How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

During last two days Russians tried to advance further west between Stepove and Avdiivka coke plant. In this area there were fierce clashes and UKR troops could slighly pushed Russians back

Next examle of survivability of Bradley during a fight in Stepove - it got ATGM in front turret, likely gun was damaged, but the vehicle withdrew under its own power. 

 Assault groups of Russians were eliminated near Avdiivka by "Khorn group" drone unit. One Russian vehcile has blocked back doors of forward MTLB and trapped there inside Russian squad - they burned alive

 

As told oir soldiers, today Russзians renewed fierce assaults, after they were pushed back. Our guys say that is imagination Russian infantry is respowning after each failed assault. They are suffering enormous casualties, but with zombi perserverance attack again and again. As if they got next objective - to capture or at least to encircle Avdiivka up to 14th of December - Putin's briefing. Putin needs to say to nation something victorious. In Russian TG wives of Russian soldiers complain, Russian command throw forwar to trenches even avarage wounded soldiers, not to mention about light wounded. As if Russian generals believe if UKR troops defeated near Avdiivka, this will force Ukriane to start negotiations on Russian terms and West completely lost own illusions in Ukraine victory, so will not support Ukriane.    

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

29 minutes ago, Carolus said:

While the EU funds are blocked by Ruski Orban and the US funds are blocked by Ruski Maga, China will dump a literal boatload of hurt onto Ukraine.

China more and more involving in this war on Russian side. Except no barriers for drone ordering and electronic supply, except "ok" for N.Korea to give million shells, except 1500 ATVs, there was an information (RUMINT level from soldiers and on the level on GUR hints) in Krynky bridgehead area about month ago was destroyed experimental Chineese EW asset and Chineese instructor was badly wounded (it's claimed he died in hospital later) 

Newest Russian kamikadze drone "Scalpel" (cheaper 20 km-range analog of "Lancet") which is preparing to serial manifacturing is very similar to Chineese drones Foxtech Great Shark 330 and Skywalker X8, at least these Chineese companies already supply Russian manufacturer and developer with own spare parts, so manybe Russian drone will be in some different hull, but inside this still Chineese-develpped drone:   https://molfar.com/blog/dron-skalpel-kartonnyi-mulyazh-oglyad-kb-vostok-ta-deanon-kerivnyctva

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

The Republicans are essentially a revolutionary movement at this point and are going way beyond what was considered acceptable (i.e. politics ends at the waters edge) in the era of consensus. That said, as you note above, the border has been hurting Democrats politically while there hasn't been an easy way for Democrats to address it. If, perforce, the White House must accept a harsh border law to safeguard the global order, you can quite easily envisage a Dobbs situation where the politics starts running in the opposite direction. 

It is my hope that the WH can wrangle out a deal from the most irresponsible opposition in my lifetime in American politics. Ukraine aid is at best 50/50 right now. 

I disagree on the politics of giving the Republicans some of what they want on the border. Very few Democratic voters regard the border as THE issue, a lot of Republicans do. It is a little like the NRA/guns issue, a minority that will actually change their vote over an issue can beat a majority that doesn't consider it that important. Giving the Republicans the less crazy chunk of what they want would let the Democrats diffuse the border issue to some degree, and run on the issues that are actually good for them, Dobbs not least among them. 

The border is a complete mess now, it can be a completely mess in a different way for a few years without completely destroying the world order as it has stood since 1945. Abandoning Ukraine would be mistake that that wrecks the next century.

Edit: Now I have to figure out how to rephrase this for a letter to my Congressman and Senators.

Edited December 6, 2023 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

As told oir soldiers, today Russзians renewed fierce assaults, after they were pushed back. Our guys say that is imagination Russian infantry is respowning after each failed assault. They are suffering enormous casualties, but with zombi perserverance attack again and again. As if they got next objective - to capture or at least to encircle Avdiivka up to 14th of December - Putin's briefing. Putin needs to say to nation something victorious. In Russian TG wives of Russian soldiers complain, Russian command throw forwar to trenches even avarage wounded soldiers, not to mention about light wounded.

More evidence that Ukraine was correct to stand firm at Bakhmut.  The argument that retreat would have preserved Ukrainian lives is only true if Russia's tactics there were unique to the time/place/politics of Bakhmut.  Clearly, very clearly, this is not the case.  Russia attacks with "meat waves" because it a) desperately needs to gain ground and b) it doesn't know any other way to achieve it.  If Ukraine had withdrawn from Bakhmut, Russia would have just done the same thing elsewhere as it is doing to Avdiivka now.

