How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

In the event of the fall of Ukraine, Russia will have hundreds of thousands of well-trained and combat-experienced fighters - former soldiers of the Ukrainian army.

So now you are doubling down and suggesting that "as soon as Ukraine loses this war it will gleefully turn on its former allies in the West and support a Russian invasion of the Baltics"?

Seriously...why are you still on this forum?

[Sojourner]

If there's going to be any West-bashing today, best to leave Britain out of it...

Britain announced urgent missile deliveries to Ukrainian air defense systems following Russia's massive missile strikes, reports Britain's Defense Minister Grant Shapps.

"The UK is moving rapidly to bolster Ukraine’s air defence, in the wake of Putin’s murderous air strikes," the statement reads.

According to him, hundreds of air defense missiles manufactured in Britain are being dispatched to provide Ukraine with everything necessary to protect against the barbaric bombings of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

"Putin is testing Ukraine’s defences and the West’s resolve - now is the time for the world to come together and redouble our efforts to get Ukraine what they need to win," the minister adds.

Britain sends air defense missiles to Ukraine post Russian attacks | RBC-Ukraine

 

 

[Zeleban]

36 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Because their sustainable military budget is maybe 1.5x the budget of the University of California.  Not the state of California, just the larger of the three state university systems.  

The Russian navy isn't doing particularly well against a country that has no navy.

The Russian army is stalled out with what it's currently holding against, as has been repeatedly pointed out, a country that was expected to last a week at most.  It's closing on 2 years, and they've pissed away the better part of 50 years of soviet production.

Russia has no tech industry and depends on China for any tech.  Russia is a tiny customer to China compared to the west.

The main thing that keeps Russia on the world stage is the leftover nukes from the USSR.  I don't think anybody really expects that Russia would use them unless directly attacked by an overwhelming force, but if Russia collapses in a chaotic way those nukes could get scattered to a lot of places that we would be a lot less happy to have them.

Russia needs to lose badly in Ukraine, but not collapse internally to the extent that nuclear materials get scattered around willy nilly.  The west needs to support Ukraine in winning for the same non-proliferation reasons that they want to avoid Russian collapse: we promised protection in return for giving up the legacy nukes.  Ukraine gained independence as the 3rd largest possessor of nuclear weapons on the planet and gave them up voluntarily.  If you still had them, none of this would be happening now, and every little state with nuclear aspirations is watching closely.  If we abandon you there will be a mad rush of nuclear proliferation among much less stable countries.

Your post raises even more questions than before. If everything is exactly as you described, then why is the West afraid of Russia? Why do more and more allies of the West not trust it and believe that it is better to rely on their own strengths than on the support of the West?

[Sojourner]

Unconfirmed, but hope it's true. Fighterbomber is apparently still silent about it.

Russian Tu-22M3 bomber reportedly downed - Feasibility and Ukraine's capability | RBC-Ukraine

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Zeleban said:

This is not true, at the moment Russia is keeping most of the world in fear. How can Russia be called a secondary state after this?

Oh ya, the US is shaking so hard in its boots that Congress is galvanized...wait a minute....no they are not.  We just spent a page or two on how Russia may 1) fall apart gracefully like a dying swan and land gently in the arms of China or 2) fall apart fast like a flaming swan and land in a smoking heap into the arms of China or 3) Explode all over the place and leave little nuclear swanling bits for us to deal with.

None of this is "Oh dear, Russia rising."  No, that would have happened if Russia had taken Ukraine in two weeks and stared us down across the border to Poland.  Then the argument would have been whether or not to support a Ukrainian insurgency - but according to you Ukrainian will is so weak there would have been no point.

Instead we got this sh#tshow.  Russia is still big enough and irrational enough to cause a lot of @sspain, particularly as a strategic spoiler.  However, an invasion of a NATO state is not a realistic scenario right now, perhaps in an alternate timeline.  Russia does not have either the economic nor military means to take on an opponent 10 times larger than itself.  Hell it could not take on an opponent 1/4 the size of itself.

