How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct.  Even if a Russian missile took out a Polish school bus loaded with children there would not likely be an Article 5 right away.  There would be unilateral diplomacy with Russia first.  Publicly Russia would likely deny everything, claiming it was Ukraine or space aliens, but in privately they might try to find some way to "get off the hook".  If it didn't, or the public outrage was too massive, then and only then would Poland privately assess Article 4 and 5 support within NATO before asking for it formally.  Then we'd see if Hungary would stay in the Alliance, because if it was the only holdout for action then I think things would get very interesting politically for Orban.

Regardless, I doubt there would be any direct military action taken right away.  Blockades and aggressive patrolling yes, strikes no.  Russia would then be on notice that if the next time it f'd up there'd be an immediate response, which would mean Russia likely taking much better care to not violate NATO territory again.

And this is assuming a pretty much "perfect" circumstance of significant loss of life and presence of evidence.  Anything short of that and the above process would stop before a formal request for Articles 4 or 5.

Steve

There was a lot of discussion last year about essentially pushing NATO's air defense Umbrella forward into western Ukraine. I still think that makes a ton of sense. Putin is trying to convince the Russian people we are quitting, that is the time to double down.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

 

And NATO's reaction is... ?

I hope you understand that with these actions Russia is testing NATO's resolve. This will be important for deciding on aggression against some NATO countries. Nobody seems to have noticed the recent crash of the Shahed drone on Romanian territory, and now we have a violation of Polish airspace. I wonder why Polish air defense didn’t shoot down this missile? Perhaps they were afraid of offending Russia by shooting down one of its missiles

Oh yes, the west is soooo weak and trembly in the face of mighty Russia.  Is it West Bashing Day again already?

[Beleg85]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Correct.  Even if a Russian missile took out a Polish school bus loaded with children there would not likely be an Article 5 right away.  There would be unilateral diplomacy with Russia first.  Publicly Russia would likely deny everything, claiming it was Ukraine or space aliens, but in privately they might try to find some way to "get off the hook".  If it didn't, or the public outrage was too massive, then and only then would Poland privately assess Article 4 and 5 support within NATO before asking for it formally.  Then we'd see if Hungary would stay in the Alliance, because if it was the only holdout for action then I think things would get very interesting politically for Orban.

What so many of our Ukrainian neighbours fail to understand is that any retaliatory decisions vs. Russia are made on NATO level, after consulting with core allies; and I mean below Article 5-grade stuff. The same is about Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, you name it. Perhaps Ukraine wasn't simply in any alliance post-89 and have problems getting how defensive teamwork look. But it's tiring to explain it time and again.

That  being said, perhaps NATO will take some retaliatory measures. We will see.

Just now, Zeleban said:

I hope you understand that with these actions Russia is testing NATO's resolve. This will be important for deciding on aggression against some NATO countries. Nobody seems to have noticed the recent crash of the Shahed drone on Romanian territory, and now we have a violation of Polish airspace. I wonder why Polish air defense didn’t shoot down this missile? Perhaps they were afraid of offending Russia by shooting down one of its missiles

Bro, take some medicines or something. Or better- read how actual defensive layers work. There was no battery in sight, out AA are in shambles till circa 2035, and even then they will be used only to defend core areas, not stripes of woods along border.

[The_Capt]

Just now, dan/california said:

There was a lot of discussion last year about essentially pushing NATO's air defense Umbrella forward into western Ukraine. I still think that makes a ton of sense. Putin is trying to convince the Russian people we are quitting, that is the time to double down.

This.  Article 5 does not immediately mean WW3, but it is a hefty escalation.  Poland might not even declare it but NATO would be well within its right to extend the AD umbrella to match the ADIZ, which could extend out to Kyiv.  This would essentially become a no-fly zone over western Ukraine.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Greaaat.  All I really wanted for Xmas was an Article 5 escalation….

Two Shakheds fell down so far in Romania, and no reaction. I not say about mysterious loss of Romanian MiG-21 over the seashore and rescue helicopter, searching its pilot at the beginning of war - there were rumors both were shot down by Russian ships or fighters

[Zeleban]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

The same is about Estonia, Lithuania, Finland, Romania, you name it.