In war, the attacker has a lot of say in what happens on the battlefield.  All the defender can do is shape the thinking of the attacker.  That doesn't work when the attacker doesn't think.

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

As if Russian generals believe if UKR troops defeated near Avdiivka, this will force Ukriane to start negotiations on Russian terms and West completely lost own illusions in Ukraine victory, so will not support Ukriane.    

It is not a flawed strategy.  For most of the last 1.5 years it has been a contest between Russia's will to sustain massive losses vs. Ukraine's ability (with Western support) to cause those casualties.  If Ukraine can not keep killing Russians, then the situation will likely change to favoring Russia in some significant way.

Steve

 

[Haiduk]

Likely successfull assasination by GUR/SBU

Deputy of LPR "parliament" Oleg Popov, tied with LPR intelligence was blew up in own car in Luhansk and later died in hospital. Though, some Russian milblogger claim this can be inner showdowns, because Popov belonged to group of Igor Kornet, former "minister of internal affairs" of LPR, who had a prob;lems woth Russian Investigatin Committee and was blown up and heavy wounded in May 2023 in Luhansk.

 

Also by unconfirmed information of several Russian TGs, former Ukrainian deputy Ilya Kiva, who fled to Russia, known with own crazy Zhyrinovskity-style statements, was found murdered today in Moscow oblst on territory of hotel. According one info he was shot dead, by other killed likely with stiletto blow to the temple   

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

One time I wanted to visit Emirates to see their high-tech paradise in the desert... Now UAE are died for me

 

I like tall skyscrapers as much as the next guy. When I visit any large city in North America I make a point of visiting the tallest skyscrapers. So far the U.S. Bank Tower in L.A. is my favorite.

But from what I heard about Dubai, while it is a place a lot of people go for work and business. It is kind of overrated as a vacation destination purely for pleasure.

Never went myself so I can't confirm but now that they are hosting a murdering war criminal, I will also never visit it.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia attacks with "meat waves" because it a) desperately needs to gain ground and b) it doesn't know any other way to achieve it.

Aftermath of fighting for one of tree-plant. Russain soldier from 21st motor-rifle brigade searches among dozen of bodies of Russian soldiers a guy with name Alik (diminutive from Aleksandr), but all of them are from 30th motor-rifle brigade and he can't find him. It seems Bradley worked with own air-burst shells.

Soldier of 30th brigade asks cameraman either he has some water, but he answers they are already eight days on positiions and almost empty of water, because no supply, so he can't give water to him. Soldier of 30th brigade then says to cameramam they already five days in combat.  

In comment on the screen Russian milblogger writes, there is no possibility to evacuate bodies even despite this position is under Russian control because hard terrain and continuous fire control of UKR troops of all approaches.

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I like tall skyscrapers as much as the next guy. When I visit any large city in North America I make a point of visiting the tallest skyscrapers. So far the U.S. Bank Tower in L.A. is my favorite.

But from what I heard about Dubai, while it is a place a lot of people go for work and business. It is kind of overrated as a vacation destination purely for pleasure.

Never went myself so I can't confirm but now that they are hosting a murdering war criminal, I will also never visit it.

The Gulf States are not our friend, they are our dealer. They are just nice enough that we don't actually get clean and tell them to go to bleep. Given that you can still buy a pickup truck that gets ten or twelve miles per gallon, they seem to have us pretty hooked. Throwing Putin a party just demonstrates this...

[Haiduk]

UKR GAZ-66 overcomes "rasputitsa" under new war-song hit "Вehind terricones, there behind fields"

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Aftermath of fighting for one of tree-plant. Russain soldier from 21st motor-rifle brigade searches among dozen of bodies of Russian soldiers a guy with name Alik (diminutive from Aleksandr), but all of them are from 30th motor-rifle brigade and he can't find him. It seems Bradley worked with own air-burst shells.

Soldier of 30th brigade asks cameraman either he has some water, but he answers they are already eight days on positiions and almost empty of water, because no supply, so he can't give water to him. Soldier of 30th brigade then says to cameramam they already five days in combat.  