I am really not sure what game you are trying to play here but it wont work.  We support Ukraine because it is the right thing to do and aligns with our larger interest.  If Ukraine totally falls apart as you continue to argue, then we will deal with it.  We dropped an Iron Curtain before, we can do it again.  We got Sweden and Finland out of the deal, and Russia is a broken sword for a while yet - even with turncoat Ukrainians you describe [note: after Bucha and the other horrors, I would bet a whole lot against Ukraine cozying up to Russia for about a century or more...if ever].

[Harmon Rabb]

23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So now you are doubling down and suggesting that "as soon as Ukraine loses this war it will gleefully turn on its former allies in the West and support a Russian invasion of the Baltics"?

Seriously...why are you still on this forum?

Not saying that I think Ukraine will fall but I think that if it did the sad reality is Russia would be able to find more Ukrainians willing to fight for them if they took the whole country even from places like Kyiv (I know not gonna happen). I think we have all heard stories of people from the occupied parts of Ukraine already being forced to fight.

Not sure how many. Even after this brutal war.

Don't think they would attack NATO. Most likely would have been used to occupy Ukraine.

During WW2, the Wehrmacht managed to get personnel from all sorts of countries that not that long ago were or still were actively fighting Germany in another brutal war in Europe.

Wehrmacht foreign volunteers and conscripts

Quote

Among the approximately one million foreign volunteers and conscripts who served in the Wehrmacht during World War II were ethnic Belgians, Czechs, Dutch, Finns, Danes, French, Hungarians, Norwegians, Poles,^[1] Portuguese, Swedes,^[2] Swiss along with people from Great Britain, Ireland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and the Balkans.^[3] At least 47,000 Spaniards served in the Blue Division.^[4]

 

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Your post raises even more questions than before. If everything is exactly as you described, then why is the West afraid of Russia? Why do more and more allies of the West not trust it and believe that it is better to rely on their own strengths than on the support of the West?

More tossing around a bunch of unsupported opinions as if they are fact.

Nobody in the West is afraid of Russia's conventional forces.  In fact, they are laughing at them.  Hard.  Sure, sure, the military industrial complex continues to make the case that the West needs ever more expensive weapons, but the arguments are mostly aimed at China and/or "not getting complacent" about Russian capabilities.

As I, and others, have said since this war started... the US on its own could wipe out Russia's entire navy within a very short space of time.  Not just the Black Sea Fleet, either.  It's airforce is a pitiful joke.  It would be put out of action within an even shorter period of time.  Thanks to massive losses in AD systems and Russia's thinning of Western facing systems to keep Ukraine's meager airforce bottled up, it won't take long for the US (again, on its own) to open up an air superiority section of sky and destroy anything on the ground it felt like any time of the day or night.

Now, the West does fear one thing... nuclear war.  That's it.  Everything other than that is "reluctance" rather than fear.  As in the West doesn't want to see its standard of living reduced.  The West doesn't want an endless and expensive war.  The West doesn't want lots of military casualties.  Etc.  Fear is not the same as reluctance.

Steve

[Zeleban]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Fear is not the same as reluctance.

Actually, the “reluctance” you described above is a consequence of fear. Exactly the same reluctance may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “reluctance”

[Haiduk]

Training range somewhere in Russia. Enlisted citizens of Somali, India and Syria

 

[Haiduk]

Training range somewhere in Russia. Enlisted citizens of Somali, India and Syria

 

[Haiduk]

Updated information of civilan losses for today's strikes: 30 killed, 160 wounded. 

Death tall in Kyiv reached 9 people - all they from that storage facility. According to some information it was not only storage, but workshop too. Military plant "Mayak" is located in that area

AT the day Russians launched several Kh-22 missiles. One of them hit outskirt of Smila town of Cherkasy oblast (homeland of my wife). Russians likely targeted railway bridge through small river Tiasmyn, but because of this missile isn't accurate, it hit eastern city suburb, destroying 10 private houses completely and damaging more than 40. Nine citizens were wounded. 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If this letter of BSF Command to Novocherkassk city admimnistration is true, it says 74 sailors were killed and 27 wounded (I suppose this is not only LLS "Novocherkassk" crew) after strike on the ship

 

Quite impressive casualties. There is a gossip flying around, coming from one of Russian TG's that captain was not on the ship but on shore spending night with local escort girl. If true, he should marry her for saving life.