How long will it take Russian mechanized columns to cross the territory of Estonia? How long will it take for NATO “team players” to consult in the event of Russian aggression?

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Bro, take some medicines or something.

I feel great, by the way I'm not your brother

[billbindc]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh yes, the west is soooo weak and trembly in the face of mighty Russia.  Is it West Bashing Day again already?

And with a big fat maraschino cherry of 'resolve' fallacy on top! Happy Bashing Day!

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Zeleban said:

How long will it take Russian mechanized columns to cross the territory of Estonia? How long will it take for NATO “team players” to consult in the event of Russian aggression?

I feel great, by the way I'm not your brother

You know I cannot tell what you are on about lately.  I mean it is likely one of three things:

- War fatigue.  Despair and defeatism based on a long (ish) war and the setback of last summer.

- Some sort of weird goading ploy to make us all go "hey, we are no cowards...Imma gonna write my congressman!"

- Or a long lead Russian propaganda play to convince the war is unwinnable to make us all go "hey, this is a waste of time and money...Imma gonna write my congressman!" 

To answer your question above - based on how we saw invasion of Ukraine go down, those Russian columns will likely be stopped cold by local forces while NATO sorts itself out.  The RA can barely string together a platoon attack let alone Div level assaults at this point.  A push into Estonia would look like last years May Day parade.  The immediate response would be NATO airpower which at this point I am not even sure the RA could deny based on 1) it loses and 2) it is already committed to another war in Ukraine.

The idea that Russia has a 2-war military at this point in time is laughable.

[Zeleban]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Or better- read how actual defensive layers work. There was no battery in sight, out AA are in shambles till circa 2035, and even then they will be used only to defend core areas, not stripes of woods along border.

As I understand it, the subsequent hasty bringing of Poland’s air defense to full combat readiness is the implementation of the work of “actual defensive layers”

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am not that sure tbf.

1. We don't know what military installations were targeted and hit- we will probably not know it for a long time as AFU keeps things in secret. There are rumours at least some airfields were hit (Starokonstantinov?).

2. Putin shows his resiliance and steadiness in face of global pressure. It didn't work for him 1,5 year ago when states were still in shock/anger, now it can bear some fruits.

3. This attack was very well planned and coordinated, mixing different types of missiles, working on various angles with defined targets and SEAD tasks.

4. It seems Kindzalhs, Ch-22, Iskanders and modified S-400 did mostly hit their marks, whatever they were:

https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1740689493953310921

5. Interesting snippet- it now seems Russian rocket, probably ch-101/102 did flew through NATO airspace for several minutes, penetrated for some 40kms and turned back into Ukrainian sky. Could be accident, but since it turned its back very fast (<3 mins, beyond decision loop) more people claim it was purposfull  testing of our defences and perhaps even marking new avenue for muscovite rockets hitting UA. Especially in connections with last "odd" GPS signal interference in PL several days ago (there were discussions it could be test of new radar or NATO jamming devices) :

https://www.dniprotoday.com/en/news/serious-gps-signal-interference-over-poland-no-one-knows-whats-going-on-1106

6. Are we sure we have broadly accurate data as to Russian missile stock that has left?

Romanians have it much more often. And it didn't landed this time.

Do we think Russia can keep this up? 

For how long? 

Of course there was damage but there's been little evidence of well thought out military strategy in Russian missile offensives so far and lots of evidence that Putin is engaging in "See Ma? Top of the world!" political posturing. Let's circle back in a week and then a month and see what has happened in the meantime. I would suggest that this phase will be a memory by then. 

[Eddy]

36 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Are we sure we have broadly accurate data as to Russian missile stock that has left?

We don't have any actual data on Russian missile stocks. But we can attempt to deduce from how often or not missiles are being used. So far this winter, including last night, the numbers are way down on last year. Therefore it could be they have less.

It also could be they are stockpiling them for a future campaign. Or it could be last night was the start of a missile campaign. 

If there are no further missile attacks for 2 months does that mean their stocks are low. Not definitely but it would reinforce the impression. (Impression is the wrong word but I can't think of a better one)

[Zeleban]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The RA can barely string together a platoon attack let alone Div level assaults at this point. 

Only against an enemy ready for defense (including morally) and entrenched.