In comment on the screen Russian milblogger writes, there is no possibility to evacuate bodies even despite this position is under Russian control because hard terrain and continuous fire control of UKR troops of all approaches

This video, on top of many others, has convinced me that one of the reasons Russia has managed to recover from its shortage of personal kit is because the "body armor" is fake or of exceptionally poor quality.  I've suspected this for some time now because there used to be plenty of videos of Russian soldiers taking multiple hits from grenades and still being functional.  And then there are videos of large numbers of "sleeping" Russian soldiers that are intact.  It seems to me if the body armor was up to normal Russian standards (which appeared to be decent, surprisingly!) there wouldn't be so many casualties in one place.

Compare the state of the bodies in the above video (unknown cause of death) with the ones from the Kherson convoy and (known cause of death).

Obviously this is just selective observations, but as I said... I've been wondering about this for a while now.

Steve

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This video, on top of many others, has convinced me that one of the reasons Russia has managed to recover from its shortage of personal kit is because the "body armor" is fake or of exceptionally poor quality.  I've suspected this for some time now because there used to be plenty of videos of Russian soldiers taking multiple hits from grenades and still being functional.  And then there are videos of large numbers of "sleeping" Russian soldiers that are intact.  It seems to me if the body armor was up to normal Russian standards (which appeared to be decent, surprisingly!) there wouldn't be so many casualties in one place.

Compare the state of the bodies in the above video (unknown cause of death) with the ones from the Kherson convoy and (known cause of death).

Obviously this is just selective observations, but as I said... I've been wondering about this for a while now.

Steve

I suppose energy of 25 mm HE airburst shell is much more than hand grenade, so usual body armor can't protect from this. UKR infantrymen advice to newcomers to buy light kevlar body armor, which better resists to fragments of grenades and small fragments of artillery shells, than usual steel plates, but worse against direct hit of bullets.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This video, on top of many others, has convinced me that one of the reasons Russia has managed to recover from its shortage of personal kit is because the "body armor" is fake or of exceptionally poor quality.  I've suspected this for some time now because there used to be plenty of videos of Russian soldiers taking multiple hits from grenades and still being functional.  And then there are videos of large numbers of "sleeping" Russian soldiers that are intact.  It seems to me if the body armor was up to normal Russian standards (which appeared to be decent, surprisingly!) there wouldn't be so many casualties in one place.

Compare the state of the bodies in the above video (unknown cause of death) with the ones from the Kherson convoy and (known cause of death).

Obviously this is just selective observations, but as I said... I've been wondering about this for a while now.

Steve

The body armor situation also shows some of China's ambivalence toward Russia. China is a huge supplier of the boron carbide used for ceramic plates, and it's apparently not showing up in Russia.

[Beleg85]

Whoopsy... traitor and one of possible Gaulaiters in original Russian plan for Ukraine, infamous Ilia Kyva, was found dead in Moscow.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/12/06/former-ukrainian-lawmaker-illia-kyva-found-dead-in-moscow-region

 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Beleg85

[Zeleban]

55 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Also by unconfirmed information of several Russian TGs, former Ukrainian deputy Ilya Kiva, who fled to Russia, known with own crazy Zhyrinovskity-style statements, was found murdered today in Moscow oblst on territory of hotel. According one info he was shot dead, by other killed likely with stiletto blow to the temple   

 

I must say that of all the Ukrainian traitors, I even feel a little sorry for this guy. Well, where can we get such a source of lulz and memes now? Only his last performance is worth it. Western viewers won't understand this. It would definitely be better if the SBU killed this guy last. 

He somehow reminded me of my former colleague. This guy was a member of the Ukrainian Olympic boxing team. Yes, he was a top-class athlete. But my God, how stupid he was. This is probably due to the fact that from the age of 5 he was hit on the head very hard almost every day. Almost every phrase he uttered could become a catchphrase. At first, we were even a little afraid to laugh out loud at his next statement. But over time, our office was filled with laughter more and more often. But this guy didn’t even seem to feel any trick and thought that he was the “life of the party.” Well he was

[Harmon Rabb]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Whoopsy... traitor and one of possible Gaulaiters in original Russian plan for Ukraine, infamous Ilia Kyva, was found dead in Moscow.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/12/06/former-ukrainian-lawmaker-illia-kyva-found-dead-in-moscow-region

 

Apparently His last post on Telegram before he died.

Define irony.

 

[Haiduk]

The pair of UKR helicopters near Stepove. Video of drone recon team of 116th mech.brigade

 

[Beleg85]

Another succesfull muscovite strike on Ukrainian artillery system; Bohdana or Ceasar hit by most probably a lancet.