36 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Unconfirmed, but hope it's true. Fighterbomber is apparently still silent about it.

Russian Tu-22M3 bomber reportedly downed - Feasibility and Ukraine's capability | RBC-Ukraine

Sadly, even propaganda UA channels like Noel treat it as fake news so far.

Perhaps crew forget to remove tire-cover from wings before starting engines?

[OBJ]

Apologies in advance, I just really want to try to wrap my head around everything being shared over the last couple days/weeks to understand how it all fits together. I am counting on forum members to counter in typical lively debate fashion, hopefully with credible external opinion pieces and data where it exists:

Military

1.       We seem to agree the war in Ukraine is presently at a military stalemate
2.       We agree at present there is no clear path to offensive parity, let alone primacy
3.       We are not sure what Russia’s military industrial output might be, but so far overwhelming it is not
4.       RA seems to be conducting local offensives to improve their geographic situation in the Donbas and East bank of Dnieper, suffering heavy losses
5.       Thanks to members actually ‘in theater,’ we get daily reports confirming the UA ability to hold ground defensively
6.       Crimea seems to be UA focus with raids and strikes in/on Crimea, airbases, AA systems, logistics centers, BSF HQ, BSF vessels, one strategic objective being to secure the western Black Sea for Ukrainian grain shipments/national revenue
7.       The RA operational objective and militarily significant results of last nights concentrated missile/drone attack are not clear, if significant likely will be in next weeks

Political/Social

8.       The Israeli/Hamas war has diluted Western focus on Ukraine
9.      We are split on Western 2024 political resolve to sustain Ukraine, optimists (me) believe timely 2024 support is coming, soon, pessimists are not so sure, implications of non-support to be discussed when relevant
10.   UA needs more manpower to support its strategy for prosecuting the war
11.   General consensus Putin is less secure in his role as Russian dictator, also consensus at present Putin’s status has no meaningful impact on Russian strategy in Ukraine
12. The purpose of Putin's cease fire proposal (NYTs) ceding him all RA occupied terrain is not clear 
13.   We seem to agree UA missile and drone violations of NATO member boundaries will not provoke an article 5 response
14.   We also agree NATO has no desire or intent to directly engage Russia unless first attacked by same
15.   Nobody thinks the West is afraid of Putin/Russia, just conscious of their nuclear arsenal

..and so discuss. What about this is an incomplete or incorrect reading of this forum's generally accepted opinions?

[sburke]

16 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Actually, the “reluctance” you described above is a consequence of fear. Exactly the same reluctance may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “reluctance”

damn it, I just hurt myself rolling my eyes again!

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Training range somewhere in Russia. Enlisted citizens of Somali, India and Syria

 

I think these guys are the ones Zeleban thinks are about to invade Estonia.

[Haiduk]

Probably upgraded Kh-101 missile, launching flares in potential dangerous areas

 

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Sadly, even propaganda UA channels like Noel treat it as fake news so far.

Our twitters, wich usually report first about such sensations now keep silence about this.  

[sburke]

Meanwhile in Taiwan

China Confronts a New Political Reality in Taiwan: No Friends (msn.com)

The shifting political winds in Taiwan represent a cold new reality for Communist Party leaders in China. After Beijing crushed dissent in Hong Kong, there is little appetite in Taiwan for an arrangement in which China would peacefully assume political control of the island in exchange for a high degree of autonomy.

The proportion of people in Taiwan who identify primarily as Chinese has plummeted to below 3%, prompting even the party that had most ardently pursued peaceful political union with Beijing to do everything it can to shed its “pro-Beijing” label.

“Young people in Taiwan neither feel they are Chinese, nor do they have affection for anything Chinese—quite the contrary,” said Andrew Hsia, deputy head of the KMT.

While past Taiwan elections have turned on the question of whether to move toward or away from eventual unification with China, the candidates in January’s contest all agree that Taiwan’s only choice with China now is to play for time. The debate is over how.

In an interview in the southern city of Kaohsiung, home to Taiwan’s largest naval base, the KMT’s Hou accused the DPP of underplaying the deterioration of cross-strait ties and the risk of war.