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

To answer your question above - based on how we saw invasion of Ukraine go down, those Russian columns will likely be stopped cold by local forces while NATO sorts itself out

Let me remind you that the depth of penetration of mechanized columns deep into Ukraine at the beginning of the war amounted to tens of kilometers per day (in areas not ready for defense). 

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The immediate response would be NATO airpower

But what about working in a team, negotiations among alliance members, etc.?

 

And by the way, no one is saying that Russia needs to fight a war on two fronts. This can be implemented immediately after the defeat of Ukraine

Edited December 29, 2023 by Zeleban

[OBJ]

6 hours ago, Grossman said:

3 views on the Ukraine War 2024

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67760067

Thanks @Grossman

At least among these three, no one sees a knockout blow coming from either side in 2024.

If true, the thing I worry about more than anything else is eroding western will to supply Ukraine, leading to negotiations that leave Putin with what he's taken.  Whether the West, particularly the EU, have the moral fortitude to fast track Ukraine into NATO and the EU after that looks to me like the $64k question. That's the only way I see to keep Putin from resuming his aggression after a western gift of time to rebuild and get his offensive right a second time, quite possibly in the context of other world crisis the West will be focused on then.
Being an amateur prognosticator striving to be realistic, I realize I am much more likely to be wrong than right. In this case I hope I am wrong and being too negative. 

My summary:

1. Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King's College London - The war will drag on through 2024 with the only likely outcome a negotiated settlement.
2. Michael Clarke, former director general of the Royal United Services Institute - Industrial-age warfare is a struggle between societies. What happens on the battlefield becomes ultimately only the symptom of that struggle. 
The military course of this war in 2024 will be determined in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Brussels, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang more than in Avdiivka, Tokmak, Kramatorsk or any of the devastated battlefields along the frontlines.
3. Ben Hodges, former commanding general, United States Army Europe - I do, however, anticipate that early in the new year the US will rediscover its strategic backbone and pass the aid package that was delayed in Congress in December.
The most strategically important part of Ukraine that remains occupied by Russia is Crimea, which is what we call the "decisive terrain".
War is a test of will, and a test of logistics. The Russian logistics system is fragile and under continuous pressure from Ukraine.

[Bearstronaut]

10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

But what about working in a team, negotiations among alliance members, etc.?

 

 

There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.

[Zeleban]

1 minute ago, Bearstronaut said:

There's a pretty big difference between a combined arms assault into Estonia and an errant missile crossing into Polish airspace my dude.

Yes, but there are also common features in these events - the lack of clear and decisive actions to ensure the security of one’s borders, both air and ground

[OBJ]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh yes, the west is soooo weak and trembly in the face of mighty Russia.  Is it West Bashing Day again already?

I don't think it's West bashing day. But I do think we all need to acknowledge:
1. NATO isn't ready to fight and doesn't want to fight until it's ready. Reading anything about the current state of the Bundeswehr is just very depressing.
2. WWII, US General Marshal, something like, 'Roosevelt taught us (US military leadership) a modern day democracy cannot fight a 30 years war,' so keeping a democracy focused on the best way to avoid getting directly engaged is to support those that are engaged, especially in a multi-threat environment, is hard.

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

As I understand it, the subsequent hasty bringing of Poland’s air defense to full combat readiness is the implementation of the work of “actual defensive layers”

What do you mean? You realize that even large cities are not protected in any way, right? Rzeszów airport, one or two radar stations, maybe some 2-3 additional militay areas. That would be it- AA defence was sadly neglected by all previous governments and can't be builded within a year. There was discussion that Patriot battery sationed along the border could potentially cover this Russian missile, but it ended its tour of duty some time ago and came back to Germany. Russians naturally knew it. So there is no mythical, impenetrable "bubble" or "shield" against missiles; its not science fiction. Anti-rocket defences, not here nor even in Kyiv, are not even like Swiss cheese- they are small areas of most probable  avenues, sitting across relatively small, VIP targets. Village near Hrubieszów is not one of them.