 

[Zeleban]

13 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Not good, I really think Biden needs to give the Republicans three quarters of what they want on this. Not because I agree with any if it, but because the border being a mess a different way for a few years is not an existential issue. Ukraine IS an existential issue.

If the Republicans do get what they want on the border the entire business lobby will abandon them as soon as the labor shortage really bites, and then maybe we can have a real conversation.

It seems to me that now is the time that will show whether there is a place in the future for the “good old free world”. For this, only one factor is needed - unification. Will democrats and republicans, supporters of Poroshenko and Zelensky, nationalists and socialists be able to unite among themselves? Against a common opponent - authoritarian - corruption - globalists

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

I suppose energy of 25 mm HE airburst shell is much more than hand grenade, so usual body armor can't protect from this. UKR infantrymen advice to newcomers to buy light kevlar body armor, which better resists to fragments of grenades and small fragments of artillery shells, than usual steel plates, but worse against direct hit of bullets.

For sure there are different effects on body armor from different weapons.  I could be reading too much into this video, but as I said I've been suspecting poor quality body armor for a while now.  First, other videos show fairly large numbers of dead Russians in one place who seem to be fully armored.  Second, Russia had shortages of body armor in the past, getting some from Iran (in desert camouflage too!).  Third, this is Russia we're talking about   Body armor is time consuming and expensive to make.  If you don't think your Storm-Z guys are going to survive the first attack anyway, why put in the money giving them really good body armor?  Why not save it for your VDV/Spetsnaz guys?

Steve

[Zeleban]

Хорошо. Не знаю. Даже в, казалось бы, самой безвыходной ситуации, я чувствую себя вполне уверенно, во многом благодаря этим британским ребятам.

Я не знаю, почему именно этим ребятам из Великобритании выпала честь управлять этими массами европейцев, стремящихся к единству.

У нас уже есть общая идея, общее настроение, общая цель для общей борьбы. Так почему же мы так склонны к слабостям? Почему мы боимся нашей коллективной силы? Ведь мы способны победить любого, если только отбросим свой страх.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Zeleban

[Carolus]

Little bit of positive news from the industrial front.

https://www.merkur.de/wirtschaft/rheinmetall-ukraine-produktion-panzer-start-2024-fuchs-lynx-panther-zr-92707736.html

The defense company Rheinmetall stated that they consider Ukraine their best customer, not including the ammunition orders EU states placed for Ukraine this year.

Rheinmetall had orders worth 900 million Euros from Ukraine in 2022. In 2023, it was 2.5 billion Euros. The CEO expects this number to only go up for 2024.

Delivery of Lynx and Fuchs vehicles are supposed to start "earlier than expected" after manufacturing in Germany and will continue locally through the new factory that is being built in Western Ukraine.

Plans are going ahead well thanks to smooth collaboration with the government in Kyiv. German government signaled it will provide all necessary export permits without a hiccup.

Production of MBTs will start over the course of 2024. When the new production plant is properly set up, they expect ca. 400 MBTs of type "Panther" per year - article does not specify if these will go to the Ukrainan Army or are meant for export. In addition to hiring Ukrainian technicians and engineers, Rheinmetall will also train mechanics and maintenance personnel for the Ukrainian Army for all types of ordered vehicles locally.

When asked about safety concerns, Rheinmetall CEO answered the company will deploy its own air defense systems for the factory area, so he isn't worried.

Well.

NATO will not set foot in Ukraine, so Fritz and Ihor, the Rheinmetall janitors, will have to step up at the Dniepr. 

Who knows, if the West just creates a corporate merc society in Ukraine and then things become really weird.

Edited December 6, 2023 by Carolus

[Bulletpoint]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

 

Has Girkin now begun to call Russian soldiers "worms"?

[Zeleban]

 

I don't know, guys. I am very inspired by Portuguese fortified wines. Port wine. Madeira. In my opinion, this is the fault of troubled times. You drink and you get a little optimism. Therefore, I recommend stocking up on these stamps in case of a nuclear war. These wine brands are great for generating optimism

[Bearstronaut]

5 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Has Girkin now begun to call Russian soldiers "worms"?

That's not the actual Igor Girkin.

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Has Girkin now begun to call Russian soldiers "worms"?

This is not real Girkin This is UKR OSINT account, existing since 2014. Russians believe this account and NecroMancer666 both are administrated by UKR PsyOps unit. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Haiduk