“It wasn’t until the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza that people started paying attention,” he said. “Taiwan needs to prepare—quickly.

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Actually, the “reluctance” you described above is a consequence of fear. Exactly the same reluctance may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “reluctance”

Could be a language barrier, but no... reluctance and fear are not interchangeable.  I am reluctant to get off the couch right now and get some food.  Not because I fear food or getting up or the walk into the kitchen.  I just don't feel like it because I'm comfortable.  If I eventually have to get my ass up and get some food it won't be because I suddenly became brave, it's because I finally couldn't put it off any longer.

Plus, you are doing a typical Russian "whataboutism".  The argument made was that Russia is militarily a joke.  The West doesn't fear Russia's conventional forces.  So no, there won't be Russians marching into NATO countries *EVER*.  Russia is physically incapable of doing so.  Period.

Steve

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Could be a language barrier, but no... reluctance and fear are not interchangeable.  I am reluctant to get off the couch right now and get some food.  Not because I fear food or getting up or the walk into the kitchen.  I just don't feel like it because I'm comfortable. 

OK

Exactly the same "uncomfortable" may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “uncomfortable”

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

OK

Exactly the same "uncomfortable" may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “uncomfortable”

Got some sources to cite for this assertion?

There's just about nobody that thinks NATO or the US should start bombing Russia.  Not even the most pro-Ukrainian of us, like me, think this is a good idea.  Now, if Russia decides it is a good idea by attacking the US, there will be retaliation.  Maybe even if Trump is President.  We saw the US military f-up Wagner in Syria, which is likely why Trump drew down US forces there.

Steve

[OBJ]

19 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

OK

Exactly the same "uncomfortable" may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “uncomfortable”

I think you need to be clear, are you postulating a conventional attack on other countries, like the unprovoked RA attack on Ukraine? There did not seem to be a lot of 'uncomfortableness' about supporting Ukraine in defense of it's sovereign territory. Over the course of the conflict the concern over Russian nuclear escalation seems to be receding, not growing, as evidenced by the West supplying systems with increasing offensive capabilities.

Edited December 29, 2023 by OBJ

[OBJ]

21 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

OK

Exactly the same "uncomfortable" may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “uncomfortable”

The concern I am aware of is some US Allies worry a US president would hesitate to engage in a regional conflict if it could result in a nuclear attack on the US, hence S. Korean, even Japanese, recent interest in having their own deterrent nuclear forces.

I am not aware of any US allies being uncomfortable the US will directly engage in their defense in a conventional war if attacked with conventional means.

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

OK

Exactly the same "uncomfortable" may arise after Russia attacks other countries. This is why more and more countries are no longer believing in the United States. It is precisely because of this “uncomfortable”

We are all over the map here.  So here is what I am hearing from you over the last few weeks:

- Ukraine is doomed.  It will lose this war and fall into a Russian orbit - with verve to fight for mother Russia apparently.  No matter what anyone does or how much support…this is a done deal.

- The West is a collection of cowards and appeasers because we are scared of Russia.  The fact that our partner (Ukraine) is so weak that a stiff wind will knock it over somehow plays into this…?  [gotta be honest this part makes no sense]

- Our “reluctance” to support Ukraine is a combination of fear and Ukrainian pre-programmed failure.  And this is a message to the world to stop trusting the West.

- This war has not affected Russia in any way, except making it stronger.  Sanctions are making Russia richer.  A brutal attritional war is making its military stronger.  And politically Russia is a nation of mindless drones who will follow Putin anywhere…forever.

- Russia will come out of this war, and inevitable Ukrainian loss, able to quickly invade Baltic or other NATO states.  We being the terrified western cowards who failed to support Ukraine - despite its clear destiny to fail - will dither and let NATO collapse by ignoring an Article 5 declaration.

And you have demonstrated a history of selectively picking “evidence” to support these positions even though you have also been caught out as either skewing evidence or outright pushing disinformation.  I think that covers it?

Ok, well…noted.  We will file that one away and come back to it.

 

[OBJ]

I have overcome my uncomfortableness with getting off the couch and am going to get some food.