OK, I won't get involved in another pointless complain-fest. NATO takes decisions of any higher magnitude collectively, like it or not. Perhaps there will be some response, perhaps even in different field like cyberwarfare, but you can be sure it won't come within hours. We will see.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Beleg85

[Eddy]

I miss when we used to take the time to have individual country bashing days. This latest 'West Bashing Day' trend is just slapdash.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, OBJ said:

I don't think it's West bashing day. But I do think we all need to acknowledge:
1. NATO isn't ready to fight and doesn't want to fight until it's ready. Reading anything about the current state of the Bundeswehr is just very depressing.

NATO is actually quite ready to fight to the degree it is necessary to defend itself.  The US could do this for all of NATO on its own largely because Russia has lost so much capacity and progressively stripped it's defenses along the Ukraine front.  That and it's pretty clear Russian tech has not trumped NATO's readily available weaponry.  The BW doesn't need to do anything but provide ground based logistics, which it is capable of doing.

The main issue is not wanting to fight.  That is political, not military.

2 minutes ago, OBJ said:

2. WWII, US General Marshal, something like, 'Roosevelt taught us (US military leadership) a modern day democracy cannot fight a 30 years war,' so keeping a democracy focused on the best way to avoid getting directly engaged is to support those that are engaged, especially in a multi-threat environment, is hard.

Yup.  Which is why many historians think the dumbest thing Hitler ever did was declare war on the US.  The population was predisposed to responding to Pearl Harbor by going to war with Japan only.  Obviously Americans' opinion changed when Hitler declared war.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

What do you mean? You realize that even large cities are not protected in any way, right? Rzeszów airport, one or two radar stations, maybe some 2-3 additional militay areas. That would be it- AA defence was sadly neglected by all previous governments and can't be builded within a year. There was discussion that Patriot battery sationed along the border could potentially cover this Russian missile, but it ended its tour of duty some time ago and came back to Germany. Russians naturally knew it. So there is no mythical, impenetrable "bubble" or "shield" against missiles; its not science fiction.

OK, I won't get involved in another pointless complain-fest. NATO takes decisions of any higher magnitude collectively, like it or not. Perhaps there will be some response, perhaps even in different field like cyberwarfare, but you can be sure it won't come within hours. We will see.

Of course Poland COULD do something unilaterally.  However, if it did and Russia retaliated there could be problems with Articles 4 and/or 5.  Theoretically the membership could say that Poland brought it on itself and refuse to vote in favor of either Article.  Which is why Poland would be very ill advised to do anything unilateral with the explicit approval of NATO's members.  Or simply do nothing until everybody agrees action is required.

Steve

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Only against an enemy ready for defense (including morally) and entrenched.

Let me remind you that the depth of penetration of mechanized columns deep into Ukraine at the beginning of the war amounted to tens of kilometers per day (in areas not ready for defense). 

But what about working in a team, negotiations among alliance members, etc.?

 

And by the way, no one is saying that Russia needs to fight a war on two fronts. This can be implemented immediately after the defeat of Ukraine

And let me remind you that the Russian Army was nowhere near ready to sustain those axis and ground to a halt under their own weight.  That overextension resulted in 3 operational collapses that historians will be writing about for the rest of the century.

I am really not sure what you are going on about "teamwork and negotiations".  I am pretty sure an invasion into Estonia and Latvia, where we currently have NATO Brigades stationed is going to result in a pretty damned quick spool up of existing plans - they have floors in SHAPE plotting this stuff out.

Ah, so the Russian Army which is roughly 300k mauled and whose ready force has been shattered over the last 2 years (as cited by most mainstream analysis) is going to "win in Ukraine" and then pivot to a NATO street fight in the Baltics...with what exactly...horses?

Russia will need a decade at least to rebuild what it had on 01 Jan 22, assuming it can even do it under enduring sanctions.  So you are pushing disinformation about Russian superiority, western inferiority and Ukrainian impending defeat...with friends like these....

[Beleg85]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of course Poland COULD do something unilaterally.  However, if it did and Russia retaliated there could be problems with Articles 4 and/or 5.  Theoretically the membership could say that Poland brought it on itself and refuse to vote in favor of either Article.  Which is why Poland would be very ill advised to do anything unilateral with the explicit approval of NATO's members.  Or simply do nothing until everybody agrees action is required.

Steve

Naturally. I would be in favour of some joint action sea-air with Finland and Balts to make life in Kaliningrad...harder, there would probably be some non-military ways to do it. But it's pointless anyway, since Kremlin does not care about its own citizens there or anywhere else, except several districts of Moscow itself.

