at the very least buffer them back. UKR would need a lot of US support to counter that, but US domestic politics has no taste for getting involved in Africa. 

The Africa theatre is perhaps an inverse of the European one - its financially existential for the Russian elite (as a fresh source of money/power)  but for Ukraine its an opportunistic expeditionary AO. The signalling to Western partners (as opposed to actually giving Russia pause - to and what would that look like? ) definitely rings true, with some caveats. 

Ref Hollywood, sure I'm probably jumping the gun a bit. Plus no breakfast yet!  Anytime I post here its fundamentally out of curiosity - how accurate is this? How well do I understand that,  if at all? What is happening here Etc. Possibly it was Pre-emptive push back to avoid my delicates getting whapped.... 

 

Yes, the Russians can "easily absorb, replace and respond to" whatever Ukrainian does in Africa.

But in pre D-Day WW2 The Germans "could easily absorb, replace and respond to" whatever the British commando's did on occupied European soil. Lofoten, Dieppe, recon-raids, St. Nazaire, Lorient. (Oh, look at that! Wikipedia even has this, wow):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Commando_raids_on_the_Atlantic_Wall

Do you think those raids were useless, too? If not, where is the difference between those and the Ukranian Africa-actions?

Edited January 8 by Seedorf81

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

To clarify Russia caring - I mean that whatever Ukraine does in Africa, the Russian operation can (comparatively)  easily absorb, replace and respond to. If Ukraine does become distracting it won't be hard for the Ivans to focus and overwhelm them, or at the very least buffer them back. UKR would need a lot of US support to counter that, but US domestic politics has no taste for getting involved in Africa. 

The Africa theatre is perhaps an inverse of the European one - its financially existential for the Russian elite (as a fresh source of money/power)  but for Ukraine its an opportunistic expeditionary AO. The signalling to Western partners (as opposed to actually giving Russia pause - to and what would that look like? ) definitely rings true, with some caveats. 

See, I think we just answered the question right there.  So if UKR SOF - along with a little help from USSOCOM - starts messing around in the backfield it could be signaling a few of those elites or putting pressure on them.  The problem with SOF operations is that they are both macro and micro at the same time.  They aim to deliver strategic effect but very often indirectly (or inductively) by targeting small.  Kill OBL - had zero to do with AQ ability to wage a terror campaign, but it sent a message to both AQ, the Arab world (and Pakistan) and the western public.

These things tend to have connections and nexus (nexi?) that are hard to see unless one is in the actual box.  This looks like an executive action, which is wrapped way up into the intelligence communities.  UKR SOF clipping Wagner in Africa is not about Africa in the least.  I suspect it is about power plays and signaling in the Russian backfield.

Re: Hollywood - it really was not a personal shot.  Hollywood's promotion of SOF has been going on for decades - and often supported by the US military.  It promotes stereo types and global power projection (myths and realities) as an extension of a US narrative - both internal and external.  The problem with it is that most SOF actions look nothing like what Hollywood portrays.  Some do, but they are less common than people know.  Most SOF actions are done in the background as strategic shaping or communication...and that is what this looks like to me.

[poesel]

40 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I this anecdotal evidence? Because as far as I am informed this is not true.

Thanks Butschi for writing that, so I don't have to write it.

There has been some slight grumbling about Ukrainians having it a bit too easy wrt to other refugees, but this will be normalized. Apart from that, there have been no noteworthy troubles.