There was already Russian KH-55 discovered several months after its fall, anyway.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/

There are some new developments lately in EW/ radar front here that are difficult to explain (perhaps themselves effect of captured muscovite elecronic devices), my vote  it could be connected to it. Overall, the incident is small one, compared to what is happening in Ukraine.

If anybody likes statistics:

24 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Yes, but there are also common features in these events - the lack of clear and decisive actions to ensure the security of one’s borders, both air and ground

And these actions would be... War with Russia? No, thanks, we have bad experiences here in the past of charging alone in helpless wars. NATO-level decisions; period. And if you mean about AA assets that even America can't provide, we would gladly accept some from AFU, if not the fact they are engaged in real war.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Naturally. I would be in favour of some joint action sea-air with Finland and Balts to make life in Kaliningrad...harder, there would probably be some non-military ways to do it. But it's pointless anyway, since Kremlin does not care about its own citizens there or anywhere else, except several districts of Moscow itself.

There was already Russian KH-55 discovered several months after its fall, anyway.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/military-object-found-polish-forest-was-russian-missile-media-2023-05-10/

There are some new developments lately in EW/ radar front here that are difficult to explain (perhaps themselves effect of captured muscovite elecronic devices), my vote  it could be connected to it. Overall, the incident is small one, compared to what is happening in Ukraine.

History shows us examples of direct military confrontation being ignored until the political will evolved to support broad military action.  The best example of this is WW2.  As I said, the US only got into the war with Germany because Hitler declared war on the US.  Before that, however, the US was suffering losses of personnel and ships to German U-Boats.  The public's opinion, up until then was, that this was just the cost of doing business in a war zone.  FDR failed to use this to shift the public to shift into a war mindset.  I don't remember what the losses were, but it included US Coast Guard vessels and personnel, who are the equivalent of US Navy.

Compare a US Coast Guard cutter sitting on the bottom of the ocean, along with lives lost, with a couple of errant drones in the woods.  That should provide some perspective.

Steve

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, OBJ said:

I don't think it's West bashing day. But I do think we all need to acknowledge:
1. NATO isn't ready to fight and doesn't want to fight until it's ready. Reading anything about the current state of the Bundeswehr is just very depressing.
2. WWII, US General Marshal, something like, 'Roosevelt taught us (US military leadership) a modern day democracy cannot fight a 30 years war,' so keeping a democracy focused on the best way to avoid getting directly engaged is to support those that are engaged, especially in a multi-threat environment, is hard.

Well #1 could be said about any nation or alliance on earth.  As to NATO/Russia match up:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293174/nato-russia-military-comparison/

And I am pretty sure this list has not been fully updated to account for Russian losses in this war.

If we are going to be acknowledging things well lets at least be consistent.  The Russia military is broken as far as great power projection and will remain so for some time to come.  Right now it cannot gain ground against a minor regional power who was not supposed to last 2 weeks let alone 2 years.  Their professional military are dead in fields and burnt out hulks all over Ukraine right now.  The have cobbled together a mixture of mercenaries and conscripts, along with Cold War era equipment and minefields from hell to hold onto where they can manage to.  The Russia economy is making weird belching sounds while it is both overheating and compressing.  The Russian people are a ticking time bomb as casualty rate climbs to a half-million and the Russian government now has to put out all those widow and VA cheques.

The West has got issues...lord knows that is true.  But this entire "We are weak and puny" while "Russia is strong and made of resolve" is a gross oversimplification and weak tea.  The West does have a sacrifice problem and it is a doozy.  In this dimension I am far more concerned about China than Russian competition however.  Russia is breaking itself on the worst idea it has had since 1905 and all we had to do was keep shoving money and last-gen technology into Ukraine to do it.  If we are collectively too dumb to understand this, then we deserve what happen next.  But I do not think we are.  I think we will reload and reset.  This war might be heading into endgame next year but there will be another game right after it.  

[sburke]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Shocking….considering you were likely walking thru a Haitian neighborhood.

https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/9018-ct16_TOR_EthnicOrigin_Haitian.pdf

lol!  I gotta say some of the best Jamaican beef patties I've had were in Toronto.